BITO
ProShares Bitcoin ETF
stock NYSE ETF

I’ve not looked at the roll difference in bitcoin futures for a long time. But unlike oil and other commodities there isn’t a cost for storage. So historically the convexity on those contracts hasn’t made sense to me. The contracts should all be pretty flat in my view of that market. So BiTO has always suffered from needless contract roll slippage the same way GLD or the oil etf suffers.
So I would separate your thesis from BITO and focus on bitcoin specifically and find better ways to invest. Buying directly on Coinbase or something is better. But if you’re in an Ira or something, I’d probably go for something more like IBIT.
To answer the Bitcoin question. Over the next 5 years I think it is higher. But I think there will be a lot more pain before then. Market is extremely bearish sentiment right now. But I think rightfully so. I think we need a bigger washout. Strategy (Saylor’s stupid company) probably needs to blow up before we see the bottom this cycle. And when that day comes it will be GLORIOUS. My guess is he finds pricate buyers to firesale to, but BTC could end up trading 50% lower in a single day. I will buy another large amount when that happens. Until then, I’ll continue to buy in every 10% lower.

Is BITO a bargain or a value trap?

I’ve not looked at the roll difference in bitcoin futures for a long time. But unlike oil and other commodities there isn’t a cost for storage. So historically the convexity on those contracts hasn’t made sense to me. The contracts should all be pretty flat in my view of that market. So BiTO has always suffered from needless contract roll slippage the same way GLD or the oil etf suffers.
So I would separate your thesis from BITO and focus on bitcoin specifically and find better ways to invest. Buying directly on Coinbase or something is better. But if you’re in an Ira or something, I’d probably go for something more like IBIT.
To answer the Bitcoin question. Over the next 5 years I think it is higher. But I think there will be a lot more pain before then. Market is extremely bearish sentiment right now. But I think rightfully so. I think we need a bigger washout. Strategy (Saylor’s stupid company) probably needs to blow up before we see the bottom this cycle. And when that day comes it will be GLORIOUS. My guess is he finds pricate buyers to firesale to, but BTC could end up trading 50% lower in a single day. I will buy another large amount when that happens. Until then, I’ll continue to buy in every 10% lower.

Is BITO a bargain or a value trap?