GEO
The GEO Group, Inc.
stock NYSE

It could be, but I think market underestimates how much our govt will overpay for these beds. Not to mention the head of ice worked at GEO for a very very long time

Alright you beautiful degenerates, time to stop staring at charts for five minutes and listen up.
One of our three letter agencies needs beds. Not the ones you’re laying in as you read this post while debating what to full port today. They need facilities with bed capacity, and lots of it. At the moment, there are two publicly traded companies that have what they’re looking for.
Before we get into that, let’s run through the DD (grab your crayons and a piece of paper). Few months back, the agencies flirted with the idea of buying random warehouses and converting them into detention centers.
They quickly learned that these warehouses don’t come with plumbing, kitchens, cell blocks, or staff that know how to run the place. A few billion dollars and a few months later, after lawsuits, protests, a government shutdown, and the small Middle East problem, they recently decided to scrap the plan.
Back when news first broke about this warehouse plan, the same articles also frequently mentioned a plan to buy “turnkey facilities”. The kinds of facilities already fully built, staffed, and ready to operate at the turn of a key (you get it now?). And these same articles kept mentioning the two companies that have exactly that (and apparently were already in talks with the gov to sell them these facilities).
Corecivic (CXW) and Geo Group (GEO) have 20,000+ idle beds right now across many facilities. The government wants 10 facilities and we know they love to overpay for stuff. They also just recently passed the $70 billion reconciliation bill to fund certain agencies. Last I checked, the market caps of these prison companies are $3-4 billion. Do you smell what I smell? MONEY.
So here’s where it gets good. Ever since the bill passed in early June, these stocks have run 30-45%. And this is before any sort of actual news regarding the sale of these facilities.
A few days ago, Benchmark (an equity research firm) analyst Bill Sutherland held a call with CXW’s CEO and CFO. The result? He slapped an 80% probability on the sale of two facilities and upped his price target to $36 from $28 (and that’s using conservative pricing assumptions. That being said, we know there’s nothing conservative about how lackadaisical our leaders spend money.
https://www.investing.com/news/analyst-ratings/benchmark-raises-corecivic-stock-price-target-on-detention-demand-93CH-4762738
The same day (June 26), Northland (another equity research firm) increased their CXW price target from $32 to $40, and their GEO price target from $30 to $40.
CXW closed around $30.5 today and GEO around $29.5. If ol’ Bill at Northland is right (I’ve followed Bill for years and he gave me a 3000%er from June 2024 - May 2025), then we’ll be seeing $40 before you know it.
Last but not least, call volume on both stocks has been absolutely insane for weeks now. I’m talking 30:1 and 100:1 call:put volume, and tens of millions in calls expiring in the next couple months.
I’d imagine by now, all of the above should have the Robinhood crowd drawn in. Now as for you finance bros and quants, the boring part: both companies actually make money!
CXW’s last quarter earnings came in at $0.40 EPS vs $0.28 expected, and then they raised guidance for the year. GEO’s last quarter earnings were so good, the stock ripped 20% that day. EPS doubled year over year and came in at $0.29 vs $0.19 expected, and they also bumped their 2026 revenue guide.
Now here’s the even more boring part where I tell you about the risks. The government shutdown I mentioned earlier? That dropped the stocks over 20% back in January/February. A single policy headline can do the same thing. And on top of that, timing is genuinely anyone’s guess, which is a problem if you’re wanting to full port the shortest dated furthest OTM calls like me.
The play: shares if you enjoy sleeping and are happy with 50% returns. Aug/Sep calls slightly OTM if you’re a risk taker but also want sizable returns. The catalyst is a headline confirming the first sale.
TLDR: Government needs beds. Two companies have many beds. Analysts put 80% odds on the first sales and increased PTs over 30% higher than current prices.
NFA. I failed PE class in middle school and my broker has me on a watchlist.

He sold his GEO stock between $7 to $9. Currently it's at $29.55.

Thanks for the comprehensive reply! I do like the numbers, but the story is just really hard for me to understand. If the company had some story other than "converting SEO to GEO" I would be much more hopeful for the investment. You seem to factor in the potential of no growth, but to me it sounds like you're missing the potential for losing revenue.

You're looking at net income. *That* was negative in 2025 due to asset writedowns and nonoperating expenses.
Look at results from underlying operations, i.e. operating income and you'll see that it's actually positive. This tracks with historically positive free cash flows. However, last year's EBITDA of $42m was much higher than net operating cash flows (which is bad), but that is tempered by the fact the two have been in tandem with each other for three of the last five years.
Now, the debt. Yes, it's high. But total debt/ebitda is just shy above 3x (it's concerning but something to monitor, not something to think it could cripple the company). Total liabilities of $190m, nearly 2/3 of assets. However, operating profits are nearly 20% of this (good), but both ocf and fcf are half this (not so good), so we're mixed.
So you've got a bit of risk in solvency and in the ability/willingness to convert EBITDA to cash. Combined with the recent reduction in margins and sales growth, then you should demand a higher margin of safety. What a "good/high margin of safety" is, however, means differently to other people and that discussion is beyond the scope of this comment.
But what about value calculation? Well, I just ran a quick & easy GGM model on lower margins than reported. Growth, that's set to inflation: 3%. But, even if you assumed that competitors/alternatives will steal all future growth away (meaning growth of net operating profits after taxes is zero), it wouldn't affect the output much either.
Now talking qualitatives. You ask where the money comes from. GAMB is an SEO business. They make money from clicks on their website that lead to the online casinos/gambling websites they are affiliated with.
And yes, AI can disrupt that. An LLM user on Gemini or GPT or Copilot or whatever can simply ask what certain sites are best for certain games/regions/whatever and the bot will just fart out the direct links.
This means, to stay relevant, GAMB needs to figure out how to conduct GEO (generative engine optimization) so it can direct people to their website and/or incentivize people to visit them instead of going direct.
However, with the % of my portfolio that went into GAMB, I don't think I need to go into THAT level of detail. I would have to if I were to invest beyond a certain percentage. Even so, my 2nd lot's cost basis already bakes in a decent margin of safety despite the current paper loss. On other hand, my 1st lot was overvalued so *that* had to be sold and put elsewhere.

Alright you beautiful degenerates, time to stop staring at charts for five minutes and listen up.
One of our three letter agencies needs beds. Not the ones you’re laying in as you read this post while debating what to full port today. They need facilities with bed capacity, and lots of it. At the moment, there are two publicly traded companies that have what they’re looking for.
Before we get into that, let’s run through the DD (grab your crayons and a piece of paper). Few months back, the agencies flirted with the idea of buying random warehouses and converting them into detention centers.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2026/02/13/ice-detention-center-expansion/
They quickly learned that these warehouses don’t come with plumbing, kitchens, cell blocks, or staff that know how to run the place. A few billion dollars and a few months later, after lawsuits, protests, a government shutdown, and the small Middle East problem, they recently decided to scrap the plan. https://www.washingtonpost.com/immigration/2026/06/26/dhs-chief-acknowledges-missteps-1-billion-warehouse-purchases/
Back when news first broke about this warehouse plan, the same articles also frequently mentioned a plan to buy “turnkey facilities”. The kinds of facilities already fully built, staffed, and ready to operate at the turn of a key (you get it now?). And these same articles kept mentioning the two companies that have exactly that (and apparently were already in talks with the gov to sell them these facilities).
Corecivic ($CXW) and Geo Group ($GEO) have 20,000+ idle beds right now across many facilities. The government wants 10 facilities and we know they love to overpay for stuff. They also just recently passed the $70 billion reconciliation bill to fund certain agencies. Last I checked, the market caps of these prison companies are $3-4 billion. Do you smell what I smell? MONEY.
So here’s where it gets good. Ever since the bill passed in early June, these stocks have run 30-45%. And this is before any sort of actual news regarding the sale of these facilities.
A few days ago, Benchmark (an equity research firm) analyst Bill Sutherland held a call with CXW’s CEO and CFO. The result? He slapped an 80% probability on the sale of two facilities and upped his price target to $36 from $28 (and that’s using conservative pricing assumptions. That being said, we know there’s nothing conservative about how lackadaisical our leaders spend money.
https://www.investing.com/news/analyst-ratings/benchmark-raises-corecivic-stock-price-target-on-detention-demand-93CH-4762738
The same day (June 26), Northland (another equity research firm) increased their CXW price target from $32 to $40, and their GEO price target from $30 to $40.
CXW closed around $30.5 today and GEO around $29.5. If ol’ Bill at Northland is right (I’ve followed Bill for years and he gave me a 3000%er from June 2024 - May 2025), then we’ll be seeing $40 before you know it.
Last but not least, call volume on both stocks has been absolutely insane for weeks now. I’m talking 30:1 and 100:1 call:put volume, and tens of millions in calls expiring in the next couple months.
I’d imagine by now, all of the above should have the Robinhood crowd drawn in. Now as for you finance bros and quants, the boring part: both companies actually make money!
CXW’s last quarter earnings came in at $0.40 EPS vs $0.28 expected, and then they raised guidance for the year. GEO’s last quarter earnings were so good, the stock ripped 20% that day. EPS doubled year over year and came in at $0.29 vs $0.19 expected, and they also bumped their 2026 revenue guide.
If by now you’re not yelling at your phone saying WHAT SHOULD I FULL PORT, it may be due to the elephant in the room. Yes, they’re private prison companies and yes, they work with the gov. I’m not here to win the ethics debate and you’ll have your opinions on the trade and that’s totally fine. The market doesn’t give a damn. It doesn’t ask who you voted for before it gives you an absolute rocket. Congress already appropriated the money and I’m just trying to get a piece of the action. And this is it.
Now here’s the even more boring part where I tell you about the risks. The government shutdown I mentioned earlier? That nuked the stocks over 20% back in January/February. A single policy headline can do the same thing. And on top of that, timing is genuinely anyone’s guess, which is a problem if you’re wanting to full port the shortest dated furthest OTM calls like me.
The play: shares if you enjoy sleeping and are happy with 50% returns. Aug/Sep calls slightly OTM if you’re a risk taker but also want sizable returns. The catalyst is a headline confirming the first sale.
TLDR: Government needs beds. Two companies have many beds. Analysts put 80% odds on the first sales and increased PTs over 30% higher than current prices.
NFA. I failed PE class in middle school and my broker has me on a watchlist.

$CXW $GEO — ICE's warehouse plan failed. Plan B is buying private prisons. Benchmark PT upgraded to $36

$CXW $GEO — ICE's warehouse plan failed. Plan B is buying private prisons. Benchmark PT upgraded to $36

After a long time, it's actually above 10%. My living costs were 2758 EUR for June 2026, and I think I can go even lower. I'm planning some investments around the house, but probably not in the following few months. So it's a good time to build reserves before that.
My dividends were 395 EUR, but mostly from the annual payer XTB.WA. I'm 36 years old, my market loss in June was -6.28% (it's fine, it was +12% in May).
To disclose my portfolios, here are my positions:
Growth: (9868.HK,ADBE,ADYEN.AS,ALGN,ALSTI.PA,AMZN,BABA,BIDU,BYDDY,BYND,CDR.WA,CELH,CROX,CRSP,CRSR,CRWD,DDOG,DUOL,ENPH,FB,FSLY,FTCV,GOOG,GOOGL,GRE.MC,HIMS,HUYA,IBKR,ILMN,INPST.AS,INT.ST,KER.WA,LMND,META,MQ,NET,NFLX,NIO,NOW,OKTA,ONDO.L,OTGLY,PLTR,PLUG,PYPL,QLYS,SEDG,SMR,SPIR,SPOT,TDOC,TSLA,TTCF,TTD,U,UBER,UPST,VFF,VYGVF,WISE.L,XPEV,ZNGA)
Dividend portfolio: (AAPL,ABBV,ADM,AFSI,ALLY,ASML.AS,B4B.DE,BA,BAC,BBWI,BKNG,BMY,BNS,BNS.TO,BTI,CAH,CL,CMI,COST,CP.TO,CRM,CTL,CVS,D,DAL,DG,DIN,DIS,EIX,EOAN.DE,EV,EVO.ST,F,FDS,FF,FL,FLO,GEO,GILD,GIS,GPC,HBH.DE,HRL,IBM,IIPR,INTC,ITW,JNJ,JPM,KHC,KMB,KMI,KO,KR,LB,LUMN,M,MA,MMM,MO,MPW,MS,MSFT,NEE,NHI,NKE,NOW,O,OHI,ONL,PEP,PG,PM,POOL,QCOM,SBUX,SKT,SO,SPG,STOR,STX,T,TGT,TSM,UNP,UPS,V,VER.VI,VFC,VZ,WBA,WBD,WEC,XEL,XTB.WA)
**What portion of your expenses would be covered by dividends? Include Age pls :)**

This! I had HBO and Disney but ended up cancelling, I have Netflix and Prime...Prime is a default because of buying originally for next day delivery etc. I keep Netflix solely because it has offered me the wider range of content I want to watch...but I wouldn't keep it if the price keeps rising. There is a cut off that companies model in revenue generated vs. churn and Netflix will be aware of this. So they don't have a huge moat unless they diversify because the more they expand GEO wise, the more limited the opportunity they have in growing consumer base (unless they start adding a lot more content in smaller languages to cover new GEO's like Asia - more cost for limited returns), added on the more prices grow, the higher churn will increase.