PGEN
Precigen, Inc. Common Stock
stock NASDAQ

Well 88k only further strengthens my thesis, if that's the case I have to revise revenues downwards lol.
Oh don't get me wrong I've modeled the whole pipeline it still doesn't look good even after assuming all the pipeline is approved which well, that probability is well under 5%
Non of the drugs in the pipeline support even 50% of the market cap and I'm being optimistic.
Relative to the acquisition I don't see any big pharma paying big for a pipeline like INSM while there are literally 100s of better pipelines.
I've owned PGEN for a few weeks after doing my DD and modeling theit pipeline.
I still haven't sold a single share and won't even after another 100% increase, I see a lot of room to grow for PGEN.
I might sound bias because of my short position but I'm 100% being realistic here, if INSM traded at under 1B valuation I'd be their largest shareholder 🤣🤣🤣

*FULL disclosure before I present my thesis, I DO own a short position on INSM through LEAP puts.*
I have already priced in a 100% loss on my investment as I do with any of my biotech investments so I can peacefully sleep at night.
THESIS:
INSM is currently trading at a 27B valuation and it looks unstoppable, banks and analysts cant get enough of it, they keep rasing the PT, but this has never bothered me tbh, analysts are generally trash at forcasting biotech, as we can clearly see with JPM issuing a Neutral rating to PGEN who just got a life changing drug approved.
INSM recently got their Brensocatib drug approved, JPM said it will generate 7B in revenue by 2033 and this is so wrong it mind boggles me.
Their Brensocatib drug is targeted towards non-cystic fibrosis bronchiectasis, it's the first of a kind drug specifically targeted towards the disease, but there's a huge caveat, that other medical professionals will agree with me, Bronchiectasis are a VERY heterogenous disease, meaning it doesn't affect everyone equally, meaning some patients will have severe Bronchiectasis while others won't even notice.
Brensocatib is currently priced as wholesale at 185k a year (or that's the price I could find if anyone has a different price please tell me), while currently used therapies for severe Bronchiectasic patients like antibiotics, mucoactive agents, bronchodilators, have a price of under 5k a year.
Only the above informations would already make the avg analyst realize that Brensocatib isn't likely going to be able to compete with prices but it doesn't end here.
In their latest Phase 3 trials, the reduction in exacerbations for patients was around 21%, while current treatments achieve a reduction of over 40%.
You also have to take into account that brensocatib, from my understanding in biochemistry is a DPP1 inhibitor, DPP1 is essential in the activation of neutrophils, studies haven't shown Immune system alteration but I would bet my arm it will negatively affect the immune system in the long run.

My fair value after modeling what I bellieve Brensocatib and Arikayce will make the company over a 10 year period is under **3B market cap.**
In my estimates I have assumed no dilution (which is impossible as the company is diluting over 10% for years) and a 10% WACC (which is also quite conservative)

And to end the thesis, there's something fishy about the company, they haven't even strived for profitability while revenue is increasing and other companies in the sector have achieved it with much less revenue.
I honestly don't care about losing the money, I know my estimates are correct, I've been doing this for a while, I just wanted to warn people that might be interested in the company.

PGEN is definitely the play Monday. Simple as this. I’m pretty sure it’s gonna go up! If not I’m doubling down on my shares. 🤷🏻‍♂️Who else is already in on this? 

PGEN SRPT

Still worth investing in either PGEN or CGTX? Got ~700 bucks. Unsure of whether to just get some more of NRXP and MBOT, or even jump in BTAI. Unfortunately I miss the train at times because I am from downunder 😭 and I usually have skeptisism with biotech.

I’m long for both PGEN and ATYR. What do you think of ATYR? P3 is expected to come out in mid of Sept.

Who’s holding PGEN over the weekend?

How long is everyone holding $PGEN and $AERT??

PGEN sub 3 a move?

I mean any retail trader with no medical background is bound to lose ALL their money with biotech, just a matter of time.
I've got IONS on my watchlist I still haven't modeled it though because on paper it looks like I'm not likely to get any margin of safety, but again I haven't looked into it.
Biotech is a really good place to make literal millions if you know where to look, im not in the millions realm yet but I hopefully can get there in a few years. Most WS firms aren't looking into stocks like PGEN because there's not enough room for them to buy anything sizeable that's why you get the most alpha in these kinds of stocks.
I love the field because the avg Joe can't get into it and consistently make money. Therefore more money for me, and I also love to do the research behind because I update my medical knowledge.

Got out of PGEN but still in the other two.Wonder how many penny stocks ever achieve their target price?

PGEN holding. Possibly over the weekend if it doesn't squeeze before then.

If you got into PGEN early congrats…now do yourselves a favor and look into NRXP.

PGEN volume has surpassed float with ~20% short float. Potential squeeze incoming with enough momentum to sustain volumes

Are we thinking PGEN is a weekend hold? I'm always hesitant to stay in past Friday but I think this one has room to run.

I literally did the same thing. NVNI & CTM into PGEN & ENLV

Call me crazy but I ported all my NVNI, DFLI and CTM into PGEN, ENLV, CGTX and LVO.

what is PGEN and why’s it up 70% in a day …

FDA Zulassung bei PGEN 🧬

PGEN time for some green candles... only idiots would hold their shorts into the weekend...