IP
International Paper Co.
stock NYSE

Warpaint snagged Barry M (IP, stock, orderbook) out of admin for £1.4M—£15M rev brand w/ 1300+ shelf spots (Superdrug/Boots heavy). Cash-funded from £18M pile, no liabilities/mfg. Smart bolt-on for W7 value segment amid consumer crunch—£105M FY25 rev expected. Masterstroke if synergies hit.

Well, Anduril bought out IVAS from MSFT last year and our tech/IP is mysteriously wrapped up in there somewhere…and that’s all we know.

QS. All future tech innovations from here need better batteries. Their tech doesnt rely on Chinene dominant minerals. Almost 50% of the liquid float is short and the company is at its inflection point with a scalable production line and multi-stream revenue coming down the pipe. When the shorts cover this will be the next ASTS RKLB type runner IMO. The run will last for a decade while other players try and catch their tech. It's taken over a decade for them to figure this out and the timing for an investor couldn't be better. They have 4 of the top 10 Auto OEMs engaged and the team is full of veterans who know how to scale IP.

Dk butterfly was the placeholder name used for the estate of bbby for its bankruptcy after they sold off the bbby IP.
Or, if you ask the right people (bbbyq apes) it's the ashes from which the Phoenix of Teddy will inevitably rise.

Disclosure, I run a options analytics platform and the data we have, has metrics and a score (IP).
The platforms spread recommendation engine - generates potential money making spreads > 0.3 RR. For example AMD bull-call 402.5/405 57$/$202 spread cost.
The platform takes into account risk while recommending. Its user choice on how much risk/reward is worth it.
One of platforms objective is to make safe money from boring bets. This is money.
PS. Not a investment advice and AMD is just an example. AMD was in shock avoid/hedge phase last couple of days according to our charts. I trade SNDK but not AMD.

This looks very much like a total bs. Their IP expires soon (7 years left on BTrans), and they didn't seem to have demonstrated basically any benefits to their device. Extremely niche if anything.
https://www.eevblog.com/forum/projects/new-power-switch-opinions/

You know what is funniest about this... I was just about to post.. "Ok which one of you gave my IP to the market makers"?!

Both Sony and Nintendo are trading near their 52 week lows. They have solid products: Sony has their cameras, game systems, electronics, and god knows what else.
Nintendo has the switch 2, which certainly isn’t a cheap product but the platform has been a solid performer for years. They obviously have a ton of IP. I’m not a gamer these days but they must have another system in the pipeline.
Any of you hold either of these? I picked up some NTDOY today with earnings coming soon. Thinking of doing the same with SONY.
Disclosure: I hold 408 shares of NTDOY. No SONY at the time of this post.

While most of the market is focused on copper price swings and macro headlines, a different layer of the story is quietly developing underneath. The real constraint in copper isn’t just demand, it’s time. Bringing a new mine online typically takes 18 to 30 years, and that timeline hasn’t improved despite higher prices, better technology, or stronger demand signals. At the same time, global forecasts continue pointing toward multi-million tonne supply gaps by the mid-2030s, with demand expected to rise from roughly 28M tonnes today to over 40M tonnes by 2040.
That mismatch creates a structural tension. Supply cannot respond quickly, even when the market wants it to.
This is where companies like NovaRed (NRED) begin to matter in a different way.
NovaRed is still early-stage, with an enterprise value around \~$37M USD, which places it firmly at the exploration end of the spectrum. But what stands out is not just the size, it’s the positioning. The company controls a growing land package in British Columbia, including the Wilmac project and the Plume extension, where it has already secured approximately 2,062 hectares of tenure.
More importantly, NovaRed is not stuck in administrative limbo. For its 2026 program, the company has received “No Permit Required” authorization for geophysical surveys, including IP and AMT. In a sector where permitting delays can easily stretch into months or years, being able to move directly into data collection changes the tempo of execution.
That matters more than it seems.
Geophysics is not just a technical step, it’s the transition point between broad regional targeting and drill-ready definition. It’s the stage where a project begins to move from concept toward something testable. In practical terms, that means earlier data, earlier interpretation, and potentially earlier drilling decisions.
At the same time, the macro backdrop continues to build in a way that favors upstream exposure. AI-driven data centers, grid expansion, and electrification are all increasing copper intensity per unit of growth. A single large data center can require 100–500 MW of power capacity, and scaling that infrastructure globally implies a significant increase in copper usage across transmission, distribution, and backup systems.
None of that demand can be met without new discoveries.
NovaRed is not producing copper today, and that’s precisely the point. It sits at the beginning of the supply chain, where new deposits are identified and defined. With active work programs, permitted geophysics, and a land position in a known belt, it is positioned at the stage where optionality is created.
What makes this setup interesting is how the pieces align. You have a long supply timeline, rising structural demand, and a limited number of projects moving efficiently through early-stage exploration. That combination doesn’t immediately translate into price movement, but it does shape where attention eventually shifts.
The market often reacts late to supply constraints because they build slowly and resolve even slower. By the time deficits become obvious, the pipeline that could have addressed them is already fixed in place.
NovaRed exists in that earlier window.
And if there is one takeaway from the current copper landscape, it’s that future supply is decided long before it shows up in production numbers.

The third generation curse is likely to catch up to RIL.
They never had any technical edge or IP right advantage. There isn't substantial R&D despite having so much capital and connections at disposal.
The only edge they have ever had is crony capitalism. They're clearly lagging since sometime but now it's showing its signs.
They throw around words like tech and futurstic but at the end of the day, they're burning cash in a hope that the competition runs out of it first.
The real moat they have is doing it bigger and cheaper.
Their tech ventures/ acquisitions have often failed miserably and have only been burning refinery cash since inception.
One structural shift from fossil fuels can put a real dent to this empire. That's why they're trying so hard to diversify but clearly they don't have tech DNA or culture.
Interesting times ahead.

Copper investors keep watching the metal price, but one of the more interesting supply risks sits one step deeper in the chain: sulfuric acid.
Roughly one-fifth of global copper production uses SX-EW, a leaching process that depends on sulfuric acid. Sprott's framework ties about 4.8 million tonnes of global copper mine supply to acid availability. That becomes more important when countries upstream of the Strait of Hormuz account for about 49% of global sulfur trade, and sulfuric acid prices reportedly nearly doubled after the conflict began.
That changes how I look at copper jurisdictions. For acid-intensive projects, the question is not only whether the ore exists. The question is whether the mine can source, move, store, and price the chemical inputs needed to keep production reliable. In a stressed market, reagent logistics can start showing up in margins, schedules, and project valuation.
British Columbia has a cleaner regional angle here. Teck Trail / IRM in Trail, BC is one of the strongest local bulk-acid sources. Chemtrade's BC and Washington network adds regional support. Sherritt's Fort Saskatchewan operation in Alberta gives another western Canadian backup source. That gives BC a more workable domestic and regional reagent chain than projects exposed to longer sulfur or acid routes.
This is why BC copper-gold explorers deserve more attention in the current copper setup. The region already has mining history, power infrastructure, transport routes, and nearby industrial chemistry. If copper buyers start paying more attention to supply-chain resilience, western projects with local input access could earn a stronger valuation lens.
NоvaRed Mining, CSE: NRЕD and OTC: NRЕDF, fits that BC angle. It is a British Columbia mining explorer with the Wilmac copper-gold project, recently expanded to about 16,078 hectares. Plume is about 2,062.64 hectares, and the company has a 2026 IP/AMT geophysics path. In a copper market where inputs and logistics matter more, a BC explorer with regional supply-chain advantages is worth watching.
NFA, just following the copper supply-chain story.
Do you think copper investors are still underpricing jurisdictions with closer access to key mining inputs?

I would offer but my main IP is not able to day trade just yet, it's learning. I would offer the other but it's learning as well just on a different track. Either way you can check the main one at the website I set up. It's in beta testing so it needs users to teach it how to trade, free Pro and 30k credits. Just let me know and I'll send the website.

It is a BC copper-gold explorer, and I liked the regional angle. I also noticed the Wilmac project expansion, the Plume tenure, and the 2026 IP/AMT geophysics path. I am still researching it, so it is a watchlist name for me right now.

it still amazes me when you find a \~$17B company (IP) and only a few thousand people / institutions buying / selling LEAPs

https://preview.redd.it/25raeedqyjzg1.png?width=1122&format=png&auto=webp&s=18030a8ca99096d63f862f3b26b93550575224a7
Crude moves through the region, energy traders react, shipping risk gets priced in and most people stop there. The mining angle is less obvious, but it may end up being more important for copper than the first wave of headlines suggests.
Politico E&E News recently wrote about how the disruption is hitting sulfur, mining chemicals and fuel. The Middle East accounts for about one-third of global sulfur production and about half of seaborne sulfur trade. The article said traffic through Hormuz had been largely halted, with around 14 vessels carrying 600,000 tons of sulfur waiting to transit as of mid-April.
Sulfur feeds into sulfuric acid and sulfuric acid is a key input for parts of the copper industry.For acid-leach and SX-EW copper operations, sulfuric acid is part of the production process. If sulfur shipments get blocked, acid gets more expensive or diesel costs rise, the problem can move from shipping lanes into mine economics. Operators may face higher processing costs, tighter chemical availability and more stress around production schedules.
Politico also reported that QatarEnergy pushed its sulfur benchmark to $740 per metric ton, the highest level since 2013. The article pointed to possible downstream effects over the next six to nine months, which makes the story harder to dismiss as a short-term headline. That is the copper angle I think people are missing.Copper demand already has plenty of attention from AI data centers, grid upgrades, EVs, defense and electrification. The new issue is how fragile some parts of the supply chain look when a basic input like sulfur starts getting squeezed. Copper does not move from rock to cable by itself. It passes through chemicals, smelters, fuel markets, ports, water systems, power availability and local logistics.
Politico gave a few signs that operators are already dealing with this. The piece mentioned miners warning about higher sulfur and diesel costs, pressure on a copper-cobalt project in the eastern DRC, China banning sulfuric acid exports and companies like Freeport-McMoRan and Lynas Rare Earths pointing to higher sulfuric acid and fuel costs.That changes how I look at jurisdiction.
British Columbia is not sealed off from global cost pressure, but its copper-gold porphyry projects generally have a different profile than acid-heavy oxide leach operations. Many B.C. copper-gold porphyry systems are sulfide-based and processed through flotation, where sulfuric acid is not the main extraction reagent. There is also a more regional North American supply picture, with Trail, B.C., Washington and Fort Saskatchewan, Alberta showing up as relevant bulk-acid sources.
That does not make B.C. perfect. It does make the region look cleaner compared with projects more exposed to Hormuz-linked sulfur, imported acid, diesel shocks and long chemical supply routes. This is where NovaRed Mining becomes a more interesting name to follow. NovaRed is a Vancouver-based copper-gold explorer working in British Columbia. Its Wilmac Copper-Gold Project sits in the Quesnel porphyry belt, about 10 km west of Hudbay’s producing Copper Mountain Mine. The project covers 11,504 hectares, and the company has also secured the 2,062.64-hectare Plume tenure.
The Plume piece is important because it gives the company a clear fieldwork path. NovaRed says the planned combined 3D IP/AMT survey has already received “No Permit Required” authorization, lining it up for the 2026 field program.The Hormuz issue does not magically change the value of every copper explorer, and it does not make NovaRed a sulfur story. The connection is supply security. When copper starts getting hit by chemical inputs, shipping routes and fuel costs, western projects in established mining jurisdictions become easier to understand.
Politico noted that the disruption is exposing vulnerabilities for AI data centers and the U.S. military, and that replacing two major U.S. radars destroyed in Bahrain and Qatar would require more than 30,000 kilograms of copper. That is a small number compared with global copper demand, but it shows how copper keeps showing up in power, defense and infrastructure systems that cannot easily wait for perfect supply conditions.
So the Hormuz story is not only about oil. It is also a reminder that copper supply can get squeezed through inputs most investors barely think about.
It puts more attention on copper projects outside the most fragile trade routes. And it gives NRED a cleaner place in the discussion: a B.C. copper-gold explorer near an existing copper camp, with secured tenure and a defined 2026 technical program ahead.

I too view it as a commodity. Its not like they have some super unique IP that the rest of the world doesn't have access to. Multiple people in the space already and I gotta think the price of memory will lure some cheaper entrants into the market with some custom simpler memory solutions that may not be top of the line but will gobble up a lot of low demand data center business. Just like you have levels with GPU's, there will be more levels to DRAM than just transfer speeds and capacity.
Thats why I keep looking for an exit I just don't know when it is or where else to put my money. Buying shares at $100 and is now worth $650 is like the genius level play here. If I could do that with all my stocks I would quit.

*Processing img ff51ibyprjzg1...*
Most investors still hear “Strait of Hormuz” and think crude oil. That misses the more interesting part of the current setup. Politico E&E News, in its article “Straits of Hormuz: War gives mining sector whiplash,” makes clear that Hormuz is also becoming a mining chemicals and fuel bottleneck. The piece says the Middle East accounts for about one-third of global sulfur production and half of seaborne sulfur trade, that traffic through Hormuz has been largely halted, and that as of mid-April about 14 vessels carrying 600,000 tons of sulfur were waiting to transit. It also says QatarEnergy just pushed its sulfur benchmark to $740 per metric ton, the highest level since 2013, with downstream impacts expected over the next six to nine months.
That matters for copper because sulfuric acid is one of the market’s hidden pressure points. The broader copper research says roughly one-fifth of global copper production uses SX-EW, and about 4.8 million tonnes of global copper mine supply are structurally tied to sulfuric acid availability. When sulfur shipments jam up and sulfuric acid prices spike, the pressure does not stay in the chemical market. It moves straight into copper production costs, copper leaching schedules, and eventually copper supply reliability. That is why this story is bigger than a shipping headline. It is a direct challenge to parts of the copper supply chain.
The article also gives readers something more valuable than theory: proof that operators are already feeling it. It says miners are warning about rising sulfur and diesel costs, highlights direct pressure on a copper and cobalt project in the eastern DRC, says China has totally banned sulfuric acid exports, and notes that companies like Freeport-McMoRan and Lynas Rare Earths have already pointed to higher sulfuric acid and fuel costs. Even the article’s timeline matters. A six-to-nine-month downstream impact means this is not a one-day price scare. It is the kind of supply-chain squeeze that can start changing how the market values safer jurisdictions.
That is exactly where British Columbia starts to look stronger. B.C. does not live outside global metals pricing, but it does have a cleaner regional supply picture than operations heavily tied to Hormuz-linked sulfur and fuel flows. The regional sulfuric-acid note points to Trail, British Columbia as the clearest local bulk-acid source, with additional supply support from Washington and Fort Saskatchewan, Alberta. It also makes an important metallurgical distinction: many B.C. copper-gold porphyry projects are primarily sulfide ore processed by flotation, not acid-intensive SX-EW projects. That means sulfuric acid is often a secondary input rather than the core extraction reagent, which gives many B.C. copper stories a structurally cleaner exposure profile than oxide-leach operations elsewhere.
That tailwind applies directly to NovaRed Mining (CSE: NRED, OTCQB: NREDF). Politico’s article itself mentions NovaRed through adviser Phil Ehr, identifying the company as a Vancouver-based explorer for copper in British Columbia. On the ground, NovaRed’s Wilmac copper-gold project covers 11,504 hectares in the Quesnel porphyry belt, about 10 kilometres, or 6.2 miles, west of Hudbay’s producing Copper Mountain Mine. The company has also just secured the 2,062.64-hectare Plume tenure, and the planned combined 3D IP/AMT work there already has “No Permit Required” authorization. That gives NovaRed a rare combination in this market: a B.C. location, a known copper district, secured tenure, and an active 2026 field path while the market becomes more sensitive to geopolitical supply-chain fragility.
The article adds one more powerful layer. It says the disruption is also exposing vulnerabilities for AI data centers and the U.S. military, and notes that more than 30,000 kilograms of copper are needed just to replace two major U.S. radars destroyed in Bahrain and Qatar during the war. That shifts copper even further into the strategic-materials category. Once that happens, future western copper optionality earns more attention because the market starts caring more about secure supply chains, cleaner jurisdictions, and projects that can move ahead without getting trapped in the same chokepoints.
That is why this Hormuz story is quietly bullish for British Columbia and for NovaRed. It teaches the market that copper is not only exposed to mine supply. It is exposed to chemical inputs, shipping lanes, and energy logistics. British Columbia offers a cleaner frame inside that reality, and NovaRed sits directly in that frame as a district-scale B.C. copper-gold explorer with active catalysts already lined up.
Not advice.

No offense Yanks, but I think the greatest con job has been that we have tech that nobody else has and that nobody can get around our moat of IP that’s worth billions. The demand has just never really been there and there are certainly other places folks are going to get the tech they need. I’d love to be proven wrong. I’ve got about 35,000 reasons to keep believing…

Hi, this is my 8th grade research project on Qualcomm. *All figures based on FY2025 financials, Q2 FY2026 earnings/transcript, and TTM data. I know, I know "WSB is a casino - put the fries in the bag". But I need someone to rip thesis to shreds if I'm off.*
Qualcomm runs two segments:
* QCT (Qualcomm CDMA Technologies) - the chip division. Designs and sells Snapdragon SoCs for smartphones, automotive, IoT, and increasingly data center. 87% of revenue ($38.4B in FY2025).
* QTL (Qualcomm Technology Licensing) - licenses QCOM's patent portfolio to every manufacturer selling a 3G/4G/5G device on the planet. 13% of revenue ($5.6B) but prints \~72% EBIT margins with minimal capital requirements. It's essentially a toll booth on the global handset market.
# The Setup
QCOM trades at **17x forward earnings** in a semiconductor **peer group with a median closer to 35x**. That discount exists for two reasons:
1. China exposure. Market is worried about tomfoolery around export restrictions and tariffs while China represents \~46% of revenue.
|Region|Revenue FY2025|% Total|YoY|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|China|$20.3B|46%|\+14%|
|US|$10.5B|24%|\+9%|
|Korea|$9.5B|22%|\+19%|
2. Apple manufacturing and using its own modem chips for iPhone after using QCOM's since iPhone's release over disputes and lawsuits for the last decade that QCOM charged too much. [Link](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/after-painful-breakup-qualcomm-tries-to-replace-apple-with-ai/ar-AA22wbBd).
What the market has underpriced is that both headwinds are well-understood, the near-term pain is timing not structure, and two genuine growth vectors - automotive and data center - are accelerating simultaneously.
# Financial History: Recovery From a Brutal Cycle
|FY|Revenue|Net Income|FCF|EPS (GAAP)|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|2022|$44.2B|$12.9B|$6.8B|$11.37|
|2023|$35.8B|$7.2B|$9.8B|$6.42|
|2024|$39.0B|$10.1B|$11.2B|$8.97|
|2025|$44.3B|$5.5B\*|$12.8B|$5.01\*|
FY2023 was a post-COVID semiconductor hangover - smartphone demand collapsed, revenue fell 19%. The recovery has been clean: FY2025 revenue matched the FY2022 peak at $44B+, and FCF hit a record $12.8B.
The asterisk on FY2025 earnings is important. Reported net income of $5.5B dramatically understates the business. Operating income was $12.4B - the gap is a $6.1B one-time tax charge in Q4 FY2025 from IRS treatment of capitalized R&D expenses. Q2 FY2026 saw a mirror-image $5.7B non-cash tax benefit for the same reason. Both are excluded from non-GAAP. The operational business runs at roughly $12B annual operating profit and $12.8B FCF. Judge it on those.
# Margins Tell the Real Story
*On a TTM basis:*
|Metric|Value|
|:-|:-|
|Gross Margin|54.8%|
|Operating Margin|25.5%|
|Net Margin (GAAP)|22.3%|
|FCF Margin|18.0%|
|ROE|36.4%|
|ROA|17.4%|
55% gross margins and 36% ROE reflect a business with genuine pricing power - primarily from the licensing business and Snapdragon's dominant position in premium Android.
# The Cheapest Quality Name in Semis
|Metric|QCOM (TTM)|QCOM (Fwd)|Peer Median (Fwd)|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|PE|19.8x|17x|\~35x|
|EV/EBITDA|18.6x|\-|\~39x (TTM)|
|P/FCF|24.4x|\-|\~118x (TTM)|
|Div. Yield|1.0%|\-|\~0.3% (TTM)|
The forward PE of 17x uses consensus FY2026 EPS of $10.73 (non-GAAP, adjusted) against $182 share price. For context, NVDA trades at 28x forward on 75% expected revenue growth. ADI at 35x, TXN at 37x, AVGO at 38x - all growing modestly. AMD at 52x. MPWR at 66x
QCOM at 17x is being priced for a structurally impaired business. The data doesn't support that.
# The Two Known Headwinds (And Why They're Bounded)
# 1. Apple Modem Transition
Apple launched the iPhone 16e in early 2025 with its in-house modem, ending QCOM's monopoly on Apple silicon (and launched iPhone Air with new gen C1X modem). The company has a supply agreement through the current year at \~20% share of new iPhones. Beyond that, sell-side models put QCT product revenue from Apple at roughly $2B in FY2027 - down from a higher base but already widely reflected in consensus estimates. The QTL royalty stream (Apple pays to use QCOM's wireless patents regardless of whose modem is in the phone) is a separate negotiation and remains intact at a similar scale pending renegotiation.
The bottom line: the headwind is real, it's roughly $2-3B of QCT revenue at risk, and it's already in the estimate models.
# 2. China / Memory Dynamics
China is 46% of revenue - down from 62% in FY2023 but still the single biggest risk factor. The near-term pain, however, is more nuanced than simple tariff or share-loss fears.
AI data center demand for HBM memory is squeezing memory supply and raising prices. Chinese handset OEMs, facing higher component costs, are deliberately slowing builds and draining channel inventory rather than paying elevated memory prices. QCOM's chip shipments to China are significantly below actual consumer sell-through demand - the phones are still selling, OEMs are just not restocking.
Qualcomm has real-time visibility into this through its QTL licensing data (they see every phone that activates globally). Management during most recent earnings call think Q3 FY2026 as the inventory bottom with sequential growth returning in Q4. So what looks like Chinese demand dwindling very well could be a timing story and not a structural share-loss story.
# What's Actually Growing
# Automotive Is Underappreciated Compounding Machine
|Quarter|Auto Revenue|YoY Growth|
|:-|:-|:-|
|Q2 FY2025|$959M|\+59%|
|Q3 FY2025|$899M|\+68%|
|Q4 FY2025|$961M|\+61%|
|Q1 FY2026|$1.12B|\+61%|
|Q2 FY2026|$1.3B|\+38%|
Annualized run rate crossed $5B in Q2 FY2026 - management guided to exit FY2026 at $6B+. Q3 FY2026 automotive is guided to grow \~50% YoY, an acceleration despite the overall revenue headwinds.
The product transition from cockpit to full digital chassis (cockpit + connectivity + ADAS + autonomy) is what's driving this. Each generation-over-generation upgrade is the largest content-per-vehicle increase in QCOM's history - 3x CPU, 3x GPU, 12x NPU performance in Gen 5 vs Gen 4. BMW ADAS is in production. Bosch and Wave just announced partnerships. The automotive design win pipeline converts to revenue 2-4 years out, which means the orders being won today show up in FY2027-2028 revenue.
At $6B+ and growing 40-50%, automotive is approaching the size of QCOM's entire licensing business.
# IoT Is Getting an AI Tailwind
IoT grew 9% in Q2 FY2026, with industrial and consumer both contributing. The more interesting development: Qualcomm's IQ 10 platform (700 TOPS on-device AI, 18-core CPU) is generating design wins in robotics (Figure AI, Nura), industrial automation, and physical AI applications.
# The New Catalyst Is Data Center
**This is what the market isn't pricing yet**. From the Q2 FY2026 earnings call:
* Custom silicon engagement with a leading hyperscaler, initial shipments December 2026
* Management described it as margin accretive and a multi-generation engagement
* Strategy is both merchant silicon (selling to all comers) and custom ASIC (bespoke chips for specific hyperscalers)
* AlphaWave acquisition adds connectivity IP and custom ASIC execution capability
* Full roadmap reveal at Investor Day, June 24
The thesis is as AI inference scales, the data center disaggregates from monolithic GPU clusters into specialized compute like Google's TPUs or Amazon's Gravitron. Qualcomm's CPU architecture (which already leads on performance/watt in mobile, PC, and auto) translates directly to data center workloads with tight energy requirements. The company has spent years building this quietly. The December shipment is the first public proof point.
None of this is in consensus forward estimates. Analysts are modeling a furthering contracting QCOM (like -10% EPS and revenue growth over the next year). Any credible data center revenue is pure upside.
# Quietly Aggressive Share Buyback
In FY2025, Qualcomm returned $12.6B to shareholders on $12.8B of FCF - essentially all of it:
* $8.8B in buybacks (reducing share count from 1.14B toward \~1.07B)
* $3.8B in dividends (\~1% yield)
Q2 FY2026 alone saw $3.7B returned ($2.8B buybacks + $945M dividends), described as an "acceleration" of the capital return program. The Samsung multi-year deal (>70% Snapdragon share, reaffirmed for this year and next) gives management the revenue visibility to sustain this pace.
# Monte Carlo DCF: Scenario Analysis
*Starting from $12.8B base FCF, 1.072B shares, $195B Market Cap ($182 share price):*
|Scenario|Assumptions|P10 Mkt Cap|Median Mkt Cap|P90 Mkt Cap|P(Undervalued)|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|Bear|2% FCF growth, 11% WACC - China structural loss, no data center, Apple gone|$46B|$152B|$430B|40%|
|Base|8% growth, 10% WACC - inventory normalizes, auto grows, data center emerging|$76B|$223B|$565B|56%|
|Bull|15% growth, 9.5% WACC - data center contributes, agentic upgrade cycle, auto $10B+|$113B|$317B|$787B|72%|
|Transformative|22% growth, 9% WACC - platform company across auto + DC + edge AI + 6G|$133B|$455B|$1.29T|81%|
Two things stand out. First, the bear case downside is bounded - even in the worst modeled outcome, the median intrinsic value ($152B) is only 22% below today. A company producing $12.8B in FCF annually doesn't go to zero; the licensing business alone is worth $30-40B in a downside case. Second, the distribution is asymmetric - upside scenarios produce median outcomes 1.6x to 2.3x the current market cap, driven by FCF compounding in automotive and data center.
The bear scenario (40% probability it's undervalued) is the honest admission that risks are real of sustained China tariff escalation, memory-driven demand destruction that outlasts the inventory cycle, or data center execution failure and would all push toward that left tail.
# TL;DR
QCOM is a $195B market cap generating $12.8B in annual FCF - a 6.6% FCF yield - with its two largest headwinds (Apple, China inventory) well-understood, sized, and priced in. The business that remains after those headwinds is growing: automotive at $6B+ and accelerating, IoT expanding into physical AI, and a data center entry that isn't in anyone's model yet. 17x forward earnings against a peer group at 35x, you're being compensated to take on a headline risk that the management says is peaking. The June 24 Investor Day is the catalyst that closes the information gap on the data center opportunity. If QCOM is still trading at a 50% discount to peers in a year, I guess I'm wrong. Price Target $300-400 by end of 2027.
# Positions
$40K in shares @$190 and single 21Aug 220C for investor day
https://preview.redd.it/lawjds8dmjzg1.jpg?width=1206&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=081f3d01065b98e6b0a54a45a3533fa6a07cf53f

You underestimate their greed. Your data is more than just what is bought and sold. You give your name, address, phone number just to make an account. That's tied to location, IP address, and use within the app. That data is valuable. Even if you don't use an account to look at charts you're still giving them user traffic, they push you "news", and track your IP and location.