B
Barrick Mining Corporation
stock NYSE

About a year ago I embarked on a journey to find tradeable signals using BTC on-chain analytics in combination with other data sources like OI, funding rates, macro etc. As I didnt have historical access to the on-chain analytics I started by mining them myself and I was able to derive glassnode like analytics for the full history of BTC. However, when the actual research started for signals it didnt yield much. Below is an AI slop explaining what was done so far. An the question basically is: Should I keep looking or there is no tradeable signals on the daily/ intraday horizons?
**Raw chain → Postgres, UTXO-level.**
Full spent/unspent output tables with per-output creation height, spend height, age, and cost basis. Not an API wrapper — the UTXO set is reconstructed and maintained daily.
-
**Metrics computed from scratch:**
realized cap, MVRV, MVRV-Z, NUPL, SOPR, reserve risk, supply-in-profit, LTH/STH cohorts, HODL waves / RHODL, hot supply, miner revenue, lifespan bands, network activity aggregates, power-law divergence.
-
**~296 source metrics ingested**
across on-chain, derivatives (funding, OI, liquidations, basis), options (Deribit DVOL, IV surface, skew, term structure), macro (FRED liquidity, CME COT, stablecoin market caps), ETF flows, and attention/news feeds. Roughly 3,000 engineered features registered downstream.
### Methodology


Every experiment follows the same shape:
**finalize a pre-registration → commit it (doc-only, timestamped, before any computation runs) → implement the script and synthetic-only tests → run → write a verdict report → ABANDON-only forever.**
If a defect is found after the lock, I abandon the lock
*explicitly in the pre-reg*
, disclose the peek, and re-lock as v2 — the voided tests stay in the ledger and keep counting against multiplicity.


Plus: walk-forward / purged k-fold, BH-FDR multiplicity control counted cumulatively across the whole program, permutation falsification, circular block bootstrap for overlapping windows, realistic round-trip costs, and a written negatives ledger so I can't rediscover my own dead ends. 151 verdict reports, 152 test files, ~42 pre-registered experiment scripts.
### The funnel


| Stage | Count |
|---|---|
| Source metrics ingested | 296 |
| Features registered | ~3,000 |
| Univariate tests (Step 4) | 364,014 |
| Granger / CCF tests | 91,500 |
| Model evaluation jobs | 25,965 |
| Candidates promoted post-FDR | 5 |
| Passed falsification |
**0**
|
| Final ML scorecards → GO | 49 →
**0**
|
| Intraday horse-race combos | 96 → 9 gate survivors → 3 falsification →
**0 perturbation**
|
| Kronos zero-shot foundation model | independent null |
|
**Strategies that survived everything**
|
**2**
|


### The two survivors (2021–2026 OOS, 20 bps assumed RT)


| Metric | Buy & hold | 50-day MA |
**Markov + MA-50**
|
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe | 0.56 | 0.92 |
**1.08**
|
| Calmar | 0.22 | 0.58 |
**1.25**
|
| Max DD | −76.6% | −57.2% |
**−31.2%**
|
| Ann. return | +17.1% | +33.3% |
**+39.0%**
|
| % days invested | 100% | 52% |
**46%**
|


"Markov" here isn't ML. It's a 4D discrete state space (MVRV-Z × NUPL × trend × vol-regime); exposure is sized by that state's expanding-window historical 90-day mean forward return, gated by the MA-50. It cuts the 2022 bear from −49% (MA-50 alone) / −65% (B&H) to −16%, wins 25 of 27 one-at-a-time sensitivity configs, is cost-invariant from 10–50 bps, and survives permutation falsification on 7 of 8 horizons.

### The lanes (each isolated — no cross-imports, no shared artifacts)


| Lane | What it tests | Verdict |
|---|---|---|
| Mainline | Daily on-chain/derivs/macro/options ML pipeline, 31 steps | 49/49 NO-GO |
| PHASEB | Extended derivatives research | NO-GO directional |
| PHASED | Intraday 1h/4h/8h order flow, OI, liquidations | Fragile; risk overlay only |
| Kronos | Zero-shot foundation-model comparator | Independent null (confirms PHASED) |
| Markov | Cycle-state conditional distributions | **Survivor** |
| PHASEE | Generalizes Markov into a reusable conditional-distribution engine — 15 experiments (funding regimes, IV-RV, vol expansion, LTH supply waves, copper/gold, VRP gates) | Mixed; mostly null |
| PHASECO | Macro / central-bank liquidity families | G3 liquidity → BTC is real but *context only* — it loses to predicting zero OOS. The popular "0.75 liquidity overlay" is spurious: 100% of drift-matched random walks reach \|corr\| ≥ 0.75 |
| PHASEF | Forex retail-sentiment lead/lag | One PASS at 1h/4h/24h
| PHASEL | Regime-gated listing-fade short | Reproduced, TRUSTWORTHY, staged; gate currently closed |
| exp03x–04x | Cross-asset: multi-asset trend, wheels, XS momentum, VIX carry, CEF discounts, EDGAR insider clusters, earnings IV-crush, Polymarket | A handful of CANDIDATEs, one live options trial |

Has anyone here actually gotten a daily on-chain signal to survive walk-forward + falsification + realistic costs? Or is the null I found the correct answer and everyone publishing on-chain "signals" is showing in-sample fits?

If you did find signals... any pointers to where to look next? Or in general any pointers with the data I have at hand?

Thanks!

Are you a, B, C or D?

B o n d s, if shit does hit.the fan it was right infront of our eyes this time haha 

I call B.S. I think they were caught and this is the story they came up with to get them out of trouble. Did you see or talk to the person it was “accidentally” delivered to? My guess is not.

Tbh I read that shit 10 years ago, it's boomer slop. Shit like "put your vacation money in envelope A, put your rent money in envelope B, don't mix the envelopes", probably revolutionary at the time

Position from 80-95c, not sold a share & IM BACK. Last time I posted this was at the 200MA - stock ran 43% from there before earnings even printed, while plenty of people mocked the thesis in the comments. Same cycle is back. New numbers just landed.
# What Is HMR, Quick Recap for New Readers
Heidmar is a ship management and commercial platform, not a ship owner. It owns zero vessels. It manages fleets for owners and earns fees on voyage revenue and management contracts instead of owning the steel - no capex, no newbuild risk, no asset-value exposure when rates fall.
The calibre of clients matters here: Shell, BP, Chevron, Vitol, Saudi Aramco, Trafigura, Glencore. These are the largest energy and commodity traders on earth, and they've trusted Heidmar with their cargo for around 40 years. That's not a client list a startup or SPAC builds overnight. If you're a billionaire and you buy a ship, you have to go to Heidmar so you can even be KYC'd to work with anyone.
# Q2 2026 vs Q2 2025 - The Real Comparison
* Revenue: **$29.0M vs $9.6M** \- up **203% YoY**
* Net income (continuing ops): **$2.2M vs -$0.1M** \- swing to profit
* Adjusted net income: **$2.4M vs $0.5M** \- up **343%**
* Vessels chartered out: **6 vs 2** \- up 200%
* Cash: **$28.7M**, up **$10.1M** since December 2025
H1 2026 revenue was $47.3M vs $15.2M in H1 2025. H1 net income was $5.0M against a loss the year before. Operating cash flow from continuing operations was **$7.7M in H1 2026 vs a $3.2M outflow in H1 2025** \- that swing alone tells you this isn't the same company anymore.

**THE VALUATION ANOMALY - STILL HASN'T CLOSED**
Let me be blunt. Market cap sits around $73M. Cash on the balance sheet is $28.7M - close to 40% of the entire market cap. Back out the cash and you are paying roughly $44M for the operating business. That is not a typo.
On the full market cap, HMR trades around 7x forward earnings. But that's not the real number - that $28.7M in cash isn't dead weight, it's debt-free capital already being deployed into accretive acquisitions like Q-Shipping. Strip it out and price the operating business on its own merits, and HMR trades at roughly 4x forward earnings for a company growing revenue 203% YoY with two straight profitable quarters.
HMR isn't a shipping company - it owns no vessels and earns fees, so it shouldn't be priced like one. Comparable asset-light logistics and platform businesses typically trade at 10–25x forward earnings. Apply 10x to HMR's ex-cash earnings and add the cash back, and implied fair value lands north of $1.50 a share. Apply 25x - the multiple stronger logistics platforms actually command - and you're looking at $3.80–$4+. Even the low end is a meaningful re-rate from here, and none of it requires another dollar of revenue growth - just the market correctly re-classifying what kind of business this actually is.
The ceiling on this isn't the current share price. The ceiling is dictated by earnings growth compounding into a re-rating toward the correct comp set - and that process has barely started.
# The Earnings Dump - Same Playbook, Wrong Company Now - Opportunity for us
Stock dropped roughly 10% after this print. Historically, dumping HMR on earnings worked because the company was unprofitable and speculative. That doesn't apply anymore. This is now two consecutive profitable quarters, 203% revenue growth, and a cash pile growing every quarter. Sellers running the old playbook aren't pricing in the new fundamentals - they're trading the ticker's history, not its balance sheet.
**Cash Pile Is Now Proving Out Acquisitions**
This was speculation before. It isn't anymore. Cash grew to $28.7M and the company used a fraction of it to acquire Q-Shipping B.V. for about $0.2M, adding nine vessels and entering the Netherlands, Türkiye, and a crewing base in Ukraine. That deal wasn't just nine vessels - it's a foothold and relationships in new markets that open the door to further bolt-on deals. With this much cash sitting idle and management already proving they'll deploy it cheaply and accretively, more acquisitions look inevitable.

**The Only Arguable Negative (which isn’t) - G&A Increase**
Net income dipped from $2.8M in Q1 to $2.2M in Q2 despite revenue jumping 58%. The driver was G&A rising to $5.6M, largely from $1.8M in cash bonuses versus $1.4M a year ago. This is the closest thing to a real knock on the quarter, so let's address it head-on: this is a team that took a company from consistent losses to two straight profitable quarters, delivered 203% YoY revenue growth, and closed an accretive acquisition - all in the same stretch. Paying out performance bonuses for that kind of turnaround isn't a red flag, it's exactly what you want. Employees delivering results like this should be incentivized to keep delivering them. The alternative - a team with no skin in the outcome - is the actual red flag.
# Hormuz Is Just a Bonus - The Bigger Picture Hasn't Even Hit the Numbers Yet
People keep treating Hormuz like the whole thesis. It's not - it's the accelerant. Look at what's actually happening right now: Gaza, Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, the Houthis in the Red Sea, Russia-Ukraine. This is about as much simultaneous global shipping disruption as markets have seen in years, and almost none of it has fully hit the numbers yet.
Every one of those flashpoints forces the same response: diversify supply routes. Asia and Japan reportedly relied on the Middle East for something like 90% of their oil imports historically - that kind of concentration doesn't survive this environment. Oil prices are already creeping back up, and there are no meaningful strategic stockpile reserves left to cushion further disruption. Longer routes, more tonnage per mile, more voyages, more fees for HMR. This is upside that hasn't been priced in yet, layered on top of a business that already earns in any rate environment.
# The Insider Signal
CEO Pankaj Khanna owns roughly 44% of the company personally - one of the largest founder stakes on Nasdaq for a company this size. Zero insider sales on record, only buys. - one of the largest founder stakes on Nasdaq for a company this size. 
**40 Years. Shell. BP. Aramco.**
Shell. BP. Chevron. Vitol. Saudi Aramco. Trafigura. Glencore. The largest energy traders on earth trust Heidmar with their cargo. That took 40 years to build. Eight global hubs now, following the Q-Shipping deal: Athens, London, Singapore, Hong Kong, Chennai, Rotterdam, Odessa, Istanbul.
This is not a SPAC. Not a shell. Not a startup that got lucky one quarter.
# Season Hasn't Even Started
Q2 already delivered this growth. Management flagged rates staying firm or strengthening into Q4 on seasonal winter demand - and that's before fully accounting for the disruption above. The strongest seasonal window for tankers is still ahead.
# Checklist
* Revenue +203% YoY, +58% QoQ
* Net income swung from -$0.1M to $2.2M (Q2), two straight profitable quarters
* Adjusted net income +343% YoY
* Operating cash flow +$7.7M in H1 2026 vs -$3.2M outflow in H1 2025
* Cash pile $28.7M, up $10.1M since year-end 2025
* Market cap trading below annual revenue
* Zero debt, zero vessels owned - pure fee-based platform 
* 55%+ margins support a 10-25x platform multiple, not the current \~7x 
* G&A increase driven by performance bonuses tied to turnaround, not cost blowout
* Q-Shipping acquisition: $0.2M cash, 9 vessels, new markets, new deal pipeline
* Cash pile now proving acquisitions are inevitable, not speculative
* Fleet now \~60 vessels commercial / \~20 technical managed
* Nasdaq compliance regained June 2, 2026
* CEO owns \~44% personally, zero sales on record, tight float setup
* Clients include Shell, BP, Chevron, Vitol, Saudi Aramco, Trafigura, Glencore
* Multiple live geopolitical flashpoints (Hormuz, Red Sea, Russia-Ukraine) not yet fully reflected in numbers
* Shipping's strongest seasonal window (Q4) still ahead
* Last post at 200MA ran 43% before earnings even printed
# How I'm Playing It
Same position, same conviction. The dump on this print looks like traders running an old playbook against a company that's fundamentally changed. Not selling, a buying opportunity.
What red flag am I still missing? Drop it below.
Not financial advice. Do your own due diligence. I hold a position in $HMR from 80–95c.
COMPANY TRAILER FOUND HERE - [https://youtu.be/Bl1rIe\_JxwI?si=qDaPH7PRRdRqB9FY](https://youtu.be/Bl1rIe_JxwI?si=qDaPH7PRRdRqB9FY) 

LISTEN!! IM NOT TALKING B.S
REVOLUT HAVE STOLEN THOUSANDS FROM ME BY INVESTING MY MONEY (UNAUTHORISED FEATURE AND UNAUTHORISED CASH MOVED/TAKEN & I CAN & WILL PROVE THIS!
Exercised my rights freedom of my information act 2016 ..."4 TIMES".
HAVE IGNORED ALL REQUESTS MADE!
I CAN/COULD GO INTO THIS WITH MORE DETAILS?
BE ASSURED YOUR MONIES ISNT SAFE HENCE "YOU CANNOT EVEN PICK UP THE PHONE TO SPEAK TO THEM!"
They ONLY do a telephone request by online chat HOWEVER if its something that they prefer not to discuss with you, that call will NEVER happen. If you b.s them to receive a call the very moment you bring up what you wish to discuss they WILL do what they did to me..."I AM SORRY BUT IM NOT WILLING TO DISCUSS THAT MATTER WITH YOU AND SO THE DECISION TO END THIS CHAT WITH YOU HAS NOW BEEN MADE AND WILL WISH YOU HAVE A GOOD DAY!"
PLEASE FOLLOW/ADD whatever is needed to continue with my updates regarding SKANKAOLUT.  I AM COMING FOR YOU AND YOU KNOW I AM!

I don't know. B&M stores have made a lot of money for decades buying back of spot 3-10% and selling over spot the same (depending on the coin). I consider 25% back greed, not risk. I think enough unknowledgeable people sell at that that it's worth it for them, regardless of what kind of relationship they make or not. But it's fine. They're allowed to run their business the way they want.

Ich fürchte ein Zugriff von unterwegs ohne Zugriff von unterwegs ist nicht möglich. Ein paar Ideen:
\- selbst rechnen über die gemeldeten Abbuchungen
\- Telefonbanking falls verfügbar
\- Laptop / Tablet mitnehmen wenn richtiger PC nicht verfügbar und Banking App auf dem Telefon abgelehnt wird
\- Entscheidung, keine Banking App zu nutzen überdenken und entsprechend ein moderneres Gerät kaufen, welches dies auch unterstützt und entsprechend in Zukunft einige Jahre mit Updates versorgt wird (Also keins aus dem Discounter)
\- Entsprechend hohes Limit setzen, dass man sich während dem Urlaub keine Gedanken drum machen muss, die meisten Banken vergeben ca. 2-3 Netto Monatsgehälter bei entsprechender Bonität und nach dem Urlaub überraschen lassen.
\- Eine Debitkarte z.B. von Trade Republic oder Revolut nutzen, muss man vorher zwar aufladen, das Guthaben kann man aber per App einsehen. Wahrscheinlich wird die App aber nicht auf dem alten Gerät laufen.

Produkt A: 50 EUR + 100 EUR "Geld aus dem nichts", durch Kosten effektiv 3% Zinsen p.a.
Produkt B: 50 EUR und nix "Gratis", aber 6% Zinsen p.a.
Beides 50 Jahre Laufzeit.
Was ist das bessere Produkt?
Pure Mathematik.

SCOTTY B IS SUCH A GIGACHAD 🫴

The reason LEAPS are less risky is because there is time to survive drawdowns, and good companies tend to increase in value over time. So A) you have loads of time left and B) that is not a profitable company ffs

Ich finde es mutig und stark, dass Du Dich dem Problem stellst - und ich wünsche Dir von Herzen das allerbeste!
Eine Frage hätte ich, die mir bei dem Thema - insbesondere Automatenspielsucht - immer wieder mal in den Kopf kam.
Vorerst die Frage:
Spielst Du im Casino vor allem die klassischen Spiele wie Roulette, Blackjack etc.?
Oder eher an Automaten?
Falls letztes, dazu meine Frage:
Wäre es bei einer Spielsucht nicht vielleicht möglich, dass sich der Spielsüchtige so einen Automaten kauft und sich ins Wohnzimmer stellt, sozusagen als schadenverringerndes "Substitut"?
Du könntest dann jederzeit am eigenen Automaten spielen, ohne Dich dabei finanziell ruinieren zu müssen.
Oder stellt sich der Kick nur dann ein, wenn es Automaten z.B. im Casino sind und wirklich auch ein realer finanzieller Verlust / Gewinn im Raum stehen könnte?
Ich hoffe, es ist ok, dass ich Dich das frage.

Ein Bausparvertrag ist immer eine Zinsdifferenzwette. Du gibst heute Rendite in der Anlage auf und zahlst eine Abschlussgebühr sowie jährliche Kontoführungsgebühren.
Im Gegenzug wird dir ein bestimmter Zinssatz zugesichert.
Wenn der zukünftige Zins so hoch liegt, dass die Zinsdifferenz zum vertraglich abgesicherten Zins die Mindereinnahmen sowie die Abschlusskosten ausgleichen kann ist es eine gute Wette, sonst nicht.
Du kannst wahlweise das ganze Budget "hedgen" oder aber auch nur einen Teil davon.
In jedem Fall solltest du zuallererst Eigenkapital aufbauen. Dazu kannst du ETF nutzen, wenn der Anlagehorizont entsprechend lang ist, ansonsten sind langweilige Sachen wie Tages- oder Festgeld/Anleihen besser geeignet.
Oftmals wird dir auch beim Kreditabschluss ein Bausparvertrag angedreht um die Restschuld abzulösen, teilweise auch verbunden mit tilgungslosen Darlehen, das ist in den allermeisten Fällen aber wirtschaftlich zu deinem Nachteil.
Die KfW Förderprogramme sind jeweils individuell zu prüfen, da sie teilweise mit Anforderungen einher gehen die zu einem erhöhten Aufwand führen können z.B. Umweltgutachter die dann wiederum die Einsparungen im negativen Sinne ausgleichen.
Eine Kombination aus KfW und klassischer Finanzierung per Annuitäte Darlehen oder auch zusätzlich mit Bausparvertrag sind aber darstellbar.

Geht doch vielmehr um Länder wie Deutschland, die die Inflation drücken. Das müssen andere Länder auffangen indem sie oberhalb 2 % liegen. Die EZB interessiert sich nicht dafür, dass ihre Ziele z.B. von Deutschland unterminiert werden...was halt dumm ist wenn sie das toleriert.

It looks like you shorted at the Doji break and placed your stop above it? If that's the case then price went at least 2R even 2.5R, I would have moved to B/E at 1.9R to protect myself. No one can tell you why something happened in these markets but you fucked up in which you didn't protect yourself by moving to B/E. Some people move at 1R, some like 1.5R, I do 1.9R because I target 5R gains so I like to give it enough room to breathe.

Ich sage niemanden, was er/sie kaufen soll. Stattdessen erkläre ich Basics zum Thema Aktien und ETFs. Und worauf man beim Kauf achten sollte und wie man dann Käufe im Depot tätigt bzw. Altlasten wieder loswird.
Mir ist es wichtig, dass ich nichts entscheide und an nichts Schuld bin. Habe z.B. einer Freundin geholfen, wo es um mehrere 100k ging und sie einen Instagram-Berater hatte, der ihr aktive Fonds und irgendeine Rentenversicherung aufgeschwatzt hatte. Da ich mit der Freundin nun keinen Kontakt mehr habe, bin ich froh, dass sie nun hoffentlich auch alleine klar kommt bzw. zumindest mal ich verantwortlich für ihr Depot bin.

Am 12. und 13. Oktober wird mündlich vor dem BVerfG über die Erbschaftsteuer verhandelt. Danach können wir ja mal schauen, ob die Erbschaftsteuer einer wirklichen Reform unterworfen wird.
Meine 2cents dazu, der genau solche Konstrukte berät:
1. Der Erlass der Steuer ist an sehr hohe Hürden gebunden, die bekommt man nicht einfach so und betrifft auch nur begünstigtes Vermögen. Unter begünstigtes Vermögen fällt z.B. kein Cash, keine Aktien oder andere Anteile, sofern nicht eine Beteiligungshöhe von mind. 25% erreicht wird (was bei Streubesitz nie der Fall ist). 2. Man darf kein eigenes Vermögen haben, sondern müsste die Steuer aus dem begünstigten Vermögen - sprich Teile der Firma verkaufen - begleichen. Verkauft man innerhalb von 7 Jahren entfällt der Erlass rückwirkend weg.
Und ja, wenn man das so liest, dann hört sich das alles so schwer unfair an, aber es gibt teilweise Firmen, die auf dem Papier einen Wert haben von XXX Millionen, aber dieser Wert i) niemals am Markt in Form eines Preises erzielbar wäre und ii) die dahinterstehenden Unternehmerfamilien oftmals nicht im Luxus baden, sondern jeden Cent reinvestieren (und daher tatsächlich keine Mittel hätten, um die Steuer zu bezahlen). Wir sollten da weniger die Neidkultur fördern, sondern uns lieber mal darauf konzentrieren dieses olle Land nach vorne zu bringen (und da macht der Mittelstand tatsächlich mehr als viele mitbekommen). Mehr Steuern helfen da auch nicht mehr in der Zukunft.

Moin,
also mit Kurswert und Nominalwert bist du schon fast dran.
Aber die Rendite kommt durch den Kupon und den Kurswert zusammen.
Sprich die Anleihe kann einen Kupon von 0% haben, weil sie Inder Nullzinsphase ausgeben wurde. Du kannst aber trotzdem z.B. 4% Rendite haben, weil du sie unter dem Nominalwert kaufst.
Und warum kriegst du sie unter dem Nominalwert? Z.B. weil sie nur noch zwei Jahre läuft und neu ausgegebene zwei jährige Staatsanleihen entsprechende Zinsen zahlen. Dann wird die Zinsdifferenz über den Kurs ausgeglichen.
Funktioniert nicht perfekt, aber erklärt auch gut warum kurzlaugende Staatsanleihen praktisch nicht schwanken (da bei wenigen Monaten auch eine hohe Zinsdifferenz, wenig ausmacht) und langlaufende Staatsanleihen so stark auf Zinsänderungen reagieren (zehn Jahre lang beispielsweise 2% weniger Zinsen auszugleichen ist halt teuer).

I'm just doing some smooth brained math but a $10 B company with 0.45 B shares would make each share worth about $22.50.....
This doesn't factor in the value of the Legacy Retail Business