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I believe there will be a large scale collapse at some point worse than 2008. But I did run this through Gemini Pro to see what it said.
1. Accuracy of the Claims
The post mixes factual financial concepts with highly exaggerated or misleading interpretations to create a "doomsday" narrative.
• Claim: "The 'A/B Note' Fraud"
• The Concept: The post describes banks splitting distressed commercial real estate (CRE) loans into an "A Note" (the amount the property is currently worth) and a "B Note" (a "hope note" for the difference, often contingent on future recovery).
• Accuracy: Misleading. This is a standard, legal restructuring strategy (often part of a Troubled Debt Restructuring or TDR) used to resolve distressed loans. It is not "fraud." It allows a bank to keep a performing asset (Note A) on the books while managing the loss on the non-performing portion (Note B). Banks are required to follow GAAP accounting rules, which typically require recognizing impairment or setting aside reserves for the B Note. Calling it "fraud" to "avoid a write-down" is factually incorrect; it is a tool to mitigate total loss, not hide it illegally.
• Claim: "The Silent Liquidity Run (FHLB)" & "Super Lien"
• The Concept: The Federal Home Loan Banks (FHLB) have a "super lien" position, meaning if a bank fails, the FHLB gets paid back from the bank's assets before the FDIC.
• Accuracy: True, but the conclusion is misleading. The FHLB does have priority over the FDIC. However, the claim that this leaves depositors "holding the empty bag" is false for the vast majority of people.
• Reality: The FDIC protects insured depositors (up to $250,000, and often more in systemic failures). If the FHLB takes the collateral, the loss falls on the FDIC Insurance Fund (and ultimately the banking industry/taxpayers), not directly on the insured depositor. Your money in an insured account remains safe unless the entire US government collapses.
• Claim: "The 'SASB' Cliff"
• The Concept: Single-Asset Single-Borrower (SASB) bonds, specifically backed by office buildings, are seeing high delinquency rates (claimed >12%).
• Accuracy: Mostly Accurate. The commercial real estate sector, particularly office space, is under severe stress in 2025-2026 due to high interest rates and remote work. Delinquency rates for SASB office loans have indeed risen significantly (data places them around 8-10%+). This is a known systemic risk, though the "cliff" metaphor implies a sudden drop rather than the slow erosion currently happening.
• Claim: "Held-to-Maturity (HTM) Accounting hides losses"
• The Concept: Banks classify assets as "Held-to-Maturity" to avoid marking them to market value, hiding "unrealized losses."
• Accuracy: True context, exaggerated impact. HTM accounting allows banks to ignore changes in market value caused by interest rates (as seen with SVB in 2023). However, it does not allow banks to ignore credit defaults. If a loan in HTM stops paying (default), the bank must recognize the credit loss. They cannot legally pretend a defaulted building is worth full value forever.
2. Potential Outcome If This Happens
If the events described in the post (a rapid, systemic realization of CRE losses) were to occur as predicted:
• Bank Runs: The most immediate danger of such a post going viral is a psychological bank run. If enough people believe "banks will collapse soon" and withdraw their cash, they can cause solvent banks to fail due to a liquidity crisis (a self-fulfilling prophecy).
• Regional Bank Failures: We would likely see a wave of failures among small-to-mid-sized regional banks that are heavily exposed to Commercial Real Estate (CRE). The "too big to fail" banks (JPMorgan, etc.) are generally diversified enough to survive.
• Credit Crunch: Banks would stop lending to preserve capital, leading to a "credit crunch." This would hurt small businesses and likely tip the US economy into a sharp recession.
• Regulatory Intervention: The FDIC and Federal Reserve would almost certainly step in with emergency measures (similar to March 2023) to guarantee deposits and provide liquidity to prevent a total collapse.
Summary Verdict
The post is a classic "Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt" (FUD) analysis.
It takes real data (CRE stress, FHLB priority) and spins it into a worst-case conspiracy theory. While the risks in Commercial Real Estate are real and some regional banks may indeed fail in 2026, the claim of a "fraudulent" system-wide collapse where depositors lose everything is highly improbable and ignores the mechanisms (FDIC, Fed backstops) designed to prevent exactly that scenario.
Outcome: High volatility in bank stocks, potential panic among retail investors, but likely no loss of insured deposits for the average person.

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