TROW
T Rowe Price Group Inc
stock NASDAQ

Age 44, dedicated to investing portions of my $ with TROW fund managers for 23 straight years. Why? Not because I’m a boomer wanting to lose money. Their funds consistently perform above the average and they have strong depth across both value and growth investing styles. Their T Rowe Price Mid Cap Value fund is stellar just as the Dividend and Growth fund is. These funds post solid long term results with risk taken into account. After the next major tech pullback that isn’t a flash crash, I’d expect TROW to grow assets. ETF’s just need one good crash to show that passive investing has risks too. Sometimes owning too many names will hurt you. What differentiates TROW, Fidelity American funds, and Wellington from many investment management firms is the depth of their analyst benches and the years of dedicated service and mastery of the craft. At least this is my take as a no-nothing boomer. I liked their investments and communications so much I almost worked for them. They offered me a job in Baltimore I just was tied down by my real estate investments at home.

Correction on TROW.
Their Assets Under Management (AUM) are NOT declining. What is occurring is that they have net redemptions. AUM are climbing despite redemptions because of investment returns.
I have owned TROW for over 30 years. I sold 75% of my position five years ago, and regrettably not the entire position.
TROW's salad days are over because of the secular shift to index funds and ETFs. Evidence of this is the drop in TROW's advisory fees (as a percentage of AUM) from 46.1 basis points in 2019 to 38.1 BPS in the last quarter.
The company is still quite profitable with operating margins of 34% today versus 48% five years ago. It is cash generative, and the balance sheet is swimming in cash and liquidity.
The dividend yield is quite good because the stock price is in the tank.
The problem with TROW is that the CEO is as dumb as dirt, and should be fired in my opinion. The investment advisory business has been getting more competitive for five years, and he thinks he can acquire his way out of the problem. The company needs slash OPEX margin in light of the secular trends. I also think the company should buy back a significant portion of its stock--e.g. 25%.
I'm not sure if TROW is a melting ice cube or a stalwart.

Thanks for proposing some companies, it made a fun research project this morning. I will not be buying any of these (with one exception) just because I have my own process and they don't fit (gotta have a process).
Copart Inc. (CPRT) doesn't pay a dividend and P/E is 20.66, higher than I like.
Hamilton Insurance Group (HG) already appears almost fully priced. I like its debt/equity of 5.12%. It paid a large irregular dividend for the first time in March of this year and if it had a record of reliably paying like that this would be a definite winner for me. I will put it on my watchlist but I am afraid it has already been "discovered."
T. Rowe Price Group (TROW) already fully priced. Nice dividend of 4.63%, attractive P/E at 11.28. I don't see the potential for price rise and am not sure managed investments have a big future, though they will always have a place.
Birkenstock Holding (BIRK) doesn't pay a dividend and I don't like clothing and trends stocks in general. Plus the shoes hurt my feet. Analysts seem to like it, though, and it does have potential for price rise, priced at $35.30 and 1year target estimate is $54.44. Not for me.
VICI Properties (VICI) Love it. Already bought at $26.09 and considering buying more.
Louis Vuitton (LVMH) Nope. Don't like investing in luxury brands, clothing, or trends. I'm not a consumer of these products and don't understand that market.
Boston Beer Co. (SAM) Nope. Beer is a loser with younger generations IMO.
Zoom Communications (ZM) I think this technology has a limited shelf life. Also I don't understand tech that fully and it moves fast, with agile competition. Pays no dividend.
Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM) Great place to shop. Stock pays no dividend, has a debt/equity of 140%, and grocery profit margins get pressured easily by events. Doesn't fit my process.
Maximus Inc. (MMS) Definitely in value territory. But - I would want more clarity on how its relationship with the government will function post-DOGE. The expected number of contracts don't seem to be getting inked on the bottom line. How will AI affect this business? The government is opaque and it's impossible to get visibility into the future. Buyers are holding back and so am I.
Lennar Corp. (LEN) Already fully priced. Plus, we have a housing shortage now, but a tsunami of boomer generation homes will be coming on the market, more every year, and immigration is curtailed.
UBER (UBER) I don't understand the self-driving car technology and competition in this space moves too fast. Pays no dividend. Good potential for price rise with current price $79.29 vs. 1 year target estimate of $101.78, so analysts like it. Doesn't fit my process.
Yelp Inc. (YELP) Close to fully priced at $24 when 1 year target is $26. Pays no dividend. As a consumer, I find Yelp ads bewildering, intrusive, and noisy. I'd rather go straight to the company website. The reviews are not useful to me either.
As you can see I did not do a deep dive, because all of these except Hamilton Insurance and VICI Properties were eliminated early as not fitting my personal stock selection process.

Reading recent posts on this sub is like analyzing companies. Most are a bag of sh\*t*, some interesting, few incredible. So to have some fun I’ll share a list I’ve been pondering the past few days to see if any tickle your fancy. Let me know if any are interesting / if this post is also a steaming pile of sh\*t.*
**Copart** \- you crash car, insurance totals cars, they sell through copart. Copart has buyers using site as parts, fix and sell, or junk. Sellers are mainly insurance companies >80%. The moat are the facilities they have across the US and several other countries which collect, store, prepare, and sell the cars. Increasing tech added to cars has been a boon as % of totals has increased - lower rate of accidents however any accident is more expensive to fix = more auction volume for copart / competitors. Largest competitor RB Global, claims about 35% market share vs copart. Main risk to copart is competitor driving prices lower or decrease in number of accidents from autonomous driving. Now listed as 20PE as it’s come off 52 week low.
**HG -** Hamilton Insurance group. Small specialty insurer growing strong. The catch or potential upside is about 30% of assets are invested with two sigma which has performed well however likely will keep there valuation depressed given management fees and earnings vol of hedge funds. Also certain risk around what specific risks they hold and what kind of tail risk they are exposed to. Growth has been high but industry is cyclical so risk is certainly there.
**TROW** \- asset manager which I assume mostly boomers or very wealthy use to loose a few % a year on fees. There AUM has been declining due to there lack of ETF’s & the push towards lower cost passive investing. The structural risk of there business which is yet to be answered is “why would I pay 1% a year for active management if the S&P returns 10%+ for free”. If they can actually push into ETF’s it may stop the bleeding on AUM.
**BIRK -** anecdotally I can’t walk a single block without seeing a pair of these (or there knockoffs). Valuation is a little rich but it’s a clean business which has been growing well. As with any direct consumer facing apparel brand these can turn fast (Nike / LULU) so beware as some of these are quite pricey compared to what I imagine the amazon version costs. This one is a compounder while trend holds but would keep close tabs on it.
**VICI -** definitely not your average value investment, and guarantee it will not double in the short term. But it holds a large number of the real estate in Vegas and some other interesting properties focusing on experiences (golf, arcades, ect.). For the decent dividend you are taking the risk that Vegas comes back to life and overall the average consumer continues to consume.
**LVMUY -** can’t say I’ll ever be a customer of most of this brands products but for whatever reason people like to dress themselves in expensive clothing and I’m happy to oblige. Valuation for this is also relatively high at around 20PE and you’ll be directly exposed to not a local consumer but broadly across the world. Short term the stock price reflects consumer sentiment but assuming people keep buying luxury (and fakes don’t engulf sales) this has been well run for a very long time.
**SAM -** we know the kids no longer drink but the company has zero debt and is at least attempting to pivot away from strictly beer. There Truly pivot has not turned very well but the hope for this is some life to come back into sales and the company to pivot further into the zero alcohol/ alternative beverage lane. Given the drink markets saturation and lack of any moat this is a risky sight for those who think drinking may turn / SAM is the best horse in the race.
**ZM** \- the app you use for all your meetings (even when you’re already in the office). Stock has been flying so is no longer free. Given most of there customers are companies the chance of switching may be lower than if it were lots of individuals however growth from core business will not exceed single digits unless they expand. With almost $8b in cash and securities and almost $2b mainly from investment in Anthropic the real problem is management having nothing to do with all the cash. Even as management has just stacked cash the street is now re-rating the valuation. If management can deploy into something with actual growth or just return it through a special dividend owners will be overjoyed.
**SFM** \- also no longer at a scintillating valuation however the business continues to grow strongly and expand. Obvious top line risk is the business being a grocery store so is directly exposed to consumer and there continued weakness. However compared to the giants of WMT / COST / TGT revenue, net margins, store growth, ROIC have all grown / remained in line with peers. This certainly may change if consumer weakness continues / recession comes. Given this is a speciality store with over 30% of locations within California, that may have helped shield them so far from the “trade down” towards lower priced foods. However if there core customers stick around and they can continue growing into new states it looks decent.
**MMS** \- Maximus exists to perform functions governments either don’t want or can’t easily do. Balance sheet is certainly not the cleanest and results have been weakening due to some reduction in contracts related to DOGE / shifts. However I don’t think the trend of less government appears likely in the next 20 years (assuming we are still around by then). Thus I’ll happily pick this up on a discount and keep a close eye on any new contracts being bid & won and for any new budgets being released by the main orgs contracting to MMS.
**LEN** \- homebuilder with a decent balance sheet and coverage across home buyers. Has recently dipped compared to peers. Structurally this is a bet at least in the short term on rates and increasing volume of home sales. However if rates keep chugging higher it may present an even cleaner entry - of course with a ceiling above which the company and our countries survival will be in question. Thus the pick is on a good operator within a decent industry currently experiencing struggles.
**UBER** \- certainly not the typical value stock as the price has jumped over the past month. Company went from being the joke of Wall Street to a decently solid company. Again this has dreaded exposure to consumers, because if no one has money to order food or take a taxi this company dies. But they survived covid and what many believed was a trend of delivery has since become typical. Risk & potential reward is from self driving / autonomous if another company makes it there screwed but if they get it they may print without having to pay all those pesky drivers livable wages.
**YELP** \- people love reviews and businesses like to advertise. Enter Yelp which sells ads space to businesses and gets consumers with reviews. Obviously main risk is people shifting towards AI for suggestions. Also exposed to consumer / business as businesses may cut advertising during a downturn / if ROI of there spend is not meaningful/ measurable. Balance sheet and valuation are both decent and the stock will behave based on whether management can keep consumers & businesses within there platform.

Age 44, dedicated to investing portions of my $ with TROW fund managers for 23 straight years. Why? Not because I’m a boomer wanting to lose money. Their funds consistently perform above the average and they have strong depth across both value and growth investing styles. Their T Rowe Price Mid Cap Value fund is stellar just as the Dividend and Growth fund is. These funds post solid long term results with risk taken into account. After the next major tech pullback that isn’t a flash crash, I’d expect TROW to grow assets. ETF’s just need one good crash to show that passive investing has risks too. Sometimes owning too many names will hurt you. What differentiates TROW, Fidelity American funds, and Wellington from many investment management firms is the depth of their analyst benches and the years of dedicated service and mastery of the craft. At least this is my take as a no-nothing boomer. I liked their investments and communications so much I almost worked for them. They offered me a job in Baltimore I just was tied down by my real estate investments at home.

Correction on TROW.
Their Assets Under Management (AUM) are NOT declining. What is occurring is that they have net redemptions. AUM are climbing despite redemptions because of investment returns.
I have owned TROW for over 30 years. I sold 75% of my position five years ago, and regrettably not the entire position.
TROW's salad days are over because of the secular shift to index funds and ETFs. Evidence of this is the drop in TROW's advisory fees (as a percentage of AUM) from 46.1 basis points in 2019 to 38.1 BPS in the last quarter.
The company is still quite profitable with operating margins of 34% today versus 48% five years ago. It is cash generative, and the balance sheet is swimming in cash and liquidity.
The dividend yield is quite good because the stock price is in the tank.
The problem with TROW is that the CEO is as dumb as dirt, and should be fired in my opinion. The investment advisory business has been getting more competitive for five years, and he thinks he can acquire his way out of the problem. The company needs slash OPEX margin in light of the secular trends. I also think the company should buy back a significant portion of its stock--e.g. 25%.
I'm not sure if TROW is a melting ice cube or a stalwart.

Thanks for proposing some companies, it made a fun research project this morning. I will not be buying any of these (with one exception) just because I have my own process and they don't fit (gotta have a process).
Copart Inc. (CPRT) doesn't pay a dividend and P/E is 20.66, higher than I like.
Hamilton Insurance Group (HG) already appears almost fully priced. I like its debt/equity of 5.12%. It paid a large irregular dividend for the first time in March of this year and if it had a record of reliably paying like that this would be a definite winner for me. I will put it on my watchlist but I am afraid it has already been "discovered."
T. Rowe Price Group (TROW) already fully priced. Nice dividend of 4.63%, attractive P/E at 11.28. I don't see the potential for price rise and am not sure managed investments have a big future, though they will always have a place.
Birkenstock Holding (BIRK) doesn't pay a dividend and I don't like clothing and trends stocks in general. Plus the shoes hurt my feet. Analysts seem to like it, though, and it does have potential for price rise, priced at $35.30 and 1year target estimate is $54.44. Not for me.
VICI Properties (VICI) Love it. Already bought at $26.09 and considering buying more.
Louis Vuitton (LVMH) Nope. Don't like investing in luxury brands, clothing, or trends. I'm not a consumer of these products and don't understand that market.
Boston Beer Co. (SAM) Nope. Beer is a loser with younger generations IMO.
Zoom Communications (ZM) I think this technology has a limited shelf life. Also I don't understand tech that fully and it moves fast, with agile competition. Pays no dividend.
Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM) Great place to shop. Stock pays no dividend, has a debt/equity of 140%, and grocery profit margins get pressured easily by events. Doesn't fit my process.
Maximus Inc. (MMS) Definitely in value territory. But - I would want more clarity on how its relationship with the government will function post-DOGE. The expected number of contracts don't seem to be getting inked on the bottom line. How will AI affect this business? The government is opaque and it's impossible to get visibility into the future. Buyers are holding back and so am I.
Lennar Corp. (LEN) Already fully priced. Plus, we have a housing shortage now, but a tsunami of boomer generation homes will be coming on the market, more every year, and immigration is curtailed.
UBER (UBER) I don't understand the self-driving car technology and competition in this space moves too fast. Pays no dividend. Good potential for price rise with current price $79.29 vs. 1 year target estimate of $101.78, so analysts like it. Doesn't fit my process.
Yelp Inc. (YELP) Close to fully priced at $24 when 1 year target is $26. Pays no dividend. As a consumer, I find Yelp ads bewildering, intrusive, and noisy. I'd rather go straight to the company website. The reviews are not useful to me either.
As you can see I did not do a deep dive, because all of these except Hamilton Insurance and VICI Properties were eliminated early as not fitting my personal stock selection process.

Reading recent posts on this sub is like analyzing companies. Most are a bag of sh\*t*, some interesting, few incredible. So to have some fun I’ll share a list I’ve been pondering the past few days to see if any tickle your fancy. Let me know if any are interesting / if this post is also a steaming pile of sh\*t.*
**Copart** \- you crash car, insurance totals cars, they sell through copart. Copart has buyers using site as parts, fix and sell, or junk. Sellers are mainly insurance companies >80%. The moat are the facilities they have across the US and several other countries which collect, store, prepare, and sell the cars. Increasing tech added to cars has been a boon as % of totals has increased - lower rate of accidents however any accident is more expensive to fix = more auction volume for copart / competitors. Largest competitor RB Global, claims about 35% market share vs copart. Main risk to copart is competitor driving prices lower or decrease in number of accidents from autonomous driving. Now listed as 20PE as it’s come off 52 week low.
**HG -** Hamilton Insurance group. Small specialty insurer growing strong. The catch or potential upside is about 30% of assets are invested with two sigma which has performed well however likely will keep there valuation depressed given management fees and earnings vol of hedge funds. Also certain risk around what specific risks they hold and what kind of tail risk they are exposed to. Growth has been high but industry is cyclical so risk is certainly there.
**TROW** \- asset manager which I assume mostly boomers or very wealthy use to loose a few % a year on fees. There AUM has been declining due to there lack of ETF’s & the push towards lower cost passive investing. The structural risk of there business which is yet to be answered is “why would I pay 1% a year for active management if the S&P returns 10%+ for free”. If they can actually push into ETF’s it may stop the bleeding on AUM.
**BIRK -** anecdotally I can’t walk a single block without seeing a pair of these (or there knockoffs). Valuation is a little rich but it’s a clean business which has been growing well. As with any direct consumer facing apparel brand these can turn fast (Nike / LULU) so beware as some of these are quite pricey compared to what I imagine the amazon version costs. This one is a compounder while trend holds but would keep close tabs on it.
**VICI -** definitely not your average value investment, and guarantee it will not double in the short term. But it holds a large number of the real estate in Vegas and some other interesting properties focusing on experiences (golf, arcades, ect.). For the decent dividend you are taking the risk that Vegas comes back to life and overall the average consumer continues to consume.
**LVMUY -** can’t say I’ll ever be a customer of most of this brands products but for whatever reason people like to dress themselves in expensive clothing and I’m happy to oblige. Valuation for this is also relatively high at around 20PE and you’ll be directly exposed to not a local consumer but broadly across the world. Short term the stock price reflects consumer sentiment but assuming people keep buying luxury (and fakes don’t engulf sales) this has been well run for a very long time.
**SAM -** we know the kids no longer drink but the company has zero debt and is at least attempting to pivot away from strictly beer. There Truly pivot has not turned very well but the hope for this is some life to come back into sales and the company to pivot further into the zero alcohol/ alternative beverage lane. Given the drink markets saturation and lack of any moat this is a risky sight for those who think drinking may turn / SAM is the best horse in the race.
**ZM** \- the app you use for all your meetings (even when you’re already in the office). Stock has been flying so is no longer free. Given most of there customers are companies the chance of switching may be lower than if it were lots of individuals however growth from core business will not exceed single digits unless they expand. With almost $8b in cash and securities and almost $2b mainly from investment in Anthropic the real problem is management having nothing to do with all the cash. Even as management has just stacked cash the street is now re-rating the valuation. If management can deploy into something with actual growth or just return it through a special dividend owners will be overjoyed.
**SFM** \- also no longer at a scintillating valuation however the business continues to grow strongly and expand. Obvious top line risk is the business being a grocery store so is directly exposed to consumer and there continued weakness. However compared to the giants of WMT / COST / TGT revenue, net margins, store growth, ROIC have all grown / remained in line with peers. This certainly may change if consumer weakness continues / recession comes. Given this is a speciality store with over 30% of locations within California, that may have helped shield them so far from the “trade down” towards lower priced foods. However if there core customers stick around and they can continue growing into new states it looks decent.
**MMS** \- Maximus exists to perform functions governments either don’t want or can’t easily do. Balance sheet is certainly not the cleanest and results have been weakening due to some reduction in contracts related to DOGE / shifts. However I don’t think the trend of less government appears likely in the next 20 years (assuming we are still around by then). Thus I’ll happily pick this up on a discount and keep a close eye on any new contracts being bid & won and for any new budgets being released by the main orgs contracting to MMS.
**LEN** \- homebuilder with a decent balance sheet and coverage across home buyers. Has recently dipped compared to peers. Structurally this is a bet at least in the short term on rates and increasing volume of home sales. However if rates keep chugging higher it may present an even cleaner entry - of course with a ceiling above which the company and our countries survival will be in question. Thus the pick is on a good operator within a decent industry currently experiencing struggles.
**UBER** \- certainly not the typical value stock as the price has jumped over the past month. Company went from being the joke of Wall Street to a decently solid company. Again this has dreaded exposure to consumers, because if no one has money to order food or take a taxi this company dies. But they survived covid and what many believed was a trend of delivery has since become typical. Risk & potential reward is from self driving / autonomous if another company makes it there screwed but if they get it they may print without having to pay all those pesky drivers livable wages.
**YELP** \- people love reviews and businesses like to advertise. Enter Yelp which sells ads space to businesses and gets consumers with reviews. Obviously main risk is people shifting towards AI for suggestions. Also exposed to consumer / business as businesses may cut advertising during a downturn / if ROI of there spend is not meaningful/ measurable. Balance sheet and valuation are both decent and the stock will behave based on whether management can keep consumers & businesses within there platform.