VALE
VALE S.A.
stock NYSE ADR

Real breakout was last fall, same as VALE. This could be a time to panic, but it could also be a buyable retracement or bull flag? This chart term yes looks ugly into you zoom out.

 Petrobras (PBR) is a Brazilian oil company; world's 9th largest. They have largest south american holdings, an significant international holdings as well.
At present price they have a P/E ratio 4.5 and a forward dividend and yield of 9.5%.

Although holding debt, it appears to be inline with others within the sector.
Bear case: Best I could gather, there is a fear of Brazil further nationalizing their oil and mining industries. The threat to shareholders is indeed a thing. (however their largest miner, VALE, trades at P/E over 20...)

Bull case: Brazil is trying dearly to bring investment in. Any threat on nationalization would crush outside investment. The threat may be noise, but unlikely to materialize. Even if viewed as a threat, using that to half the fair value from equal contemporaries would not justify current price. shell p/e of 10 (with lower dividend rate), bp and exxon are at p/e 20. This places a better fair value between 7 and 10, in my opinion (50-100% up from current).
Ultra bull case: Iran issue is messing up middle east oil flow and refining capacity. This increases non middle east based oil value significantly. US has been draining strategic reserves through conflict to try and keep markets stable, however those stocks are not infinite (currently at lowest levels since 1983- 4 years after they started) Between October anf February floor limits will be touched on reserves. At that point export bans and export tariffs come into play to keep us fuel cheap. Canadian oil primarily must go through US to get to international market as well as Venezuela. If you source oil not from US control, or Middle east control you get Russian (which is not in good condition from Ukraine), Norway, Brazil, and Nigeria as top alternatives. With PBR having solid footprint in remainder, their position as global suplier has ground for SIGNIFICANT upward movement.

NovaRed Mining [(NREDF)](https://www.barchart.com/quotes/NREDF) says it has detected two large anomalies ten kilometers from a producing copper mine, and pitches the target as a matter of national security. Copper is near record highs, and the $9 million explorer, with no reserve and no drill hole, is one of the riskiest ways to bet on it. The majors, Rio Tinto [(RIO)](https://www.barchart.com/quotes/RIO) , BHP [(BHP)](https://www.barchart.com/quotes/BHP) and Hudbay Minerals [(HBM)](https://www.barchart.com/quotes/HBM) , are the safer end.\*
"This announcement identifies specific land within our land for further exploration, and we detected two anomalies, large anomalies we will be working on," Valentin Saitarli, NovaRed's technology chief, said in an interview. He does not pitch it small. "National security depends on it," he said. "The electricity that runs through your electrical wires, pretty much everything you touch in the modern world relies on copper." He reaches for the nearest object to make the point. "Even your wooden chair needs an electrical screwdriver to be assembled," he said. "So we live in an electromagnetic society. That's how we call it."
# The pitch is size and location
Saitarli's case for the property starts with how big it is. "We are among the top 10, probably, exploration companies by size, by the land side," he said, describing a package he puts at "three times the size of Manhattan." The ground is real, about 16,000 hectares, but acreage is not a resource. The land is "located in close proximity to an already available mine," he said, and near the border and the coast. "US border is very close. Seaport is very close."
That mine is Hudbay's [(HBM)](https://www.barchart.com/quotes/HBM) Copper Mountain, ten kilometers east. "We have a tremendously amazing team of experts on board, with tremendous experience," he said, of a company that has yet to drill a hole.
# Why he thinks it matters now
The urgency, in his telling, is a supply problem the West made for itself. "We live in the age when it takes 15 years to develop a gold copper mine," he said. "And we buy copper and gold from China. Rare earth minerals, 90% supplied by China. To have this type of a deposit in North America, in my opinion, is unprecedented." The price agrees: copper closed near $6.46 a pound in early August, up about 46% this year. "We will witness the world, pretty much how we call it, wrapped in copper," he said. "In Miami, almost every apartment is all electric."
# What the geology actually says
"There are really two possibilities," NovaRed CEO Brian Goss said on August 3, of two alteration zones the company mapped above a magnetic anomaly on its Wilmac ground. "Either this is the shallow expression of an older porphyry system at depth, or it is a much younger epithermal system sitting in the cover rocks above it." The anomaly, the company argues, is the buried western continuation of the system feeding Copper Mountain, and a survey this year is meant to tell which. NovaRed says as much in every release: no mineral resources or reserves have been identified on the project.
# Where the money goes
\-Producers, the direct exposure to $6 copper: Rio Tinto [(RIO)](https://www.barchart.com/quotes/RIO) , BHP [(BHP)](https://www.barchart.com/quotes/BHP) , Freeport-McMoRan [(FCX)](https://www.barchart.com/quotes/FCX) , Southern Copper [(SCCO)](https://www.barchart.com/quotes/SCCO) , Teck Resources [(TECK)](https://www.barchart.com/quotes/TECK) , Ero Copper [(ERO)](https://www.barchart.com/quotes/ERO) , Vale [(VALE)](https://www.barchart.com/quotes/VALE) . Hudbay [(HBM)](https://www.barchart.com/quotes/HBM) is the mine next door
\- NovaRed [(NREDF)](https://www.barchart.com/quotes/NREDF) , the speculative edge: no resource, no reserve, no drill results. C$8.5 million of exploration owed on a \~$9 million market cap, and the stock is down \~86% from its C$2.33 high.
For now there is no mine, just two anomalies and a copper price loud enough to fund testing them. Saitarli is unbothered by the odds. "To have this type of a deposit in North America, in my opinion, is unprecedented," he said.

Source: Barchart
[https://www.barchart.com/story/news/3621714/novared-mining-identifies-a-large-copper-gold-target-beside-hudbay-s-producing-copper-mountain-mine](https://www.barchart.com/story/news/3621714/novared-mining-identifies-a-large-copper-gold-target-beside-hudbay-s-producing-copper-mountain-mine)