OI
O-I Glass, Inc.
stock NYSE

Been through this exact pain. On expiry day a slightly OTM call is almost all time value, so theta is eating it every minute. Your direction can be right and you still lose because the move comes too slow.
What helped me: on expiry I stop asking ‘will it go up’ and ask ‘will it go up fast enough to beat the decay’. If the answer isn’t a clear yes, I stay out. Also worth glancing at where the big OI is sitting before buying on expiry — heavy put OI below and call OI above usually tells you the range the index is likely stuck in.
Keeping those moon positions small is smart. Cheap lesson overall.

Max Pain, Volume and OI Data, every day until MOASS AND/or western society collapses — 09/30/2026

Could dump overnight, the put OI for tomorrow is unusually light

Multiple systems on a single platform. Currently running 9 variants. Every 15 minutes they will scan the ladder and build spreads. The vast majority will get filtered out for one reason or another. Lack of OI, poor credit to max loss ratio, poor PoP, gamma risk vs current positions, etc. if any pass then it takes the best candidate and passes it up to the aggregator. The aggregator then takes all the sub-system's orders and combines them into a single unified order group to pass to the brokerage. Then it needs to track the filled orders and redistribute them to the ledger of the individual subsystems. The main issues come from competing leg directions of previous positions to needed new positions 

Just one thing. I am also an associate lead developer in an MNC product-based company and have experience with Java full stack and Python full stack with an AI/ML stack. I would love to contribute if you need. Having 8+ years of trading experience, I would say indicators like MAs, VWAPs, and all other types of indicators won't work. If you truly want to build an automated system, you first have to identify the fundamentals and technicals. Also, you have to develop a strategy first, or what you might call a trigger; whether it is naked or hedged is user-based, and you cannot say that a put spread or an iron fly is a strategy or a trigger, as those are entry formations. Create one complete strategy using SMC/ICT (though whether it works is a debatable question). Mostly, what works here is data, such as OI data and its changes plus footprints; as I recall, the most brokers releases 1-minute or 3-minute changes. If you need tick-based data, it costs around 23 lakhs for a direct connection from the NSE, though maybe some brokers have 1-minute data changes; I think TrueData has it. You can use volume profile as well. One more thing: I have figured out that Nifty is affected by global factors, mostly crude oil and US bond rates, so you should keep an eye on those as well. That is all from my side.

The Oct 2 $24 and $25 are likely FLEX options; 25k OI on each as of yesterday’s OCC report.
https://preview.redd.it/zusqt74f6lsh1.jpeg?width=828&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3a3fafad2d55ef1f318730f9df29286738dc9e05

Been through this exact pain. On expiry day a slightly OTM call is almost all time value, so theta is eating it every minute. Your direction can be right and you still lose because the move comes too slow.
What helped me: on expiry I stop asking ‘will it go up’ and ask ‘will it go up fast enough to beat the decay’. If the answer isn’t a clear yes, I stay out. Also worth glancing at where the big OI is sitting before buying on expiry — heavy put OI below and call OI above usually tells you the range the index is likely stuck in.
Keeping those moon positions small is smart. Cheap lesson overall.

Max Pain, Volume and OI Data, every day until MOASS AND/or western society collapses — 09/30/2026

Could dump overnight, the put OI for tomorrow is unusually light

Multiple systems on a single platform. Currently running 9 variants. Every 15 minutes they will scan the ladder and build spreads. The vast majority will get filtered out for one reason or another. Lack of OI, poor credit to max loss ratio, poor PoP, gamma risk vs current positions, etc. if any pass then it takes the best candidate and passes it up to the aggregator. The aggregator then takes all the sub-system's orders and combines them into a single unified order group to pass to the brokerage. Then it needs to track the filled orders and redistribute them to the ledger of the individual subsystems. The main issues come from competing leg directions of previous positions to needed new positions 

Just one thing. I am also an associate lead developer in an MNC product-based company and have experience with Java full stack and Python full stack with an AI/ML stack. I would love to contribute if you need. Having 8+ years of trading experience, I would say indicators like MAs, VWAPs, and all other types of indicators won't work. If you truly want to build an automated system, you first have to identify the fundamentals and technicals. Also, you have to develop a strategy first, or what you might call a trigger; whether it is naked or hedged is user-based, and you cannot say that a put spread or an iron fly is a strategy or a trigger, as those are entry formations. Create one complete strategy using SMC/ICT (though whether it works is a debatable question). Mostly, what works here is data, such as OI data and its changes plus footprints; as I recall, the most brokers releases 1-minute or 3-minute changes. If you need tick-based data, it costs around 23 lakhs for a direct connection from the NSE, though maybe some brokers have 1-minute data changes; I think TrueData has it. You can use volume profile as well. One more thing: I have figured out that Nifty is affected by global factors, mostly crude oil and US bond rates, so you should keep an eye on those as well. That is all from my side.

The Oct 2 $24 and $25 are likely FLEX options; 25k OI on each as of yesterday’s OCC report.
https://preview.redd.it/zusqt74f6lsh1.jpeg?width=828&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3a3fafad2d55ef1f318730f9df29286738dc9e05

Fair point, and that's the main caveat with any GEX read into an earnings print tbh. A big enough guide can blow right through both walls and the levels become meaningless. On the OI question: I don't have the post-roll open interest broken out by strike, so I'm treating $1,000/$1,100 as directional references rather than hard levels this week. The real trade is the guide, not the walls.

Last Oct-Dec, I full ported and[ called $SEZL at $50-80](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1orfs7w/dd_subprime_split_purchases_sezl/). It has since peaked at $180 and is now trading at around $110 - my thesis points all came true.

As fintech/BNPL is popular to hate on, feel free to counter my points in the comments.

$KLAR is fundamentally mis-priced at $12.50/sh and will be re-rated to **$20-25 around release of Q4 earnings (Feb 2027) as my base case, and bear case re-rating will take place around Q1 earnings (May 2027).** Price action in the next month might be dog poop though.
# Five main THESIS POINTS, and some RISKS at end of page.
**1. Growth is great, valuation is quite depressed.**
Revenue growing 25-30% YoY, TMD growing at 35-45% YoY. In Q2, adjusted operating income reached 91M & 27M GAAP OI, 9M GAAP NI.
P/S of 1.1, and 2027 EPS multiple of around 15-25 depending on what model you look at.
$AFRM, the closest competitor to $KLAR, was trading at the same P/S when they were burning 200M cash per quarter in 2022. $KLAR is already at breakeven with double the revenue (compared to AFRM back then), and in the acceleration stage of US penetration.
(LIKELY) $2B cash coming in from Google/Pricerunner lawsuit which already settled in Klarna's favour (ofc Google appealed, could be $1-3B payout upon appeal). Market cap of 4.7B currently.

**2. Focus on Fair Financing in November 2025,** which is basically longer-term APR loans on higher ticket items like dishwashers, laundry machine etc.
This follows the same path as Affirm's loan issuance style, and carries MUCH higher margins than the standard BNPL model Klarna runs. Affirm has 8% take rate doing mostly this type of loan - Klarna is currently at 2.85%, because they are still ramping up on FF.

Fair Financing makes up 13% of GMV as of Q2, growing at 82% YoY. As this loan issuance grows rapidly so will TMD, OI, and profitability.

**3. US Expansion being a key driver of higher margins** \- launch of JPM & Apple are some of the largest signings this year, and they are driving usage aggressively in US (37% YoY rev growth in USA, at 36% of total revenue). Note that US is responsible for 36% of total rev DESPITE only being 22% of GMV (as of Q2). Expecting continual 35-40% rev growth in US (consistent with Affirm's growth rates).

**4. Flywheel of 120M active users and other financial products** \- they have fee credit cards, debit cards, chequing/savings accounts, etc. which serve as additional, higher margin line of revenue & even with weak penetration of total active users, generates incremental revenue growth as more users are introduced to these products. They have around 6.5M Klarna Card users, generating interchange, APR & monthly fees. Not a major contributor to growth but still likely 10M rev/qtr, along with stickier all-in-one finance product.

**5. Open Market Insider Buys:** CEO $10M of shares, Chairman of the Board (Michael Moritz, Sequoia) 50M of shares, both at $14 range. No reason for them to add to large existing positions unless belief of severe valuation disconnect relative to what THE INSIDERS SEE happening. Moritz bought in March 2026, CEO bought in Aug 2026 after large earnings drop.
# Risks

**Rate Hikes:** 1-2 rate hikes will not meaningfully affect bottom line. Short-term duration loan length, using consumer deposits, and selling loans insulates them from much of this shock

**Poor execution:** Execution has been great in 2026 so far - guidance adjustment (3% less GMV & revenue) due to weak Germany general consumer spending as of 2026 (thx war & oil prices). Macro, not execution caused slight guidance adjustment. This is also assuming Germany stays soft.

**CFO/CMO departure:** US-focused executives needed for better capital markets communication & US-focus marketing strategy focus. Not a negative IMO, old CFO was making clown slides on their quarterly earnings.

**Profitability**: yes i want to see scaling of GAAP NI, will improve starting Q4. Q3 is an "investment" Q as stated by mgmt, highest SBC of year and investment into launch of Apple/JPM integration.

**Positions:** 50K in 2028/01 10C/12.5C/15C leaps that are underwater.

Max Pain, Volume and OI Data, every day until MOASS AND/or western society collapses — 09/29/2026

Nice work with the placebo — most people stop at the first regression. A few directions practitioners actually use: (1) aggregate to net dealer gamma by strike bucket instead of raw OI innovations — the hedging-flow story is about gamma, and OI mixes informed and uninformed flow; (2) test on realized vol or vol-of-vol, not |r| — pinning shows up in the path, not the close; (3) the endogeneity problem is real: dealers hold inventory because someone wanted the other side, so regressing returns on inventory is backwards. Cleaner identification: use large block prints as discrete events and look at intraday vol/reversal in the hours after, or test gamma-hedging via intraday reversal patterns near big strikes into expiry. The surface question is better attacked with quoted IV changes around those events than with OI levels.

I grabbed June 27 40$c but there’s lots of OI different strikes

If another party purchased those contracts from the seller and they haven’t exercised them then the contracts simply changed hands, so OI would remain the same

OI got me targets at 7655

GEX based on OI (essentially everything being called "GEX") is flawed and not worth it. It's so pervasive because it can be calculated with scraped/free data rather than paying for an actual datafeed. At one point there was almost one new vibe coded GEX dashboard being posted here every day.

Remember that GEX assumes ALL calls are sold by retail investors and ALL puts are bought by retail investors. This was probably more true in 2017 when the GEX paper was published and 0-dte trading had not taken off yet.