NKE Reddit Mentions | ChartExchange

Disclosure: I run Buzzberg, which tracks every stock mention from the major accounts and channels on X, YouTube and Reddit, so the data below comes from there.

On your three points:
1. Sector: partly. In the month to mid-September ONON fell \~31%, DKS \~38%, LULU \~22%, NKE \~12%. That explains the multiple, not the revenue. On is still growing 15-20%. Nike just guided FY27 revenue down high single digits, with China -26% and Jordan/sportswear deliberately being shrunk. That part is Nike-specific.
2. Sentiment: agreed, it's awful. NKE got \~12x its normal daily mentions after earnings, and sentiment went from -0.17 (30-day avg) to -0.38. But it has been negative all year (-0.20 over 90 days) while the stock fell 47% YTD. So far the bears have simply been right, not contrarian fuel. The pre-earnings "less bad than feared, back to $40" crowd got $33.84 instead.
3. Shorts: the squeeze case was already the bull pitch into this print: short interest is high, so a flat reaction forces covering. We got -6% and a 13-year low instead. Covering gives you bounces, not a bottom.
My actual thesis:
Nike is two businesses now. Performance (running, football, training) is \~$16B and growing high single digits. Sportswear, Jordan and China are shrinking, partly on purpose: fewer Dunks and retros, plus a China channel cleanup. Sportswear alone is roughly half the company. The stock bottoms when the shrinking half stops shrinking, not when sentiment gets bad enough.
The price already assumes a decent outcome. FY27 adj EPS guidance is $1.15-1.35, which is \~27x at $33.84. Working backwards, buying here earns \~10%/yr only if EPS gets back to \~$2.1-2.3 by FY30 at 18-20x. CFRA's bull case is $3+ from the PACE cost program, which would make it a \~$55-60 stock. But most of the $2.5B in savings lands in FY29-31. If \~$1.25 is the new run-rate, it's $20-25. Put rough 30/40/30 odds on bull/base/bear and you land about at today's price. It's fairly priced for a coin-flip turnaround, not cheap.
The dividend is the swing factor. At \~$1.6/share it's above guided EPS, and a lot of the dip-buying right now comes from yield buyers (the "5% yield on a great brand" posts). A cut or freeze would flush that group. That's a more likely path to sub-$30 than tax-loss selling.
What would change my mind: at the Analyst Day (\~mid-November), management shows Sportswear and China stabilizing on a specific timeline, with EPS targets that make $2+ by FY30 credible. Until then there's no edge in guessing the bottom. Waiting for that data costs you a few dollars at most.

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NKE
Nike, Inc.
stock NYSE