MC
MOELIS & COMPANY
stock NYSE

They did add like 300B to MC in a week?

It's wild knowing that Tupac was pretty much a fake gangster while MC Hammer was a real gangster, or his brother was at least, and had rappers straight up afraid of Hammer.

Nope, most didn’t even understand what the company was telling them in the PR. Do your research. Don’t listen to the naysayer talking heads on the blog. Scantinel is worth billions in MC to the company.

Me too. The ride to 2T MC will be fast dude. Ill hold when we reach there.

spent the last year (on and off) building a full reimplementation of the discrete-time 4FPDV model from Guyon & Parent, mostly because I wanted to actually understand path-dependent vol beyond reading the paper once and nodding along.
calibrates to real SPX/VIX options + VIX futures + historical time series, either for one date or rolling over a full backtest. ended up with 11 different calibration modes since depending on what you're fitting (pure smile, VIX time series, MLE on historical returns, futures term structure, mixed objectives) you need pretty different loss setups even though the underlying model is the same. also works for stoxx/vstoxx if anyone cares about that.
VIX pricing is the annoying part obviously since it needs nested MC in theory. I hybridized it, neural net when available, falls back to real nested MC otherwise, and got the MC step wrapped in torch.compile which was about 4x faster on an A6000 once I got the batching right. worth noting: the pretrained NN checkpoint I inherited (from gazzani's original repo, which this whole thing is built on and credited to) doesn't actually hit the accuracy the continuous paper claims, scalers look off to me, pretty sure it's not the final trained model. don't have gpu budget to retrain it myself (estimated a b200x8 cluster would need like 2-3 hrs), but train\_vix\_nn.py has the whole data-gen pipeline if someone wants to run it and send back a real checkpoint.
repo's here if anyone wants to poke at it: [https://github.com/Aditya6969/4fpdv-calibration](https://github.com/Aditya6969/4fpdv-calibration)
papers:
[https://arxiv.org/abs/2406.02319](https://arxiv.org/abs/2406.02319)
[https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract\_id=5382733](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5382733)
curious if anyone here has worked with this model before

- the Luke pegmatites are entirely UG production and begin from year 5
- Leia also has 2 UG components in later years
- whatever recovery they think they get in the DFS you can dock by 10% to get a real world number. MIN has struggled for years to achieve 70% and WC8 think they are gonna get 80%? Yeah sure. I'm not arguing semantics of who will be the better operator because we all likely know MIN are shit operators but LTR also struggled through ramp up so I imagine it's likely a fundamental issue in the lithium startup
- WoO floatation on top of DMS will make the Capex significantly more expensive in 2027 real terms
- 0.9% head grade is really not world class when you have much larger deposits sitting at 1.5-2.5%
So really it's far from world class. I will agree it is in a fucking top tier location. Being that close to a port makes everything easier.
Takeover wise. MIN can block PLS from a deal, which they should do as a competitor. So the only real current suitor is MIN who have no or little fundamental capability to do a deal. If they added another $600m in debt to their already bloated $4B+ then shareholders would likely call for their hands again. I think MIN paid something insane like 87c - genuinely moronic BD.
But there was a leak from the AFR in October that maybe WC8 were looking at a 50% JV - you would have to imagine that there is some truth in that statement even if they deny it and the logical suitor IS MinRes, as they already do 50% JVs however that is a deal with the devil akin to a Glencore deal. 
However the recent downturn has also prompted me to look again towards lithium but this time at PMET. If you think that there exists a scenario where they get approval to build that mine, it's an actual tier 1 large scale DMS only spodumene + pollucite + tantalum operation, has $175m cash and backing from VW, Koch, Albemarle etc. it's NPV5 without pollucite + tantalum or the CV13 expansion + byproducts is around $4.5B at spot. It could be north of $6-7B at current spot. All for $315M MC or $140M EV. Could be tasty if you can front the enviro risk.
The other thing you have to keep in mind is Andover (SQM/Gina near Hedland) starts construction next year and will put out 1.1mT of SC5.5 per year - that is more than PLS for comparison. So there's a strong chance of another lithium market downtown of sorts in late 27/early 28 with additional supply.

Lisa Su and Sudar Pichai are cooking a Google deal to built custom asics with Taalas technology. If this happening, we reach 2T MC ez

Wtf are you talking about? We are about to be a 60B+ MC company and eventually be in the S&P500 once we take eBay, TCGplayer, depop, this will make many people millionaires, including me 😁😁🤑🤑🤑

100%. Remember last year when everyone was on here telling us to buy Opendoor? They’ve gotten awfully quiet.
Opendoor might be a better buy than ASTS right now, actually. I’m not hating on ASTS. But the chances of it ultimately being valued closer to Verizon than Nvidia are pretty significant.
With $4B in 2030 projected revenue, if we assume 3x sales, that’s $12B MC. 20% dilution is a reasonable base case, which gives us $25.70/share.
Good chance reality slaps this stock in the face and the Reddit investing crowd moves on.

it is 3b MC at this price. It also can go down further

LTR hitting nearly $10 billion market cap as an unprofitable hole in the ground back in 2023 really messed with a lot of people's expectations lol
As of right now LTR is valued at a bit over $3b and as you mentioned they made a profit of $14m for the last FY. PLS for example is valued a bit over 4x that and reported about 30-40x those profits with an increase in cash balance from the June quarter alone being over $500m with close to LTR's market cap sitting in cash right now.
I like LTR but they're not an explorer anymore so punters are going to need to see actualy results now that they're a real revenue generating company. I fully believe them to get back above $3 (about 9-10b MC) but using PLS as an example they're going to need to be generating a couple hundred million a quarter in net profit for that to happen.
It's not because it was valued over $3 when it wasn't making profit that it should be valued over $3 now that it is. The simple reason is that it was getting valued WAY into the future at that point and many people (like Gina lol) totally overpaid for it. It can and will get back to those levels but the era of explorer gains are over. I still think that Tony should have accepted ALB's offer but hey that's just me.