CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
stock NYSE

OP -- I started investing in individual stocks in 2015 in a taxable brokerage account. My goal was to do better than my checking/savings account interest and preserve my capital -- I'm really not sure why I didn't know about HYSA (this might be red flag number one....).
I was doing this with some encouragement from my father, who would talk as if he had figured it out after some scary moments. He'd followed "Dogs of the Dow" for a few years with some success. I suspect he talked much more about the successes than the misses.
I went into it using screens similar to yours -- I wanted dividends (to beat the interest rate at the bank) and then used P/E, ROI, debt/equity, years of increasing dividends, payout ratio, P/B, EPS growth, etc. to find strong companies that were likely to grow or at least hold steady. I also focused on large cap and often S&P listed stocks. My screens were not always the same, values and metrics varied some. Bottom line is there wasn't an exact thesis, but I'd say the thinking/concept was similar to yours.
This included the period when the talk was for BRIC as the source/location of most growth. I messed around and found a Russian Oil stock, a Brazilian cell phone thing, and a shipping thing. None of those were winners for me; even if only minor losses, the opportunity cost was real. I also had home grown losers, particularly when I started trying to use some DOW 5 (version/extension of Dogs of the Dow) concepts. DOW, VZ, T, GE, and WBA did not do well for me. I have some real winners from the basic premise: CAT, CINF, CMI, VLO, JNJ, PG, and BA (sold at the first hint of Max issues).
I met my goal of doing better than my savings account. I don't know that I beat the market; I'm not going to work hard enough to figure it out. Around 2019, I started increasing my focus on index funds (VOO, DIA, and MOAT). My risk tolerance is declining as I'm about to turn 55. I've added more index funds (SPYM for its lower share cost, VYM, VTI, SCHD, and XLP). The turn to index was a desire to get away from individual stocks. I also continue to choose to invest in some dividend focused stocks and funds. I do this despite the tax drag issues; I do this for risk avoidance and belief, which are largely emotional reasons. Had I simply bought a combination of SGOV and VOO I would have met my goal, depending on the split I might be ahead of where I am now. I'm comfortable with it and my journey.
I still have and buy some individual stocks -- NVDA, AMZN, AMSL, GOOGL and XOM. However, the bulk of my purchasing now is VOO, SPYM, VTI, and SGOV. My individual stock positions in the other stuff I bought earlier like ED, DUK, MET, MMM, HD, and IBM are now decisions driven by taxes -- do I want to pay the tax and give up the dividend to end the opportunity cost? Buffett did very well for himself and his shareholders; he also said that retail investors should buy broad, low fee index funds.
So what do you what to discuss? I've learned that low fee index funds require low effort, are lower stress, and have a strong history of being successful. I know that each individual investor has different goals, metrics for success, and risk perception and tolerance. As illogical to me as it is, Price/Book doesn't seem to be important in the way I thought it would help me -- buying things that are close to 1/1 or 1/2 should ensure that the stock can't get worse (how can the price fall below the intrinsic value?). The criticism you're seeing is because "beating the market" only matters if it is repeatable. Doing it once doesn't show that you've captured "the thing" that makes it worse. In your 4 years, with one year beating the market, are you overall matching (or nearly) the market? What do you think is different between your 3 under versus 1 over years? Do you think your choices have been influenced by FOMO? For example, does the selection of a highly volatile shipping/tanker reflect beliefs about global trade influences/impacts of current/recent US foreign policy/actions or is it strictly based on your apriori analysis of fundamentals/metrics?

Habe CAT schon seit fast 5 Jahren im Depot - habe allerdings auch ca. 1/3 verkauft durch den aktuellen Boom.

CAT bullish

Talking of data centres, has CAT started to reverse yet or is everyone still assuming their equipment is building 4000 in the next year?

Puts on $CAT

This is precisely the disconnect. At some point years of engagements and progress from the likes of CAT, Nissan, European Defense should have hit a point where we could pull off some kind of strategic first mover win/win finance deal certainly on the order of this tiny but damaging 17 million bridge to nowhere predatory deal. It is not an optimistic scenario. That leaves us cynical types assuming nefarious intentions pulling the strings.

I’d hope CAT might put in another order before the final end… just to keep their massive fleets operational. And no doubt they’ve been planning on all the upgrades from new equipment to older CATS with bolt on lidars.
And what a sad day it might be, when the dozens of functioning highly effecient trucking firms like Kodiak and Gatik have to find new lidars.
Meanwhile, I’d imagine it’s a dang cheap time to pick up some shares… if the basic principle of the Market is still in effect.

Recently, I've been using a quantitative platform that allows you to avoid all the building quant infrastructure, and it generates reports of the strategies and the best trials you get based on probabilistic chart ratio, deflated chart ratio, et cetera. Can you please review my strategy and tell me how would you qualify it, and what would you change?
Also, what more information does an investor need to really believe in investing in this strategy?
_Investment report_
# positive_skew_select — Trial 118
**US Equity** · **Simulated**
- **Organization:** Fintela
- **Report date:** Aug 21, 2026
- **Data through:** Aug 13, 2026
- **Period:** Aug 2021 – Aug 2026
- **Reference:** Trial 118 · positive_skew_select · spy500 (2)
## About this report
> **Simulated** — Performance is simulated. The out-of-sample period (marked on the chart) shows results on market data the strategy was never trained on — the closest proxy to live performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
## Summary
_Grade B · 70/100_
Grade B · exceptional risk-adjusted returns · well-contained drawdowns.
| Metric | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Annualized | +22.8% |
| Sharpe | 3.57 |
| Max drawdown | 7.9% |
| Volatility | 19.8% |
| Overfitting (PBO) | 52.0% |
Performance. Over Aug 2021 – Aug 2026, the portfolio returned +179.3% in total, compounding at +22.8% per year. That outpaces its benchmark (S&P 500 (SPY) +13.2% per year, +85.8% total). Its best month gained +14.8% (Nov 2023) and its worst lost -9.2% (Jan 2022). On out-of-sample data the strategy never trained on, it returned +40.5% at a Sharpe of 3.57 — the closest proxy to live performance.
Risk. On a risk-adjusted basis the portfolio delivers exceptional risk-adjusted returns (Sharpe 3.57). Its deepest peak-to-trough decline was 7.9% — well-contained drawdowns. Annualized volatility of 19.8% reflects moderate volatility. A beta of 0.91 to S&P 500 (SPY) makes it roughly as sensitive as the broad market. Robustness screening finds an elevated overfitting risk (backtest-overfitting probability 52.0%).
Outlook. The book currently holds 5 positions, led by GRMN (20.0%), PLTR (20.0%), PYPL (20.0%). Its top three holdings make up 60.0% of gross exposure, leaving it highly concentrated. Weighing return, risk, drawdown and robustness together, this portfolio earns an overall grade of B (70/100), a profile that holds up well across dimensions. These figures are simulated; past performance is not indicative of future results.
## Performance
_Portfolio vs benchmark, both starting at $100,000_
$279,322 — what $100,000 invested at the start would be worth today. The same amount in S&P 500 (SPY): $185,839 (+86%).
## Out-of-sample track record
_Since Feb 2026_
| Metric | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Return | +40.5% |
| Sharpe | 3.57 |
| Max drawdown | 7.9% |
_Performance on data the strategy was never trained on — the closest available proxy to live results._
## Headline figures
| Metric | Value | Context |
| --- | ---: | --- |
| Total return | 179.3% | S&P 500 (SPY) +85.8% |
| Annualized (CAGR) | 22.8% | S&P 500 (SPY) +13.2% |
| Max drawdown | 7.9% | worst peak-to-trough decline |
| Sharpe ratio | 3.57 | return per unit of risk |
## Versus the market
_Measured against S&P 500 (SPY)_
| Metric | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Alpha | 0.093 |
| Beta | 0.914 |
| Up capture | 93.6% |
| Down capture | 83.4% |
| Correlation | 0.745 |
## Composition
_As of Aug 13, 2026_
| Symbol | Side | Weight | Change |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| GRMN | LONG | 20.0% | +0.00 pp |
| PLTR | LONG | 20.0% | +0.00 pp |
| PYPL | LONG | 20.0% | +0.00 pp |
| TECH | LONG | 20.0% | +0.00 pp |
| ZBRA | LONG | 20.0% | +0.00 pp |
_Sector allocation_
| Bucket | Gross | Net |
| --- | ---: | ---: |
| Technology | 60.0% | +60.0% |
| Financial Services | 20.0% | +20.0% |
| Healthcare | 20.0% | +20.0% |
_Asset type_
| Bucket | Gross | Net |
| --- | ---: | ---: |
| Common Stock | 100.0% | +100.0% |
## Traded assets — full history
_230 assets · 583 trades_
| Symbol | trades | Contribution |
| --- | ---: | ---: |
| SMCI | 4 | +8.3% |
| DDOG | 7 | +6.9% |
| META | 7 | +6.7% |
| CHRW | 3 | +5.7% |
| ULTA | 8 | +5.6% |
| DVA | 4 | +4.7% |
| MSFT | 2 | +4.7% |
| ROST | 8 | +4.7% |
| QCOM | 2 | +4.4% |
| IT | 6 | +4.2% |
| SATS | 6 | +4.0% |
| ANET | 1 | +3.6% |
| CIEN | 9 | +3.1% |
| SNPS | 3 | +3.0% |
| PLTR | 3 | +3.0% |
| DELL | 5 | +2.8% |
| DLTR | 5 | +2.7% |
| ERIE | 2 | +2.7% |
| AOS | 3 | +2.7% |
| LYV | 5 | +2.6% |
| VRT | 2 | +2.6% |
| VEEV | 7 | +2.5% |
| PYPL | 2 | +2.4% |
| NVDA | 2 | +2.4% |
| AXON | 8 | +2.4% |
| CVNA | 2 | +2.4% |
| OXY | 4 | +2.2% |
| VRTX | 4 | +2.2% |
| PFE | 1 | +2.2% |
| TXN | 2 | +2.1% |
| KEYS | 1 | +2.1% |
| DOC | 1 | +2.0% |
| WDAY | 6 | +2.0% |
| FTNT | 1 | +2.0% |
| MKC | 1 | +2.0% |
| TPL | 1 | +1.9% |
| INTC | 1 | +1.9% |
| BIIB | 1 | +1.8% |
| URI | 1 | +1.8% |
| WSM | 5 | +1.8% |
| DE | 1 | +1.7% |
| CRWD | 1 | +1.7% |
| SNA | 1 | +1.7% |
| HPQ | 2 | +1.6% |
| LULU | 7 | +1.6% |
| PWR | 2 | +1.6% |
| GILD | 1 | +1.6% |
| GM | 4 | +1.6% |
| LMT | 3 | +1.6% |
| FIX | 2 | +1.5% |
| TGT | 6 | +1.5% |
| GDDY | 3 | +1.5% |
| LUV | 1 | +1.5% |
| MNST | 2 | +1.5% |
| GRMN | 8 | +1.4% |
| FAST | 1 | +1.4% |
| SJM | 2 | +1.4% |
| STT | 2 | +1.3% |
| SBUX | 2 | +1.3% |
| VZ | 3 | +1.3% |
| TTWO | 4 | +1.3% |
| PANW | 3 | +1.3% |
| TPR | 5 | +1.2% |
| JBL | 2 | +1.2% |
| MCHP | 1 | +1.2% |
| CTVA | 3 | +1.1% |
| HUM | 2 | +1.1% |
| CI | 1 | +1.1% |
| DXCM | 7 | +1.1% |
| REGN | 1 | +1.1% |
| MMM | 1 | +1.1% |
| PKG | 3 | +1.0% |
| EQIX | 1 | +1.0% |
| APD | 2 | +1.0% |
| NOW | 2 | +1.0% |
| IQV | 3 | +1.0% |
| DGX | 2 | +0.9% |
| EA | 2 | +0.9% |
| TJX | 1 | +0.8% |
| HCA | 1 | +0.8% |
| WBD | 3 | +0.8% |
| EBAY | 2 | +0.8% |
| ABNB | 1 | +0.8% |
| BK | 2 | +0.8% |
| RMD | 3 | +0.7% |
| RL | 1 | +0.7% |
| VST | 4 | +0.7% |
| HSIC | 1 | +0.7% |
| CSGP | 1 | +0.7% |
| LVS | 2 | +0.7% |
| NKE | 2 | +0.7% |
| SBAC | 3 | +0.6% |
| HWM | 1 | +0.6% |
| ROL | 6 | +0.6% |
| NRG | 1 | +0.6% |
| GWW | 3 | +0.6% |
| WAT | 3 | +0.6% |
| KMB | 1 | +0.5% |
| TXT | 3 | +0.5% |
| BAC | 1 | +0.5% |
| SHW | 1 | +0.5% |
| WFC | 1 | +0.5% |
| SYF | 2 | +0.5% |
| NOC | 4 | +0.5% |
| JNJ | 1 | +0.5% |
| CMG | 5 | +0.5% |
| MRK | 3 | +0.5% |
| GEN | 3 | +0.4% |
| KR | 3 | +0.4% |
| T | 2 | +0.4% |
| CPRT | 1 | +0.4% |
| ZBRA | 1 | +0.4% |
| VTRS | 1 | +0.4% |
| LEN | 1 | +0.4% |
| TEL | 1 | +0.4% |
| XEL | 1 | +0.3% |
| TSLA | 1 | +0.3% |
| AMCR | 1 | +0.3% |
| TMUS | 2 | +0.3% |
| UHS | 1 | +0.3% |
| ALLE | 1 | +0.3% |
| VMC | 1 | +0.3% |
| BLDR | 1 | +0.3% |
| STE | 3 | +0.3% |
| GD | 2 | +0.3% |
| CTAS | 1 | +0.2% |
| INTU | 3 | +0.2% |
| CINF | 1 | +0.2% |
| PGR | 2 | +0.2% |
| CLX | 1 | +0.2% |
| ECL | 1 | +0.2% |
| AON | 1 | +0.1% |
| A | 1 | +0.1% |
| CVS | 3 | +0.1% |
| EME | 1 | +0.1% |
| DRI | 2 | +0.1% |
| CMCSA | 1 | +0.1% |
| CRM | 3 | +0.1% |
| FOX | 1 | +0.1% |
| INCY | 1 | +0.1% |
| BG | 2 | +0.1% |
| TECH | 2 | -0.0% |
| EMR | 2 | -0.0% |
| WAB | 2 | -0.0% |
| GPN | 2 | -0.0% |
| PM | 3 | -0.0% |
| AVY | 1 | -0.1% |
| STZ | 1 | -0.1% |
| TRV | 1 | -0.1% |
| GLW | 1 | -0.1% |
| CAH | 1 | -0.1% |
| FFIV | 2 | -0.1% |
| EXPD | 1 | -0.1% |
| NFLX | 3 | -0.1% |
| IP | 1 | -0.1% |
| JBHT | 4 | -0.1% |
| WTW | 4 | -0.1% |
| YUM | 1 | -0.1% |
| SCHW | 1 | -0.1% |
| RTX | 1 | -0.2% |
| TKO | 2 | -0.2% |
| CCL | 2 | -0.2% |
| HSY | 1 | -0.2% |
| ADBE | 2 | -0.2% |
| TRMB | 2 | -0.2% |
| PHM | 2 | -0.2% |
| WM | 2 | -0.3% |
| GOOGL | 1 | -0.3% |
| FOXA | 1 | -0.3% |
| HST | 1 | -0.3% |
| DLR | 1 | -0.3% |
| IVZ | 2 | -0.3% |
| PCAR | 2 | -0.4% |
| COHR | 1 | -0.4% |
| ISRG | 5 | -0.4% |
| XYL | 2 | -0.4% |
| EXR | 1 | -0.4% |
| SYY | 5 | -0.4% |
| DIS | 1 | -0.4% |
| CFG | 1 | -0.4% |
| DECK | 4 | -0.5% |
| EQT | 1 | -0.5% |
| BA | 1 | -0.6% |
| FSLR | 3 | -0.6% |
| HPE | 1 | -0.6% |
| AKAM | 2 | -0.7% |
| NXPI | 3 | -0.8% |
| FICO | 3 | -0.8% |
| BR | 1 | -0.8% |
| WST | 2 | -0.9% |
| DPZ | 6 | -0.9% |
| TAP | 1 | -0.9% |
| NTAP | 6 | -0.9% |
| BALL | 6 | -1.0% |
| AMGN | 1 | -1.0% |
| CAT | 1 | -1.1% |
| DG | 2 | -1.2% |
| MCK | 3 | -1.2% |
| COO | 2 | -1.3% |
| HAS | 7 | -1.3% |
| FDX | 2 | -1.3% |
| UPS | 1 | -1.4% |
| HBAN | 1 | -1.5% |
| UNP | 5 | -1.5% |
| KEY | 1 | -1.6% |
| CASY | 5 | -1.7% |
| TSN | 4 | -1.7% |
| PTC | 1 | -1.7% |
| MTD | 3 | -1.8% |
| LHX | 1 | -1.8% |
| V | 3 | -1.9% |
| BBY | 3 | -1.9% |
| GPC | 2 | -1.9% |
| UBER | 2 | -2.0% |
| LLY | 6 | -2.1% |
| HII | 1 | -2.2% |
| PODD | 6 | -2.3% |
| PSKY | 6 | -2.4% |
| AVGO | 1 | -2.6% |
| C | 3 | -2.6% |
| IBM | 4 | -2.7% |
| IDXX | 4 | -3.0% |
| ALGN | 1 | -3.3% |
| OMC | 2 | -3.6% |
| ROK | 5 | -4.4% |
| WDC | 3 | -4.7% |
| TTD | 3 | -5.5% |
| EXPE | 4 | -5.6% |
| MGM | 5 | -6.1% |
| ORCL | 8 | -7.5% |
_Return contribution is each asset’s summed realized P&L as a share of capital. Total realized from closed trades: +96.0%_
## Year by year
_Strategy vs S&P 500 (SPY)_
| Year | Strategy | S&P 500 (SPY) | Excess |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| 2021 | +21.9% | +28.7% | -6.9% |
| 2022 | -17.7% | -18.2% | +0.5% |
| 2023 | +40.3% | +26.2% | +14.2% |
| 2024 | +21.0% | +24.9% | -3.9% |
| 2025 | +14.0% | +17.7% | -3.7% |
| 2026 | +43.9% | +12.9% | +31.0% |
## Robustness
Robustness screen: Overfit risk
---
_Hypothetical / simulated performance. These results are derived from a historical simulation and do not represent trading in a live account. Simulated results have inherent limitations: they benefit from hindsight and do not reflect real order execution, slippage, liquidity, or financing costs. Returns are shown gross of fees, which would reduce them. Past performance — actual or simulated — is not indicative of future results. For informational purposes only; not an offer or solicitation to buy any security._

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PG, WMT, V, CAT, JNJ, JPM

FUCK YO CAT

$CAT is overvalued

$DE or $CAT

CAT and KO