STX
Seagate Technology Holdings PLC (Ireland)
stock NASDAQ

I'd like to start by sharing a good summary by Howard Marks:
*The stock market is like an auction house. The highest bidder is the one willing to accept the least for their money. When the price gets bid up, the yield gets bid down. The market is currently participating in a bidding war for certain equities and volunteering their money for low returns, weak structures and high risk.*
The market as it seems apparent to me is back entirely in risk-off mode with the allure of unprecedented returns with any stock or sector related to data centers. People seem to be feeling like it's the norm for daily mid to high single digit and monthly double digit gains as sustainable. I'm seeing these posts everywhere:
"*How to find next MU, SNDK, NVDA, INTC , STX*"
"*How much higher Sandisk can reach?*"
"*MU and SNDK - What Now*"
"*I bought MU yesterday and wish I bought more.*"
"*Market is pricing MU wrong, Memory is not cyclical anymore*"
"*AMD’s stock soars as data center revenue jumps 57%*"
To me, it’s getting dangerous with how bid up all the AI stocks are becoming and the concentration in the S&P is a red flag. The outperformance of individual equities within the last 3 years in the S&P and what’s causing the recent bull run are basically all strictly related to data centers. I think Buffet's recent statement that the markets are currently in a state of casino-like gambling comes at a good time.
To clarify, when you are willing to pay 35-80x multiples for a company with or relating to:
* No earnings visibility beyond the next 12-18 months
* Recent 50-100%+ YoY earnings jumps
* 500-1500% increase in market cap over the last 12-24 months
* Hinging on 2T in RPO’s with over half from OpenAI and Anthropic (which are still unprofitable)
* No sustainable and profitable revenue from the sources of the capital expenditure that can’t even cover a years worth of depreciation
* A network and web of cyclical financing
**This is not investing, this is speculative gambling.**
The majority of outperformance in the S&P the last 3 years are in a small portion of the sectors, primarily:
**Semiconductors**
**Semiconductor Equipment & Materials**
**Computer Hardware**
**Industrials (Primarily: Engineering & Construction, Electrical Equipment & Parts, Specialty Industrial Machinery)**
Most if not all the data center equities that have rallied significantly in these sectors are at nosebleed valuations or euphoria that's priced so egregiously that it's expected this data center capital expenditure cycle will continue for the next 5+ years growing at these rates.
I would caution anyone reading to please not FOMO and avoid chasing the high in these sectors. This stuff ***will*** have a parabolic move downwards. Capital inflows of 700B+ annually into data centers cannot continue indefinitely and OpenAI / Anthropic are on a short rope. It could just take one earnings miss by NVDA, an S-1 by OpenAI or Anthropic, one random post or article to bring this house of cards all down.
**Everyone is scouring any corner of the market now looking for anything data center or AI. Look where people don't care to look right now.**
This is where long term wealth creation is. This is where the margin of safety is. Buying and holding these names long term at 40-80x earnings is a fool's errand at best, or a bad bet at worst. Sure, short term, there may be more upswings depending on how egregious the bidding gets. But if you're buying these names short term, again, you're gambling - not investing. My opinion is that there is a significant probability of capital destruction in the next 3-5 years in all the following names:
NVDA
AMZN
MU
AVGO
AMD
INTC
PLTR
LRCX
AMAT
KLAC
APH
GLW
GOOG/GOOGL
CAT
VRT
CEG
VST
NRG
FIX
GEV
PWR
EME
ORCL
ANET
WDC
DELL
SNDK
STX
ASML

MU, Hynix, Samsung are about 25% weight each
The smaller players like SNDK, WDC, STX, and Kioxia evenly make up the rest. It is the ideal weighting of the memory sector in my opinion.

**Top 10 Stocks in S&P 500 YTD**
* 🟢 Sandisk $SNDK +482%
* 🟢 Intel $INTC +190%
* 🟢 Seagate $STX +174%
* 🟢 Western Digital $WDC +164%
* 🟢 Ciena Corp $CIEN +127%
* 🟢 Micron $MU +119%
* 🟢 Comfort Systems $FIX +110%
* 🟢 Generac $GNRC +92%
* 🟢 ON Semiconductor $ON +88%
* 🟢 Corning $GLW +84%

I think we’re going to see a slight bump over the next week or two then a consolidation period… earnings season is just about over. It will calm down. We aren’t gonna see 50-100% stock gains in a 2-3 week time period for a few months. Summer is gonna consolidate.
I took max profit on a credit spread against STX, well before expiry, but when I started watching it 3 weeks ago it was trading for $580. Today it’s trading around $770.
I don’t see how that’s sustainable unless the amount of equities to put money in consolidates and there is no where new to put the money. But that’s not how things typically work on Wall Street. They want MORE places to put money.
I don’t think the market has priced in unemployment going up with the upcoming AI layoffs that have been announced and inevitably more will be announced.
Remember, when the hype is “The market CAN’T go down! Just buy any blank stock!” It’s time to get reeeeeal diligent about your trades. I think we’re moving into that phase. This earnings season was so ridiculously good, with everything surrounding AI, that things just went up waaaay too fast. It’s not sustainable. Think of a 100 meter dash. The sprinter is lightning when in the race but that pace isn’t sustainable over a longer period. Which is why there are recovery periods between races. The market just ran a 100 meter dash. Gotta bring the heart rate back down and gather itself before running another one.

Sold my INTC the other year after it was languishing in the 20s, had a decent sized position too.
On the upside, I’ve been a holder of STX since 2015 at a $22 basis, as well as LLY since 2013 at around $35.
These are the only single stock positions left in my brokerage link as I’ve moved most of everything into FXAIX over time. If I’d have kept the INTC, I’d have one more concentrated position to second guess holding.

Just buy DRAM and own Hynix, Samsung, Micron, SanDisk, WDC, STX, and Kioxia

STX employee here, I am getting daily LinkedIn messages from wealth managers. My unvested RSUs getting close to double my base pay.

Street targets are about $2000. VIX is the lowest it’s been. Micron and STX are doing well with WD. Sometimes profit taking isn’t needed.
Despite my pushback I offer you a gem (as a fellow Sandisk owner too). MYR Group, healthy financials with a market cap of 7B, shares +400USD with a decent P/E.

I sold Intc at $65, and 75% of our AMD at $265. Only have 20 shares of AMD left. Also sold our MU half at 300 and half at 550. It's almost 700 now. Also sold ARM at 155.
Kept our STX and TXN but yea definitely missing out a lot on this hardware boom... dang!
I have been in $RDDT since IPO and adding ever since, that's had a nice recovery as of late. Let's go for $250 a share! Need your guys' help pumping my $RDDT bags!

One opportunity you gdt it or you just let it slip. MU SK HYNIX SNDK STX WDC DRAM EWY

Literally nothing can make chip stonks go red 🤣🤣 MU SNDK STX

I’m DCAing while also trying to be sensible as well. For example, say every 20% move up STX makes I’ll sell and place the proceeds into something less risky such as SPY. That way at any given moment I’ll have minimal exposure to the risky assets while still capitalizing on the bullishness of the overall market. Realistically if the market corrects the losses that I see in SPY might negate most of my prior gains, but I shouldn’t see catastrophic losses.

My SNDK MU AND STX SHARES ARE PRINTING

Memory is essential for any kind of electronic devices and as technological progress accellarates we are producing more electronical devices that always use even more memory. Memory requirements have only ever increased and in this limited supply market there is such strong demand. Its still early, dont let the haters stop you. DRAM SNDK EWY MU STX WDC. These companies are trading at DISCOUNTS if you factor the fundamentals

Don't leave WDC and STX hanging like that

He’s just so bad at his job. He was described as Buffet, he’s a young guy that should be keeping up with the trends. He has BILLIONS of dollars to invest, why didn’t he take a stake in AMD, Amazon, Micron, Sandisk, WDC, STX, etc.

WDC, STX, MU & SNDK thank you for your attention to this matter

SNDK , MU , STX , THE JUICE IS LOOSE !!!!

AMD doesn't do even half the things Nvidia was doing last year. They're doing 1/3rd the things Nvidia is doing this year. (Groq, STX, Vera racks, robotics (thor), automotive...go on and on)..

A return is a return. I only have 4 stocks of SanDisk. Of my high 6 figure portfolio it's my smallest investment. In less than a month, I have 31% return for about $1340.
Put it this way: if you feel strongly that a stock will perform, put some money behind it. My biggest regret is that I wasn't keeping an eye on AI stocks last year. I figured my ETFs had some NVDA, Apple, Google, so I'm getting the benefit.
NOT EVEN CLOSE: Look at the numbers for MU, WDC, SNDK, STX, BE (AI energy) for the last year. These are midcap companies that could've 5-10x your investment in a year. So yeah, if you see a stock about to perform in a hot sector, throw what you have at it, even if it's a 1000, call it play money