FAST
Fastenal Co
stock NASDAQ

I have been actively playing with an order of magnitude smaller amount (the rest is in safer bets). My thesis was simple: after a couple of weeks of this war Iran was clearly imposing pretty serious hurt on the US with spiking oil prices. Moreover, why did this war start? Because Trump was worried about losing the midterms and a war usually rallies the country behind the current leaders. Usually, but not if you do nothing to justify it and not if it is clearly a war of aggression. On top of that the MAGA crowd is super sensitive to gas prices (driving them big trucks that get 9 mpg is NOT cheap). So when Iran didn’t result in the same quick operation as Venezuela the war became a huge liability for Trump. He starts looking for an off ramp. Iran also doesn’t want this war but they have huge leverage in terms of the geography around the strait of Hormuz and their stupidly cheap drones they can launch out of the mountains on the north shore where they have had *60 years to stockpile supplies* in the thousands and thousands of caves. The US would have to level mountains to take away that capability.
So everyone wants peace of some sort and they want it FAST. Every day of unaffordable gas prices erodes the GOPs chances at the midterms. At the start of 2026 they were all but guaranteed to lose the House, just a question of by how much. Either this war suddenly their control of the Senate was not at all certain. Think of how insane that is. And losing both chambers means almost certain conviction hearings, not just impeachment ones. Trump personally cannot afford this and every day the war goes on is getting him closer to this outcome.
The other thing you might have missed is when the US lifted sanctions on Iranian oil that was at sea. That move handed billions of dollars to Iran. You don’t do that in an active war with a country that makes $20k drones that you must intercept with $1m rockets, especially since this move only gave the world like a week of oil supply. The only way that move makes sense is if you are negotiating peace and this was one of the concessions. That happened benefit the ceasefire so the signs were all there.
Currently Hormuz is closed again. If it stays that way, on Monday everything will drop, and especially airlines and cruise lines because oil will gap up hard (you will see oil move with the futures trading on Sunday night). I might do a third play with JETS: it will drop on the closure and spike soon as the strait reopens. That’s a 8-12% gain in a few weeks and I have done this twice now.
Not telling you what to do, this is just my thinking. 

as the stock moves up the delta increases FAST.....
and before you know it its 100 delta and your stuck.....
it keeps moving up and your making nothing stuck in that position
then you buy it back at a huge loss and the stock drops
if your still bullish you roll downwards and bank the profits
or you just exit and use gains on another trade

Oh yeah, plus NDA and _insider knowledge_, I suspect that original thread was also created by him (by his alt, to be precise, which he immediately sacrificed via suspension - pretty easy feat and done automatically, just utter certain words in comments). And then he made A BIG DEAL in comments, that OOP (his alt) was suspended SO FAST! Obviously reddit admins don't want you to know those tightly guarded secrets...

I have been actively playing with an order of magnitude smaller amount (the rest is in safer bets). My thesis was simple: after a couple of weeks of this war Iran was clearly imposing pretty serious hurt on the US with spiking oil prices. Moreover, why did this war start? Because Trump was worried about losing the midterms and a war usually rallies the country behind the current leaders. Usually, but not if you do nothing to justify it and not if it is clearly a war of aggression. On top of that the MAGA crowd is super sensitive to gas prices (driving them big trucks that get 9 mpg is NOT cheap). So when Iran didn’t result in the same quick operation as Venezuela the war became a huge liability for Trump. He starts looking for an off ramp. Iran also doesn’t want this war but they have huge leverage in terms of the geography around the strait of Hormuz and their stupidly cheap drones they can launch out of the mountains on the north shore where they have had *60 years to stockpile supplies* in the thousands and thousands of caves. The US would have to level mountains to take away that capability.
So everyone wants peace of some sort and they want it FAST. Every day of unaffordable gas prices erodes the GOPs chances at the midterms. At the start of 2026 they were all but guaranteed to lose the House, just a question of by how much. Either this war suddenly their control of the Senate was not at all certain. Think of how insane that is. And losing both chambers means almost certain conviction hearings, not just impeachment ones. Trump personally cannot afford this and every day the war goes on is getting him closer to this outcome.
The other thing you might have missed is when the US lifted sanctions on Iranian oil that was at sea. That move handed billions of dollars to Iran. You don’t do that in an active war with a country that makes $20k drones that you must intercept with $1m rockets, especially since this move only gave the world like a week of oil supply. The only way that move makes sense is if you are negotiating peace and this was one of the concessions. That happened benefit the ceasefire so the signs were all there.
Currently Hormuz is closed again. If it stays that way, on Monday everything will drop, and especially airlines and cruise lines because oil will gap up hard (you will see oil move with the futures trading on Sunday night). I might do a third play with JETS: it will drop on the closure and spike soon as the strait reopens. That’s a 8-12% gain in a few weeks and I have done this twice now.
Not telling you what to do, this is just my thinking. 

as the stock moves up the delta increases FAST.....
and before you know it its 100 delta and your stuck.....
it keeps moving up and your making nothing stuck in that position
then you buy it back at a huge loss and the stock drops
if your still bullish you roll downwards and bank the profits
or you just exit and use gains on another trade

Oh yeah, plus NDA and _insider knowledge_, I suspect that original thread was also created by him (by his alt, to be precise, which he immediately sacrificed via suspension - pretty easy feat and done automatically, just utter certain words in comments). And then he made A BIG DEAL in comments, that OOP (his alt) was suspended SO FAST! Obviously reddit admins don't want you to know those tightly guarded secrets...

If I have a USA account and transfer money to it from a UK bank account (via FAST payment to the virtual UK account number) how are the GBP listed on the statement?
Does it show them listed under a IBKR UK or no mention of UK and all just show under the USA entity?
Thinking about potential FBAR reporting, if show under a UK (any mention of UK) entity then will have FBAR
Thanks

Anyone knows why for the past 5 years, the stock market rebound is so FAST. The Covid Crash, Liberation day crash, Iran war (almost) correction, the rebound was insanely swift getting to new all times highs. It's almost like you blink and you will miss it. Historically rebounds are usually drawn out and take time.
Is it the Indexing and passive investment which basically limits the downside due to buy the dip mentality. Does that mean we will NEVER have a long bear market in the future? In fact it could be argued that we will never have a recession, because it's hard to have one without a elongated bear market.

Figured I'd share this as a cautionary tale because I went full retard and deserve the public humiliation.
Saw a stock that had just announced a contract win. Tiny company, sub-$50m market cap, but the announcement looked legit. Price was sitting at 12 cents. I dropped $3k into it thinking it'd double in a week.
Spoiler: it didn't.
What actually happened:
Day 1: up 15%, I was already mentally spending the profits
Day 2-3: drifted back down to where I bought in
Day 5: a competitor announced they'd won a similar but bigger contract. My stock tanked 25%
Day 10: trading halt. Then a quarterly report showing they were burning cash faster than I burn through a bag of Shapes on a Friday night
Current price: 7 cents. Down 42%. I'm holding bags that could double as sleeping bags.
What I learned (the hard way):
A single announcement doesn't mean sustainable momentum
Small caps can move against you FAST and liquidity disappears when everyone heads for the exit
I didn't set a stop loss because "it'll bounce back" it did not bounce back
$3k in a sub-$50m stock is not a diversified position, it's a donation
The annoying part is I know all this stuff. I've read the books, watched the videos, told other people to do their research. But when I saw the chart moving, my brain turned off and my greed turned on.
For anyone here who's been in a similar situation, do you hold and hope, or cut the loss and move on? I'm genuinely torn because selling at 7c feels wrong after buying at 12c, but holding feels even stupider.
Not financial advice obviously. Just a bloke sharing his mistakes so hopefully someone else avoids the same one.

Bro i JUST DISCOVERED SPX. IT PRINTS FAST, imagine u did it at open. Shit would go Brrrr