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This is an AI summary of the facts block and updates.
## What the DD Library grades claims against (hindsight facts, v2 — current as of 2026-08-16)
Every DD in the library is rated against a fixed, published set of facts, not against a
reviewer's opinion. The block is versioned, every review stamps which version it was graded
under, and challenges to it are handled in public. Here is the whole thing.
**Part 1 — the 15 original facts (v1, frozen).** All 250 original reviews were graded
against these, verbatim:
*On the squeeze thesis*
- No MOASS ever occurred. GME peaked at ~$483 intraday on Jan 28, 2021 (~$120 split-adjusted);
the May–June 2024 rally peaked ~$65. Prices of thousands per share never happened.
- The SEC's October 2021 staff report concluded the run-up was driven mainly by
positive-sentiment buying, NOT primarily by short covering, and found no evidence that
widespread naked shorting drove the price.
- Reported short interest fell from ~122% of float (Jan 2021) to ~20% by Feb 2021 and stayed
low. Claims of persistent hidden short interest of 100%–1000%+ of float were never
substantiated by any regulator through 2026.
- Citadel was never margin-called into collapse; Citadel Securities remains a major market maker.
- DRS grew to ~75M shares (~25% of float) by mid-2023, then plateaued; GameStop stopped
detailed DRS reporting in 2024. DRS did not trigger a squeeze.
- GameStop did a 4-for-1 split (via dividend) in July 2022.
- GameStop launched an NFT marketplace in 2022 and shut it in 2024; returned to profitability
2023–24; raised billions in 2024 offerings; holds a large cash reserve and added bitcoin to
its treasury in 2025. No bankruptcy, no price "moon."
*Where the DDs were right — stated plainly, not buried*
- Fails-to-deliver and naked shorting ARE real, documented market phenomena historically —
but the predicted GME FTD/T+21/T+35 "cycle" squeezes repeatedly failed to materialize on
the predicted dates.
- Payment for order flow conflicts of interest are real and documented; the EU banned PFOF
(phase-out by 2026); Robinhood paid fines over order-flow practices.
- Archegos (Mar 2021) was a real swaps blow-up and led to SEC swap-disclosure rule proposals.
- Credit Suisse DID collapse (Mar 2023, UBS rescue) — CS fragility claims were directionally
right, though not via GME.
- Inflation DID surge (CPI peak 9.1%, June 2022) — inflation predictions were directionally
right.
*Macro and plumbing*
- No systemic US market collapse occurred in 2021–22 as widely predicted; 2022 was an orderly
rate-hike-driven bear market. Dollar hyperinflation did not happen.
- The Fed's reverse repo facility peaked ~$2.55T (Dec 2022) and drained to near zero by 2025
without crisis.
- Evergrande defaulted (Dec 2021) and was ordered liquidated (Jan 2024); no global cascade
into US markets resulted.
- DTCC/NSCC/OCC continue operating normally; no "great reset" of the US financial system occurred.
**Part 2 — the v2 amendments (added 2026-08-16).** Both came from challenges to v1, and both
carry explicit grading rules:
- **2023 banking stress.** The 2022 rate shock produced the 2nd, 3rd and 4th largest bank
failures in US history in March–May 2023 (First Republic ~$229B, SVB ~$209B, Signature
~$110B; ~$549B combined — more than all 25 bank failures of 2008 combined). These were
duration-mismatch bank runs, not short-seller, FTD or swap cascades, and were contained via
the FDIC systemic risk exception (est. $16.7B absorbed) and the Fed's Bank Term Funding
Program. No broader collapse followed; the Fed kept hiking through July 2023.
*Grading:* "rate hikes will break something" → **partially holds up**. "The break cascades
into systemic collapse or a GME squeeze" → **does not hold**.
- **Inflation containment context.** Containing the 2021–22 surge required the fastest Fed
hiking cycle since the early 1980s (525bp in ~17 months, 0–0.25% → 5.25–5.50%), and the
dollar *strengthened* to a 20-year high (DXY ~114, Sept 2022) rather than debasing.
*Grading:* "inflation will surge" → **holds up**. "The Fed can't/won't raise rates" and
"dollar collapse/hyperinflation" → **does not hold**.
**Part 3 — the errata trail (how the block gets challenged).** Challenges are logged with
evidence and a resolution, including the ones that fail. Two entries so far:
1. **"2023 bank failures fall outside the block's scope" — ACCEPTED.** The challenge argued
the block read as if nothing near-systemic ever happened. Finding: the v1 bullet stands as
worded (SVB failed in 2023, outside the 2021–22 window, via duration mismatch rather than
the FTD mechanism the corpus predicted) — but the block had a real scope gap, and a common
corpus thesis ("the Fed is trapped; hiking will break something") was being graded too
harshly. Result: v1 unchanged, new v2 bullet added.
2. **"'Hyperinflation did not happen' lacks context" — PARTIALLY ACCEPTED.** The challenge
proposed rewording it to say hyperinflation was avoided *because of* historic rate hikes.
The causal rewording was **rejected**: the block holds verifiable facts, not
counterfactuals. The factual context was **accepted** — the hiking cycle and the dollar's
strength are now in v2, which is direct evidence against the "Fed can't hike → must print
forever → dollar dies" chain. The inflation call landed; the causal model behind it didn't.
**The rules that keep this honest**
- A fact earns its place only if some claim in the corpus needs it to be graded fairly. This
is not a rolling macro commentary.
- Amendments never retroactively change recorded scores. A v1-graded rating changes only
through the dispute process or a recorded v2 re-review.
- v1-graded and v2-graded scores are never silently mixed, because an amendment can be
load-bearing for a given DD's claims.
- The errata file is never shown to a reviewer — reviewers see only the assembled facts.
**Challenge it.** If a fact is wrong, out of scope, or missing, open an issue and bring
sources. Accepted challenges become versioned amendments; rejected ones stay on the record
with the reasoning.
- Facts block: https://github.com/ErranttVenture/superstonk-dd-library/blob/main/harness/hindsight.md
- Errata trail: https://github.com/ErranttVenture/superstonk-dd-library/blob/main/harness/ERRATA.md
- The library itself: https://www.justthebros.co/library

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