LMT Reddit Mentions | ChartExchange

TL;DR: 1) Laser Photonics' Q1 2026 Earnings report was OK-ish; and 2) It's impressive that a niche penny stock company developed a product that defense stakeholders have expressed interest in. If the company is able to validate their Laser Shield Anti-Drone (LSAD) product with a sizeable contract/order from the Department of War, I think that would be enough for them to stage a comeback/be bought out due to high demand for cheap, effective anti-drone technology and an uncrowded market.
I think some of the bearish sentiment I’ve seen about the Q1 2026 earnings report is fair and I’m sure the share price will continue to fall as a result until we hear more about their progress in the Department of War (DOW) Mission Engineering and Integration Activity (MEIA) Vulcan Call for Solutions selection process, or large new/repeat orders. I still think this company is worth betting on because of LSAD.
Despite the seemingly inconsequential improvement from -$0.12 EPS to -$0.11 EPS between Q1 2025 and Q1 2026, they’re in a much better position than they were by the end of Q4 2025, albeit most of this can be attributed to warrant exercise proceeds. A few of the abysmal numbers in the [6/11/26 PR](https://finviz.com/news/361346/laser-photonics-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results) are a little misleading without proper context. Someone looking at the raw values might think a drop in gross profit margins from 39.3% (Q4 2025) to -42.4% (Q1 2026) within three months is indicative of a struggling company’s business model finally imploding. Yes, the company only collected $915,553 during Q1 2026. That is quite the drop from $2,290,282 in Q1 2025. However, that figure does not account for the $4.2M in backlogged orders (deferred revenue + contract liabilities on [pg.3 of Q1 2026 10-Q](https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/0001807887/000149315226028310/form10-q.htm#fact-identifier-345)). Depending on the timing, it's even possible the $4.2M total may not include the $1.25M in new orders announced via PR since the start of Q2 April 2026. For reference, Laser Photonics' generated its highest total revenue ($8.34M) as a public company during the 2025 fiscal year. In other words, the company has either already generated $5.12M (61% of their highest revenue year) or $6.37M (76% of their highest revenue year) two quarters into 2026 while expenses have stayed flat between years. (Note: I didn’t mention the “$13.2M repeat order from the US Navy” or the subsequent revised price target of $9.5 in “Northland Capital’s report” because there’s no evidence either of them exist.) The cause of the drop in gross profit margin was explained on page 21 of the 10-Q, “The deterioration in gross margin was primarily attributable to lower revenue volume and the resulting inability to absorb fixed manufacturing overhead and production costs, reduced production throughout, and changes in product mix during the current period.”
The last part of the quote is particularly important because it’s pivotal to the new bull thesis: Laser Photonics may have finally found a (profitable) niche with LSAD - their anti-drone technology. As made evident by how much of their operating expenses were tied to marketing in previous 10-Qs and 10-Ks, this company has been trying to get their name out there for a very long time. I suspect this will start to decrease by the end of Q3 2026 because of how well Special Operations Forces (SOF) Week 2026 went for them back in May. [On June 4th, the CEO reported that they received strong engagement from domestic and foreign defense stakeholders during the conference](https://finviz.com/news/359651/laser-photonics-and-fonon-technologies-highlight-strong-defense-engagement-following-sof-week-2026). First of all, it’s noteworthy that they were even a participant. Why? Because you need to be selected through a multi-stage, highly competitive process to participate in SOF. [There are three ways in](https://sofweek.org/2026-sales-process/): 1) You’re a Global SOF Corporate Partner; 2) Randomized Lottery Drawing for non-partners; and 3) U.S. SOCOM Alignment - “Additional lottery entries and preference evaluations are provided to companies offering technologies and capabilities specifically sought by SOF AT&L priority area for 2026 SOF Week". Thanks to the 6/4/26 PR, we know Laser Photonics was selected as one of 45 Accelerator Alley participants via option #3, which is why they [hosted representatives from the Office of Congressman Cory Mills back in late January 2026](https://finviz.com/news/291550/laser-photonics-hosts-visit-from-the-office-of-florida-congressman-cory-mills). So, after making it through the highly competitive selection process for SOF Week, [their LSAD tech survived a rigorous review and advanced to the demonstration/technical evaluations phase of MEIA Vulcan Call for Solutions](https://finviz.com/news/358892/laser-photonics-laser-shield-anti-drone-system-selected-by-department-of-war-under-meia-vulcan-call-for-solutions). They were also able to [produce the primary prototype for testing with more planned variants on the way](https://finviz.com/news/361197/laser-photonics-completes-laser-shield-anti-drone-lsad-prototype-and-begins-demonstration-phase-with-us-and-international-defense-stakeholders). (I’m skipping over the fact that LSAD was named a finalist for the Critical Technology Challenge at the Defense TechConnect Innovation Summit and Expo in 2025. [Related PR on 9/18/25](https://finviz.com/news/169364/laser-photonics-and-fonon-technologies-make-major-breakthrough-in-laser-shield-anti-drone-lsad-system).)

Suffice to say, I think it’s reasonable to state that their current momentum and potential trajectory is magnitudes better than when $LASE’s stock price skyrocketed to an all-time high of \~$20 in 2024 because of all the hype surrounding [L3Harris Technologies purchasing a ... \*checks notes\* ... “LaserTower COMPACT marking and engraving system” from them](https://laserphotonics.com/news/press-releases/laser-photonics-secures-order-from-l3harris-technologies-for-lasertower-marking-engraving-system/?srsltid=AfmBOoojYh1dgDgiJIsuksJR_E_j2amB4G7Mqsu3Xs0sOu2vK8BOlSBs). Wars have evolved yet again in the last decade and there’s a real need for a cost-efficient way to deal with unmanned ground platforms and drones.
Some notable examples (oversimplified for the sake of brevity):
1. In the Strait of Hormuz conflict, the Iranian military has been able to exploit geographical advantages using underwater mines and small, cheap drones to lock up oil and natural gas shipments. If the US walks away and allows the new “tollbooth” system (up to $2M per vessel) to continue, it would be devastating from a foreign policy perspective. There's also an overall sense of urgency as countries around the globe draw down their supplies.
2. In the Russia-Ukraine war, Ukraine has largely been able to hold their own and even gain some ground because of drones. At one point, they were even able to capture a fortified Russian position in Kharkiv without a single Ukrainian infantryman on site.
Even when filtering out international conflicts, there’s obviously a domestic appetite for counter-drone technology. The US has committed to strengthening airspace protection and scaling up U.S. counter-drone technology through executive orders like “Restoring American Airspace Sovereignty” and “Unleashing American Drone Dominance” and the Pentagon’s Joint Interagency Task Force 401 for anti-drone efforts. The counter-drone industry is already a multi-billion dollar market and it will continue to grow for the foreseeable future. There’s plenty of demand and room for LSAD in war. And its scalable, portable design means that it may have a wider range of deployment applications than the competition.
In general, Counter-Unmanned Aerial Systems (C-UAS) are being developed and used to try to flip the current economics of warfare in the other direction. Starting with the basics, it currently costs too much to try to shoot drones down with kinetic weaponry:
* US Army Patriot Interceptors cost between $3-4M per shot. Low-cost, long-range Shahed-136 drones cost about $35K per unit. That's a huge gap.
* On the other hand, high-energy laser weapons have been able to shoot down enemy drones for as low as 13 cents in electricity costs ([UK’s RF-DEW back in 2025](https://www.gov.uk/government/news/british-soldiers-take-down-drone-swarm-in-groundbreaking-use-of-radio-wave-weapon)). Another huge gap.
OK, so where does $LASE fit in all of this? What kind of competition would Laser Photonics face in the market? The best, of course. As you'll see on their pages, large military companies like [nLight, Inc](https://www.nlight.net/defenselasers). ($LASR), [Rtx Corp](https://www.rtx.com/raytheon/lang/ro/capabilities/products/counter-uas/effectors) ($RTX), [Northrop Grumman Corp](https://www.northropgrumman.com/what-we-do/space/laser-firsts) ($NOC), and [Lockheed Martin](https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/capabilities/directed-energy.html) ($LMT) have been developing and working with the US to deploy laser effectors for decades. A cursory glance would lead anyone to believe that the odds are insurmountable. And, yet, I would like you remind you that many defense stakeholders expressed an interested in LSAD at SOF. And the Strait of Hormuz conflict is ongoing. And the US keeps investing money into anti-drone innovations. That's because the modern drone warfare problem hasn't truly been solved yet. As outlined in [Department of Defense Directed Energy Weapons: Background and Issues for Congress (2024)](https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R46925), each type of directed energy weapons has known limitations that reduce their effectiveness in real-world applications. Maybe these defense stakeholders identified that LSAD mitigates or circumvents at least a few of these flaws. That's Laser Photonics' win condition.
As of market close on 6/12/26, $LASE’s current market cap is roughly 80.61M with 38,319,788 outstanding shares. What would be a reasonable valuation/re-pricing if they successfully land a $5M contract with DOW? How about $25M? $100M? How would you factor in the prestige and increased demand after winning a contract like that? How much of that has already been priced in? I don’t know. I’m not really a price target guy. Someone else will have to craft y’all a solid\* security blanket to desperately cling to. What I do know is that this has the makings of a really good comeback story and that’s what investing in penny stocks was always supposed to be about.
\*Below is my amateur attempt to derive some important benchmarks and forecast future share prices. Please be advised that it's closer to napkin math than an actual model. (In hindsight, it felt more like I was trying to make numbers work instead of trying to extrapolate value.)
Assumptions
* Outstanding shares total of 50M by the end of FY 2026.
* Two Warrant Inducement Agreements (March 15,2026 and April 26,2026)
* Possible dilution via additional warrants to survive or cover overhead costs to meet contractual obligations/deliver orders.
* Annual Gross Profit Margin of 13%+ and Operating Expenses decrease or remain at current levels or decrease
* Average of the last two years: 12% (2024) and 14% (2025).
* According to the Q1 2026 10-Q, expenses have stayed flat from last year so far. Annualized 10-Q expenses: Operating Expenses + Interest expenses
* Company recently paid down past-due debt.
* Average of at least $2.57M in revenue per quarter + Laser Photonics contracts with US DOW by end of FY 2026.
* Based on annualized revenue for Q1 and Q2: 2026 Q1 = $0.92M; 2026 Q2 estimate based on deferred revenue and contract liabilities = $4.22M. Quarterly average = $2.57M. Yearly total = 10.27M
* This is where I'm going to lose anyone who was still willing to give me the benefit of the doubt. Not only do they need to contract with DOW by the end of the year. It needs to be large enough for $LASE to break even/have a slight operating profit and paid upfront. That's not very likely or even legally possible depending on the agreement. I just wanted to demonstrate what it would take to get to this point. Keep in mind that it's possible they may also contract with the US' ally nations (... the few we still have) or other defense stakeholders to achieve this. The number is $75M by the way. Sorry for burying the lead. My intent is not to push unrealistic expectations, but rather to give everyone a sense of scale. Anything smaller than that and the company would be operating with a net loss going into CY 2027. I quickly scanned the internet yesterday and couldn't find a laser effector related contract award higher than $50M for some of the bigger military companies.
FY 2026 (Estimate)
* Financial metrics
* Revenue: $85.27M
* Cost of Goods (COGS): $74.10M (calculated using Revenue - Gross Profit)
* Gross Profit: $11.16M (calculated using Revenue \* Gross Profit Margin)
* Gross Profit Margin: 13%
* Operating Expenses: $11.09
* Operating Expense Ratio: 99% (calculated using Operating Expenses/Gross Profit)
* Operating Income: $0.08M
* Ratios and Price per Share
* Sales-per-Share: $1.71 ($85.27/50)
* Share Price: $29.32 (50/1.71)
* I'm clearly terrible at modeling, but this seems overall consistent with current valuation levels for $LASE and the usual multiple applied to Specialty Industrial Machinery companies because of their moats.
* Market Cap: $1,466.02M (50 \* $29.32)
* Price-to-Sales Ratio: 17.19 (1,466.02/ 85.27)
* Earnings-per-Share (EPS): 0.0015 (Operating Income / Outstanding Shares)
Here it is in tabular form:
https://preview.redd.it/gmzuwzqyr17h1.png?width=1257&format=png&auto=webp&s=dcf195f7af5ceafad73fcb46987aac394b7829d7
Please feel free to push back on anything I wrote and don't just believe me because I made a long post.
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P.S. - This originally started as a quick response to a few comments I read on u/Terodaktils’s 6/11/26 post about $LASE. By the time I was finished, I realized I didn’t want my efforts to go to waste in some random comment thread. Copying everything from the Comment Box to Notes to my email and then back into Reddit for this post was so annoying lol. By the way, I chose not to waste anyone's time with speculations about other potentially lucrative applications of their patented technology (see [12/4/25 PR regarding an AI Data Center Infrastructure Equipment Manufacturer](https://finviz.com/news/245269/laser-photonics-to-supply-robotic-cleantech-to-ai-data-center-infrastructure-equipment-manufacturer) for an example) or whether they may be able to climb out their financial situation using existing products and a lot more attention. Yes, that's not impossible, but it's a really hard sell this late in the game. They've been unprofitable since 2021 and their gross margins have averaged 13% for the last two years. For example, the company has previously blamed supply chain disruptions for a higher cost of goods or lower revenue. Worldwide oil shortages would only exacerbate those issues.

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LMT
Lockheed Martin Corp.
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