JPM
JPMorgan Chase & Co.
stock NYSE

lol I sold puts on cvna it’s been heavy support at $59 for 3 months will change my mind if it crosses over, NFLX and JPM are good 6 month out calls tho

SPGI, JPM, BR, FTKn,

JPM can make gold and silver do what they want. They own most of the fake paper trades on it.

People at JPM still think above $6k in 2027...

Consumer debt is at all time high. Monetary policies are tightening. SOFI trading at 33 p/e and 20 fwd p/e to me is pretty insane considering JPM is trading at 14 p/e Also, I'd prefer traditional IPO underwriting and trading over stablecoin business.

Banks and regional banks are all selling off due to private credit once again capping withdrawals.
Do not buy any finance related stock until
you see JPM recover as it’s pretty much the canary in the coal mine.
Sofi gives out a bunch if risky loans, and now with interest rates going up it’s more and more likely those loans will get defaulted on if theyre adjustable.

JPM is getting to an attractive price if it can hold 330

Busy data week ahead, with a heavy jobs calendar, MU earnings on Wednesday and no shortage of Fed speakers. Seasonality is also getting close to flipping back into a tailwind, with October historically the strongest month of midterm years.
Let’s start with Friday when I wrote that when it comes to political leaders, you need to watch what they do, not just what they say as talk of a possible US-Iran deal picked up,. At the same time that the more constructive deal headlines were circulating, the US was continuing to move military assets into the region.
Since then, Trump has rejected Iran’s proposal, oil is moving higher and equities are under pressure. DO note however that Axios reported that further talks are still expected this week… Do note that the iranian authorities said no talks will be held, the Iranian delegation remains in the US, which is worth keeping in mind. If there was genuinely no intention to continue talking, you have to ask why they are still there….
So I definitely would not say talks are 100% over yet, but the situation remains extremely fluid.
There is also a Trump announcement scheduled for 2 p.m. ET today. We do not yet know whether it has anything to do with Iran, but given how sensitive this market has become to headlines, I would pay close attention if you are actively trading.
Bond volatility is unlikely to disappear either as we have around 19 Fed speaker events this week, making this one of the busiest weeks for Fed communication in quite some time.
https://preview.redd.it/79m4b5gv29sh1.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=5f647d135b650d45c64da33e5ea039bc7f42b1ac
One side note here - whenever you are reading comments from individual Fed members, always put them in the context of who is speaking. Are they more hawkish or dovish in general? Are they repeating something they have already told the market, or are they changing their view?
For example, if a known hawk like Kashkari says rates are not high enough, that should generally matter less than a previously dovish member suddenly making the same argument. The change in stance is often more important than the headline itself. Here;s a quick cheat sheet on Fed hawks and doves
https://preview.redd.it/s45fwtmw29sh1.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=95108e11790d8142af6634a1146b1ece8274f86c
Credit is also starting to deserve more attention as high-yield spreads have widened around 28bp over the past three days which is the largest move since October 2025. While absolute spread levels are still relatively low, but the pace of widening has accelerated, which is something I am watching closely.
https://preview.redd.it/n2ab3pix29sh1.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=ea56b9547824ceaa0049d5319ec277b3372babde
We are seeing something similar underneath the surface in positioning from the latest CFTC COT report which showed some outflows across the major equity indices
https://preview.redd.it/8thmgwdy29sh1.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=40657b0f7b0a165710c76a8999d2ef1dc6fcf2f1
Thhis corresponds with the quarterly rebalancing as pension funds are 112% funded:
https://preview.redd.it/2dtfmv3z29sh1.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=de415172474eae87eb0eb95a605cc669b9ffc901
This is giving them more room to lock in gains by trimming equities and buying bonds that better match their future obligations and that will create some mechanical selling pressure in stocks and demand for fixed income over the next few sessions..
At the same time, the market is getting less support from corporate buybacks, meaning there are fewer natural flows available to absorb selling pressure.
On the diesel export ban, from a trading perspective, firms are already front-run the potential impact rather than waiting for the policy itself to fully hit the market and doubt will provide any relief for equites as it’s also been in the news for week
For this week the options market is pricing roughly an 11-point SPX move, giving us an approximate range of 760–780, with the lower end sitting close to the 50-day moving average.
We also have the JPM collar expiring on Wednesday as part of the quarter-end reset. Its current call is around 7,890 and the protective put around 7,090, so both strikes are outside the immediate SPX range.
The question is where JPM establishes the new Q4 collar as those new strikes could become much more relevant reference levels for the market over the coming quarter.
In terms of positioning, 765 is the first support but do note we have moved into a negative vol regime so market makers will not be buying dips and selling into rallies.
https://preview.redd.it/lueby0i039sh1.png?width=617&format=png&auto=webp&s=34315a97663cc372c70216d94a9ec473a9ccb277
QQQs ar eshowing a v similar picture but market maker exposure has gone more negative there
https://preview.redd.it/n7xv5u6139sh1.png?width=612&format=png&auto=webp&s=8ff3ab3647cd91d6e5f6dbfb92047e91193591c8
Volumes in both are close to neutral, leaning a bit bullish an VIX remains pinned bellow 16-17;
Overall, I remain cautious

JPM had the US on track to default within 10 years, 2 years ago, lol
Hence why I’m keeping lots of gold and silver

It’s probably fine tbh.
Meh… I guess I don’t really understand the fear about being overweight in tech. Sure if you are only in QQQ or similar that’s likely too much and opening one up to lack of diversification.
But VTI as a for instance is 36-40% tech as compared to FNDB being 18% (from Google, I didn’t compute this myself). If the broad market represents an increased investment in tech then what is the thesis that one should move away from that? Is it risk aversion?… I suppose that’s a good enough reason but one has to assume that it’s likely a non-optimal approach from a returns standpoint (esp after fees) and will likely just limit downside in a 2000-2002 type event and maybe limit portfolio variance. That’s more tracking a person’s risk tolerance and matching funds to it rather than an underlying fundamental or structural reason per se.
Further, I would argue that sussing out which companies are connected to and intertwine with tech is more difficult than one realizes. Sure AAPL and NVDA and META are *tech* and that’s obvious. But what about an FPL or CEG?… tech and data centers need power and those two companies have fundamentals that track to PPA’s signed with tech companies. Or GS or JPM?… tech companies need funding and there’s knock on effects if tech fails to these companies. Etc. it’s a fact of the markets that correlations of assets trend to 1 during market crashes. So one isn’t necessarily avoiding downside by avoiding tech. Sure, there’s universes and outcomes where that *does* end up better than staying more heavily weighted in tech. But there’s plenty of times where the opportunity cost of being more heavily in tech (ie aligned with market cap weighting) pays out and one never sees a tech bubble pop or the next market crash doesn’t involve tech going down further than non tech equities.
Missing out on gains that can be acquired via compensated risk is also, in and of itself, a risk. It’s why putting money under one’s mattress isn’t a good idea (at least one reason why).
No one knows the future which is why deviating too heavily from broad market funds should be done with caution. Even SCV tilts has many smart people on both sides of the argument and it’s an ongoing debate as to whether SCV is still effective post Fama-French.
Last point: FNDB and VTI have a 0.91 correlation since 2013 (FNDB inception). So they pretty much have moved together for much of the last decade or so.

>Good breakdown, and I dug into some numbers on this one myself.
>Against direct comps (JPM, BRK-B, V, MA, BAC), SPGI's P/E (24.58) sits in the middle of the pack, cheaper than V and MA (both around 31), but noticeably pricier than JPM, BRK-B, and BAC. ROE (13.92%) is decent but not standout, MA's is over 3x that. So on a pure multiple basis it's not screaming cheap or expensive relative to that group, more "fairly priced for what it is."
>Our model reads it as Neutral (not bullish), expected move basically flat, valuation described as "reasonable" rather than compelling. One thing that stood out on the balance sheet side: liquidity risk and market volatility are both flagged, which I wasn't expecting for a name with this kind of moat reputation.
>Insider activity is actually more interesting than I expected, several real buys this year, including the CEO of S&P Dow Jones Indices ($1.1M) and directors, not just the usual RSU vesting noise. Historical accuracy on these insiders' trades is around 50%, so not a strong signal either way, but the buying itself (rather than the constant selling you see almost everywhere else right now) is at least a small positive tell.
>On your actual question, retail trading volume feeding into index revenue, I think that's more AUM-driven than trade-count driven for the index licensing business specifically (it's the underlying assets tracking the index that matter for fees, not turnover), so I'd actually weight that as a smaller factor than the AI-capex-driving-Ratings thesis you mentioned. Mobility spinoff does make trailing comps genuinely messy though, agree with you there.

Look, I've always been a believer that Bobby is related. It's clear that JPM got in there and killed that guy to make things go the way they did, but it doesn't mean RC forgot about his old friend Towlie

Hello everyone,
I would really appreciate your input on the portfolio that I asked Ai to construct.
The Idea was to create a portfolio that first aims on resilience and second on growth.
The portfolio is intended for a 30 year timespan.
Theoretical funds to invest 500k+ €. (I am based in Europe)
Do you see any flaws? Do you have any improvements?
Can you reccomend or suggest me a different portfolio design that also mainly focuses on resilience and secondary on growth?
If so your input is greatly appreciated.
Thank you everyone have a nice day ❤️
GR 8.0 RO 90/10 FUTURE GROWTH PORTFOLIO
CORE PORTFOLIO — 90%
GLOBAL EQUITIES & INFRASTRUCTURE
14.40% | SPDR S&P 500 (SPYL) | IE000XZSV718
12.60% | Xtrackers MSCI World ex USA | IE0006WW1TQ4
8.55% | JPM Global Equity Multi-Factor (JPGL) | IE00BJRCLL96
5.85% | Avantis Global Small Cap Value (AVWS) | IE0003R87OG3
4.50% | iShares Core MSCI EM IMI | IE00BKM4GZ66
4.50% | iShares MSCI World Momentum | IE00BP3QZ825
3.60% | iShares MSCI World Small Cap | IE00BF4RFH31
3.60% | iShares Global Infrastructure | IE000CK5G8J7
0.45% | VanEck Semiconductor | IE00BMC38736
SUBTOTAL: 58.05%
DEFENSIVE & DIVERSIFYING ASSETS
9.00% | EUWAX Gold II | DE000EWG2LD7
7.20% | Managed Futures (MFEH) | LU3359622902
4.95% | iShares Global Inflation Linked Govt Bond EUR Hedged | IE00BKPT2S34
3.60% | iShares EUR Government Bond 1–3yr | IE00B3VTMJ91
2.70% | Vanguard Global Aggregate Bond (VAGF) | IE00BG47KH54
2.40% | iShares USD Treasury 20+yr EUR Hedged | IE00BD8PGZ49
1.20% | Amundi US Treasury 7–10Y EUR Hedged | LU1407888137
0.90% | iShares Diversified Commodity Swap (ICOM) | IE00BDFL4P12
SUBTOTAL: 31.95%
TOTAL CORE: 90.00%
FUTURE GROWTH SATELLITE — 10%
2.10% | Xtrackers Electrification & Smart Grid | IE000O7Q2E56
1.40% | VanEck Defense | IE000YYE6WK5
1.10% | L&G Clean Water | IE00BK5BC891
1.10% | iShares Agribusiness | IE00B6R52143
1.00% | VanEck Uranium & Nuclear Technologies | IE000M7V94E1
1.00% | iShares Digital Security | IE00BG0J4C88
0.90% | Global X Copper Miners | IE0003Z9E2Y3
0.70% | VanEck Semiconductor | IE00BMC38736
0.70% | WisdomTree Strategic Metals & Rare Earths Miners | IE000KHX9DX6
TOTAL SATELLITE: 10.00%
TOTAL PORTFOLIO: 100.00%
CONSOLIDATED SEMICONDUCTOR POSITION:
0.45% Core + 0.70% Satellite = 1.15%
VanEck Semiconductor | IE00BMC38736
Only one purchase is necessary.