JPM Reddit Mentions | ChartExchange

The pattern of sudden, large-volume silver contract dumps on Comex during illiquid hours (overnight Globex, pre-open Access market, weekends/holidays) has been a recurring feature for decades — not just the last few years. These “waterfall” or “bear raid” events typically involve 5,000–30,000+ contracts hitting the book in minutes, smashing price $1–$10 lower, triggering stops and margin calls, then rebounding as the selling exhausts itself. The mechanics and motives were broadly consistent from the mid-1980s until about 2020–2021, then began flipping hard (as we discussed for 2025–2026).
**2000–2020: Ted Butler Era – The “Concentrated Short” Blueprint**
Ted Butler began publishing detailed CFTC Commitments of Traders (COT) and Bank Participation Reports (BPR) showing the same 1–4 (sometimes 8) big banks held obscene net-short positions — often 200–400+ days of world mine production. This concentration was orders of magnitude beyond any legitimate hedging need.
Classic raid examples:
• Feb 2001 – $1.50 drop in minutes overnight.
• May 2004, May 2006, Sept 2008, Apr/May 2011 ($49 → $33 in four days, biggest ever), June 2013 (post-QE taper scare), etc.
• Almost always 2–4 AM ET or Sunday night open when liquidity was <5% of daytime.
Who sold (the dumpers):
• 2000–2008: HSBC, Scotia, Mitsui, later JPMorgan (after acquiring Bear Stearns’ giant short book in March 2008).
• 2008–2016: JPMorgan became the dominant shorter (often 30–50% of total commercial net short by itself). DOJ/CFTC later proved JPM traders spoofed (placed then cancelled thousands of fake orders) specifically to trigger these waterfalls 2008–2016. They paid $920 million fine in 2020, traders went to prison 2022–2023. Other banks (HSBC, UBS, Deutsche, Scotia, etc.) paid additional hundreds of millions in class-actions and settlements for the same period.
Motive alleged by Butler/GATA and later proven in court filings: Keep silver (and gold) low to hide monetary inflation, provide cheap metal to industrials, and allow the banks themselves to acquire massive physical positions at artificially depressed prices.
Who bought/absorbed:
• Managed money/hedge funds on the long side getting rinsed (the classic “spec washout”).
• JPMorgan itself — court documents and vault data show they took delivery of hundreds of millions of ounces of physical while simultaneously smashing paper price with spoofed sell orders. They flipped from the biggest paper short to the biggest physical long in history.
• Growing Asian offtake (China/India) via London vaults → Shanghai arbitrage.
**2020–2024: The Flip Begins**
• Reddit #SilverSqueeze (Jan–Feb 2021) briefly exposed the game — open interest spiked, raids intensified, but physical drain accelerated. OMC WAS KICKED OFF WallstreetBets! As well as the Happy Hawaiian and others!
• PSLV/SLV added hundreds of millions oz, Comex registered stocks began long-term decline.
• Banks still raided aggressively (e.g., 2022–2023 bear market dumps), but each raid drained more physical and cost shorts more via higher margins.
**Summary Table – Who Was Usually on Each Side (1986–2021 era)**
**see Grok for the answer**

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