JPM
JPMorgan Chase & Co.
stock NYSE

BTC JPM 295/290p 03/20 .54
sold yesterday for 1.27

JPM is using them to dump paper and worthless shares. Their shares outstanding have increased more than the gold price. Companies fail all the time. Look at Enron. The execs still got paid for years. They don’t lose. The foolish people holding the ETF will lose. Read their own prospectus. They mention this possibility as a risk

Well, don't blame yourself too much. The market killed every earnings release and dumped the stocks pretty much, or at least every stock of any significance. I took away the lesson if the market dumps JPM or GS, then step back. Thus I did not play any earnings this time around. Only a few had a market positive response that did not hold.
But today does look great right now, or at least pretty good. The VIX is back near 19 and needs to hold this level or fade lower. AMD and NVDA are responding very well today. Seeing AMD back over 200 is a big deal I had 202ish as low support which is broke below handily and has now recovered sharply from. The 5DMA broke below the 20DMA on this dip and still remains way up at 217.22. So that is the first upside target to capture. The 5DMA is in a sharp downslope now so will continue to fall for several more days. I expect it to be closer to the 210 level in a day or two.
NVDA is also recovering strongly today which REALLY means a lot to me personally.
MU is just beginning to get some traction and I will point out that memory is the gating factor to all of this additional CAPEX spend noted by Google and Amazon, so I expect to see MU, Seagate and Western Digital to roar back as well.
It is good to see crypto finally get some upside today as well. Sadly, I have not seen much correlation between crypto and the stock market, so do not consider it highly.
The SMH is up over 4% right now, so that is good news.
The SPX is at 6887 right now and that is great to see as well. I would like to see the QQQ much higher as it is just up 1.17% right now while the SPY is up 1.28%. Both could move higher if I just had a vote,...
Have a good day, and I do see the VIX has now broken below 19 to 18.66 and I really want to see it closer to 17.00. I might as well ask for the moon.

JPM WUT happen?
Why shoot up then no move? I sold...you need to come down again so I can "invest" in you again.
Come come....show me some movement.

Hi all, I'm a young (21) new investor. I have been learning about investing for some time now, saving money and waiting to gain enough knowledge of some concepts before creating a portfolio mindlessly and just burning my money. About a year ago (early 2025) I started investing and after some tweaks I would like to hear your opinions about it and changes I want to make or add. I will only explain my thesis on the top 3 stocks to not make this post too long as the portfolio is based around them and the rest are just defensive/hedge. Heres the portfolio:

GOOGL(17.16%)- One of my first ever investments, the one company I most believe in. Possibly the biggest and most successful moat in current times (Gemini, Youtube, Search, Cloud etc). Like I mentioned earlier I've been here for some time and by now I've made enough profits (70%+) of this that I've decided to trim it a bit (was 1/4 of my portfolio) and with those profits I bought some of NFLX and some bonds.
AMZN(12.55%)- Less convinced on this one however I still believe AWS is a giant generating cash machine and It's been a bit undervalued for a while now for what it can offer.
NFLX(12.67%)- Regardless of whether Netflix buys WBS or not I believe its a great company which can offer great value, not by its own shows (most of them are garbage) but by its great catalogue and moat in the industry.
V(12.22%)
TA125-10.58%
JPM-8.55%
McD-7.63%
JNJ-6.32%
Bonds-12.32%
I tried not to over diversify and at the same time concentrate just enough in the shares I believe can produce good value. However I do have some thoughts/concerns:
\-I started typing this post before Amazon published their report and after seeing their massive CapEx I'm thinking of waiting for the stock to rebound and then trim a bit. While I do believe in the overall value of the company I just can't see any justification for that amount and so would like to limit my exposure.
\- I believe the whole topic of AI and companies that rely purely on it are just overvalued, yes it seems that the market has recently realized it and started pulling back but I still believe that investing in the "AI hype" can be risky and even dangerous and so I'm trying to avoid companies that rely on it. Thats why I sold some of my GOOGL shares, didn't buy on META even though its a good business overall and was fairly priced not long ago and don't trust AMAZON CapEx.
\-Perhaps I have put too much weight in Visa, I bought this a few months ago purely for its reliability and hedge
\- I bought JPM because I wanted a defensive stock to my portfolio and thought that one of the best run banks in the world can be a good addition however I admit that having both JPM and Visa can be too defensive especially considering their combined weights
\- Lastly I have a good amount in short term bonds which I deploy when I see a great opportunity (like Netflix)
I would like to learn from you guys about what mistakes I made in my thesis/allocations or what new stocks should I add etc, comment down here or DM me. Please remember I don't have much experience however I'm always willing to learn and get better.

9 Feb: 100oz contracts, cash settled only, no delivery option. This is meant to declutter the 5000oz contracts. Likely priced similarly, it’ll mean 100oz contract owners are desperate to hedge using such an un-beneficial instrument.
16-20 Feb (or longer): More clarity on US project vault and price floor. Gov will likely price their floor close to the 100oz & 5000oz contracts. Above spot = desperate to win bidding war with China for actual physical silver. Below spot = will focus on ‘forcing’ Peru & Mexico to play ball. Go search who owns the mines in these countries. Also, to buy CME some time.
23-27 Feb: D-day (Dooms or Delivery, take your pick)
COMEX to raise hikes again no matter what as long as open interest for delivery cannot be met by their eligible inventory. Price will fall to extreme levels. Physical dealers will ditch CME price as no physical silver can be delivered. JPM will not use their vaults to fulfil CME as they know what it’s worth.
Q2 to Q3: 5000oz contracts will be discontinued, 100oz will take over. Soon delivery options will be available to reset its credibility. Price for 100oz will slowly rise to meet Shanghai prices until inventory = open contracts = Shanghai.
There’s a lot more behind this but these key points will be enough to plan your next moves.

MAJOR NEWS:
* ANOTHER ROUND US-IRAN TALKS TO TAKE PLACE IN COMING DAYS: AXIOS
* VIX down 8% this morning as Bitcoin bounces from 60k to remove some of the recent cross asset volatility across risk assets.
* Slight stabilisation in precious metals too as Gold bounces 3%.
* India said it is not selling U.S. Treasuries, pushing back on market chatter. RBI governor said recent changes reflect normal reserve fluctuations as the central bank supported the rupee, not a reduction in Treasury holdings.
MAG7:
* AMZN HAS FILED FOR MIXED SHELF OFFERING; SIZE NOT DISCLOSED
* Earnings were actually solid, AWS growth which is the main benchmark for AMZN came in ahead of expectations at 24% vs 21% consensus.
* But their CAPEX guide was WAY ahead of consensus at $200B which is the reason for their morning decline.
* CEO: "This is an extraordinarily unusual opportunity to forever change the size of AWS and Amazon as a whole...we are going to invest aggressively here to be the leaders...”
* AMZN - Goldman lowers PT to 280 from 300.
1. With a FY26 capex guide of approximately $200 billion and Q1 GAAP operating income guidance lower than prior expectations, AMZN laid out a strategy that places the company in an investment cycle across both cloud computing and e-commerce.
2. AWS re-accelerated growth and highlighted tailwinds from both AI and non-AI workloads.
3. Demand trends across commerce and advertising segments continued to demonstrate consistent compounded growth versus the prior period.
4. AWS operating margins of 35% were better than our modeling and continue to outpace headwinds from rising depreciation expenses.
5. GAAP operating income in Q4 2025 and the Q1 2026 guide included one-timer impacts, which result in adjustments versus headline reported numbers (link).
OTHER COMPANIES:
* HUBG - found an accounting error that understated purchased transportation costs and accounts payable by about $77M over the first nine months of 2025, forcing a restatement of 1Q–3Q25 results and delaying audited earnings.
* STLA - said it will take about €22B in charges as it resets its strategy after overestimating EV demand. The company expects a 2H25 net loss of up to €21B and a low single-digit operating margin, including €1.6B in tariff costs. RDDT - Needham reiterates at buy, PT 300. "Reddit is our top pick for 2026, based on: strategic position with 100% human-created content, which becomes more differentiated and valuable as large language model bots multiply; execution excellence, with more than 60% revenue growth for the past six quarters, ad revenues up 75% in 4Q25, optionality upside from large language model licensing revenues and rapid margin expansion; and the difficulty of replicating a human community like RDDT today, which creates a deep moat."
* VST - Goldman upgrades to Buy from neutral, raise PT to 205 from 200. we remain constructive on the fundamentals of the existing business, with current volume hedging levels, retail operations, and capacity revenues lowering volatility of the business. Our revised price target of $205 for VST implies 45% upside." DOCS - JPM upgrades to natural from underweight, lowers PT to 40 from 62. Despite an incrementally worse external environment, DOCS anticipates exiting 2026E calendar year as a double-digit grower (2x the market growth rate). However, management emphasized that this 1.5–2x premium to market growth is not expected to be linear and may not hold for every period. Updated guidance for 4QF26 fell below Street expectations, reflecting both lower revenue expectations and higher AI infrastructure investment as usage ramps."
* JMIA - Cantor Fitzgerald initiates coverage with Overweight rating, PT 18. "We are initiating coverage of JMIA with an Overweight rating and an $18 price target. Investing in JMIA is a venture capital-style, high-risk/high-reward opportunity in the public markets. Africa is the final frontier for e-commerce, with penetration currently less than one-fifth of many advanced markets.
* SNOW - Jefferies reiterates Buy on SNOW, PT 300, says its deeply misplaced, calls it their top pick.
OTHER NEWS:
* China’s central bank has tightened crypto rules, banning domestic and controlled overseas entities from issuing virtual currencies without approval. Authorities reaffirm that crypto is not legal tender and label related business activities as illegal.

The recent wave of price target revisions for Amazon (AMZN) from Goldman Sachs, JPM, Deutsche Bank, and Morgan Stanley offers a valuable case study in how institutional valuation models are recalibrating to the current macro environment.
​Rather than viewing these as simple "downgrades," it is more constructive to analyze them as lagging indicators of structural shifts that the data has been signaling for some time.
​Key Points for Macro Research:
-​The Lagging Nature of PT Revisions: These institutional adjustments often follow macro data trends rather than leading them. Analysts are currently aligning their models with the higher cost of capital environment that was signaled by labor and liquidity data weeks ago.
-​Pressure on Consumer Discretionary: The downward revisions (e.g., JPM cutting to $265 or MS to $300) reflect a fundamental repricing of the consumer discretionary sector. The focus for researchers should be on the spending floor of the lower 50% of the consumer base.
-​Valuation vs. Operational Strength: It’s important to distinguish between a company’s operational dominance and its structural valuation. These cuts are often a mathematical result of shifting discount rates and risk-free rate expectations, rather than a critique of Amazon’s logistical titan status.
​In this high-rate cycle, focusing on free cash flow resilience provides a much clearer fundamental picture than chasing short-term analyst sentiment.
​I’m curious to see how others are adjusting their valuation models in light of these bulge-bracket pivots.

Do they think the public is mindless? Was JPM able to anticipate a 40% drop in silver prices earlier because they knew their own team would do that?

Well I thought MSFT at $400, ADP at $230, and JPM at $300 would be boring also yet here we are. SMCI at $20 USA steal but you are correct that $25 would probably be the better trade.

Bian Ximing probably is on the JPM payroll.

We will know at market close tomorrow.
There is a theory that $70 may be the new price floor that’s just been set by government and it is likely being administered through JPM.
Could be an interesting day…

When I was an institutional trader / market maker you realize that the most educated make the most money. Flow went like:
1. hedge funds - CitSec/ JS/ Cube / Millenium
2. More sophisticated banks - MS / JPM
3. Less sophisticated banks - UBS / BoA / BNP etc
4. Small money managers
5. Retail traders
Further down that list you go, the less money is made and there is a direct correlation between where you are on that list and how educated and experienced in the capital markets you are

Shortly after the big bang occurred, JPM opened a trading desk and started shorting silver

Can’t JPM squeeze this guy? He sounds vulnerable .

You're reading chart as if it matters, JPM already said they will take it down to 50.

Hi Bogleheads,
My spouse (62) and I (59) are preparing to leave Edward Jones for Fidelity. After 15 months, we realized we’ve paid $4,000 in front-end loads on American Funds despite having no active management. We want to stop the "fee bleed" and simplify.
**Our Financial Picture:**
* **Income:** I receive SSDI and Veteran compensation (non-taxable); my spouse receives Social Security. Our current income covers all monthly expenses with a surplus.
* **Cash Flow/Goals:** We do not need these investments for short-term needs and plan to reinvest all dividends. We intend to "park" these assets for 7–10 years.
* **Future Concern:** If I pass first, my spouse will lose \~80% of our household income. The portfolio must eventually be able to bridge that gap.
* **Tax Situation:** Washington State (no income tax) and low enough income for **$0 Federal Income Tax**. We have a **$59k capital loss carryover** from selling the inherited home.
**Current Accounts & Allocation:**
* **Target Allocation:** 60% Stocks / 40% Bonds.
* **Taxable Brokerage:** (Bulk of our funds) - currently at 60/40.
* **Traditional IRAs & Inherited Roth:** These have drifted to **67/33**.
* **Timeline:** We plan to empty the Inherited Roth in 9 years to meet the 10 year rule. RMDs for IRAs start in \~9-13 years.
* **Cash:** $90k in HYSA
**Current Holdings:**
**IRA-1**
CWGIX 14.3%
ANCFX 10.71%
AGTHX 12.79%
AWSHX 13.29%
SMCWX 15.28%
BFCAX 5.6%
ASBAX 4.55%
ABNDX 8.4%
CWBFX 7.57%
AHITX 7.49%
CASH 0.02%
**IRA-2**
CWGIX 22.16%
AGTHX 29.29%
SMCWX 20.50%
AIBAX 28.05%
**ROTH**
CWGIX 14.32%
ANCFX 10.73%
AGTHX 12.82%
AWSHX 13.32%
SMCWX 15.32%
BFCAX 5.62%
ASBAX 4.56%
ABNDX 8.43%
CWBFX 7.37%
AHITX 7.51%
**Brokerage**
GOOGL $9900
AAPL $6900
BA $5900
AVGO $6210
LLY $5100
XOM $8000
HD $5900
JPM $8000
QQQM $37000
MSFT $5950
PG $5700
UNP $6450

EFA $40100
VOO $50100
VTV $38500
CWBFX $32500
ANBAX $32000
AHITX $33000
AFTEX $34000
ASBAX $33000
CASH $5000
The two IRAs and Roth returned about 13% for 2025, for the brokerage account the above allocation includes new funds added and rebalancing last week, however with those holdings our taxable brokerage account returned about 9% for 2025.
**My Questions:**
1. With a **$59k loss carryover** and a **$0 tax bracket**, should I just liquidate all high-fee American Funds immediately after moving to Fidelity and start fresh with a 3-fund portfolio or a less complicated portfolio than what I have right now?
2. Given the 10-year horizon but the need for future "income protection" for my spouse, does a 60/40 split still make sense, or should we be more/less aggressive?
3. Which Fidelity equivalents (like FSKAX/FXNAX) or ETFs (VTI/VXUS/BND) would you recommend for this "park and grow" phase? I prefer not to have anything that can't transfer in kind should a need to transfer happen in the future.
4. The nearest Fidelity office is 250 miles away and we are not opposed to driving there, a mini vacation is always welcome so we do not mind the drive at all. I know we can handle everything on the phone however I would like to sit down with a person face to face once a year for a review. Our EJ advisor is two time zones away so we don't get face to face with him either. Will Fidelity handle much of the transfer or will it require a lot of interaction between my EJ advisor and me?
5. When a person is self managing their investments will a Fidelity Financial Consultant help with any rebalancing advice? Will they help with initial allocation advice? Would they provide assistance transitioning away from equities and more towards income as we get closer to say 70-73 years old?
6. Does it sound reasonable to self manage now, then move to an advisor managed program as we get older? I do want to make sure we're in a position where if I die first my spouse can get the best help possible even if that means going into an advisor managed program.
7. Anything else I need to know?
Thanks for your expertise in helping us. And my apologies for the really long post, just trying to provide as much information as I can.

JPM went long at $76. You can bet the new price floor, if it happens, will be around that number. I'm feeling fine right here.

You've identified the core asymmetry that makes institutional fraud so persistent.
Once you've proven someone lies systematically, the burden of proof should shift - but it doesn't. They get presumption of innocence on each new claim despite pattern evidence. Meanwhile, proving *each instance* requires resources, time, discovery access that victims don't have.
JPM paid $920M for spoofing 2008-2016. That's 8 years of *proven* systematic fraud. The rational prior should be "they were probably still doing shady shit in adjacent areas during that same period." But legally and epistemically, each new allegation starts from zero.
This is the fraud playbook:
* Commit crime systematically
* Settle without admitting guilt when caught
* Cost of settlement < profit from crime
* Repeat
* When accused of similar behavior, demand same evidentiary standard as if you had no history
The "prove it every time" requirement treats each instance as independent when the whole point is they're NOT independent - they're systematic.
So yes: We can't prove JPM got tipped about bin Laden. But given their *documented* willingness to manipulate these exact markets during this exact timeframe, plus the suspicious timing of the vault approval, plus their deep government relationships from the 2008 bailouts... the hypothesis isn't crazy. It's just unprovable with public evidence.
Which is exactly how they like it.

The whole post doesn’t make sense. JPM committed fraud in the metals markets, that’s been pretty widely reported. That’s about all I got out of it. There isn’t any evidence here of how it relates to GME. Just that SLV is “rumored to currently be in a swap with GME”. I’m not about to mess around trading in a fraudulent silver market, I’m too dumb for that. I’ll stick with holding GME.