HOG
Harley-Davidson, Inc.
stock NYSE

Fair question lol.
Why do I post this? It's just information and information is everything today. I write up my own read, post it, and let the crowd tell me whether i'm delusional or not. It's an added plus that it makes me feel good, knowing that someone out there learned something they may otherwise have not.

I use my own tooling to scan insider filings, company financials, and other stuff I found important to the market.
Telling claude or chatGPT to 'write a HOG writeup' doesn't get you the Form-4's, the tooling to scan the 10b5-1 box, the insiders historical buy pattern, or the pricing on the loan-book sale. Reading filings and knowing what to look for gives you that.
If you aren't using LLM's to read filings, Wall Street is.

Fair question lol.
Why do I post this? It's just information and information is everything today. I write up my own read, post it, and let the crowd tell me whether i'm delusional or not. It's an added plus that it makes me feel good, knowing that someone out there learned something they may otherwise have not.

I use my own tooling to scan insider filings, company financials, and other stuff I found important to the market.
Telling claude or chatGPT to 'write a HOG writeup' doesn't get you the Form-4's, the tooling to scan the 10b5-1 box, the insiders historical buy pattern, or the pricing on the loan-book sale. Reading filings and knowing what to look for gives you that.
If you aren't using LLM's to read filings, Wall Street is.

HOG has a lot going on right now, and it splits cleanly into what you can count and what you can't.
**I**n 2025 they sold the $5B+ HDFS loan book to KKR/PIMCO at a premium to par, with the buyers taking an equity slice at \~1.75× book.

The proceeds didn't sit around: total debt has gone from $7.0B (2023) to **$2.2B** as of June 30, leaving net debt of roughly **$350M versus \~$5.6B two years ago**. Cash on hand is $1.9B, about 60% of the market cap, the share count is down \~20% in two years from buybacks at or below book, and there's a \~2.8% dividend.
Whatever you think of motorcycles, the balance-sheet's risk has mostly been amputated.
Median buyer was \~52 in 2024, recent reports as high as 57. The average motorcycle rider in 1985 was 27. **Among riders under 30 today, Harley's share is \~8%,** Honda \~42%, Yamaha \~23%. Revenue is down \~23% from the 2023 peak, and Q2 gross margin compressed to \~32% from \~35% a year ago as tariffs land. That's the entire bear case, and it's why the stock trades right around book.
They have a whole guy on this now, Artie Starrs, the newish CEO (ex-Topgolf CEO, Pizza Hut's global CEO before that), whose stated mandate is cheaper bikes for the next generation; he told Reuters the sizing and pricing of new models are aimed squarely at first-time riders. Backed by the "Back to the Bricks" plan from May, the X350 (light, \~$4.5–6K equivalent overseas vs today's $25K+ cruisers) finally reaching the US, and a rumoured **entry-level "Sprint" model** semi-confirmed by a June 2026 dealer letter.
The strongest counter-case is young riders skipping gas bikes entirely for electric.
Which brings in **LiveWire a company Harley itself owns \~90% of.** LiveWire is still losing money, but if the future is electric two-wheelers, Harley literally holds the disruptor's equity. E-scooters/e-bikes eating the urban entry segment remain the uninsured risk.
**On Aug 10, Starrs bought 10,000 shares at $25.89 for a total of $259K, open market**, the Form 4's 10b5-1 box unchecked (discretionary, not a scheduled plan), taking his direct stake from **15,000 to 25,000 shares.** Filing: [https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/793952/000173210526000006/0001732105-26-000006-index.htm](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/793952/000173210526000006/0001732105-26-000006-index.htm)
So: roughly at book, nearly no net debt, shrinking core, aging buyer, a credible-resume CEO buying his own turnaround. Whether a cheap Harley creates future Harley buyers or dilutes the brand that supports the margins is basically the entire debate on this stock.
Information, not advice. I build tooling in this space. No position in HOG.