HBM
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NVDA raising prices by 15%, HBM is sold out for the year and folks think AI is slowing down?
Problem with NVDA is regardless of their beat, insiders will make some bullshit reason to tank the stock so it can squeeze all the call option bag holders out if their money.

Nvidia is trimming memory because it can’t source enough HBM4E in time, not because it needs less. It actually boosts \*total\* demand: AI companies running models on lower-memory chips, still need to deploy more chips ultimately, and I don’t think SNDK / MU / Samsung will do themselves a disservice on pricing, as the whole ecosystem boosts pricing— some of it being locked in, some of it not. Stock has already fallen on this stale news— and likewise, SNDK makes NAND, not HBM. Still a degen bet with a 10-bagger setup, no doubt there.

HBM? Kklärt mich bitte auf

HBM Mangel soll ja bald zu Ende sein? Zumindest war das doch das Argument für den Abverkauf in Korea

SemiAnalysis hyped den Chip gerade extrem. Ich bin da etwas zurückhaltender. Auf dem Papier klingt das alles zwar sehr gut, aber die Realität sieht oftmals anders aus. Zum Beispiel waren AMD GPUs auf dem Papier immer Monster, in der Realität aber oftmals enttäuschend.
Zusätzlich gibt es bereits erste Prognosen, dass die Produktionsstückzahlen aufgrund eines HBM Mangels begrenzt sein könnten. Da hat Jensen es ziemlich schlau gemacht und seine Supply Chain frühzeitig gesichert.

I'm going to stop here:

The 15.4TB/s bandwidth shows its HBM4 can hit 10Gbps pin speeds, which would give it a slight edge over the 9.6Gbps Nvidia is getting out of its HBM4 in Rubin. The HBM is likely provided by Samsung.
[](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ZdtW!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0d7d181a-2bb9-45d4-bd67-2f7e525ce6d1_1426x376.png)
After all the pin speed, yield problems we've heard about re HBM4, I can only come to the conclusion that it doesn't matter what the fuck this chip does because Nvidia owns the supply chains and OAI will get a meaningless incremental amount in the future.

> That will be a lot of revenue but a chunk of it will be from Venice using 2.5D packaging.
Venice is not CoWoS though. At least the main high volume product (AMD may make some HBM variants like they did for Microsoft before, but that's small volume).
Venice uses EFB packaging which is not TSMC. But I don't know if Morgan Stanley makes that distinction or if they are lumping everything in CoWoS.

Very weird article (no surprise) once again from SemiAnalysis. Couple things that immediately stand out:
1. This is an apple to oranges comparison because we’re looking at an ASIC versus GPU, each having their own pros and cons. Perf/watt is a great metric to use and an ASIC may be suitable if OAI is planning to burn a model onto the chip, sure, but there are tens of other benchmarks and usages that make GPUs better, so only looking at perf/watt is being disingenuous.
2. Nvidia also has a specialized ASIC in production, Groq and the LPU, which delivers \~35x more performance per MW of power AND keeps the model weights in SRAM rather than HBM, making token prefill and throughput much faster.
3. Groq + Rubin NVL72 is already in full scale production, Jalepeno just had tape out.
3. jalepenos tapeout just happened as I said, which means full scale production, assuming the prototypes released by EOY are sufficient enough for them, will be \~18 months later, which also makes a huge assumption that they can even secure enough HBM to go into full scale production given the current memory crisis selling out the next 2 years worth of demand. At best, Jalepeno isn’t competing with Rubin, it’s likely competing with Feynmenn + LPU.
It’s great specs, but let’s not pretend it’s SOTA hardware right out the gate. At best, it’ll be a generation or two behind Nvidia, like everyone else when they attempt to go full production mode on hardware they’ve tried to release (looking at you, FAANG hyperscalers).

Ah ok, you're ignorant. I can try to help.
There's training in research, but training is research, like RL post-training
"a good enough model that can do most programming" suggests you're not a programmer in a major tech company. It's clear that: 1) the future is long-running agents running over development, testing, security, ops, etc 2) we will get there based on the fudmentals and performance right now 3) the models aren't there yet-- probably 2-3 years

Inference currently accounts for 2/3 of GPU utilization. No one has enough resources, it's not cheap, and currently SOTA infrastructure is getting more complex, not less: ASICs, larger dies, watercooled DCs, larger caches for larger context windows -> HBM demand and new architectures, and on and on. To say nothing of the software side: agent orchestration, data isolation, backfeeding for training, alignment, stability, and on

I think the HBM nerf is happening mostly because of cost reasons. Nvidia wants to keep server racks affordable.

They're not really the same question. CoreWeave and IREN will both grow revenue next year, that part's already contracted, the question is whether anything reaches shareholders after depreciation on the GPUs and interest on the debt that bought them. CoreWeave burned $5.7bn of free cash flow last quarter alone.
Micron's a different thing entirely, that's a cycle call on whether DRAM and HBM pricing holds. And CRWV and IREN are basically the same trade as each other, both levered buildouts funded by issuance, so really you're choosing between the cycle and the leverage.

Eh? HBM is part of the GPU card. You can’t destroy the card and (usefully) get the memory for something else.

I might be out of the loop on Nvidia news. But just now seeing it on SA that nvidia may be reducing HBM on rubin ultra.
Curious why you guys think this is. I haven't found any good answers i like. nvidia is exceptional at supply chain. it may be that HBM4e isn't ready so they are having to fit everything onto HBM4 capacity? It could be that via networking and software maybe there is really limited gains to be had by going with more vram? Could Groq be impacting HBM requirements?

What's the implied market share? LOL....and unlike last time where people claimed AMD used more HBM, hence had lower implied market share from HBM allocation data, this time you can't blame HBM. It's Cowos
[https://www.reddit.com/r/NVDA\_Stock/comments/1vxoi67/morgan\_stanley\_thinks\_nvidia\_will\_lose\_cowos/](https://www.reddit.com/r/NVDA_Stock/comments/1vxoi67/morgan_stanley_thinks_nvidia_will_lose_cowos/)

yes, "this time is different" is always somewhat risky. However the long term contracts for HBM make me thing there is something to that. At least the cycle on the high end HBM should be much longer than usual in my opinion.

Which one has higher moat, LLM or HBM? (Educational Purposes Only)

I’d be extremely surprised if any of these die hard GME bag holders knew the difference and could explain HBM and DRAM 

You can just scroll the charts.
Or,
AI is your friend, this is one take away: **AMD hardware is not dismissed.** MI355X can be highly competitive at lower throughput/lower latency points, it has more HBM than B200, and ATOM can beat certain Nvidia configurations.

NVDA earnings will be final nail in the coffin for memory bols. HBM efficiency and optimisation along with 15% margin reduction

Goes to show you how little you know about datacenters. HPC is high-performance compute. The lifeblood of datacenters.
HBM is high bandwidth memory.
APLD is not a memory company. It leases datacenters to hyperscalers who bring their own GPUs. APLD does not sell compute or memory. Learn a little more about the market before you throw rocks.
As for bags, I hold no bags in the stocks I wrote about here. I only buy when there’s a sell off when everyone else is running away. I bought my NBIS shares between $181 and $185, my APLD shares less than $26. My SLS shares at less tha. $8, starting a $5. Just bought about 700 more APLD shares today in the $26 range because that’s historically low.
Nice try. Next time, do you research and get your facts straight and this way you will not embarrass yourself. Associating HBM with APLD? Come on now. It ain’t MU or SKHY.