DOW Reddit Mentions | ChartExchange

Gotten downvotes instead of upvotes since the last couple rallies, and they overtake the upvotes during US daylight hours for some reason (like US price action recently, the US seems more negative than Europe :D ) but the structure is what it is, so I'll keep breaking down the main areas of interest. In addition, yesterday I also got some slack for saying we had been seeing a weaking structure (and comments about how we were sure to rise because I called what we were seeing weakness). But anyways, here goes.
We just had a breakdown in ETF flows which are now outflows. Last week ETFs snapped up roughly 26,000 BTC, yet rather than add, yesterday saw a little shy of \~2k BTC leave funds.
Macro is improving in the sense that fears of inflation, October interest rate hikes, and bond yields have all improved. Yet the DOW dropped sharply, Bitcoin rejected any rise from the positive print, and despite the NASDAQ and tech sector taking the news well, Bitcoin did not show much movement after the initial rejection of the open spike. This fixed position for Bitcoin is in line with the decoupling we've seen during sharp movements at other points during the year, and could be because current price levels are dominated by Bitcoin‐specific factors. Hard to say though, our drop did line up with some market fears and selloffs due to bond yields. As far as the environment goes, other than additional comments from Fed members, we're due a jobs report on Friday which could certainly shake things up again much like today. And we have important earnings reports coming mid‐month that are sure to have a profound impact on equities and risk tolerance.
On the Bitcoin side, besides switching to outflows and generally poor price action, we also saw a sweep of overhead shorts. I promised a chart today, so here it is: [https://imgur.com/a/J2Oct3k](https://imgur.com/a/J2Oct3k) Interestingly, shorts simply piled on as we dropped, showing real conviction among short sellers. I read one analyst say that he had seen leveraged funds shorting Bitcoin heavily, and it doesn't take too much inspiration to see how price action has been mostly down since reaching our local high. And despite objections on this subreddit, several points continue to worsen rather than improve, highlighting recent weakness that could persist for a while longer. On the flipside, eventually those shorts will close and add to buying pressure. For now though, ETFs have combined with already strong sell pressure to force us to the bottom of our range where we have made repeated attempts at breaking lower. As I mentioned yesterday, the only positive in this is we have some slight degree of higher lows when we break to the bottom of our range (which was reinforced today as we did not even attempt at 83), but since we have also seen a descending resistance up top, we're essentially getting wedged into a tightening range. If we tighten much more, we also increase the possibility of sharp breakouts, though this doesn't necessarily have to happen (remember how in July there were calls about impending price action due to tightening bbands?). We'll see whether support breaks, resistance softens, or whether we simply stay put while we consolidate in a very tight range before gathering the strength to reattempt higher.
Risks I see continue to be the liquidity pool just below our support (see the chart above), and a potential continued failure of spot demand to keep up with sell pressure. Sellers have been reinvigorated after months of exhaustion at low levels, and given we're at near record profitability, weeks of high sell pressure could be normal as long as these profit margins remain. Macro and other news could obviously cause us some pain, though for the moment what's on the horizon doesn't seem all that negative (or at least, outlook isn't worsening). After so many attempts down, I can see us breaking into a slightly lower range, but I don't see a substantial increase in range (>85) taking place until spot improves. Breaking far out of range would currently not seem to be in line with our structural setup. That said, if the 83 line holds strong and we continue to sink only to higher lows, creeping up to 84 would not be out of the question.
TL;DR Not too much has changed other than ETF flows. Structure remains weak yet holds, though with a worsening position due to spot/ETFs. We swept some upside liquidity, but those shorts were quickly replaced with new ones as sentiment remains negative in the short term. Macro has improved a little, lows seem to hold for now encouraging higher lows today. Important macro news on Friday and then earnings coming in that could shift bread global market sentiment.

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