D
Dominion Energy, Inc Common Stock
stock NYSE

sehr wichtiger kommentar. OP klingt sehr engstirnig, was das angeht und macht sich noch kein bild davon, wie lange 3 jahre mit kindern zuhause sind :D

Ich frag mich eher, warum Geld, das sich nicht im allgemeinen Zahlungsverkehr befindet, dem Bargeld gleichgestellt ist, was sich nicht im allgemeinen Zahlungsverkehr befindet :D
Aber ich habs glaub ich verstanden. Im Grunde ist es einfach nur Online-Banking, auf das (Privat)-Banken keinen Einfluss nehmen können. Sinnvoll wird es dadurch aber noch nicht :D

Der Post hätte 1:1 von mir sein können :D befinde mich seit bestimmt schon 2 Jahren in dieser Phase und wirklich jedes Mal, wenn ich wieder meine in ear Kopfhörer verwenden muss, verfluche ich mich dafür 😅

Ich seh es halt hauptsächlich nicht ein, 200€ mehr zu zahlen, weil das Modell gerade frisch rausgekommen ist. Dann warte ich, schau ab und an ob jemand was Gutes auf Kleinanzeigen verkauft, aber kauf es dann trotzdem nicht 🤦‍♀️
Sollen wir einfach einen Pakt schließen jetzt endlich neue Kopfhörer zu kaufen? (Ein bisschen den Druck erhöhen hilft ja gerne mal)

This is the classic valuation trap that many bears fall into. Comparing trailing P/E ratios at the absolute inflection point of a hardware transition is a fundamental misunderstanding of forward earnings power and operating leverage.
Here is why your 'already priced in' thesis is structurally incorrect:
**1. The Trailing vs. Forward P/E Illusion**
AMD's trailing P/E of \~174x is a backward-looking mirage. It reflects a trailing 12-month period weighed down by the cyclical trough of client PCs, gaming console declines, and the massive upfront R&D/ramp-up costs of the MI300/MI325 series (high fixed costs, low initial volumes).
When you transition from high fixed-cost R&D to high-volume shipping, Operating Leverage kicks in. Under our modeled 2028 scenario (27% global TAM share generating $26.6 to $30+ EPS), AMD’s Forward P/E at the current \~$580 share price is actually only \~19x to 22x. For a company growing its data center segment at a triple-digit CAGR, a forward multiple near 20x is criminally undervalued.
**2. Nvidia's 32x P/E is 'Peak Earnings,' Not Value**
Nvidia's relatively low P/E of 32x is a classic sign of cyclical peak earnings. It reflects a temporary 95% monopoly with unsustainable 55%+ net margins that cannot physically persist as big tech alternatives and AMD chiplets scale. When a monopoly starts losing share, its multiple contracts. Nvidia is priced for a permanent monopoly; AMD is priced for a niche player.
**3. What is Actually 'Priced In'?**
The YTD run-up (+147%) priced in the fact that AMD *survived* and proved it can build a viable MI300 silicon.
What the market has **NOT** priced in yet is AMD establishing a permanent **40:60 merchant duopoly** with Nvidia, capturing 30% of the massive inference market, and utilizing Xilinx's adaptive logic to capture the semi-custom ASIC overflow.
If the market had actually priced in a $100B+ revenue base and $30 EPS, AMD wouldn't be sitting at $580 today. It would be at $1,000+. You are looking at the rearview mirror while we are mapping the next 3 years of the S-curve.

Die laufen zu Kindergarten, Schule, Sportverein, Musikunterricht und Kinderarzt? Glaubst du doch selber nicht :D

Wenn man nicht aktiv spart und keinen Notgroschen hat ist es recht einfach in eine Falle zu rutschen.
War auch mal an dem Punkt, bin aber mittlerweile raus aus dem Loch :D

They are going to D. U M P

Hast du irgendwie eine Obsession mit Lehrern?
Oder bist du am Studium/Ref gescheitert? :D

Is Robinhood social the new place to get highly regarded D&D

Ja kinderzuschlag ballert brutal kannst dir bei 5+ Kids Richtig was leisten :D

A friend got in a position similar to yours. His solution was crude, but kind of worked.
First of all, you have a diversified position, so in the worst case you could just move it to a separate self directed zero fee account and ignore it. That was his first action. Simply opening another account at a mainline broker (Fidelity, Schwab, E-trade, etc).
Make sure all the cost basis info was transferred correctly. You will not only have many separate holdings, but also many, many, separate lots.
He then started simplifying by first looking for stocks where the entire holding was small in dollar value. He liquidated those first.
After that cleanup, he started looking at individual lots and liquidating those, starting from the smallest.
As he did the above he just watched the YTD realized long and short term gain that his broker showed in the app and tried to avoid running up too large of a tax bill.
As I said, it ws pretty crude, and as best I could tell he totally ignored fundamentals and did not try and predict the future price of any stock.
He spread out his exit over 2 or 3 years. His CPA did not have any problem with the many stock sales as they just entered summary numbers into sked D/form 8949 and attached a pdf of c,owed positions from the broker.

Und dann noch eine Woche.
Und dann noch eine Woche.
Und dann ärgern, dass es ausverkauft ist.
Und dann irgendeine schlechtere und teurere Alternative kaufen.
Das ist oft meine Taktik. :D

What matters the most is the code in Box 12 of your W-2, because that's what the IRS sees.
* Code **D** is pre-tax contribution to a 401(k).
* Code **AA** is Roth contribution to a 401(k).
Perhaps an unpopular opinion, but if your company messed this up but reported the Roth code (**AA**), then I wouldn't worry about it. For all intents and purposes, you have Roth contributions, and if it were me, I'd treat them as such with no further thought.
If they made a mistake with the contribution BUT coded it as pre-tax (**D**), then you have a problem to sort out.

Na da bin ich aber beruhigt. Dachte die müssen durch Hormuz :D

INVH, D, SGHC

Exhibit D and D

ASML dropped its Q2 2026 earnings (quarter ended June 2026) before the US market open, and honestly, it's one of the cleanest beat-and-raise quarters we've seen from them in a while.
# The Headline Numbers
Revenue came in at €9.33 billion, up 21% year-over-year and comfortably ahead of the €8.85 billion the Street was modeling. The growth engine this quarter was TSMC and Korean memory customers loading up on lithography systems, plus a nice bump in service revenue.
Gross margin landed at 54%, well above the company's own guidance of 51-52%. That upside basically came down to mix: services carry fatter margins than hardware, and services grew faster than the overall business this quarter.
Net income was €2.9 billion, up 27% year-over-year, with a 31% net margin. Nothing complicated here — more revenue plus fatter margins equals more profit falling to the bottom line.
https://preview.redd.it/uozfsga7rddh1.png?width=2048&format=png&auto=webp&s=39c6482021943af754f8805030db4dff8dc263a8
ASML Q2 2026 financial snapshot — revenue, margins, and next-quarter guide vs. consensus
# Breaking Down the Business
ASML makes money two ways: selling lithography machines (systems) and servicing the ones already in the field. This quarter, systems revenue was €6.56 billion (+17% YoY) and service revenue was €2.76 billion (+32% YoY), roughly a 7:3 split.
Within systems, two product lines matter most — EUV and ArFi (immersion DUV) — together making up about 60% of total revenue.
https://preview.redd.it/p8z2lha7rddh1.png?width=670&format=png&auto=webp&s=149f06c50b964c2264bfc994c434878a1b74def0
System sales mix — EUV keeps eating share from ArFi and older tech
EUV: roughly €3.7 billion in revenue this quarter. ASML shipped 16 EUV units, flat versus last quarter but better than the 14 units the market expected, driven by TSMC and Korean customers.
ArFi: about €1.9 billion in revenue. Shipments were 23 units, up 6 from last quarter, though Chinese demand for this product line has been cooling off.
Average selling prices tell an interesting story too: Longbridge Dolphin Research estimates EUV machines are going for around €230 million a pop this quarter, while ArFi tools sell for about €83 million — roughly a 3:1 price ratio, which has stayed pretty consistent.
# Who's Buying, and Where
South Korea was the single biggest region this quarter, at 43% of revenue (roughly €4 billion), driven by Samsung and SK Hynix ramping up memory-related capex.
Mainland China came in at about €1.3 billion, or 14% of revenue — notably lower than the "around 20%" the company had flagged in prior communication. Part of that softness ties back to ongoing regulatory uncertainty (more on that below).
https://preview.redd.it/rg0lwja7rddh1.png?width=646&format=png&auto=webp&s=df42d1675af9f8326e4c42333c4e88d78800c43a
Revenue by region — Korea takes the top spot as China's share keeps shrinking
One thing worth flagging: ASML stopped disclosing order backlog numbers starting last quarter, which is a bit of a bummer since bookings data used to be a great forward-looking signal. We'll be watching what management says about this on the earnings call.
# The Real Headline: Guidance Got Bumped, Again
Here's where it gets interesting. Management guided Q3 revenue to €11.0-12.0 billion, way above the €10.3 billion consensus, with gross margin guided to 55-57% versus the 52.5% the Street expected.
But the bigger deal is the full-year guidance. ASML raised its 2026 revenue outlook to €43-45 billion (up from a prior €36-40 billion), implying 31-37% growth for the year, with gross margin now expected at 54-56%.
To put that in perspective: most analysts had been modeling something like €39.5-40 billion for the full year. The new guidance blows past basically everyone's number. Doing the math on the new guide, second-half revenue growth needs to accelerate to roughly 45-55%, a massive jump from Q2's 21%. Translation: the back half of the year is shaping up to be a genuinely different growth regime than the first half.
Implied Q4 revenue works out to somewhere around €14-15 billion, meaning the major foundries and memory makers are expected to load up hard in the second half.
# Why Capital Spending Downstream Is the Thing to Watch
TSMC, Intel, and Samsung are ASML's biggest customers, so their capex plans are basically a leading indicator for ASML's own results. Putting together the guidance from the major players, Longbridge Dolphin Research estimates logic-chip capex could grow over 20% in 2026, while memory-chip capex could grow around 40%.
Micron just raised its full-year capex guidance again, from $25 billion to $27 billion. TSMC had already lifted its own full-year capex guide to $54-56 billion, and the Street's expectations for TSMC capex have crept up past $56 billion since then.
https://preview.redd.it/hqz3ria7rddh1.png?width=641&format=png&auto=webp&s=c121691144a9d7a00b7553ae90ac5b17fbf40b5e
ASML total revenue by quarter — systems vs. service, with YoY growth
Compare that to last quarter, when ASML's own full-year guidance was still sitting at €36-40 billion — now it's jumped to €43-45 billion. That gap is basically unplanned, incremental demand, and Longbridge Dolphin Research thinks most of it is coming from memory makers placing rush orders.
There are two reasons memory makers are suddenly so eager: first, they've made a ton of money in the current up-cycle and have plenty of cash to spend on new or upgraded equipment. Second, EUV genuinely simplifies memory manufacturing.
For the trickiest layers in DRAM production (the cell array and storage node layers), using older DUV tech means multiple exposure and etching passes, while a single EUV exposure can do the same job — saving process steps, shortening cycle time, and improving yield.
Micron confirmed on its own earnings call that it has signed a multi-year EUV supply deal with ASML — the first time Micron has ordered EUV tools at real scale, marking a full embrace of EUV-based DRAM manufacturing. Up through its 1-beta node, Micron leaned entirely on DUV multi-patterning; its upcoming 1-gamma node will be the company's first EUV-based node.
# High-NA EUV: The Next Big Thing, Just Not Yet
Once chipmakers push below the 2nm mark, High-NA EUV becomes the core tool for the job. Both TSMC and Intel have already bought ASML's flagship High-NA systems for R&D on their next-gen nodes.
High-NA EUV can simplify the entire manufacturing flow, cut non-lithography costs, and boost yield — layers that used to need multiple exposures with older Low-NA EUV tools can now be patterned in a single pass. That's a meaningful jump in "lithography intensity" per wafer.
https://preview.redd.it/00k95ja7rddh1.png?width=1577&format=png&auto=webp&s=acd80d526240530fd47cfb1a5dc82942e5bf3280
High-NA EUV adoption timeline by chipmaker — real volume still looks like a 2028+ story
That said, looking at how each company is actually rolling things out, Longbridge Dolphin Research thinks TSMC's early 2nm node and Intel's 18A will both still lean on the older Low-NA EUV tools for now, mainly to protect yield.
TSMC has explicitly said it's in no rush to adopt High-NA, for cost and yield reasons — Longbridge Dolphin Research expects the real shipment ramp for High-NA EUV tools to land in 2028 or later. Given that TSMC's capex keeps climbing anyway, it's a safe bet that most of that extra spending is still going toward more Low-NA EUV purchases rather than High-NA.
For context on pricing, High-NA tools run around €400 million a unit versus roughly €200 million for Low-NA — so as adoption eventually ramps, it becomes a meaningful new revenue lever for ASML down the road.
# The One Risk Worth Knowing About
The main overhang here is a bill currently moving through the US Congress, sometimes referred to as the MATCH Act. As proposed, it would add immersion DUV lithography systems (and related maintenance services) to the export control list, specifically targeting capacity expansion at sub-7nm advanced logic and memory fabs in China. It's still working its way through the legislative process and hasn't been signed into law yet, but if it passes, it could affect how — and how much — Chinese customers are able to buy going forward.
# Wrapping Up
Zooming out: even with the broader AI trade getting hit hard recently, ASML's stock has held up noticeably better than the group, only pulling back about 15% versus much steeper declines elsewhere. That resilience tracks with what's actually happening in the business — downstream capex from the biggest foundries and memory makers keeps climbing, and that's about as close to a "real" earnings tailwind as you can get, as opposed to just sentiment.
The two things we're watching from here: whether management gives any color on order backlog during the call (since they've stopped reporting the actual numbers), and how the MATCH Act situation develops given the direct read-through to China-related sales.
Bottom line: strong quarter, even stronger guidance, and the setup for the second half of 2026 looks like a genuine step-change in demand rather than a one-off beat.
This piece is compiled by Longbridge Dolphin Research for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

luetunymmärtäminen 5/5 :D

Mitä vittua nyt taas :D herätys, hommaa töitä

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