CYA
Simplify Tail Risk Strategy ETF
stock NYSE

So keep some warrants to CYA if shit gets out of hand 

"20-30 years" <> "immediate past"....
Your advice is to ignore history and bet on something that has a proven *losing* record (in comparison) instead?
What makes you think that it is *less* likely that what has worked well for the past few decades won't work for the next few? Nobody *knows* what the future holds, so we make our best estimate. And where does "best estimate of future behavior" come from? *Past behavior*, in the absence of *clear evidence* that there has been a significant change of some kind.
*Basically everything we do in life* is based on the expectation that ***the past does predict the future***. "The last time I touched a hot stove, I got burned, so I'll remember to not do that in the future. The last time I didn't take my umbrella on a cloudy looks-like-rain day, I got wet, so I'm taking one today. The last time I "proved" to my wife that she was wrong about something that had upset her, I was in the doghouse for days, so this time I'm just going to listen, sympathize, and support."
Why do you expect the sun to come up tomorrow morning? By your "logic", you shouldn't.
The "past performance does not guarantee..." disclaimer (and they usually say "guarantee", not "predict") is a CYA effort to preemptively avoid lawsuits. It isn't a guideline for living your life. Because the past *does* predict the future.

So keep some warrants to CYA if shit gets out of hand 

"20-30 years" <> "immediate past"....
Your advice is to ignore history and bet on something that has a proven *losing* record (in comparison) instead?
What makes you think that it is *less* likely that what has worked well for the past few decades won't work for the next few? Nobody *knows* what the future holds, so we make our best estimate. And where does "best estimate of future behavior" come from? *Past behavior*, in the absence of *clear evidence* that there has been a significant change of some kind.
*Basically everything we do in life* is based on the expectation that ***the past does predict the future***. "The last time I touched a hot stove, I got burned, so I'll remember to not do that in the future. The last time I didn't take my umbrella on a cloudy looks-like-rain day, I got wet, so I'm taking one today. The last time I "proved" to my wife that she was wrong about something that had upset her, I was in the doghouse for days, so this time I'm just going to listen, sympathize, and support."
Why do you expect the sun to come up tomorrow morning? By your "logic", you shouldn't.
The "past performance does not guarantee..." disclaimer (and they usually say "guarantee", not "predict") is a CYA effort to preemptively avoid lawsuits. It isn't a guideline for living your life. Because the past *does* predict the future.