BG
Bunge Global SA
stock NYSE

Fair to worry about this one, but LNN is a rough way to play it. Irrigation demand doesn't spike in the drought year, it spikes the year after, when farmers finally have the cash and the reason to spend it. In a bad year capex gets defered and the order book goes quiet right when you'd expect it to explode. BG is a crush margin and trade flow story more than a weather story anyway, and South America tends to get rain in an El Niño year, which cuts against the drought thesis you're buying. The forecast has been public since spring so nobody is early on this.

trading crop futures directly during El Niño is a trap for retail due to extreme volatility and roll costs. shifting exposure to major ag-traders (BG, ADM), fertilizer plays (NTR, CF), or ag-broad ETFs gives you direct leverage to soaring soft commodity prices without the headache of managing futures contracts

So we've got climate agencies around the world screaming that this year's El Nino is gonna be brutal. Those of you who don't believe in science might want to skip this discussion.
For the smarties, where is the money making trade for the next 6-12 months? I ran the question past a few AIs and got only some consensus.
At the top was LNN. They sell mechanized irrigation systems which are crucial during farm-level drought. BG is another as a pure agribusiness play.
Curious to hear your thoughts.

Wahrscheinlich ist mal jemand mit Messer auf der Treppe gestürzt, hat sich verletzt und jemanden verklagt.
Man könnte natürlich auch einfach Sicherheitsmesser mit einziehender Klinge nehmen.
Was Schulung angeht: ich würde in einer jährlichen Sicherheitsunterweisung Leuten, die mit Kartonmessern etc. arbeiten auch was dazu erzählen (nur Sicherheitsmesser nehmen etc., aber das sind 5 min einer breit aufgestellten Schulung/ Unterweisung).
Problem ist: Leute bringen sonst alle möglichen Messer von Zuhause mit, verletzen sich bös, fallen aus, BG meckert irgendwann, wenn man das nicht unterbindet.

Fair to worry about this one, but LNN is a rough way to play it. Irrigation demand doesn't spike in the drought year, it spikes the year after, when farmers finally have the cash and the reason to spend it. In a bad year capex gets defered and the order book goes quiet right when you'd expect it to explode. BG is a crush margin and trade flow story more than a weather story anyway, and South America tends to get rain in an El Niño year, which cuts against the drought thesis you're buying. The forecast has been public since spring so nobody is early on this.

trading crop futures directly during El Niño is a trap for retail due to extreme volatility and roll costs. shifting exposure to major ag-traders (BG, ADM), fertilizer plays (NTR, CF), or ag-broad ETFs gives you direct leverage to soaring soft commodity prices without the headache of managing futures contracts

So we've got climate agencies around the world screaming that this year's El Nino is gonna be brutal. Those of you who don't believe in science might want to skip this discussion.
For the smarties, where is the money making trade for the next 6-12 months? I ran the question past a few AIs and got only some consensus.
At the top was LNN. They sell mechanized irrigation systems which are crucial during farm-level drought. BG is another as a pure agribusiness play.
Curious to hear your thoughts.

Wahrscheinlich ist mal jemand mit Messer auf der Treppe gestürzt, hat sich verletzt und jemanden verklagt.
Man könnte natürlich auch einfach Sicherheitsmesser mit einziehender Klinge nehmen.
Was Schulung angeht: ich würde in einer jährlichen Sicherheitsunterweisung Leuten, die mit Kartonmessern etc. arbeiten auch was dazu erzählen (nur Sicherheitsmesser nehmen etc., aber das sind 5 min einer breit aufgestellten Schulung/ Unterweisung).
Problem ist: Leute bringen sonst alle möglichen Messer von Zuhause mit, verletzen sich bös, fallen aus, BG meckert irgendwann, wenn man das nicht unterbindet.