BDC
Belden Inc.
stock NYSE

Another set of company write-ups from Substack authors, all from within the last week.
Not my work - sourced from Giles Capital's weekly compilation:
[https://gilescapital.substack.com/](https://gilescapital.substack.com/)
# Americas
**Elliot's Musings** on [**Micron Technology**](https://alphaseeker84.substack.com/p/micron-technology-mu-q3-fy2026-results) (🇺🇸 MU US - US$1.3tn) Latest quarter beat estimates as AI memory chip demand accelerated. Management guided next quarter higher on high-bandwidth memory share gains.
**Hidden Market Gems** on [**Reddit**](https://sbeautiful.substack.com/p/rddt-the-mob-that-became-the-moat) (🇺🇸 RDDT US - US$29bn) Revenue up 69% as AI data licensing added a new stream alongside advertising. The CEO has been selling shares into the rally.
**Rijnberk InvestInsights** on [**Veeva Systems**](https://rijnberkinvestinsights.substack.com/p/veeva-systems-a-deep-dive-into-a) (🇺🇸 VEEV US - US$27bn) Near-monopoly in life sciences software, 75% gross margins, $6.5B net cash. At 32x earnings you are paying for a durable franchise, not cheap assets.
**The Value Nerds** on [**Celsius Holdings**](https://thevaluenerds.substack.com/p/celsius-holdings-celh-deep-dive) (🇺🇸 CELH US - US$8bn) Controls 21% of the US energy drink market. The Alani Nu acquisition diluted shareholders by 9.8% and the margin for error at current prices is thin.
**Emerging Value** on [**Inter & Co**](https://emergingvalue.substack.com/p/inter-and-co-the-other-brazilian) (🇧🇷 INTR US - US$2.5bn) Brazil's fastest-growing digital bank, 44 million clients, net income up 38% last quarter at a 15.5% return on equity. Trades at 8.6x earnings.
**Kairos Research** on [**Aimia**](https://kairosresearch.substack.com/p/aimia-allocator-takeover-trading) (🇨🇦 AIM TSX - CAD$252m) Agreed to sell its chemical business for C$265-271M, roughly matching the entire market cap. Remaining assets trade at a discount to book, management buying.
**D Invests** on [**Zoetis**](https://dinvests.substack.com/p/new-buy-zoetis) (🇺🇸 ZTS US - US$51bn) Decade-low multiples after US companion animal business fell 11% last quarter. At 10x operating profit, the diagnostics franchise is not getting credit.
**P14 Capital** on [**Belden**](https://p14capital.substack.com/p/bdc-the-networking-stock-to-rule) (🇺🇸 BDC US - US$4.5bn) Industrial networking at 12.6x operating profit versus a 21x peer average. Automation, broadband, and smart buildings all inflecting simultaneously, with short interest elevated.
# Europe, Middle East & Africa
**The Dutch Investors** on [**Evolution AB**](https://thedutchinvestors.substack.com/p/evolution-ab-has-the-dust-settled) (🇸🇪 EVO SS - SEK 129bn) 65% profit margins, net cash. Trading at 7x operating profit as the market treats Asia regulatory headwinds as permanent damage rather than a passing cycle.
**Price to Tangible Bruce** on [**Grainger**](https://tangiblebruce.substack.com/p/055x-tbv-for-a-15-compounder-with) (🇬🇧 GRI LN - £1.3bn) UK's largest listed residential landlord at 0.55x tangible book on a build-to-rent pivot. Mike Ashley has quietly built a 3% stake.
**Catalyst Investing** on [**Fiverr**](https://catalystinvesting.substack.com/p/fiverr-international-ltd-nysefvrr) (🇮🇱 FVRR US - US$380m) Two times last year's FCF with $180m net cash on a $380m market cap. Active buyers down 40% from peak and the CEO keeps selling into it.
**Dirt Cheap Europe** on [**Churchill China**](https://dirtcheapeurope.substack.com/p/priced-as-a-corpse-built-like-a-survivor) (🇬🇧 CHH LN - £37m) TOP PICK 231-year-old hospitality ceramics maker, net cash, directors buying, share price down 80% from peak. Trading at 3x EV/EBITDA on temporary margin compression, not structural failure.
**Price to Tangible Bruce** on [**Nexteq**](https://tangiblebruce.substack.com/p/a-profitable-net-net-with-a-cash) (🇬🇧 NXQ LN - £30m) TOP PICK Cash covers more than half the share price. Gaming hardware at 4-5x EV/EBIT through a destocking cycle, backed by 20 years of compliance certifications.
**Businesses Not Stocks** on [**Shoe Zone**](https://businessesnotstocks.substack.com/p/shoe-zone) (🇬🇧 SHOE LN - £23m) The Smith family controls 64% and bought 2.76 million more shares at 50p in May, the same month the dividend was scrapped. Contrarian conviction, distressed fundamentals.
# Asia-Pacific
**Memyselfandi007** on [**Tokio Marine**](https://valueandopportunity.substack.com/p/hello-japan-a-quick-look-at-berkshires) (🇯🇵 8766 JP - US$85bn) Japan's largest insurer at 14x earnings with a 3.1% dividend and active buybacks. Earns 60%+ of profits from US specialty coverage. Berkshire recently added to its position.
**Jam Invest** on [**Central China Management**](https://jaminvest.substack.com/p/hk-53-hkex-frustrations) (🇨🇳 9982 HK - HK$400m) Holds HK$2.58B in cash against a HK$400M market cap. Property services subsidiary of a distressed parent group where the cash has not moved to shareholders.

The share price has been dropping for 4since 2008. PSECis a BDC. they loan money out to other companes. By law BDCs are required to pay out 90% of there earnings as a dividend. For a Good BDC the the yield will be about 9%with some bing a little higher and some bing lower. PSEC is 21% At its current price the PSECs in danger of bing dealisted from the market which will make it difficult to buy and sell stock. Or they will do a reverse stock split which will lock in all the losses permanently and the number of shares you own will be reduced. There are other alternatives to these actions but they are harder and may not solve the issue.
I would recommend selling it and reinvesting the money. A Better choice is to invest in PBDC a ETF that invests only in BDCs. And is actively managed so it hold the what management believe ar the best BDCs. its current yield is 11%. it was about 9% last year but there has been sell off in the market of BDCs which as pushed its yield up.
There is another group. of companies that are also required to pay a high yield. MLPs Master limited Partnerships. The company own and operate oil and gas pipelines and refineries. If have a fund EMO which currently has a yield of 8% and it only invests in MLPs.
The dividend for BDCs is taxed as ordinary income. While EMO is taxed at the qualified tax rate which makes EMO mortal efficient. Qualified dividneds are taxed at the long term capital gains rate which is lower than the ordinary inocme tax rate.

Well first of all you need to understand that they are using very different business strategies when it comes to private credit companies. So there are different risks involved with each Company. But for the most part right now, it is just the market over reacting like we have seen for some time now.
But to your question on why they drop so much and the BDC’s dont. It is because those private credit companies like ARES are seen as agressiv growth stocks with a very high evaluation. So just like you see in tech when there is a tiny bit of bad news, or even just not good news, their Price drops like crazy. Its just the name of the game 🤷‍♂️
One of the issues is FED. The private credit sector does not like not being able to see into the future when it comes to knowing what direction interests will go. And FED cutting back on information is therefore not good.
Also we have seen higher interests, which in the short run ofc should be positive, but in the long run it might become a problem because it can create a situation where companies will be forces to use loans to pay of loans, and then we have a very bad spiral for the private credit sector.
Then back to my first part. I like ARES because their business strategy is focused on fees. If you take Blackstone then they are much more focused on the gains from their investments to pay their dividends. This is why their dividends go up and down, and the risk is much higher. If the market goes down, well then their business model is taking a hit and there will be nothing to pay out dividends from.
If you then look at ARES and their strategy. Fees dont Care about the market going up or down, they Will just keep comming - yes a crash will ofc affect ARES too, but only because they will prob not be able to raise credit as fast when people are scared, and therefore their dividends will not be able to grow 20% each year. But their current fees will be the same and the dividends are almost covered by it alone.
The main issue with ARES is that they are kind of ahead of its growth when it comes to their dividends. In the start of the year it Will almost always look like their payout is above 100%, but they assume they will catch up over the year because they got so much dry powder to invest, so they know they will grow 20-25% over the year. I dont like this because like why do they have to do this? Well because at some point they did start this trend, and now it is hard to go back, because it will look like their growth has stopped.
Another reason why I see ARES as the gold standard is because around 50% of their investments come from pension funds, and I think 85% of their total invested Capital is on 7-10 year contracts. So the issues we hear about at the moment of people trying to get their investments out of those private credit companies, does not really affect ARES. Yes they do have a fund which account for around 4% of their total cap where people are pulling out. But it is like a drop in the sea in the total picture. Still they were able to raise 25% more money in Q1 than last year.
It might be a bit strange but pension funds actually rely on the private credit market to minimize their volatility. The private credit market is illiquid, meaning it is not affected by the market going up and down, and at the same time it is paying a pretty nice interest, which again will have a positive impact on the volatility in a rough market for pension funds.
So yeah I would def buy the dip in this case and not go for the BDC. If shit goes Down in the end, any BDC Will def hit rock bottom and their dividend will be cut. The second a BDC starts cutting their dividends it is game over. A Company like ARES on the other hand will just cut Down on growth, which yes will send the Stock Down 40-50% at least, but your income is much more secure, and you can wait it out.
That is just how I see it anyway 🙂
And ofc you should never invest 20-30% into ARES or any BDC in my view. You do that with a fund like SCHD.
I have around 40-45 individual stocks in my dividend growth portfolio and then 3-5 funds on the side. And I only got ARES and MAIN in the private credit area, so my allocation towards this sector is not that high of a risk to me.

Another set of company write-ups from Substack authors, all from within the last week.
Not my work - sourced from Giles Capital's weekly compilation:
[https://gilescapital.substack.com/](https://gilescapital.substack.com/)
# Americas
**Elliot's Musings** on [**Micron Technology**](https://alphaseeker84.substack.com/p/micron-technology-mu-q3-fy2026-results) (🇺🇸 MU US - US$1.3tn) Latest quarter beat estimates as AI memory chip demand accelerated. Management guided next quarter higher on high-bandwidth memory share gains.
**Hidden Market Gems** on [**Reddit**](https://sbeautiful.substack.com/p/rddt-the-mob-that-became-the-moat) (🇺🇸 RDDT US - US$29bn) Revenue up 69% as AI data licensing added a new stream alongside advertising. The CEO has been selling shares into the rally.
**Rijnberk InvestInsights** on [**Veeva Systems**](https://rijnberkinvestinsights.substack.com/p/veeva-systems-a-deep-dive-into-a) (🇺🇸 VEEV US - US$27bn) Near-monopoly in life sciences software, 75% gross margins, $6.5B net cash. At 32x earnings you are paying for a durable franchise, not cheap assets.
**The Value Nerds** on [**Celsius Holdings**](https://thevaluenerds.substack.com/p/celsius-holdings-celh-deep-dive) (🇺🇸 CELH US - US$8bn) Controls 21% of the US energy drink market. The Alani Nu acquisition diluted shareholders by 9.8% and the margin for error at current prices is thin.
**Emerging Value** on [**Inter & Co**](https://emergingvalue.substack.com/p/inter-and-co-the-other-brazilian) (🇧🇷 INTR US - US$2.5bn) Brazil's fastest-growing digital bank, 44 million clients, net income up 38% last quarter at a 15.5% return on equity. Trades at 8.6x earnings.
**Kairos Research** on [**Aimia**](https://kairosresearch.substack.com/p/aimia-allocator-takeover-trading) (🇨🇦 AIM TSX - CAD$252m) Agreed to sell its chemical business for C$265-271M, roughly matching the entire market cap. Remaining assets trade at a discount to book, management buying.
**D Invests** on [**Zoetis**](https://dinvests.substack.com/p/new-buy-zoetis) (🇺🇸 ZTS US - US$51bn) Decade-low multiples after US companion animal business fell 11% last quarter. At 10x operating profit, the diagnostics franchise is not getting credit.
**P14 Capital** on [**Belden**](https://p14capital.substack.com/p/bdc-the-networking-stock-to-rule) (🇺🇸 BDC US - US$4.5bn) Industrial networking at 12.6x operating profit versus a 21x peer average. Automation, broadband, and smart buildings all inflecting simultaneously, with short interest elevated.
# Europe, Middle East & Africa
**The Dutch Investors** on [**Evolution AB**](https://thedutchinvestors.substack.com/p/evolution-ab-has-the-dust-settled) (🇸🇪 EVO SS - SEK 129bn) 65% profit margins, net cash. Trading at 7x operating profit as the market treats Asia regulatory headwinds as permanent damage rather than a passing cycle.
**Price to Tangible Bruce** on [**Grainger**](https://tangiblebruce.substack.com/p/055x-tbv-for-a-15-compounder-with) (🇬🇧 GRI LN - £1.3bn) UK's largest listed residential landlord at 0.55x tangible book on a build-to-rent pivot. Mike Ashley has quietly built a 3% stake.
**Catalyst Investing** on [**Fiverr**](https://catalystinvesting.substack.com/p/fiverr-international-ltd-nysefvrr) (🇮🇱 FVRR US - US$380m) Two times last year's FCF with $180m net cash on a $380m market cap. Active buyers down 40% from peak and the CEO keeps selling into it.
**Dirt Cheap Europe** on [**Churchill China**](https://dirtcheapeurope.substack.com/p/priced-as-a-corpse-built-like-a-survivor) (🇬🇧 CHH LN - £37m) TOP PICK 231-year-old hospitality ceramics maker, net cash, directors buying, share price down 80% from peak. Trading at 3x EV/EBITDA on temporary margin compression, not structural failure.
**Price to Tangible Bruce** on [**Nexteq**](https://tangiblebruce.substack.com/p/a-profitable-net-net-with-a-cash) (🇬🇧 NXQ LN - £30m) TOP PICK Cash covers more than half the share price. Gaming hardware at 4-5x EV/EBIT through a destocking cycle, backed by 20 years of compliance certifications.
**Businesses Not Stocks** on [**Shoe Zone**](https://businessesnotstocks.substack.com/p/shoe-zone) (🇬🇧 SHOE LN - £23m) The Smith family controls 64% and bought 2.76 million more shares at 50p in May, the same month the dividend was scrapped. Contrarian conviction, distressed fundamentals.
# Asia-Pacific
**Memyselfandi007** on [**Tokio Marine**](https://valueandopportunity.substack.com/p/hello-japan-a-quick-look-at-berkshires) (🇯🇵 8766 JP - US$85bn) Japan's largest insurer at 14x earnings with a 3.1% dividend and active buybacks. Earns 60%+ of profits from US specialty coverage. Berkshire recently added to its position.
**Jam Invest** on [**Central China Management**](https://jaminvest.substack.com/p/hk-53-hkex-frustrations) (🇨🇳 9982 HK - HK$400m) Holds HK$2.58B in cash against a HK$400M market cap. Property services subsidiary of a distressed parent group where the cash has not moved to shareholders.

The share price has been dropping for 4since 2008. PSECis a BDC. they loan money out to other companes. By law BDCs are required to pay out 90% of there earnings as a dividend. For a Good BDC the the yield will be about 9%with some bing a little higher and some bing lower. PSEC is 21% At its current price the PSECs in danger of bing dealisted from the market which will make it difficult to buy and sell stock. Or they will do a reverse stock split which will lock in all the losses permanently and the number of shares you own will be reduced. There are other alternatives to these actions but they are harder and may not solve the issue.
I would recommend selling it and reinvesting the money. A Better choice is to invest in PBDC a ETF that invests only in BDCs. And is actively managed so it hold the what management believe ar the best BDCs. its current yield is 11%. it was about 9% last year but there has been sell off in the market of BDCs which as pushed its yield up.
There is another group. of companies that are also required to pay a high yield. MLPs Master limited Partnerships. The company own and operate oil and gas pipelines and refineries. If have a fund EMO which currently has a yield of 8% and it only invests in MLPs.
The dividend for BDCs is taxed as ordinary income. While EMO is taxed at the qualified tax rate which makes EMO mortal efficient. Qualified dividneds are taxed at the long term capital gains rate which is lower than the ordinary inocme tax rate.

Well first of all you need to understand that they are using very different business strategies when it comes to private credit companies. So there are different risks involved with each Company. But for the most part right now, it is just the market over reacting like we have seen for some time now.
But to your question on why they drop so much and the BDC’s dont. It is because those private credit companies like ARES are seen as agressiv growth stocks with a very high evaluation. So just like you see in tech when there is a tiny bit of bad news, or even just not good news, their Price drops like crazy. Its just the name of the game 🤷‍♂️
One of the issues is FED. The private credit sector does not like not being able to see into the future when it comes to knowing what direction interests will go. And FED cutting back on information is therefore not good.
Also we have seen higher interests, which in the short run ofc should be positive, but in the long run it might become a problem because it can create a situation where companies will be forces to use loans to pay of loans, and then we have a very bad spiral for the private credit sector.
Then back to my first part. I like ARES because their business strategy is focused on fees. If you take Blackstone then they are much more focused on the gains from their investments to pay their dividends. This is why their dividends go up and down, and the risk is much higher. If the market goes down, well then their business model is taking a hit and there will be nothing to pay out dividends from.
If you then look at ARES and their strategy. Fees dont Care about the market going up or down, they Will just keep comming - yes a crash will ofc affect ARES too, but only because they will prob not be able to raise credit as fast when people are scared, and therefore their dividends will not be able to grow 20% each year. But their current fees will be the same and the dividends are almost covered by it alone.
The main issue with ARES is that they are kind of ahead of its growth when it comes to their dividends. In the start of the year it Will almost always look like their payout is above 100%, but they assume they will catch up over the year because they got so much dry powder to invest, so they know they will grow 20-25% over the year. I dont like this because like why do they have to do this? Well because at some point they did start this trend, and now it is hard to go back, because it will look like their growth has stopped.
Another reason why I see ARES as the gold standard is because around 50% of their investments come from pension funds, and I think 85% of their total invested Capital is on 7-10 year contracts. So the issues we hear about at the moment of people trying to get their investments out of those private credit companies, does not really affect ARES. Yes they do have a fund which account for around 4% of their total cap where people are pulling out. But it is like a drop in the sea in the total picture. Still they were able to raise 25% more money in Q1 than last year.
It might be a bit strange but pension funds actually rely on the private credit market to minimize their volatility. The private credit market is illiquid, meaning it is not affected by the market going up and down, and at the same time it is paying a pretty nice interest, which again will have a positive impact on the volatility in a rough market for pension funds.
So yeah I would def buy the dip in this case and not go for the BDC. If shit goes Down in the end, any BDC Will def hit rock bottom and their dividend will be cut. The second a BDC starts cutting their dividends it is game over. A Company like ARES on the other hand will just cut Down on growth, which yes will send the Stock Down 40-50% at least, but your income is much more secure, and you can wait it out.
That is just how I see it anyway 🙂
And ofc you should never invest 20-30% into ARES or any BDC in my view. You do that with a fund like SCHD.
I have around 40-45 individual stocks in my dividend growth portfolio and then 3-5 funds on the side. And I only got ARES and MAIN in the private credit area, so my allocation towards this sector is not that high of a risk to me.