TXN
Texas Instruments Incorporated
stock NASDAQ

Whenever earnings pricing comes up, it's always about the names the market gets wrong — I've posted those myself. So this time I went looking for the ones it gets right. Priced correctly on size, no consistent lean in either direction.
The sample: 120 liquid optionable US names, each with at least 15 earnings prints, 2,270 prints total from January 2007 through August 2026. A name counts as efficient if it clears two bars at once — median actual-to-implied ratio between 0.90 and 1.10, and an overpriced rate between 45% and 55%, basically a coin flip on which side the miss lands. Only 17 of the 120 make it.
|Ticker|Prints|% overpriced|Median ratio|Mean implied|Mean actual|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|TXN|19|52.6%|0.904|4.76%|5.32%|
|DDOG|20|50.0%|0.915|9.40%|9.97%|
|OXY|20|50.0%|0.918|3.91%|3.70%|
|AAPL|20|50.0%|0.929|3.25%|2.91%|
|ZS|19|52.6%|0.934|9.06%|10.47%|
|C|19|52.6%|0.951|3.19%|3.39%|
|TGT|19|52.6%|0.965|6.82%|8.91%|
|MRVL|19|52.6%|0.967|8.01%|10.60%|
|WDC|20|50.0%|0.969|5.49%|5.78%|
|NKE|19|52.6%|0.987|6.70%|8.07%|
|MSTR|19|47.4%|1.003|6.10%|6.73%|
|AMD|19|47.4%|1.024|7.05%|7.52%|
|PINS|20|50.0%|1.044|11.68%|12.82%|
|GOOGL|18|50.0%|1.052|5.41%|5.24%|
|CMG|20|45.0%|1.081|6.37%|6.99%|
|DIS|21|47.6%|1.087|5.61%|5.90%|
|ORCL|19|47.4%|1.087|7.01%|9.01%|
MSTR is the one that stopped me. People talk about this stock like it's a leveraged bitcoin warrant with an equity wrapper — and around its own earnings, the options market has sized the move almost perfectly 19 times in a row. Median ratio 1.003. Of everything in this dataset, the ticker closest to exactly 1.000 is the one with the reputation for chaos.
For scale: the extremes I've posted before (HUT priced ±27.2% and moved 9.1%, SHOP priced ±9.1% and moved 14.2%) are real, but only 26 of 120 names are that broken. 17 are efficient. The other 69 are just averagely wrong in a boring way. That's what a mostly efficient market actually looks like.
My guess on MSTR: it trades on bitcoin's realized vol every day, so its volatility is priced into the chain continuously instead of concentrating into an earnings surprise. The print carries almost no incremental information. That's the part I'm least sure about, actually if you've actually traded the MSTR earnings straddle, tell me if that's right?

U sure bro?
|**Ticker**|**Report Date**|**Rev ($B)**|**Rev Growth (YoY)**|**Beat/Miss**|**Guidance**|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|**MSFT**|Jul 29 (FY26 Q4)|$90.0|**+18%**| Beat ($90.0 vs $87.7 exp)|FQ1 rev $89.85–$90.95B (+16% mid); Azure/cloud strength|
|**AAPL**|Jul 30 (FY26 Q3)|$109.4|**+16%**| Beat (vs \~$108.9 exp)|Sept-qtr growth 9–11% (**missed** \~12% exp); supply constraints|
|**GOOGL**|Jul 22 (CY Q2)|$119.8|**+24%**| Beat|Cloud +82% to $24.8B; Cloud backlog $514B; op margin 34%|
|**AMZN**|Jul 30 (CY Q2)|$200.6|**+20%**| Beat (vs \~$196.5 exp)|Q3 net sales $197–$202B (+9–12%); AWS +37% to $42.2B|
|**META**|Jul 29 (CY Q2)|$60.8|**+28%**| Mixed (rev beat $60.8 vs $60.2; **EPS missed**)|Q3 rev $61–$64B (mid $62.5B, **below** \~$63.1B exp) → stock plunged|
|**NVDA**|Aug 26 (FY27 Q2)|$96.2|**+106%**| Beat (vs \~$92.2B exp)|DC rev $89B (+117% YoY, beat $86.3B exp); Q3 guide \~$108B (+70% YoY)|
|**AMD**|Aug 4 (CY Q2)|$11.54|**+50%**| Beat (vs $11.28B exp)|DC rev $6.7B (+107% YoY); raised growth outlook|
|**INTC**|Jul 23 (CY Q2)|$16.13|**+25%**| Beat (vs \~$14.45B exp)|Q3 rev $15.8–$16.8B, adj EPS $0.38; DC +59%|
|**AVGO**|Sep 2 (FY26 Q3)|— (reports after close)|—|—|Guided Q3 rev \~$29.4B (+84% YoY); AI semi rev \~$16B (+200% YoY)|
|**QCOM**|Jul 29 (FY Q3)|$9.9|**−4%**| Beat (rev at high end; EPS $2.21)|Q4 rev $9.7–$10.5B, adj EPS $2.05–$2.25|
|**MU**|Q3 Jun 24 / Q4 Sep 30|Q3 $41.46|**+346%**| Crushed (vs $35.8B exp)|Q4 rev \~$50B (±$1B), GM \~86%; HBM4 ramp|
|**SNDK**|Aug 5 (FY26 Q4)|$8.97|**+372%**| Beat (vs \~$8.3–8.42B exp)|FY26 rev $20.25B (+175%); DC rev +645% YoY; AI memory buildout|
|**TSM**|Jul 16 (CY Q2)|$40.2|**+36%**| Beat (high end)|Q3 rev $44.6B+; raised FY26 growth to **>40%**; GM 67.7%|
|**MRVL**|Aug 27 (FY27 Q2)|$2.74|**+37%**| Beat|Q3 rev \~$3.15B; raised FY27 to \~$12B (+45% YoY)|
|**ARM**|\~Jul 29 (FY27 Q1)|$1.29|**+22%**| Beat (record)|Royalty +22%, licensing +23%; record quarter|
|**SMCI**|\~Aug 5 (FY26 Q4)|$11.12|**+93%**| Beat|FY26 rev $39.1B (+78%); record AI server demand|
|**TXN**|Jul 21 (CY Q2)|$5.46|**+23%**| Beat (vs $5.24B exp)|Industrial/DC/auto-led growth; EPS $2.14 (+52%)|
|**ASML**|Jul 15 (CY Q2)|€9.3|**\~+50%+** (net sales)| Beat|Raised FY26 to €43–45B, GM 54–56% (2nd raise)|
|**AMAT**|Aug 13 (FY26 Q3)|$9.12|**+25%**| Beat (adj EPS $3.50 vs $3.40)|Packaging rev >70% growth CY26 (raised from >50%)|
|**LRCX**|Jul 29 (FY26 Q4)|$6.72|**+30%**| Beat (vs $6.66B exp)|Sept-qtr rev \~$8.1B (±$400M); FY26 record $23.2B|
|**KLAC**|Jul 30 (FY26 Q4)|$3.66|**+15%**| Beat (record qtr)|Q1 rev \~$4.0B; raised CY26 WFE outlook|
|**ORCL**|Q4 Jun (outside) / Q1 \~Sep 8–9|Q4 $19.2|**+21%**| Beat (Q4)|Q1 rev growth 27–29%; OCI +93%; raised FY27|
|**PLTR**|Aug 3 (CY Q2)|$1.94|**+93%**| Beat (+7.6%)|Raised FY26 to $8.15–$8.16B (+82% YoY); US comm +149%|
|**SNOW**|Sep 2 (FY27 Q2)|— (reports today)|—|—|Prior Q2 guide: product rev $1.415–1.420B (+30%)|
|**CRM**|Aug 26 (FY27 Q2)|$11.35|**+11%**| Beat (above high end)|Raised FY27 to $46.1–$46.4B (+11–12%)|
|**NOW**|Jul 22 (CY Q2)|\~$3.9 (sub)|**+23%** (sub, cc)| Beat (all lines)|Raised FY26 sub rev to $15.76–$15.78B (+21% cc)|
|**ADBE**|Jun 11 (FY26 Q2, outside)|$6.62|**+13%**| Beat (+2.6%)|Raised FY26 to $26.5–$26.6B; stock sank to 7-yr low|
|**PANW**|Sep 1 (FY26 Q4)|$3.41|**+34%**| Beat (vs \~$3.35B exp)|FY26 rev $11.5B (+24%); NGS ARR +34% to $21.2B|
|**CRWD**|Aug 26 (FY27 Q2)|$1.47|**+26%**| Beat|ARR $5.84B (+25%); record net-new ARR $333M; raised FY27|
|**NET**|Aug 6 (CY Q2)|$0.696|**+36%**| Beat|Raised FY26 to $2.864–$2.870B (+32%)|
|**DDOG**|Aug 6 (CY Q2)|$1.12|**+36%**| Beat (vs $1.08B exp)|Raised FY26 to $4.45–$4.47B (+30%); stock fell \~17%|
|**UBER**|Aug 5 (CY Q2)|$14.2|**+12%**| Mixed (GB +22% beat; rev miss)|Q3 GB $58.25–$60.25B (+18–22% cc); stock fell \~5%|
|**DELL**|Sep 1 (FY27 Q2)|$31.8|**+89%**| Beat|AI-optimized server rev $16.4B (+100%); FY27 rev \~$167B|
|**HPQ**|Aug 27 (FY26 Q3)|$15.7|**+12.5%**| Beat (record)|Lifted FY26 outlook; PC +18%|
|**HPE**|Sep 2 (FY26 Q3)|— (reports today)|—|—|Prior Q3 guide $11.5–$12.1B; Q2 was +40%|
|**ANET**|Aug 4 (CY Q2)|$3.04|**+37.7%**| Beat (vs $2.8B guide)|Raised FY26 to \~$12.6B (+40%); Q3 \~$3.03B|
|**CSCO**|Aug 12 (FY26 Q4)|$17.3|**+18%**| Beat (vs $16.8B exp)|FY26 rev $63.3B (+12%); product +24%; stock slid 8%|

short TXN $260/245 PDS exp 9/11

It's forward p/e is at a 5 year low, and is several points below the S&P's valuation. On the most used metric for valuation, NVidia is cheaper than it was when ChatGPT came out in 2023. It's also at or near a 5 year low on most every other valuation metric.
That is to say it is undervalued relative the S&P.
It's valuation is lower than AVGO, ANET, ETN, KLAC, LRCX, ASML, LLY, MRVL, DELL, NFLX, CRWD, AMD (you know, it's wannabe competitor); GEV; ISRG; VRT; IBKR; MA; V; CEG; TXN...
It is cheap. It's cheap on every metric.

Hi,
New to this community, so, hopefully will be able to provide some good insights to potential trades that follows the below strategy.
The MACD RSI Strategy is simple, ***IF*** you follow the rules!
On the ***DAY*** chart.
Your selected stock/forex needs to be either overbought (**>70**) or oversold (**<30**) on the RSI scale within the last couple of days.
The earnings date needs to be at least 14 days out.
Once the above is good, wait for the MACD to cross in the same direction as the RSI, either both bullish or both bearish.
If you go for a trade, set your stop loss (SL) either above the most recent highest high in the case of a short, or below the most recent lowest low in the case of a long.
Let the trade sit until the RSI crosses the 50 mark. When it does close the trade.
This can take a day or several weeks depending on the stock, obviously forex moves faster! 😄
This is not financial advice, and you accept the risk should you enter a trade.
**New potentials will be posted here on a daily basis**, if they appear.
The stocks/tickers currently being monitor are:
AAA, AAL, AAPL, ABBV, ABT, ACN, ADBE, ADI, AEM, AMAT, AMD, AMGN, AMZN, ANET, APH, APP, ARKK, ARM, ASML, AUDUSD=X, AVGO, AXP, AZN, B, BA, BABA, BAC, BBVA, BHP, BKNG, BLK, BMO, BP, BSX, BTI, BUD, BZ=F, C, CAT, CB, CCZ, CEG, CMCSA, CME, COF, COIN, COP, COST, CRM, CRWD, CSCO, CVX, DE, DHR, DIA, DIS, DRIP, DUK, ELF, ENB, ETN, EURUSD=X, FCX, GBPUSD=X, GDX, GE, GEV, GILD, GLW, GOOG, GOOGL, GS, GSK, HCA, HD, HDB, HON, HSBC, HUM, HUT, HWM, IBM, IBN, INTC, INTU, ISRG, IWM, JNJ, JPM, KHC, KLAC, KO, LIN, LLY, LMT, LOW, LRCX, LUV, LVS, MA, MCD, MCK, MDT, META, MFG, MO, MRK, MS, MSFT, MU, MUFG, NEE, NEM, NFLX, NOC, NOW, NUGT, NVDA, NVO, NVS, ORCL, PANW, PBR, PDD, PEP, PFE, PG, PGR, PH, PLD, PLTR, PM, PYPL, QCOM, QQQ, RIO, RIOT, ROKU, RTX, RY, SAN, SAP, SBUX, SCCO, SCHW, SHEL, SHOP, SLB, SLV, SMCI, SMFG, SMH, SNY, SO, SONY, SOXL, SPGI, SPOT, SPY, SQQQ, SYK, T, TBB, TD, TGT, TJX, TM, TMO, TMUS, TNA, TQQQ, TSLA, TSM, TTE, TXN, TZA, UBER, UBS, UL, UNH, UNP, USDCAD=X, USDCHF=X, USDJPY=X, V, VRTX, VZ, WELL, WFC, WMT, XHB, XLC, XLE, XLF, XLI, XLK, XLP, XLRE, XLU, XLV, XLY, XOM, \^FTSE, \^NDX
In the image there are three potential shorts and a long, CME, COP, NEE & T.
Have a great weekend.