TXN
Texas Instruments Incorporated
stock NASDAQ

\> decent ones focusing exclusively or predominantly on the semiconductor equipment manufacturers
Not only no decent ones, none at all.
Given what you said about NVDA and TSM, your best bet is CHPS.
AMAT, LRCX, ASML, KLAC and TER make up about 20% of it. Also about 5% each of MU, SK Hynix, Tokyo Electron and eight other non-US companies that are not in SMH. Also small bits of ALB and CRDO. NVDA, TSM and AVGO are there too but in only average percentages. Two downsides, not great volume and about 12% TXN/QCOM/INTC.

# Closing Prices Today
**Memory**
Micron (MU): -6.8%
Sandisk (SNDK): -6.8%
**GPUs and CPUs**
Nvidia (NVDA): -3%
AMD: -3.5%
Intel (INTC): -5.5%
**Fabs**
Texas Instruments (TXN): -2.4%
TSMC (TSM): -4.2%
\--
**ASML**: -5.5%

Oh man, Thanks for waking me up on this as I do not follow them on my watchlist. I do see they are hitting the 200DMA today or very close which is at 189.93. Most recently I ran across some article that mentioned they had acquired someone. I didn't get any details on it but am sure it is a Google away. I seem to get sidetracked way too much as I intended to dive into what it was and why they might do that as best I could.
Through the years, I have not seen or recall TNX doing much of that. Within this past year they have opened up a magnificent new facility way north of Dallas near the Oklahoma border for a new modernized plant. They should have capacity and perhaps be looking to make some moves to more fully exploit filling that. I don't know, What i will say is that at these price levels it should become a stock to watch depending on how much debt they have acquired and free cash flow. I also fully expect they would be a recipient of some of the government funds to support the US chip business. TXN cut their teeth building top secret stuff and for years were exclusively a government contractor. They still have some of that business but it is not often disclosed how much. I do know that when i worked for them, I did not have Top Secret clearance and they were large parts of the building I was not allowed to set foot in nor really interact much with those employees.

At these levels we need to monitor them for a run back higher.

u/Coyote_Tex , my usual question: WTH is going on with TXN? Look at that daily chart!

I get your point. It’s not purely theoretical. There is a reason Buffett went with See‘s candies instead of bells labs or TXN back then. What I mean is that some business models are inherently low risk and high returns. They are kind of very simple business models overlooked by the market at that time. Such plays are large bets, and few. Along the way there will be a lot of small bets of different types of plays. 
Plain vanilla businesses are easy to understand and easy to overlook, because they are boring. 
WB and CM talks about economic goodwill in their own way. I back tested on apple, you can find that same logic. 
Back to risk specifically, how would you quantify? It is all about assumptions, and identifying risks correctly. I don’t think that I can quantify everything accurately, but I could at least rule out the ones with a high chance of a catastrophic risk. 
E.g. I can avoid businesses which have a chance of getting nationalised. If I see a revenue stream, with a high chance of getting affected, remove it from the statements and see how the numbers appear. If I am doubtful of acquisitions, how the past acquisitions of the same management improved the returns.
I am not confident in predicting accurately the cash flows by adjusting for the risks with a formula. But I can test what will happen under different scenarios - at extremes. If I think that alcohol consumption is going down, then the pricing power and operational efficiency matters. Now I assume a consistent decline in volume and see what happens. 
It is painstakingly lot of work, that’s why I screen out and do such extensive work for a few business I can understand.