SEDG
SolarEdge Technologies, Inc.
stock NASDAQ

Ратес already got talked to death here. What's missing is what the earnings actually are
FSLR 2026 guide assumes $2.10-2.19b of section 45X credits. q2 gm was 57.3% vs 45.6% and they say the jump was primarily an $88.6m net IEEPA tariff refund plus more modules qualifying for 45X. factory subsidy and a tariff refund, not your power bill [guide](https://alphacreek.ai/sec/reader?doc_id=FSLR_8-K_000127449426000169&node_id=sp-1.2.6.3) [Q2](https://alphacreek.ai/sec/reader?doc_id=FSLR_10-Q_000127449426000170&node_id=sp-1.2.10.3)
H.R.1 already killed the homeowner 25D credit at the end of 2025 and shortened the lease/PPA credit from 2034 to in-service by the end of 2027 (start construction before july 4 2026 and you get until 2030). SEDG is that trade. q2 sales +19.6% to $346m, inverter units 86.2k to 62.6k, non-US went from 36% to 55% of sales, and the extra dollars were batteries (+$63m) [25D](https://alphacreek.ai/sec/reader?doc_id=SEDG_10-Q_000117891326003854&node_id=sp-1.2.1.7.1) [mix](https://alphacreek.ai/sec/reader?doc_id=SEDG_10-Q_000117891326003854&node_id=sp-1.2.1.12.1)
Buying "credits come back" is SEDG and those inverter volumes say youre early. Buying tariffs and US modules is fslr, and youre paying for the 45X check

FSLR's been getting hammered on tariff fears and the whole "higher for longer" rate thing killing project financing. the utility scale side is supposed to be safe but when money gets expensive those big solar farms start looking a lot less attractive

i'd be wary of SEDG though, residential solar is a bloodbath right now especially with rates where they are. people aren't exactly lining up to finance rooftop panels

Ратес already got talked to death here. What's missing is what the earnings actually are
FSLR 2026 guide assumes $2.10-2.19b of section 45X credits. q2 gm was 57.3% vs 45.6% and they say the jump was primarily an $88.6m net IEEPA tariff refund plus more modules qualifying for 45X. factory subsidy and a tariff refund, not your power bill [guide](https://alphacreek.ai/sec/reader?doc_id=FSLR_8-K_000127449426000169&node_id=sp-1.2.6.3) [Q2](https://alphacreek.ai/sec/reader?doc_id=FSLR_10-Q_000127449426000170&node_id=sp-1.2.10.3)
H.R.1 already killed the homeowner 25D credit at the end of 2025 and shortened the lease/PPA credit from 2034 to in-service by the end of 2027 (start construction before july 4 2026 and you get until 2030). SEDG is that trade. q2 sales +19.6% to $346m, inverter units 86.2k to 62.6k, non-US went from 36% to 55% of sales, and the extra dollars were batteries (+$63m) [25D](https://alphacreek.ai/sec/reader?doc_id=SEDG_10-Q_000117891326003854&node_id=sp-1.2.1.7.1) [mix](https://alphacreek.ai/sec/reader?doc_id=SEDG_10-Q_000117891326003854&node_id=sp-1.2.1.12.1)
Buying "credits come back" is SEDG and those inverter volumes say youre early. Buying tariffs and US modules is fslr, and youre paying for the 45X check

FSLR's been getting hammered on tariff fears and the whole "higher for longer" rate thing killing project financing. the utility scale side is supposed to be safe but when money gets expensive those big solar farms start looking a lot less attractive

i'd be wary of SEDG though, residential solar is a bloodbath right now especially with rates where they are. people aren't exactly lining up to finance rooftop panels

Your thesis is solid on the demand side but rates are the swing factor that can override everything else. FSLR has an edge over SEDG here because domestic manufacturing gets tariff protection and IRA production credits, while SEDG's residential exposure is more rate-sensitive since rooftop solar financing gets crushed when borrowing costs stay high. One thing to watch: a lot of the policy upside you're pricing in is already baked into current law, so even a Democratic sweep is more about preventing downside than adding new upside. What multiple are you assuming for FSLR at these rate levels?

I think this sector will prove to be a good hedge/ballast over the next few years. In the near term, there are tailwinds due to the Iran conflict. And midterm, we have the political tailwinds that could materialize in the next 1-3 years. And longer term, I think there is serious risk that we hit a decade or so of stagflation as we try and deal with this debt. And I think renewables have a utility/commodity like profile that should do well in stagflation environment, but they also have a growth tailwind that should provide some extra buffer compared to the more traditional investment choices in this domain.
I am spread out across the sector, and I move in an out as prices adjust. But I have some EVGO and CHPT as short term plays on high gas prices. SEDG, ENPH, and RUN for the midterm political play. TE is a reshoring play. And BEPC is my utility like ballast stock. A number of these stocks are also mid-turnaround so there is some upside potential if the company executes well (and corresponding downside potential if they don't).

I have been riding the SEDG roller coaster since the ban on Chinese inverters, and I do call it a roller coaster up 8-10% over my buy in point one day down 3% the next. FSLR is a tougher one, I thought about buying into it, but opted not to due to its maxed out manufacturing capacity, it really does not matter that much how much demand there is for your products if you are booking order fulfillment out 2-3 years in advance.
My take on SEDG is that it is owned 95+% by institutional investors so the money moves very fast with the market, price of oil, etc and not with the mid to longer term viability of the company. Then there is the buy or sell recommendations for this company being all over the map, and changing drastically day to day with little change in underlying information.

Hello,
How would you value FSLR or SEDG as investments if US electricity prices keep rising, tariffs restrict Chinese solar panel/inverter competition, and future policy potentially restores stronger solar tax credits — while interest rates remain higher for longer? Which is a big headwind.
FSLR looks like the safer utility-scale/US manufacturing play, while SEDG seems like the higher-upside residential/storage turnaround.
Does this thesis sound compelling, and what am I missing?
I think its fairly certain that Democrats take the house and possibly also the Senate. So future energy policy could see a reinstatement of some credits (they said so) and the stop further negative policy
Cheers.