NVDA
Nvidia Corp
stock NASDAQ

This is what is known as a red herring. Your reply has nothing to do with the thesis or argument, which is critical thinking 101 they teach in Uni 101 Philosophy then much later in grad studies. If you had nothing else to say all you did is reveal deep seated issues and a need to overpower with the instrument of ignorance: a fallacy. I downgraded your comment as amateurish. Don’t engage experts or they will bring you to our level and smash down your arguments back to 3d grade where they belong… QED. That is Latin.
Did I mention that knowing when to sell is part of 3d grade investing? lol
Enjoy NVDA. I stick to the rest of thoroughbred performers…

I think that some of the software stocks and bitcoin are oversold, but I don’t know where that is exactly. The reason I believe that is because of the exacerbation of the option markets now. We are a couple weeks into the new options flow where the magnificent seven stocks have multiple weekly expirations now versus just single week. Data from spotgamma show that in limited samples NVDA went from being a leader of option flow to playing second fiddle on some of these Mondays and Wednesdays recently. So that is already increasing the flows and mechanical trading dynamics. So because of the ever increasing use of options from a dealer and market, making perspective, specifically on shorter time periods like on a quarterly basis due to transactional costs. I think that just increases the volatility of single stocks which means that maybe some of them will rebound much faster if the economy starts to tank or have a large correction because they already were dumped off. The trading patterns time periods and sequencing is way too mechanical with all of the software stocks that have sold off . That is my theory and it’s something I’m going to be tracking moving forward this year.
For example NVDA, the single stock that trades in its own stratosphere in terms of weekly trading volume. The other week NVDA went up like +11% from Thursday close into Monday. What could be the reason? Well if you look under the surface at options flow, you would’ve seen that there was heavy institutional volume placed on a call spread for May for NVDA. Information like this comes from places like spotgamma. So I think stuff like this will only continue to happen.
Every single day we are near ATHs of total option volume. Look at what happened to Silver and the trading volume, options volume and volatility in the last month. That is what will happen to the indices if there is a volatility catalyst

Not zero but one was $NVDA stock split bug and the other was the April 2025 dip

I dont like doing that tbh. Instead of calculating a fair stock price what I do is stick to the financials and kind of simulate the worst case scenario that would make it a bad buy. I will run the peg with a lower growth forecast, and know if im paying too much. Ive been buying NVDA fairly constantly cuz even with my absolute lowest growth estimates its PEG is still around 1. I bought google purely off financials and because I use the company, I know they have good ai, etc.

NVDA. Only

NVDA 3 years ago

The “AI CapEx is out of control” argument is starting to run out of steam and we will likely see the same pundits on CNBC saying the hyperscalers are underspending on AI infrastructure. AI is not a fad or a small piece of the technology stack. It is the future of all business, all personal interaction with our environment, medicine, health, education, home life, etc. It’s like debating whether railroads should build tracks just as the steam engine and refrigerated boxcars were invented. Having said that, some are more poised than others to run on in 2026 and 2027. So I tend to still use traditional valuation metrics - such as EPS growth, PE ratio, Forward PE ration, PEG ratio, moat, etc. So for now, I am holding pat on my Mag 7 holdings - as they make up over half of my portfolio. If I were to add now, I would probably add more NVDA, Meta, AMZN and MSFT.

I also hit $1.199m w/ NVDA, though it took 1/2 the time it took you, and I started with about 4x as much cap.

Hell of a good job sir. Nancy buying [NVDA](http://aimytrade.io/ticker/NVDA) has made many people very happy.

2 years trading options.
Best decision I've ever made in my life.
In December 2023, Nancy Pelosi disclosed buying $1.5mil+ worth of $NVDA call options. Each option was $38k each.
I had no idea what options were back then but the $NVDA thesis made sense and I figured worse case I will only lose like $5k max.
So I copied her trade. I paid like $300 more than her since there was disclosure delay and she bought in late November but the stock did not stop going up since.
In 3 months I tripled my money and I was hooked. I later learnt that the reason she uses options is to leverage her picks (she chooses deep in the money which is not insane risk but also not insane reward).
She then bought more stocks and I copied every single one of her trades and added more cash (around $400k total).
Since I started I'm up almost $750k but it's not over. She disclosed new trades last month, most of them are trimming her positions in tech but one trade that really stood out in my opinion is $1mil purchase in $AB.
It was the only position she added more money to.
I posted all my copied trades on X where I'm somewhat viral but I'm gonna start posting here too.
Anyway, hope this maybe inspired you to track politicians trades. There is a lot of value there in my opinion. Nancy Pelosi is not the only one.
https://preview.redd.it/d72tcrce2xjg1.png?width=1179&format=png&auto=webp&s=72fff6e19d99cd1baea061844173bbe862d83862

TSM, NVDA, AAPL, GOOGL

I'm not upset I'm entertained. This thread is about spaceX...
You mentioned some story that was completely stupid where a computer scientist knew this in 2009. Jensen had literally zero clue this would bring NVDA to the stratosphere. He's invented a story in hindsight to make them seem like geniuses but he didn't know and the market didn't know and the industry definitely didn't. This was very very clear if you followed the industry and the market. NVDA was however always a great company.
Either way I don't get your point if you didn't mean space companies might be blowing up in 10-15 years. Either way it's a stupid point because it's like trying to win the lottery. That's not a good way to invest and it's not a good way to trade either.

So fucking cathartic seeing this entire "AI" sideshow fading. So fucking cathartic to know how many NVDA calls are out there getting fucked exponentially by theta.
I am so fucking sick of seeing how many idiots are on this planet, especially after living through covid.

He's put out a very pro TPU vs Blackwell article which started the NVDA being flat vs the rest of semis thing towards the end of the year. Not sure he's in Jensen's pocket

I am aware that picking a semi ETF is high risk. You are really concentrated in a small sector. However, semis are everywhere and are not going away anytime soon. I have a small position (10%) in SMH and SOXQ. I know that there is a high overlap. I did this because my position in SMH is much older and I did not want to increase my DCA. That being said, while most will say to use the more popular SMH, I actually prefer SOXQ for a few reasons:
1. Lower ER (0.19 vs 0.35) which can saves $1,000's in large accounts.
2. Not as NVDA or TSM heavy. NVDA has stalled in recent months.
3. Slightly more diversified than SMH. Probably not that big of a deal, but it does provide a tad bit more coverage.
4. Not to chase recent performance, but SOXQ has beaten SMH in the past 6 months. This will bounce back and forth over time.
If you use semis in your portfolio, which one did you choose and why?

May as well cash in on the AI buildout while dat shit lasts, I figure at least for a few more months. So, NVDA (after they crush earnings and dip 9%), MU. Rare earths and metals as a hedge.

My thoughts as well, not looking forward to these earnings. The streets expectations are extremely high, and we know if NVDA even underperforms in a single metric it will be going downhill. Hell, even if they double beat again, it'll probably still go downhill.

I mean, you have till mid March, but that Goog call is so far OTM. I personally wouldn't even hold that overnight, much less much later, but there is at least a chance. However, I think the tech sector is going to continue to look cautious till NVDA earnings as that pretty much defines the value of the semiconductor industry and the AI sphere. If they crush it, NVDA will sell-off as always, but everything else will be more justified in their current valuations. If they miss...expect a red tech sector till at least the next earnings cycle.

hedge funds are private institutions placing bets. they are a drop in the bucket compared to state capital. what kind of analogy is this? you think some 100b AUM hedgie is manipulating 4t mkt cap NVDA?

I said the same thing about NVDA in 2018 when it was trading $220 a share. One of the biggest mistake I made was selling it instead of holding.