NVDA
Nvidia Corp
stock NASDAQ

Yea, the thing with AI is… it doesn’t care about money… not saying AI won’t be the most consequential thing ever… I actually fully believe in AI’s emergence but that’s whole different story and irrelevant to financial which is what the human system can handle.
I’m uncertain if or when the capex will end since this is where the AI infra market is pushing rn, but typically assets aren’t load bearing in the long run and when return doesn’t justify the spending, it will revert to the mean. The system becomes fragile that’s all. Next week, we see NVDA TO 300!!!

Got calls for non stop pumping which will occur over the weekend, no way we get the new Fed chair off to a bad start - so get ready for "news" like China allows NVDA chips, 55th ceasefire announcement, inflation coming down, rate cuts incoming etc.

Much lower PE than NVDA and less risk in a sense, because it doesn't matter which chip designer wins. TSM manufactures most of them.

no one has said NVDA yet...
edit: saw the $600 upside comment, definitely NOT NVDA

If war breaks out in Taiwan, **Nvidia would experience an immediate, catastrophic disruption to its chip supply chain**, as it relies almost entirely on [Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC)](https://www.businessinsider.com/nvidia-taiwan-tsmc-jensen-huang-china-disruption-2024-9) to manufacture and assemble its ultra-advanced AI GPUs. \[[1](https://www.youtube.com/shorts/0yNxZ0GJ13U), [2](https://www.wionews.com/photos/what-would-happen-to-nvidia-if-china-attacked-taiwan-today-a-factual-breakdown-of-the-worst-case-scenario-1764335291497)\]
Immediate Production Freeze
* **Fabless Vulnerability:** Nvidia is a fabless company. It designs semiconductors but owns no factories, outsourcing 99% of its advanced logic wafer production to TSMC.
* **Packaging Bottleneck:** Nvidia relies heavily on Taiwan-based Advanced Packaging (CoWoS) to assemble components like the Blackwell and Hopper series. A cross-strait conflict would instantly freeze these operations.
* **Remote Deactivation:** If manufacturing plants are physically captured, partners like [ASML](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0JvMURqpj1E) and TSMC maintain remote kill-switches to brick advanced lithography machines. This guarantees that production cannot easily resume under an occupying force. \[[1](https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2025/11/24/nvidia-stocks-5-trillion-taiwan-risk/), [3](https://www.youtube.com/shorts/0yNxZ0GJ13U), [5](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0JvMURqpj1E), [6](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ozFVmyqT8vI&t=18), [7](https://researchcentre.trtworld.com/topics/security-defence/taiwans-chip-dilemma-navigating-the-threat-of-invasion-and-the-strain-of-diversification/)\]
Financial and Market Shock
* **Revenue Devastation:** Nvidia is highly vulnerable to extended shutdowns. Analysts project that a six-month disruption could slash projected revenues by 50%, wiping out up to $75 billion in earnings.
* **Stock Price Collapse:** Financial markets treat Taiwan as the global semiconductor backbone. A conflict would likely trigger an immediate, historic sell-off, with market experts estimating an abrupt plunge of 50% or more in [Nvidia stock](https://www.reddit.com/r/NvidiaStock/comments/1ptccku/what_happens_to_semiconductors_like_tsmcnvidia/).
* **Global Tech Contagion:** The hardware shortage would create a "Lehman Brothers-type" event for Silicon Valley. Major cloud infrastructure providers (Microsoft, OpenAI, Amazon, and Google) would see their AI buildouts entirely frozen. \[, [4](https://www.reddit.com/r/NvidiaStock/comments/1ptccku/what_happens_to_semiconductors_like_tsmcnvidia/), [5](https://www.youtube.com/shorts/0yNxZ0GJ13U), [6](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L89vznHYGdQ)\]
Mid-Term Recovery Hurdles
* **Inability to Quickly Pivot:** Although Nvidia maintains secondary partnerships with foundries like Samsung, moving leading-edge chip nodes and packaging infrastructure at scale requires highly complex calibration.
* **Multi-Year Delays:** Reallocating production lines to alternative sites, such as TSMC's expanding facilities in Arizona, would take years to execute fully. This transition would be severely bottlenecked by Western labor differences and steep 25%+ manufacturing cost premiums. \[[1](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/24/technology/taiwan-china-chips-silicon-valley-tsmc.html), [3](https://www.wionews.com/photos/what-would-happen-to-nvidia-if-china-attacked-taiwan-today-a-factual-breakdown-of-the-worst-case-scenario-1764335291497), [5](https://www.reddit.com/r/NVDA_Stock/comments/13jada7/whatll_happen_to_nvidias_ability_to_produce/)\]

True but as of ~6mos ago - every $40 = 1T in market cap.
Taken into account for buybacks etc... that formula could change slightly.
However that helps to put in perspective how hard it is to move a stock that's 5.5T market cap. Usually movement is +1 or +2vper day for a company this large - or like NVDA has been is flatlined for the last 6 mos.
Smaller caps can jump and make larger daily strides.

The money to be made on NVDA earnings is usually the run up before…then comes the dump. It ran up a bit this week already. I wouldn’t trust holding, but that’s just me

I bought NVDA $300

It landed exactly break even to my ITM put thanks to IV, and I was able to close for break even, but yeah I agree. If NVDA beats earnings next week and goes up then AMAT is sure to follow and maybe even will hit $500 tbh. I think it was just overall market weakness dragging down AMAT's beat.

GOOGL and NVDA still with the regard strength after hours

STO 2x TLT 83p 05/18 @ 0.12 for some dinner take-out
STO NVDA 215p 05/18 @ 0.37

NVDA will open 210 on Monday

NVDA with the buzzer beater dump. Real cool.

Hopefully with NVDA earnings Wednesday too. I really hope we don’t go even more free falling.

Holy fuck how is SPY still drilling so hard even though NVDA hit the wall

Warren Buffet is the smartest in history for holding all his cash. I wish I was smart like him instead of buying dips on NVDA, SPY, QCOM, DELL.

The fact that SNDK is up and MU is bleeding is entertaining. Markets are funny.
Bet we see a return to highs next week barring any big NVDA surprises.

Holy FUCK SPY 740 might be the strongest resistance I've seen in the last 2 decades and we just hit it a couple days ago
Going to set us up nicely for an absolutely massive slingshot to 750 next week then 775 after NVDA earnings

NVDA will save this market, trust the plan.

Rolling my NVDA CSPs up and out to 6/18 $215 for 7.25. Looking to replace shares I lost recently. Thinking we are primed for a small pullback again to the $215 level. If not I’ll just use a Buy/Write