EXPE
Expedia Group, Inc. Common Stock
stock NASDAQ

>Ideally, we're talking about high-conviction plays with market caps under \~$150B that have clear potential to become future $1T megacaps.
If you had such high conviction that a $300-400b company today is going to $1t some time in the future, I'd invest in those companies today, rather than hope there is some big market crash to jump in. Of course it doesn't hurt to always have some dry power on the side at all times. If you are so confident, why not take the big gain, rather than hope for a bigger what if gain? What if it doesn't happen?
My holdings in MSFT AAPL MA VMW (now AVGO) back in 2008-09 went down over 50% from tops and today they are all up over 10x from my buy in.
My holdings in MDB NFLX SHOP NVDA all went down over 50% from tops in 2022-23 and they are now all up over 10x from my buy in.
Point is, I didn't get big gains because I got them during a big crash, I got big gains because I bought consistently growing companies and held them through bad macro events because micro was good. Look how far apart those dates are - big crashes don't come that often. Even if you got lucky and took advantage of a crash, what are you going to do, just wait for the next one? By that time the CAGR of the SP500 will have probably met or beat your return - this path requiring zero effort and no luck/timing.
During March 2020, I took advantage of buying EXPE MAR and TTD with dry powder. Okay TTD was looking great for awhile, now just barely positive. So sure, if you can take advantage of a big downturn that's great. But they are so rare you can't just wait for them or opportunity cost of time is going to nullify any short term big gain.

>Ideally, we're talking about high-conviction plays with market caps under \~$150B that have clear potential to become future $1T megacaps.
If you had such high conviction that a $300-400b company today is going to $1t some time in the future, I'd invest in those companies today, rather than hope there is some big market crash to jump in. Of course it doesn't hurt to always have some dry power on the side at all times. If you are so confident, why not take the big gain, rather than hope for a bigger what if gain? What if it doesn't happen?
My holdings in MSFT AAPL MA VMW (now AVGO) back in 2008-09 went down over 50% from tops and today they are all up over 10x from my buy in.
My holdings in MDB NFLX SHOP NVDA all went down over 50% from tops in 2022-23 and they are now all up over 10x from my buy in.
Point is, I didn't get big gains because I got them during a big crash, I got big gains because I bought consistently growing companies and held them through bad macro events because micro was good. Look how far apart those dates are - big crashes don't come that often. Even if you got lucky and took advantage of a crash, what are you going to do, just wait for the next one? By that time the CAGR of the SP500 will have probably met or beat your return - this path requiring zero effort and no luck/timing.
During March 2020, I took advantage of buying EXPE MAR and TTD with dry powder. Okay TTD was looking great for awhile, now just barely positive. So sure, if you can take advantage of a big downturn that's great. But they are so rare you can't just wait for them or opportunity cost of time is going to nullify any short term big gain.