CIFR Reddit Mentions | ChartExchange

https://preview.redd.it/2cejwqpmxfjh1.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=b3cd942bf9807635a806e6340776129f6afbcf9b
I assume this post would be posted aftermarket close but anyways now that I'm back from my work, I can share my YOLO
***Not financial advice. I'm a WSB regard and this is my DD post, not a recommendation. Do your own diligence.***
# TL;DR up front
FRMI IPO'd at $21, spiked to $37, got crushed to $4.47 when the CEO was fired, and is sitting around $6.50 now. This week they signed their first real customer and hinted the lease will be guaranteed by an unnamed major AI company — the market thinks it's AMD. AMD just raised its largest-ever bond offering, settling Monday. Separately, and I think more importantly, CoreWeave and Nebius both reported earnings this week showing they can't get enough contracted power at any price, which tells me something about where this whole sector is headed regardless of what happens with the AMD rumor specifically. Institutions have been building positions aggressively. A subpoena dropped after close today and I don't think it's what people are going to assume it is.
# The backstory
Fermi went public on October 1, 2025 at $21 a share to build Project Matador — a planned 17-gigawatt private power and data center campus outside Amarillo, Texas, combining natural gas, nuclear, solar, and battery storage. The stock ran to an all-time high of $36.99 the very next day, purely on the story. There were no tenants and no revenue yet.
Then things fell apart. On April 17, 2026, the board fired co-founder and CEO Toby Neugebauer "for cause," saying his conduct had created disruption and threatened key relationships. Neugebauer disputed it, sued the company, and tried to force a shareholder vote to pack the board with his own picks, including himself. It turned into months of litigation and a consent-revocation fight. The board itself said the stock had fallen more than 80% during his tenure. Shares bottomed at $4.47 in early April, right in the middle of all of it.
https://preview.redd.it/97v0qpnnxfjh1.png?width=1058&format=png&auto=webp&s=5f4772f60a72828fb5189b953eded7d31b745ae7
New leadership, backed by the company's second-largest shareholder, won that fight and laid out a 90-day plan on the Q1 call: land tenants, keep building, shore up the balance sheet, and push harder on hyperscaler outreach. Since then the stock has climbed back roughly 40-45% off its low.
I bring all this up because the entire bear case on this stock for months has been "no revenue, no tenants, dysfunctional leadership." That thesis just got a lot weaker this week, because they actually delivered on the first part of the plan.
# [The TensorWave deal](https://tensorwave.com/blog/fermi-announces-binding-lease-agreement-with-tensorwave)
On August 11, Fermi announced a 15-year lease with TensorWave, an AI cloud provider that runs exclusively on AMD hardware. The terms: 222 megawatts signed in the first phase, with expansion rights up to 650 megawatts across three phases, roughly $6.5 billion in contracted revenue over the term, and delivery starting in the second half of 2027.
The interesting part is that Fermi disclosed the lease is expected to be guaranteed by "one of the global leaders in AI," without naming who. The market has landed on AMD as the likely candidate, and there's a real reason for that: AMD Ventures has invested in TensorWave twice, first in its Series A and then leading its $350 million Series B at a $1.55 billion valuation. TensorWave's entire fleet is AMD Instinct GPUs. This isn't just speculation on my part — financial media picked up on the same connection within days of the announcement.
Fermi's most recent 10-Q gives the company until September 30, 2026 to finalize this kind of guarantor arrangement, so there's an actual deadline attached to this, not just an open-ended maybe.
The logic behind why AMD would do this: it's the same approach Nvidia has used with its neocloud partners for a while now — back the power lease so your GPU customer can get financing, which gets your chips deployed faster and makes your reported demand look like real, installed capacity instead of a backlog number. If TensorWave is meant to be AMD's version of a Nebius-style partner, AMD standing behind the power lease is what makes that relationship actually work.
# The timing on AMD's bond sale
# [August 13, 2026 -Filing under Securities Act Rules 163/433 of free writing prospectuses](https://www.reddit.com/r/AMD_Stock/comments/1vno26b/august_13_2026_fwp_filing_under_securities_act/)
* **Issuer:** Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.
* **Trade Date:** August 13, 2026
* **Settlement Date:** August 17, 2026 (T+2)
>
**$1,250,000,000 4.600% Senior Notes Due 2029**
>**$1,500,000,000 5.000% Senior Notes Due 2031**
>**$1,000,000,000 5.250% Senior Notes Due 2033**
>**$1,000,000,000 5.500% Senior Notes Due 2036**
Here's the part I find genuinely worth paying attention to, and I want to be careful not to overstate it.
On August 13, AMD priced its largest bond offering ever — $4.75 billion across four tranches, pricing tighter than initial guidance on strong demand. To be direct about what the filing actually says: AMD describes the proceeds as going toward general corporate purposes, including refinancing $875 million of debt maturing next month. It does not mention TensorWave, Fermi, or any guarantee. I looked for that language and it isn't there.
What I do think is worth noting is the settlement date. These bonds settle T+2, which lands on Monday, August 17 — inside the window before Fermi's own September 30 deadline. Whether or not this specific raise is earmarked for the guarantee, AMD is clearly building fresh balance sheet flexibility in the same week this decision has to get made. If they are going to step in as guarantor, waiting until the cash actually clears before announcing a new contingent obligation of this size would be the more conventional way to sequence it. So I read Monday or Tuesday as a plausible window, not a certainty.
# [Schneider, AMD Launch Helios AI Factory Design](https://www.miragenews.com/schneider-amd-launch-helios-ai-factory-design-1726424/)
There's also a second data point from the same day that I think fits into this picture, even though it isn't about Fermi at all. On August 13, Schneider Electric and AMD jointly announced a validated reference design for AMD's Helios rackscale platform — essentially a pre-engineered blueprint for how power, cooling, and compute should be built together at data center scale, supporting AI clusters up to 10.4 megawatts and individual racks up to 246 kilowatts. On its own this is a normal infrastructure-partnership announcement, but I think it's a useful signal about where AMD's priorities are right now: they're not just selling chips anymore, they're actively packaging the power and cooling design work that a customer needs to actually stand up gigawatt-scale AI capacity. That's the same posture Nvidia has taken with its neocloud partners — showing up earlier in the stack, closer to the physical infrastructure layer, not just the silicon. Read alongside the TensorWave guarantor language and the bond raise, it fits a pattern of AMD positioning itself to be more directly involved in how its AI customers actually get built and powered, rather than just shipping GPUs and leaving infrastructure to someone else. This supports the thesis of "AMD is moving toward the neocloud-style playbook"
# Why the neocloud earnings matter more than the AMD rumor
[link to the nebius ER transcript](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NBIS/earnings/NBIS-Q2-2026-earnings_call-655490.html)
[link to the Coreweave transcript](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CRWV/earnings/CRWV-Q2-2026-earnings_call-662772.html)
This is the part of the thesis that I think stands on its own, independent of whether the AMD theory pans out.
CoreWeave and Nebius both reported second-quarter results this week, and both told a version of the same story: they cannot secure contracted power fast enough to keep up with demand.
CoreWeave reported revenue of $2.6 billion, up 112% year over year, with a revenue backlog of $104 billion, up 246% year over year — and that figure excludes over $25 billion in new commitments signed in early Q3 that aren't even counted yet. Contracted power went from 3.7 gigawatts to 4.2 gigawatts in a matter of weeks. Management raised 2026 capex guidance to $35-39 billion and is targeting 8 gigawatts of active power by 2030.
Nebius reported revenue of $582 million, up 454% year over year, with annualized run-rate revenue reaching $3 billion, up 58% in a single quarter. They raised their contracted power target for the third time this year, now sitting at 5 gigawatts by year-end. On the call, management said they could sell their entire 2027 capacity today on current terms and are deliberately holding some of it back for better deals. Pricing on new contracts is now landing around $40-50 million per megawatt, roughly double where it was a year ago.
I think that's the real signal here. Two of the most closely watched AI infrastructure companies in the market are raising their power targets every quarter and still can't fully meet demand, and the price they're willing to pay per megawatt has roughly doubled in about a year. That points to permitted, deliverable power becoming the actual bottleneck in this industry — more so than chips at this point, since chip supply can theoretically scale with fab capacity, but you can't manufacture a completed interconnection or an air permit on that same timeline.
That's why I think the hyperscalers and neoclouds are moving with urgency right now. If Nebius is already selling out 2027 capacity and CoreWeave is tripling active power in a single quarter while still raising capex guidance, then the calculation for everyone else is simple: whoever doesn't have power locked in soon doesn't get to compete for that demand later.
[CoreWeave Revenue Backlog](https://preview.redd.it/rcjerxmpxfjh1.png?width=669&format=png&auto=webp&s=90183a63bd44775b171957fdc9dde096e7379672)
[Coreweave contracted power expansion](https://preview.redd.it/r00up0gqxfjh1.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=9a2e18d72910b5c2598882d27d70ee22e79580a4)
[Nebius Contracted GWs of power in 2026](https://preview.redd.it/9qpz96arxfjh1.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=aa6197fd7881c86aaf710599e5032388f51fed27)
Here's roughly how Fermi and its comps stack up on the metric that I think actually matters right now, which is gigawatts:
* **Bloom Energy**
* **Role:** Provides solid oxide fuel cell energy solutions and microgrids to power AI and cloud infrastructure.
* **Current Position:** Over 400 MW deployed specifically at data centers worldwide (with over 1.5 GW across all global installations). They also have an initial 1.2 GW of capacity currently contracted with Oracle.
* **Expectations/Targets:** Up to 2.8 GW planned under a master services agreement with Oracle, and up to 1 GW targeted under an agreement with American Electric Power (AEP).
* **FRMI**
* **Role:** Owns land and permits; leases power to tenants.
* **Current Position:** \~6 GW permitted.
* **Expectations/Targets:** 17 GW planned buildout, with \~1.5 GW ramping through 2027.
* **KEEL**
* **Current Position:** No binding hyperscale tenant secured yet.
* **Expectations/Targets:** \~2.2 GW pipeline.
* **CIFR / WULF / HUT**
* **Current Position:** Specific capacities are not listed, but comparable companies trade around $20M to $25M per contracted MW.
* **Expectations/Targets:** N/A.
* **CRWV (CoreWeave)**
* **Role:** Neocloud; buys/leases power to sell compute.
* **Current Position:** 4.2 GW contracted.
* **Expectations/Targets:** Targeting 8 GW by 2030.
* **NBIS (Nebius)**
* **Role:** Neocloud; buys/leases power to sell compute.
* **Current Position:** Currently paying between $40M and $50M per MW.
* **Expectations/Targets:** 5 GW contracted target.
The framing I keep coming back to: CoreWeave and Nebius are the buyers in this trade, and they're paying up. Fermi and Keel are two of the few public companies positioned as sellers. Fermi's total planned buildout is close to eight times Keel's pipeline, and unlike Keel, Fermi already has a signed, revenue-generating contract. This might mean TensorWave might be a developing Neocloud for AMD business, further enhancing the rumors.
# The permitting moat
This is the part of the thesis I think gets underweighted. Every hyperscaler would rather build its own power than lease it, but interconnection and environmental permitting realistically take years to clear. The data shows that shortcutting this process is nearly impossible:
* **Multi-Year Delays:** The time required to secure grid connection approvals has skyrocketed. [According to the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) 2025 ](https://loopback.systems/insights/lawrence-berkeley-2025-interconnection-queue-report-overview)"Queued Up" report, a typical energy project reaching commercial operation now spends an average of **55 months (about 4.5 to 5 years)** just sitting in the queue.
* **Extremely Low Success Rates:** While submitting an interconnection request is relatively easy, successfully navigating the queue is extraordinarily difficult. The LBNL report notes that historically, only about **19% of projects (representing just 13% of capacity)** that enter the queue actually end up getting built and successfully connected to the grid.
* **Recent Texas Regulatory Pushbacks:** The state of Texas i[s actively making it harder and more expensive for massive data ](https://www.foley.com/p/102mokd/public-utility-commission-of-texas-issues-proposed-rules-for-large-load-interconn/)centers to plug into the grid. Following the passage of Texas Senate Bill 6 (SB6) in June 2025, the PUCT proposed severe financial obligations for new 75+ MW loads, including a [non-refundable $50,000/MW interconnection fee.](https://www.gtlaw.com/en/insights/2026/3/texas-senate-bill-6-update-what-data-centers-large-load-customers-should-know-about-proposed-interconnection-standards) Furthermore, on **August 3, 2026**, Governor Greg Abbott ordered a "comprehensive verification and audit" of all data centers in the ERCOT queue, effectively placing an immediate pause on new approvals.
* **The Fermi Advantage:** Air permits alone can run 1.5 years before construction even starts. Fermi already holds an approved roughly 6GW Clean Air Permit, with a second 5GW application filed. They also have more than 2GW of long-lead generation equipment purchased, with Siemens turbines physically arriving at U.S. ports (e.g., Houston on July 28th).
That's not something you can shortcut with more capital. You either already cleared the permitting process or you didn't, and that's the actual edge here.
# Balance sheet and dilution
They raised $431.25 million in 5% convertible senior notes due 2031, with an initial conversion price around $9.52. They also bought a capped call that pushes the effective conversion price to $14.64 — meaning existing shareholders see no dilution from these notes unless the stock more than doubles from where it priced, and even a full triple only dilutes around 2%. They've also drawn over $865 million in dedicated equipment financing to fund turbine purchases through 2028 without touching equity.
The practical upshot is that this stock has room to run before dilution becomes a real factor. If a guarantor announcement lands with the stock above $14.64, that's the level where options positioning and convert-holder math start to line up.
https://preview.redd.it/9q5pw6usxfjh1.png?width=669&format=png&auto=webp&s=334a6013acbb4e2773fe5db902e54e64f9dae800
# The valuation math
There's a sum-of-the-parts framework worth walking through carefully rather than just repeating.
On the TensorWave contract itself: comps like CIFR, WULF, and HUT trade around $20-25 million per contracted megawatt. Using a conservative $15 million per MW, the 222MW signed so far implies roughly $3.3 billion of value, before counting any of the expansion to 650MW. Worth noting — Nebius is currently getting $40-50 million per MW for its own contracted power, which, while not a perfect comparison given the different business models, suggests the $15-25 million range used here may be understating rather than overstating things.
Adding up the smaller interconnection assets (Xcel, GE TM500, and the SGT-800 fleet, net of what's committed to TensorWave) at a conservative $1 million per MW gives roughly $656 million. The larger Siemens F-frame turbines, at Evercore's cited premium of about $2 million per MW, add roughly $2.2 billion.
Put those three pieces together — deliberately excluding the land, the pipeline, and other infrastructure — and you get around $6.19 billion in asset value. Net out about $1 billion of debt, add back roughly $442 million of cash, and equity value comes to about $5.6 billion, or roughly $8.65 per share against 650 million shares outstanding. That's against a stock currently trading around $6.50, which implies something like 25-30% undervaluation using inputs that sit at the conservative end of their respective ranges.
A separate approach focused just on the TensorWave lease gets to a similar place: 222MW at a blended $14.5 million per MW build cost implies roughly $3.2 billion invested, against $6.5 billion of contracted revenue over 15 years — a yield on cost around 13.5%. At an 85% NOI margin and a 15x multiple, that single contract alone supports a value in the $5.5-5.7 billion range, before counting the rest of the platform.
https://preview.redd.it/sziqaojtxfjh1.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=f9afde77e844488b0769abf872d24638e6287769
Shoutout to [Tpatty343](https://www.reddit.com/user/Tpatty343/) for the calculations
# The SpaceX theory of potential Hyperscaler tenant
**(this time, shoutout to** [ohawk1](https://www.reddit.com/user/ohawk1/) **for the analysis)**
**The Facts**
In a June 17 DFAN14A filing Toby mentions ‘Elon’ by name twice including once from a screen shot of a memo from Cathy Lantroop dated Jan 3. [\[Link.\]](https://www.bamsec.com/filing/121390026069451?cik=2071778)
In June, Fermi retained Elon Musk’s personal attorney to represent them in certain litigation matters. Posted link to Alex Spiro’s Wikipedia page so you can see how close this guy is to Elon. [\[Link.\]](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/fermi-files-definitive-consent-revocation-statement-and-mails-letter-to-shareholders-302799854.html) [\[Link.\]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alex_Spiro)
On July 22^(nd), the Information published an article that their sources indicate that SpaceX is exploring a 1GW+ data center in Texas for delivery in 2027 and that the proposed site could potentially be bigger than the Memphis site. [\[Link.\]](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/spacexai-explores-major-data-center-expansion-texas)
SpaceX is currently hiring what seems to be a very large data center team to be located in Texas. [\[Link.\]](https://www.spacex.com/careers/jobs?programs=Starlink&locations=Austin,%20TX)
**Circumstantial Evidence**
Most people do not fully appreciate the true scale of SpaceX’s terrestrial data center ambitions. [\[Link.\]](https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/2082817582667796992)
Gavin Baker recently posted on twitter that SpaceX is planning to add 4GW of compute in 2027 and another 4GW of compute in 2028 – all in terrestrial sites. [\[Link.\]](https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/2082817582667796992)
On July 28^(th), research platform Funda AI published a note that based on channel checks in the industry, SpaceX has more 6.5GWs of chips and server equipment on order for delivery beginning at the end of 2027. Other suppliers of key datacenter components confirm the same. [\[Link.\]](https://fundaai.substack.com/p/deepspcx-xai-8gw-buildout-mapping)
With the addition of Minihard, Elon’s Memphis site is tapped out of power.[ \[Link.\]](https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/musk-confirms-fourth-spacexai-data-center-in-memphis-company-starts-removing-illegal-gas-turbines/)
Multiple lawsuits have been filed against Elon for the unpermitted mobile gens on the site including a suit filed in April by the NAACP and Southern Environmental Law Center.
(July 31) SpaceX agreed with the Mississippi Department of Environmental Quality 69 of the mobile turbines. It is now unclear if he has sufficient power to run the recently announced Minihard datacenter. [\[Link.\]](https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/musk-confirms-fourth-spacexai-data-center-in-memphis-company-starts-removing-illegal-gas-turbines/)
On the minihard datacenter is being billed as the first truly ‘modular’ datacenter. Given this will be filled with GB300 processors, I speculate that this was designed in conjunction with NVIDIA who has partnered with SLB to create this design. On the Fermi Q1 earnings call, the team specially references modular data centers and a visit to SLB (Schlumberger) factory. [\[Link.\]](https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/05/14/fermi-frmi-q4-2025-earnings-call-transcript/)
**What this might mean**
SpaceX currently has 8GW of chips, worth 100s of billions of dollars, on the way and currently has no where to put them (sidenote: these were likely financed or leased in an SPV off balance sheet)
On the plus side, 8GWs of chips could theoretically generate more than $150bn of Revenue for SpaceX once deployed assuming the same lease rates at Google and Anthropic deal (assuming $8.50/GPUhr).
# [Recent 10 Q filings (August 14th, post market 4pm EST)](https://app.quotemedia.com/data/downloadFiling?webmasterId=102691&ref=320279805&type=PDF&cdn=bdbdc8868b96ed3193f7cab9b9f3a850&formType=10-Q&formDescription=General+form+for+quarterly+reports+under+Section+13+or+15%28d%29&dateFiled=2026-08-14&cik=2071778)
Reading the 10-Q filed alongside Thursday's earnings: the near-term power ramp guidance has been walked back from the more aggressive framing of a year ago to roughly 1.5GW through 2027, explicitly "subject to binding tenant agreements." That qualifier matters — it ties the pace of the buildout to signing more contracts, not to a fixed construction schedule Fermi controls on its own.
The flip side is that this is the same lever driving the neocloud story above. If Fermi lands even one more anchor tenant, that 1.5GW number can move quickly, because the physical assets — turbines, permits, interconnection — are already substantially in place. The constraint right now is contracts, not construction capacity, which lines up with what CoreWeave and Nebius are both describing as the industry-wide bottleneck.
# Institutional positioning
A few data points from recent 13F filings: [Citadel Advisors added 4,989,531 shares](https://www.quiverquant.com/news/FERMI+%28%24FRMI%29+Releases+Q2+2026+Earnings), up 404.9%, in Q1 2026. BlackRock added 3,397,240 shares, up 421.6%, in Q2 2026. Jane Street Group is one of the largest institutional holders outright. Other holders include UBS, Point72, Balyasny, Bank of America, Verition, and Nuveen.
Zooming out, BlackRock's own Q1 13F showed a broader rotation — trimming several large tech positions while adding meaningfully to Exxon, Chevron, and semiconductor names on the back of the AI power demand story. Separately, the Jane Street-backed fund Situational Awareness has been rotating out of pure semiconductor exposure and into energy and HPC infrastructure names including KEEL, RIOT, and Nebius.
None of this guarantees anything on its own — institutions adjust positions constantly — but seeing two of the largest, most sophisticated players in the market more than quadruple their stakes in the same window this stock was recovering from a CEO firing tells me something about how they're reading the setup.
https://preview.redd.it/84iprj9vxfjh1.png?width=870&format=png&auto=webp&s=c06af6c5a731803edc9f433f0a5289e5623e2b57
https://preview.redd.it/dpwp00rvxfjh1.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=b68ecc5ed73a80503c19f91d6a07eedd16a15e74
https://preview.redd.it/6m1u108wxfjh1.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=2f837afc683e82d4f666445f404d61152f74e9c9
https://preview.redd.it/thc3qclwxfjh1.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=b7d3130f641a51398c93b5e40dd856359beb9712
***Further SEC filings for FRMI can be found*** [***here***](https://fintel.io/so/us/frmi)
# KEEL versus FRMI
I want to be honest that I went back and forth between KEEL and FRMI before settling on this. KEEL is arguably a cleaner version of the same theme at a lower share price, with its own hyperscaler-talks narrative. But it has no binding tenant yet and is still burning cash winding down its previous business. FRMI has a signed $6.5 billion contract and a dated catalyst window — the September 30 deadline and the AMD bond settlement Monday.
KEEL is up double digits today, which is frustrating timing given I'd planned to rotate some shares back into it after a hoped-for FRMI catalyst next week :D But in my opinion based on recent 13F filings, both are solid options
# Downside and upside
If the guarantor arrangement doesn't happen by September 30, or falls through entirely, I don't think this stock re-tests $4.47. That low happened with zero signed tenants and an active governance crisis. There's now a real contract, physical construction underway, and permits in hand — even without a confirmed guarantor, that underlying asset base doesn't go away. A more likely outcome in that scenario looks like a pullback toward the recent trading range which is around high 5s or low 6s zone (around 10% pullback)
# [Recent FRMI site pictures, August 6th, 2026](https://www.reddit.com/r/FRMI/comments/1vhc5t1/site_check/)
https://preview.redd.it/y5phqf2yxfjh1.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=fafbb23172655cd0414a5254100b00772382aa5b
https://preview.redd.it/68mtsc2zxfjh1.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=83aa58571f1c2b4712be29beae28d3c44859a07e
https://preview.redd.it/bt8z6tnyxfjh1.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=fa26fe6007e51b47b32f4a888aaf7444ea6fb029
https://preview.redd.it/lgh8l6szxfjh1.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=931fe24cffb75cc806ede145f4899ff85445ac11
If a major AI company confirms as guarantor, or a second tenant gets announced, the math above puts fair value somewhere in the high $8s to low $9s using conservative assumptions on the currently known assets alone, before pricing in the 650MW expansion or additional tenants. That kind of headline would likely also close some of the discount that's been attached to this stock since the leadership fight, given how much of the recent skepticism has been about trust in management rather than the underlying assets. With that being said, any major news announced next week would easily have potential upwards momentum into double digits (expected swing of 50+%)
# Construction is actually happening
[Six Siemens SGT-800 gas turbines and their generators landed at the Port of Houston in February 2026](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/fermi-america-announces-arrival-of-6-siemens-energy-sgt-800-gas-turbines-at-port-of-houston-marking-major-milestone-in-natural-gas-power-timeline-302682327.html) — over 160 containers, seven vessels, a crane rated for 160 tons. [Three additional SGT6-5000F turbines](https://fermiamerica.com/first-siemens-turbines-arrive-for-project-matador/), rated up to 780 megawatts combined, landed at Houston in July and are headed to the Amarillo site, where site work is already underway with contractors Primoris and TSK. Fermi has drawn over $865 million in dedicated turbine financing to secure more equipment through 2028.
# The subpoena
After the close today, [Bloomberg reported](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-14/fermi-says-it-received-us-subpoena-related-to-project-matador) that Fermi disclosed it received a subpoena from a U.S. District Court for documents related to Project Matador, including documents tied to former members of the company's management team, with a similar request from the SEC. On a first read this looks bad. Here's why I'm not treating it that way.
The subpoena specifically targets former management, which lines up with the Neugebauer-era conflict rather than anything the current team has done since April. Adding to that read, Toby's father, Randy Neugebauer, who is trustee of the family trust and a former seven-term Congressman, [posted on X ](https://x.com/tobyrneugebauer/status/2088341180962558315?s=46)that he — not Toby, not Toby's wife — made the decision to sell some trust shares in the second quarter, and that Toby and his wife haven't sold a share since the IPO. Toby framed his father's decision as an independent fiduciary call based on his own read of who remains at the company. Taken together, this reads like legal cleanup from the previous leadership era landing at the same time the current team is trying to close a much larger deal, rather than a new problem with current management. I'd rather see this get investigated and resolved now than have it hang over the stock into next week
[Randy Neugebauer share sell off before June 30th, 2026](https://preview.redd.it/ysp1ruz0yfjh1.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=2fda5ef7761a31408fed0d06cc151295bc7600a9)
Worth noting that Toby’s dad would have sold these shares between **April 1 and June 30, 2026**. Before all the news we got this week, which means his beneficial ownership just dropped massively. This might imply his previous proxy fights are now out of the picture and Fermi can finally start decoupling from their ex CEO
# [The nuclear filing](https://public-inspection.federalregister.gov/2026-05487.pdf?utm_source=chatgpt.com)
Separate from the near-term catalysts, there's a Federal Register and Notice of Intent confirming a formal environmental review is underway for Fermi's license application covering four AP1000 nuclear reactors, intended to deliver 4 gigawatts of baseload power to the campus. Fermi filed its initial application back in June 2025 and has been in the review process since. This is a multi-year regulatory track, not something that moves the stock in the near term, but it confirms the nuclear portion of the 17GW plan is an active federal process rather than something that only exists in an investor presentation.
Price history
IPO on October 1, 2025 at $21. All-time high of $36.99 the next day. All-time low of $4.47 in early April during the leadership crisis. Currently trading around $6.42-6.60, with a market cap of roughly $4.2-4.6 billion.
That range tells the whole story of this stock — from pure hype, to a genuine crisis of confidence, to a real signed contract at a fraction of the original price. And it's playing out in the same week the two largest neoclouds in the market are telling everyone, on their own earnings calls, that they can't get enough contracted power.
# Conclusion
In my opinion, this is low risk high reward bet. Potential hyperscaler/neocloud news next week or AMD confirming to be the guarant once bonds settle on Monday, August 17th positions FRMI into solid double digits, with an upward swing of at least +50% in the following weeks. In case the announcement gets delayed, the stock will bottom in low 6s and high 5s which is less than 10% downside risk. On paper, adding the recent tenant deal and properties/equipment's Fermi owns averages to $8.65 share price against 650 million shares outstanding (not accounting for a dilution) which implies 25-30% undervaluation. For that reason, I am YOLOing my portfolio (+ some extra from webull) into FRMI Long shares. Comments are welcome

https://preview.redd.it/2cejwqpmxfjh1.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=b3cd942bf9807635a806e6340776129f6afbcf9b
[](https://preview.redd.it/frmi-yolo-dd-v0-kcor0go6wfjh1.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=e3eddb332d5bffcb46efbdcde076fecf3d03e67e)
I assume this post would be posted aftermarket close but anyways now that I'm back from my work, I can share my YOLO
***Not financial advice. I'm a WSB regard and this is my DD post, not a recommendation. Do your own diligence.***
# TL;DR up front
FRMI IPO'd at $21, spiked to $37, got crushed to $4.47 when the CEO was fired, and is sitting around $6.50 now. This week they signed their first real customer and hinted the lease will be guaranteed by an unnamed major AI company — the market thinks it's AMD. AMD just raised its largest-ever bond offering, settling Monday. Separately, and I think more importantly, CoreWeave and Nebius both reported earnings this week showing they can't get enough contracted power at any price, which tells me something about where this whole sector is headed regardless of what happens with the AMD rumor specifically. Institutions have been building positions aggressively. A subpoena dropped after close today and I don't think it's what people are going to assume it is.
# The backstory
Fermi went public on October 1, 2025 at $21 a share to build Project Matador — a planned 17-gigawatt private power and data center campus outside Amarillo, Texas, combining natural gas, nuclear, solar, and battery storage. The stock ran to an all-time high of $36.99 the very next day, purely on the story. There were no tenants and no revenue yet.
Then things fell apart. On April 17, 2026, the board fired co-founder and CEO Toby Neugebauer "for cause," saying his conduct had created disruption and threatened key relationships. Neugebauer disputed it, sued the company, and tried to force a shareholder vote to pack the board with his own picks, including himself. It turned into months of litigation and a consent-revocation fight. The board itself said the stock had fallen more than 80% during his tenure. Shares bottomed at $4.47 in early April, right in the middle of all of it.
[](https://preview.redd.it/frmi-yolo-dd-v0-96im3h58wfjh1.png?width=1058&format=png&auto=webp&s=6ce9b04084e6d9b4978c390d534baf75306d3bbe)
https://preview.redd.it/97v0qpnnxfjh1.png?width=1058&format=png&auto=webp&s=5f4772f60a72828fb5189b953eded7d31b745ae7
New leadership, backed by the company's second-largest shareholder, won that fight and laid out a 90-day plan on the Q1 call: land tenants, keep building, shore up the balance sheet, and push harder on hyperscaler outreach. Since then the stock has climbed back roughly 40-45% off its low.
I bring all this up because the entire bear case on this stock for months has been "no revenue, no tenants, dysfunctional leadership." That thesis just got a lot weaker this week, because they actually delivered on the first part of the plan.
# [The TensorWave deal](https://tensorwave.com/blog/fermi-announces-binding-lease-agreement-with-tensorwave)
On August 11, Fermi announced a 15-year lease with TensorWave, an AI cloud provider that runs exclusively on AMD hardware. The terms: 222 megawatts signed in the first phase, with expansion rights up to 650 megawatts across three phases, roughly $6.5 billion in contracted revenue over the term, and delivery starting in the second half of 2027.
The interesting part is that Fermi disclosed the lease is expected to be guaranteed by "one of the global leaders in AI," without naming who. The market has landed on AMD as the likely candidate, and there's a real reason for that: AMD Ventures has invested in TensorWave twice, first in its Series A and then leading its $350 million Series B at a $1.55 billion valuation. TensorWave's entire fleet is AMD Instinct GPUs. This isn't just speculation on my part — financial media picked up on the same connection within days of the announcement.
Fermi's most recent 10-Q gives the company until September 30, 2026 to finalize this kind of guarantor arrangement, so there's an actual deadline attached to this, not just an open-ended maybe.
The logic behind why AMD would do this: it's the same approach Nvidia has used with its neocloud partners for a while now — back the power lease so your GPU customer can get financing, which gets your chips deployed faster and makes your reported demand look like real, installed capacity instead of a backlog number. If TensorWave is meant to be AMD's version of a Nebius-style partner, AMD standing behind the power lease is what makes that relationship actually work.
# The timing on AMD's bond sale
# [August 13, 2026 -Filing under Securities Act Rules 163/433 of free writing prospectuses](https://www.reddit.com/r/AMD_Stock/comments/1vno26b/august_13_2026_fwp_filing_under_securities_act/)
* **Issuer:** Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.
* **Trade Date:** August 13, 2026
* **Settlement Date:** August 17, 2026 (T+2)
>
**$1,250,000,000 4.600% Senior Notes Due 2029**
>**$1,500,000,000 5.000% Senior Notes Due 2031**
>**$1,000,000,000 5.250% Senior Notes Due 2033**
>**$1,000,000,000 5.500% Senior Notes Due 2036**
Here's the part I find genuinely worth paying attention to, and I want to be careful not to overstate it.
On August 13, AMD priced its largest bond offering ever — $4.75 billion across four tranches, pricing tighter than initial guidance on strong demand. To be direct about what the filing actually says: AMD describes the proceeds as going toward general corporate purposes, including refinancing $875 million of debt maturing next month. It does not mention TensorWave, Fermi, or any guarantee. I looked for that language and it isn't there.
What I do think is worth noting is the settlement date. These bonds settle T+2, which lands on Monday, August 17 — inside the window before Fermi's own September 30 deadline. Whether or not this specific raise is earmarked for the guarantee, AMD is clearly building fresh balance sheet flexibility in the same week this decision has to get made. If they are going to step in as guarantor, waiting until the cash actually clears before announcing a new contingent obligation of this size would be the more conventional way to sequence it. So I read Monday or Tuesday as a plausible window, not a certainty.
# [Schneider, AMD Launch Helios AI Factory Design](https://www.miragenews.com/schneider-amd-launch-helios-ai-factory-design-1726424/)
There's also a second data point from the same day that I think fits into this picture, even though it isn't about Fermi at all. On August 13, Schneider Electric and AMD jointly announced a validated reference design for AMD's Helios rackscale platform — essentially a pre-engineered blueprint for how power, cooling, and compute should be built together at data center scale, supporting AI clusters up to 10.4 megawatts and individual racks up to 246 kilowatts. On its own this is a normal infrastructure-partnership announcement, but I think it's a useful signal about where AMD's priorities are right now: they're not just selling chips anymore, they're actively packaging the power and cooling design work that a customer needs to actually stand up gigawatt-scale AI capacity. That's the same posture Nvidia has taken with its neocloud partners — showing up earlier in the stack, closer to the physical infrastructure layer, not just the silicon. Read alongside the TensorWave guarantor language and the bond raise, it fits a pattern of AMD positioning itself to be more directly involved in how its AI customers actually get built and powered, rather than just shipping GPUs and leaving infrastructure to someone else. This supports the thesis of "AMD is moving toward the neocloud-style playbook"
# Why the neocloud earnings matter more than the AMD rumor
[link to the nebius ER transcript](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NBIS/earnings/NBIS-Q2-2026-earnings_call-655490.html)
[link to the Coreweave transcript](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CRWV/earnings/CRWV-Q2-2026-earnings_call-662772.html)
This is the part of the thesis that I think stands on its own, independent of whether the AMD theory pans out.
CoreWeave and Nebius both reported second-quarter results this week, and both told a version of the same story: they cannot secure contracted power fast enough to keep up with demand.
CoreWeave reported revenue of $2.6 billion, up 112% year over year, with a revenue backlog of $104 billion, up 246% year over year — and that figure excludes over $25 billion in new commitments signed in early Q3 that aren't even counted yet. Contracted power went from 3.7 gigawatts to 4.2 gigawatts in a matter of weeks. Management raised 2026 capex guidance to $35-39 billion and is targeting 8 gigawatts of active power by 2030.
Nebius reported revenue of $582 million, up 454% year over year, with annualized run-rate revenue reaching $3 billion, up 58% in a single quarter. They raised their contracted power target for the third time this year, now sitting at 5 gigawatts by year-end. On the call, management said they could sell their entire 2027 capacity today on current terms and are deliberately holding some of it back for better deals. Pricing on new contracts is now landing around $40-50 million per megawatt, roughly double where it was a year ago.
I think that's the real signal here. Two of the most closely watched AI infrastructure companies in the market are raising their power targets every quarter and still can't fully meet demand, and the price they're willing to pay per megawatt has roughly doubled in about a year. That points to permitted, deliverable power becoming the actual bottleneck in this industry — more so than chips at this point, since chip supply can theoretically scale with fab capacity, but you can't manufacture a completed interconnection or an air permit on that same timeline.
That's why I think the hyperscalers and neoclouds are moving with urgency right now. If Nebius is already selling out 2027 capacity and CoreWeave is tripling active power in a single quarter while still raising capex guidance, then the calculation for everyone else is simple: whoever doesn't have power locked in soon doesn't get to compete for that demand later.
[](https://preview.redd.it/frmi-yolo-dd-v0-tn3b10hbwfjh1.png?width=669&format=png&auto=webp&s=199cf1a490de48e066398bfe1a4a7f21944de183)
[CoreWeave Revenue Backlog](https://preview.redd.it/rcjerxmpxfjh1.png?width=669&format=png&auto=webp&s=90183a63bd44775b171957fdc9dde096e7379672)
[Coreweave contracted power expansion](https://preview.redd.it/r00up0gqxfjh1.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=9a2e18d72910b5c2598882d27d70ee22e79580a4)
[](https://preview.redd.it/frmi-yolo-dd-v0-f24skjhcwfjh1.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=a79834e8378b186ff71ce4964638846a52bf4c94)
[Nebius Contracted GWs of power in 2026](https://preview.redd.it/9qpz96arxfjh1.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=aa6197fd7881c86aaf710599e5032388f51fed27)
[](https://preview.redd.it/frmi-yolo-dd-v0-t7msxxhdwfjh1.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=2cab057afe1fb10b6dc651d7aa179fc68441c2da)
Here's roughly how Fermi and its comps stack up on the metric that I think actually matters right now, which is gigawatts:
* **Bloom Energy**
* **Role:** Provides solid oxide fuel cell energy solutions and microgrids to power AI and cloud infrastructure.
* **Current Position:** Over 400 MW deployed specifically at data centers worldwide (with over 1.5 GW across all global installations). They also have an initial 1.2 GW of capacity currently contracted with Oracle.
* **Expectations/Targets:** Up to 2.8 GW planned under a master services agreement with Oracle, and up to 1 GW targeted under an agreement with American Electric Power (AEP).
* **FRMI**
* **Role:** Owns land and permits; leases power to tenants.
* **Current Position:** \~6 GW permitted.
* **Expectations/Targets:** 17 GW planned buildout, with \~1.5 GW ramping through 2027.
* **KEEL**
* **Current Position:** No binding hyperscale tenant secured yet.
* **Expectations/Targets:** \~2.2 GW pipeline.
* **CIFR / WULF / HUT**
* **Current Position:** Specific capacities are not listed, but comparable companies trade around $20M to $25M per contracted MW.
* **Expectations/Targets:** N/A.
* **CRWV (CoreWeave)**
* **Role:** Neocloud; buys/leases power to sell compute.
* **Current Position:** 4.2 GW contracted.
* **Expectations/Targets:** Targeting 8 GW by 2030.
* **NBIS (Nebius)**
* **Role:** Neocloud; buys/leases power to sell compute.
* **Current Position:** Currently paying between $40M and $50M per MW.
* **Expectations/Targets:** 5 GW contracted target.
The framing I keep coming back to: CoreWeave and Nebius are the buyers in this trade, and they're paying up. Fermi and Keel are two of the few public companies positioned as sellers. Fermi's total planned buildout is close to eight times Keel's pipeline, and unlike Keel, Fermi already has a signed, revenue-generating contract. This might mean TensorWave might be a developing Neocloud for AMD business, further enhancing the rumors.
# The permitting moat
This is the part of the thesis I think gets underweighted. Every hyperscaler would rather build its own power than lease it, but interconnection and environmental permitting realistically take years to clear. The data shows that shortcutting this process is nearly impossible:
* **Multi-Year Delays:** The time required to secure grid connection approvals has skyrocketed. [According to the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) 2025 ](https://loopback.systems/insights/lawrence-berkeley-2025-interconnection-queue-report-overview)"Queued Up" report, a typical energy project reaching commercial operation now spends an average of **55 months (about 4.5 to 5 years)** just sitting in the queue.
* **Extremely Low Success Rates:** While submitting an interconnection request is relatively easy, successfully navigating the queue is extraordinarily difficult. The LBNL report notes that historically, only about **19% of projects (representing just 13% of capacity)** that enter the queue actually end up getting built and successfully connected to the grid.
* **Recent Texas Regulatory Pushbacks:** The state of Texas i[s actively making it harder and more expensive for massive data ](https://www.foley.com/p/102mokd/public-utility-commission-of-texas-issues-proposed-rules-for-large-load-interconn/)centers to plug into the grid. Following the passage of Texas Senate Bill 6 (SB6) in June 2025, the PUCT proposed severe financial obligations for new 75+ MW loads, including a [non-refundable $50,000/MW interconnection fee.](https://www.gtlaw.com/en/insights/2026/3/texas-senate-bill-6-update-what-data-centers-large-load-customers-should-know-about-proposed-interconnection-standards) Furthermore, on **August 3, 2026**, Governor Greg Abbott ordered a "comprehensive verification and audit" of all data centers in the ERCOT queue, effectively placing an immediate pause on new approvals.
* **The Fermi Advantage:** Air permits alone can run 1.5 years before construction even starts. Fermi already holds an approved roughly 6GW Clean Air Permit, with a second 5GW application filed. They also have more than 2GW of long-lead generation equipment purchased, with Siemens turbines physically arriving at U.S. ports (e.g., Houston on July 28th).
That's not something you can shortcut with more capital. You either already cleared the permitting process or you didn't, and that's the actual edge here.
# Balance sheet and dilution
They raised $431.25 million in 5% convertible senior notes due 2031, with an initial conversion price around $9.52. They also bought a capped call that pushes the effective conversion price to $14.64 — meaning existing shareholders see no dilution from these notes unless the stock more than doubles from where it priced, and even a full triple only dilutes around 2%. They've also drawn over $865 million in dedicated equipment financing to fund turbine purchases through 2028 without touching equity.
The practical upshot is that this stock has room to run before dilution becomes a real factor. If a guarantor announcement lands with the stock above $14.64, that's the level where options positioning and convert-holder math start to line up.
[](https://preview.redd.it/frmi-yolo-dd-v0-dwwqtr3fwfjh1.png?width=669&format=png&auto=webp&s=a4aa292b79a37f30b516ea1c22e91549191601a1)
https://preview.redd.it/9q5pw6usxfjh1.png?width=669&format=png&auto=webp&s=334a6013acbb4e2773fe5db902e54e64f9dae800
# The valuation math
There's a sum-of-the-parts framework worth walking through carefully rather than just repeating.
On the TensorWave contract itself: comps like CIFR, WULF, and HUT trade around $20-25 million per contracted megawatt. Using a conservative $15 million per MW, the 222MW signed so far implies roughly $3.3 billion of value, before counting any of the expansion to 650MW. Worth noting — Nebius is currently getting $40-50 million per MW for its own contracted power, which, while not a perfect comparison given the different business models, suggests the $15-25 million range used here may be understating rather than overstating things.
Adding up the smaller interconnection assets (Xcel, GE TM500, and the SGT-800 fleet, net of what's committed to TensorWave) at a conservative $1 million per MW gives roughly $656 million. The larger Siemens F-frame turbines, at Evercore's cited premium of about $2 million per MW, add roughly $2.2 billion.
Put those three pieces together — deliberately excluding the land, the pipeline, and other infrastructure — and you get around $6.19 billion in asset value. Net out about $1 billion of debt, add back roughly $442 million of cash, and equity value comes to about $5.6 billion, or roughly $8.65 per share against 650 million shares outstanding. That's against a stock currently trading around $6.50, which implies something like 25-30% undervaluation using inputs that sit at the conservative end of their respective ranges.
A separate approach focused just on the TensorWave lease gets to a similar place: 222MW at a blended $14.5 million per MW build cost implies roughly $3.2 billion invested, against $6.5 billion of contracted revenue over 15 years — a yield on cost around 13.5%. At an 85% NOI margin and a 15x multiple, that single contract alone supports a value in the $5.5-5.7 billion range, before counting the rest of the platform.
[](https://preview.redd.it/frmi-yolo-dd-v0-wgu41qzgwfjh1.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=da327716a04f95a30d39d326820750f6d3784a68)
https://preview.redd.it/sziqaojtxfjh1.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=f9afde77e844488b0769abf872d24638e6287769
Shoutout to [Tpatty343](https://www.reddit.com/user/Tpatty343/) for the calculations
# The SpaceX theory of potential Hyperscaler tenant
**(this time, shoutout to** [ohawk1](https://www.reddit.com/user/ohawk1/) **for the analysis)**
**The Facts**
In a June 17 DFAN14A filing Toby mentions ‘Elon’ by name twice including once from a screen shot of a memo from Cathy Lantroop dated Jan 3. \[Link.\]( [https://www.bamsec.com/filing/121390026069451?cik=2071778](https://www.bamsec.com/filing/121390026069451?cik=2071778))
In June, Fermi retained Elon Musk’s personal attorney to represent them in certain litigation matters. Posted link to Alex Spiro’s Wikipedia page so you can see how close this guy is to Elon. \[Link.\]( [https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/fermi-files-definitive-consent-revocation-statement-and-mails-letter-to-shareholders-302799854.html](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/fermi-files-definitive-consent-revocation-statement-and-mails-letter-to-shareholders-302799854.html)) \[Link.\]([https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alex\_Spiro](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alex_Spiro))
On July 22^(nd), the Information published an article that their sources indicate that SpaceX is exploring a 1GW+ data center in Texas for delivery in 2027 and that the proposed site could potentially be bigger than the Memphis site. \[Link.\]( [https://www.theinformation.com/articles/spacexai-explores-major-data-center-expansion-texas](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/spacexai-explores-major-data-center-expansion-texas))
SpaceX is currently hiring what seems to be a very large data center team to be located in Texas. \[Link.\]( [https://www.spacex.com/careers/jobs?programs=Starlink&locations=Austin,%20TX](https://www.spacex.com/careers/jobs?programs=Starlink&locations=Austin,%20TX))
**Circumstantial Evidence**
Most people do not fully appreciate the true scale of SpaceX’s terrestrial data center ambitions. \[Link.\]( [https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/2082817582667796992](https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/2082817582667796992))
Gavin Baker recently posted on twitter that SpaceX is planning to add 4GW of compute in 2027 and another 4GW of compute in 2028 – all in terrestrial sites. \[Link.\]( [https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/2082817582667796992](https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/2082817582667796992))
On July 28^(th), research platform Funda AI published a note that based on channel checks in the industry, SpaceX has more 6.5GWs of chips and server equipment on order for delivery beginning at the end of 2027. Other suppliers of key datacenter components confirm the same. \[Link.\]( [https://fundaai.substack.com/p/deepspcx-xai-8gw-buildout-mapping](https://fundaai.substack.com/p/deepspcx-xai-8gw-buildout-mapping))
With the addition of Minihard, Elon’s Memphis site is tapped out of power. \[Link.\]( [https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/musk-confirms-fourth-spacexai-data-center-in-memphis-company-starts-removing-illegal-gas-turbines/](https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/musk-confirms-fourth-spacexai-data-center-in-memphis-company-starts-removing-illegal-gas-turbines/))
Multiple lawsuits have been filed against Elon for the unpermitted mobile gens on the site including a suit filed in April by the NAACP and Southern Environmental Law Center.
(July 31) SpaceX agreed with the Mississippi Department of Environmental Quality 69 of the mobile turbines. It is now unclear if he has sufficient power to run the recently announced Minihard datacenter. \[Link.\]( [https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/musk-confirms-fourth-spacexai-data-center-in-memphis-company-starts-removing-illegal-gas-turbines/](https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/musk-confirms-fourth-spacexai-data-center-in-memphis-company-starts-removing-illegal-gas-turbines/))
On the minihard datacenter is being billed as the first truly ‘modular’ datacenter. Given this will be filled with GB300 processors, I speculate that this was designed in conjunction with NVIDIA who has partnered with SLB to create this design. On the Fermi Q1 earnings call, the team specially references modular data centers and a visit to SLB (Schlumberger) factory. \[Link.\]( [https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/05/14/fermi-frmi-q4-2025-earnings-call-transcript/](https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/05/14/fermi-frmi-q4-2025-earnings-call-transcript/))
**What this might mean**
SpaceX currently has 8GW of chips, worth 100s of billions of dollars, on the way and currently has no where to put them (sidenote: these were likely financed or leased in an SPV off balance sheet)
On the plus side, 8GWs of chips could theoretically generate more than $150bn of Revenue for SpaceX once deployed assuming the same lease rates at Google and Anthropic deal (assuming $8.50/GPUhr).
# [Recent 10 Q filings (August 14th, post market 4pm EST)](https://app.quotemedia.com/data/downloadFiling?webmasterId=102691&ref=320279805&type=PDF&cdn=bdbdc8868b96ed3193f7cab9b9f3a850&formType=10-Q&formDescription=General+form+for+quarterly+reports+under+Section+13+or+15%28d%29&dateFiled=2026-08-14&cik=2071778)
Reading the 10-Q filed alongside Thursday's earnings: the near-term power ramp guidance has been walked back from the more aggressive framing of a year ago to roughly 1.5GW through 2027, explicitly "subject to binding tenant agreements." That qualifier matters — it ties the pace of the buildout to signing more contracts, not to a fixed construction schedule Fermi controls on its own.
The flip side is that this is the same lever driving the neocloud story above. If Fermi lands even one more anchor tenant, that 1.5GW number can move quickly, because the physical assets — turbines, permits, interconnection — are already substantially in place. The constraint right now is contracts, not construction capacity, which lines up with what CoreWeave and Nebius are both describing as the industry-wide bottleneck.
# Institutional positioning
A few data points from recent 13F filings: [Citadel Advisors added 4,989,531 shares](https://www.quiverquant.com/news/FERMI+%28%24FRMI%29+Releases+Q2+2026+Earnings), up 404.9%, in Q1 2026. BlackRock added 3,397,240 shares, up 421.6%, in Q2 2026. Jane Street Group is one of the largest institutional holders outright. Other holders include UBS, Point72, Balyasny, Bank of America, Verition, and Nuveen.
Zooming out, BlackRock's own Q1 13F showed a broader rotation — trimming several large tech positions while adding meaningfully to Exxon, Chevron, and semiconductor names on the back of the AI power demand story. Separately, the Jane Street-backed fund Situational Awareness has been rotating out of pure semiconductor exposure and into energy and HPC infrastructure names including KEEL, RIOT, and Nebius.
None of this guarantees anything on its own — institutions adjust positions constantly — but seeing two of the largest, most sophisticated players in the market more than quadruple their stakes in the same window this stock was recovering from a CEO firing tells me something about how they're reading the setup.
https://preview.redd.it/84iprj9vxfjh1.png?width=870&format=png&auto=webp&s=c06af6c5a731803edc9f433f0a5289e5623e2b57
https://preview.redd.it/dpwp00rvxfjh1.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=b68ecc5ed73a80503c19f91d6a07eedd16a15e74
https://preview.redd.it/6m1u108wxfjh1.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=2f837afc683e82d4f666445f404d61152f74e9c9
https://preview.redd.it/thc3qclwxfjh1.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=b7d3130f641a51398c93b5e40dd856359beb9712
***Further SEC filings for FRMI can be found*** [***here***](https://fintel.io/so/us/frmi)
# KEEL versus FRMI
I want to be honest that I went back and forth between KEEL and FRMI before settling on this. KEEL is arguably a cleaner version of the same theme at a lower share price, with its own hyperscaler-talks narrative. But it has no binding tenant yet and is still burning cash winding down its previous business. FRMI has a signed $6.5 billion contract and a dated catalyst window — the September 30 deadline and the AMD bond settlement Monday.
KEEL is up double digits today, which is frustrating timing given I'd planned to rotate some shares back into it after a hoped-for FRMI catalyst next week :D But in my opinion based on recent 13F filings, both are solid options
# Downside and upside
If the guarantor arrangement doesn't happen by September 30, or falls through entirely, I don't think this stock re-tests $4.47. That low happened with zero signed tenants and an active governance crisis. There's now a real contract, physical construction underway, and permits in hand — even without a confirmed guarantor, that underlying asset base doesn't go away. A more likely outcome in that scenario looks like a pullback toward the recent trading range which is around high 5s or low 6s zone (around 10% pullback)
# [Recent FRMI site pictures, August 6th, 2026](https://www.reddit.com/r/FRMI/comments/1vhc5t1/site_check/)
[](https://preview.redd.it/frmi-yolo-dd-v0-rjnqntulwfjh1.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=45a56f386753db4270536fc0fb1f7ff3604b336c)
[](https://preview.redd.it/frmi-yolo-dd-v0-taad5rlmwfjh1.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=f0a8c0dbcf42977646e04bbc3f86903f4b9c748b)
[](https://preview.redd.it/frmi-yolo-dd-v0-z9of0t8nwfjh1.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=5e4ebf76f7b47a39837101db0163f023deb0ea87)
[](https://preview.redd.it/frmi-yolo-dd-v0-amh4izqnwfjh1.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=8078aab0a5c1d771348f55a2a2b887bf8d9f4b28)
https://preview.redd.it/y5phqf2yxfjh1.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=fafbb23172655cd0414a5254100b00772382aa5b
https://preview.redd.it/68mtsc2zxfjh1.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=83aa58571f1c2b4712be29beae28d3c44859a07e
https://preview.redd.it/bt8z6tnyxfjh1.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=fa26fe6007e51b47b32f4a888aaf7444ea6fb029
https://preview.redd.it/lgh8l6szxfjh1.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=931fe24cffb75cc806ede145f4899ff85445ac11
If a major AI company confirms as guarantor, or a second tenant gets announced, the math above puts fair value somewhere in the high $8s to low $9s using conservative assumptions on the currently known assets alone, before pricing in the 650MW expansion or additional tenants. That kind of headline would likely also close some of the discount that's been attached to this stock since the leadership fight, given how much of the recent skepticism has been about trust in management rather than the underlying assets. With that being said, any major news announced next week would easily have potential upwards momentum into double digits (expected swing of 50+%)
# Construction is actually happening
[Six Siemens SGT-800 gas turbines and their generators landed at the Port of Houston in February 2026](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/fermi-america-announces-arrival-of-6-siemens-energy-sgt-800-gas-turbines-at-port-of-houston-marking-major-milestone-in-natural-gas-power-timeline-302682327.html) — over 160 containers, seven vessels, a crane rated for 160 tons. [Three additional SGT6-5000F turbines](https://fermiamerica.com/first-siemens-turbines-arrive-for-project-matador/), rated up to 780 megawatts combined, landed at Houston in July and are headed to the Amarillo site, where site work is already underway with contractors Primoris and TSK. Fermi has drawn over $865 million in dedicated turbine financing to secure more equipment through 2028.
# The subpoena
After the close today, [Bloomberg reported](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-14/fermi-says-it-received-us-subpoena-related-to-project-matador) that Fermi disclosed it received a subpoena from a U.S. District Court for documents related to Project Matador, including documents tied to former members of the company's management team, with a similar request from the SEC. On a first read this looks bad. Here's why I'm not treating it that way.
The subpoena specifically targets former management, which lines up with the Neugebauer-era conflict rather than anything the current team has done since April. Adding to that read, Toby's father, Randy Neugebauer, who is trustee of the family trust and a former seven-term Congressman, [posted on X ](https://x.com/tobyrneugebauer/status/2088341180962558315?s=46)that he — not Toby, not Toby's wife — made the decision to sell some trust shares in the second quarter, and that Toby and his wife haven't sold a share since the IPO. Toby framed his father's decision as an independent fiduciary call based on his own read of who remains at the company. Taken together, this reads like legal cleanup from the previous leadership era landing at the same time the current team is trying to close a much larger deal, rather than a new problem with current management. I'd rather see this get investigated and resolved now than have it hang over the stock into next week
[](https://preview.redd.it/frmi-yolo-dd-v0-tvhe21xowfjh1.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=416eb38144f947d33dfaaf4873a3e9b920f39b89)
[Randy Neugebauer share sell off before June 30th, 2026](https://preview.redd.it/ysp1ruz0yfjh1.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=2fda5ef7761a31408fed0d06cc151295bc7600a9)
Worth noting that Toby’s dad would have sold these shares between **April 1 and June 30, 2026**. Before all the news we got this week, which means his beneficial ownership just dropped massively. This might imply his previous proxy fights are now out of the picture and Fermi can finally start decoupling from their ex CEO
# [The nuclear filing](https://public-inspection.federalregister.gov/2026-05487.pdf?utm_source=chatgpt.com)
Separate from the near-term catalysts, there's a Federal Register and Notice of Intent confirming a formal environmental review is underway for Fermi's license application covering four AP1000 nuclear reactors, intended to deliver 4 gigawatts of baseload power to the campus. Fermi filed its initial application back in June 2025 and has been in the review process since. This is a multi-year regulatory track, not something that moves the stock in the near term, but it confirms the nuclear portion of the 17GW plan is an active federal process rather than something that only exists in an investor presentation.
Price history
IPO on October 1, 2025 at $21. All-time high of $36.99 the next day. All-time low of $4.47 in early April during the leadership crisis. Currently trading around $6.42-6.60, with a market cap of roughly $4.2-4.6 billion.
That range tells the whole story of this stock — from pure hype, to a genuine crisis of confidence, to a real signed contract at a fraction of the original price. And it's playing out in the same week the two largest neoclouds in the market are telling everyone, on their own earnings calls, that they can't get enough contracted power.
# Conclusion
In my opinion, this is low risk high reward bet. Potential hyperscaler/neocloud news next week or AMD confirming to be the guarant once bonds settle on Monday, August 17th positions FRMI into solid double digits, with an upward swing of at least +50% in the following weeks. In case the announcement gets delayed, the stock will bottom in low 6s and high 5s which is less than 10% downside risk. On paper, adding the recent tenant deal and properties/equipment's Fermi owns averages to $8.65 share price against 650 million shares outstanding (not accounting for a dilution) which implies 25-30% undervaluation. For that reason, I am YOLOing my portfolio (+ some extra from webull) into FRMI Long shares. Comments are welcome

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