ADI
Analog Devices, Inc.
stock NASDAQ

Post covid a lot of companies were stockpiling mixed signal, communications, DSP, etc chips from companies like ADI and Texas Instruments out of fear that the shortage from the covid era could happen again. 
Once it was obvious another shortage wasn't coming, they stopped buying for years because they had a ton of inventory yet to be used. ADI per example lost 40% of its revenue in just a couple quarters, had to go into cost saving mode with hiring freezes and layoffs and it took 3 years for demand to start pick back up to that level again, with the stock trading flat for that duration.
The same could very well happen to memory if new players enter the market, oil goes down, etc and the FOMO that you need to stockpile right away dissipates a bit, only that memory cycle swings are way more drastic than those of the type of chips from this example.

Post covid a lot of companies were stockpiling mixed signal, communications, DSP, etc chips from companies like ADI and Texas Instruments out of fear that the shortage from the covid era could happen again. 
Once it was obvious another shortage wasn't coming, they stopped buying for years because they had a ton of inventory yet to be used. ADI per example lost 40% of its revenue in just a couple quarters, had to go into cost saving mode with hiring freezes and layoffs and it took 3 years for demand to start pick back up to that level again, with the stock trading flat for that duration.
The same could very well happen to memory if new players enter the market, oil goes down, etc and the FOMO that you need to stockpile right away dissipates a bit, only that memory cycle swings are way more drastic than those of the type of chips from this example.

Another batch of Substack company write-ups, all published within the last week.

Not my work - sourced from Giles Capital's weekly compilation: [https://gilescapital.substack.com](https://gilescapital.substack.com)
# Americas
**longtermpick** on [**NVIDIA**](https://longtermpick.com/p/nvidia-analysis-2026) (🇺🇸 NVDA US - US$5tn) P/E 20.8x against a five-year average of 37.7x, with consensus expecting 44% EPS growth. Gross margins at 74% are real. The AI capex cycle still runs through this company.
**alphaseeker84** on [**Microsoft and Meta**](https://alphaseeker84.substack.com/p/same-ai-bill-opposite-verdicts-metamsft) (🇺🇸 MSFT US, 🇺🇸 META US - US$3.1tn, US$1.7tn) Same AI bill, opposite verdicts. Microsoft: Azure up 43% but the stock fell 12% on capex guidance. Meta: cash flow collapsed 91% to $784 million, buybacks suspended, $24.9 billion in new debt.
**tacticzhazel** on [**Microsoft**](https://tacticzhazel.substack.com/p/quick-thoughts-on-microsoft-earnings) (🇺🇸 MSFT US - US$3.1tn) A second take on Microsoft, focused on the cash. Free cash flow is contracting once you strip out working capital, even as Azure grows 43%. The headline beats obscure the full picture.
**hatedmoats** on [**Netflix**](https://hatedmoats.substack.com/p/netflix-deep-dive-analysis) 🔒 (🇺🇸 NFLX US - US$287bn) Down 40% from peak, still at 22.9x P/E and 21.9x EV/EBIT, with 13% revenue growth as the bull case. Insider selling is the flag.
**rijnberkinvestinsights** on [**ServiceNow**](https://rijnberkinvestinsights.substack.com/p/servicenow-the-market-is-selling) (🇺🇸 NOW US - US$97bn) Selling off on AI substitution fears, but 98% customer retention and 16.5x free cash flow multiple argue for durability. The agentic AI orchestration angle reframes the risk. Still 66x P/E.
**SixSigmaResearch** on [**Bloom Energy**](https://sixsigmaresearch.com/p/bloom-energy-corp-earnings-update) (🇺🇸 BE US - US$61bn) Earnings update. Q2 revenue $1.1 billion, up 165% year on year. FY guidance $3.9-4.2 billion. Stock up 1,200% in twelve months at 185x P/E.
**thedutchinvestors** on [**Perimeter Solutions**](https://thedutchinvestors.substack.com/p/free-gift-premium-perimeter-solutions) (🇺🇸 PRM US - \~US$3bn) North American monopoly in aerial fire retardants, 57% gross margins. The catch: a 1.5% fixed plus 18% variable founder fee pulling $435 million annually from shareholders. GAAP unprofitable.
**valuedontlie** on [**Resideo Technologies**](https://www.valuedontlie.com/p/quick-value-324-resideo-adi-global) (🇺🇸 REZI US - \~US$2bn) Spinning off its ADI Global distribution arm, which some think unlocks $38-46 in combined value against a current $35 price. High leverage is the risk. The thesis is entirely event-driven.
**p14capital** on [**The RealReal**](https://p14capital.substack.com/p/real-the-realreal-inc) (🇺🇸 REAL US - \~US$1.5bn) Luxury resale marketplace, 2.3x EV/sales, 13% revenue growth, path to 13.5% EBITDA margins by 2028. Net debt minimal. Not cheap at 24x EV/EBITDA, but the execution thesis is clearly mapped.
**theoakbloke** on [**Helix Exploration**](https://theoakbloke.substack.com/p/grg-gy-soggy-underwater-shorter) (🇬🇧 HEX LN - US$105m) Niche helium producer on AIM, still pre-profit, extracting at 99.999% purity with demand growing 6% annually. Dilution risk acknowledged. Oak Bloke is rotating out of Greggs into this.
**wolfofoakville** on [**AirIQ**](https://www.wolfofoakville.com/p/airiq-inc-iqv-fins-review-e3a) (🇨🇦 IQ.V - CAD$\~15m) Author's verdict: bearish. 91% recurring revenue, 59.8% gross margins, debt-free. But P/E over 40x and 30-day average volume around 143,000 shares makes entry nearly impossible.
# Europe, Middle East & Africa
**thedutchinvestors** on [**LVMH**](https://thedutchinvestors.substack.com/p/lvmh-q2-2026-earnings-update) (🇫🇷 MC PA - \~€210bn) Earnings update. Q2 organic revenue up 3%, Wine and Spirits up 11%. Operating margins at 22.5% with €8.25 billion net cash. Arnault family controls 63%.
**theoakbloke** on [**Unite Group**](https://theoakbloke.substack.com/p/this-is-one-utg-ly-mutha) (🇬🇧 UTG LN - £2bn) Trades at a 36% discount to NAV, with the Renters' Rights Act squeezing competitor supply. High leverage is the catch: net debt at 7.5x EBITDA post the Empiric acquisition.
**smallvalue** on [**Semapa**](https://smallvalue.substack.com/p/semapa) 🔒 (🇵🇹 SEM LS - \~€2bn) TOP PICK Europe's lowest-cost paper producer, accessed through its 82%-family-owned parent at 11x P/E and 14% FCF yield. €780m net cash post-cement sale. Tissue growing 24% annually. Paywalled, but earns it.
**1trueinvesting** on [**Greggs**](https://1trueinvesting.substack.com/p/greggs-lon-grg-h1-2026-results) (🇬🇧 GRG LN - \~£700m) Volumes declining and lease costs rising, with 36.5x P/E making the upside hard to argue. One source exited. Another is still watching. Cautionary entry on a UK high-street name.
**ppinvest007** on [**U.C.A. Aktiengesellschaft**](https://ppinvest007.substack.com/p/uca-aktiengesellschaft-what-happens) (🇩🇪 UCA1 GR - €50m) Net cash of €45 million against a €50 million market value. Special dividend expected spring 2027. Near-zero daily volume on Frankfurt Exchange. Size positions accordingly.
# Asia-Pacific
**coughlincap** on [**Tencent Holdings**](https://coughlincap.com/p/what-is-the-price-of-being-chinese) (🇨🇳 0700 HK - US$530bn) TOP PICK 12-15x P/E for WeChat's billion-plus daily users, dominant gaming, payments, net cash, and a private investment portfolio the market barely prices. The China discount is the price of entry.
**angsanaanderson** on [**ENN Energy Holdings**](https://www.angsanaanderson.com/p/enn-energy-parent-offered-80-share) (🇨🇳 2688 HK - US$7bn) Chinese gas utility at 8x P/E and 7% dividend. Its parent is formally offering to buy out 80% of remaining shares, with regulatory approvals progressing. The buyout is the thesis.
**Japan Investing** on [**Human Made**](https://japaninvesting.substack.com/p/human-made-456ajp) (🇯🇵 456A JP - US$800m) Japanese streetwear brand at 42-50x P/E, with ¥5.9 billion net cash and 64% insider ownership. Author rates fair to rich. A potential UNDERCOVER brand acquisition adds speculative optionality.
**JPARCVUE** on [**REALGATE**](https://jparcvue.substack.com/p/realgate-5532-the-only-adaptive-reuse) (🇯🇵 5532 JP - US$153m) Japanese adaptive-reuse developer at 35.9x P/E, 31x EV/EBIT, and a debt ratio of 2.8x. Altman Z-score at 1.02 puts it in technical distress territory. A cautionary entry.

All I’m asking for is TXN and ADI to keep drilling