SOME Reddit Mentions | ChartExchange

I believe it is worthwhile making a point regarding this subreddit, as well as emphasize this post is not solely about Tilray (albeit the trade I am going to use in this example was made on Tilray); relax Foodcooker.
As evidenced real time on this subreddit, I sold all of my Tilray shares for 9.30CDN shortly after market opening on 1 Apr 2025. I suspected the gain was going to be short lived and was primarily associated with misleading headlines (the standard "Tilray's Record Breaking Quarter"). First lesson I learned in this sector...few read beyond the headlines. In actual fact, Tilray missed the analysts -.14 prediction (-.24). I fully expected there would be a correction once others began to dissect the numbers and Tilray would go negative later in the day.
I did the appropriate due diligence...read the Q Report and listened to the conference call. Later that day when I saw Tilray getting hit (-5%) I bought back a subset of the shares I sold earlier as I felt that it was overdone given the strength of BrewDog, Carlsberg, and physical assets. My buy price was 8.60CDN. I shared that buy in real time on this subreddit. Some (very capable) contributors questioned my buyback. What I most appreciated was the respectful dialogue that offered an opportunity to reconsider my actions. In fact, their comments weighed on my decision to make this a short term trade rather than a long term hold. I happen to agree that Tilray has not acted like a company deserving of shareholder loyalty.
Tilray's share price went lower that day, and even lower Thursday morning (I suspect that was across the board due to Trump's speech the night before). Then there was the Bondi firing...but oddly (in my mind anyway) the sector seemed to like that. Who knows anymore when it comes to this administration.
BTW, I also did a shakedown of all Tilray's physical assets such as its greenhouses in Ontario, Quebec, and BC as well as all of its distilleries and restaurants/pubs. I surmised that Tilray had reached a point where its breakup value is pretty close to its share price. I truly believe the share price is being suppressed as many do not like or trust Irwin Simon. Ironically, I do not believe he is the complete 'shyster' many make him out to be. That is not to say I completely trust the guy, and I do think he is overpaid, but I happen to think there are far worse CEOs in this sector. Irwin Simon is doing what he thinks is best for the company, common shareholders are cannon fodder (welcome to capitalism).
I am no longer a "long term bagholder" of Tilray, but do know enough about the company to have a feel for it and will trade on that knowledge.
A few months back geologic brought attention to Charlotte's Web. Geo is one of the best contributors to this subreddit. I was tempted to pull the trigger and buy shares, but did not have the time to perform my own due diligence so let it go...only to watch it climb 300% in the weeks after. In that spirit, I will share I am digging into Cresco and am considering purchasing more shares. They are getting some medicare licenses.
WRT Tilray, I just read the following analyst report:
"We are upgrading TLRY shares to Buy: 1) Core Canadian business is steady; 2) International inflecting; 3) CC Pharma has become an advantageous asset; 4) Beverage category improving; 5) Cost savings from Brew Dog are substantial; 6) Share issuance is slowing; and 7) Cost of capital advantages. TLRY shares are back at July 2025 levels (where mgmt. was buyers). Since then, the fundamental outlook has improved and the potential for regulatory change is greater. We upgrade TLRY from Neutral to Buy and maintain our $10 PT (\~12x EV/EBITDA vs. current \~8x)."
Jefferies has an even more ambitious 24USD prediction for Tilray.
Bottomline: Over the years this subreddit has degraded into more argument and political commentary than what it is supposed to be...a forum for weedstocks investors to share insights, perhaps even share their trades (as I did this week, at the risk of getting criticized) and the rationale behind those trades. We can and should RESPECTFULLY disagree if warranted and provide cogent rationale for/against a move. THERE ARE SOME VERY EXPERIENCED AND KNOWLEDGEABLE TRADERS ON THIS SUBREDDIT, BUTMANY HAVE DECIDED TO WAIT IN THE WINGS UNTIL THERE IS MORE VISIBILITY ON S3. I sincerely hope some who chose to opt out of sharing their thoughts decide it is time to jump back onto this subreddit. We should be focused more on mutual learning how best to trade this sector and not hammering each other and pushing solid contributors out.
As for me, I sold the shares I purchased at 8.60 on Thursday for 8.95 on Friday. I shared this in real time. I originally had a sell order in at 9, but seeing oil on the rise and rumors of Bondi's firing I TACO'ed out when I saw the initial crest of 8.97 and changed from 9 to 8.95. My lot was large enough to sway the Bid/Ask. It took about five minutes for me to sell (drifted down to 8.91 on lots of 100). Tilray eventually closed at 9.15, but I slept very well last night and look forward to an Easter weekend where I am not wondering what's going to happen this coming Tuesday. I see Trump is taking out bridges and other infrastructure and Hegseth just fired the Chief of the Army.
Specific to this sector, I surmise there is an opportunity for a "Trump friendly" question to the incoming DOJ: "What is the status of the President's Executive Order directing the expeditious rescheduling of cannabis?"
But I also appreciate there is a lot going on (Iran, Epstein, TSA, ICE).
I really do not believe S3 is going to drag on to the mid terms. My view (just an educated guess) is this administration is going to look for a few quick wins to justify the ousting of Bondi and to strengthen the narrative she was not getting the job done. Epstein and birthright citizenship are the main issues, but S3 is low hanging fruit for a quick win.

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