LUNA
LUNA INNOVATIONS INC
stock OTC

Three weeks ago, in a somewhat playful post, [Henrik Brings Hope, By Analogy](https://old.reddit.com/r/MVIS/comments/1tzwosz/henrik_brings_hope_by_analogy/), I noted that an analysis by renowned Elliott Wave theorist, Henrik Zeberg, made predictions about potential explosive reversals in certain crypto names.
What struck me then was that the reasons for his predictions, based only on chart formations, as one would expect of an Elliott Wave theorist, seemed, by analogy, applicable to Microvision, given that the MVIS chart over the same period shared many, if not most, of the features Zeberg identified for crypto, most notably Bitcoin.
Now, obviously, there were two major *caveats* and one minor one. First, I'm no technical analyst or chartist of any stripe; anything that catches my eye is not to be taken seriously unless repeated by someone who knows what they're talking about. Second, even if what I was seeing did line up with Zeberg's analysis, that still did not mean Zeberg was correct. Lastly, I predicted that, even if Zeberg shared my view, we would never hear it from his lips, given that Microvision has made a fool of him more than once before.
Well, today, two of those *caveats* ceased to be operative, as they say. Earlier this evening, Zeberg published the following post:
[Portfolio Update June 28th: From Index Leadership to Rotation: The Nasdaq Rally, a Falling DXY, and the Final Crypto Leg Before the Top](https://substack.com/home/post/p-204011663).
The piece is guarded by a paywall, and I'm not a paid subscriber. But the opening tease is reproduced below, and includes a very interesting line, which I highlight in **boldface**.
I invite any subscribers to Zeberg's Substack to report back here on the details Henrik offers to support his case.
>This portfolio is constructed top-down, from the Business Cycle and the broader Macro Outlook rather than from individual stock narratives. The current read is a familiar late-cycle divergence: the real economy is stalling, yet equity markets continue to push higher. That gap rarely resolves quietly. It typically resolves through rotation - capital moving out of the broad index and into the assets that lead the final, most reflexive leg of the cycle.
>The positioning reflects that thesis directly. We are in the ETH-Phase, and the central expectation is that ETH outperforms both BTC and the broad equity market into the closing stage of this advance, with the ETH Bull extending toward the ~13K target. The Digital Asset Treasury equities — BMNR, Galaxy Digital, SBET, BTBT, ORBS — are the expression of that view in leveraged form: each is a geared play on ETH appreciation rather than a standalone equity bet. The concentration in SBET and Galaxy Digital makes the portfolio a high-conviction expression of the ETH thesis rather than a diversified book. UPXI provides Solana-side exposure on the expectation that SOL rallies in sequence, Marathon captures the BTC-miner beta that moves with the alt complex, and **Microvision and Monday sit on top of explosive technical setups**. On the crypto side, WIF reflects the standard cycle logic that memes move last, with LUNA held as a small speculative tail.
>The drawdown across the DAT names since June 20th is precisely the kind of pre-ignition shakeout the late-cycle structure tends to produce - the leveraged ETH expressions have given back ground while the underlying thesis remains intact. Marathon and Monday have moved against the grain, the former on BTC-miner beta and the latter on its technical setup, but the core book is built for the move ahead, not the chop preceding it.
>This is, by design, a high-risk portfolio. The concentration and the leverage embedded in the DAT names mean it is built to capture the upside of the Macro Outlook being correct - not to weather it being early or wrong. I remain confident in that outlook and expect the decisive move to arrive in Q3 of 2026.
>The discipline from here is timing, not conviction. As the rallies begin to develop, vigilance becomes the priority. I do not expect a top that lingers - late-cycle blow-offs in leveraged, reflexive assets tend to be sharp and short-lived. That makes execution within a 3–5 day window the critical variable. The thesis defines the position; the exit will define the result.

Three weeks ago, in a somewhat playful post, [Henrik Brings Hope, By Analogy](https://old.reddit.com/r/MVIS/comments/1tzwosz/henrik_brings_hope_by_analogy/), I noted that an analysis by renowned Elliott Wave theorist, Henrik Zeberg, made predictions about potential explosive reversals in certain crypto names.
What struck me then was that the reasons for his predictions, based only on chart formations, as one would expect of an Elliott Wave theorist, seemed, by analogy, applicable to Microvision, given that the MVIS chart over the same period shared many, if not most, of the features Zeberg identified for crypto, most notably Bitcoin.
Now, obviously, there were two major *caveats* and one minor one. First, I'm no technical analyst or chartist of any stripe; anything that catches my eye is not to be taken seriously unless repeated by someone who knows what they're talking about. Second, even if what I was seeing did line up with Zeberg's analysis, that still did not mean Zeberg was correct. Lastly, I predicted that, even if Zeberg shared my view, we would never hear it from his lips, given that Microvision has made a fool of him more than once before.
Well, today, two of those *caveats* ceased to be operative, as they say. Earlier this evening, Zeberg published the following post:
[Portfolio Update June 28th: From Index Leadership to Rotation: The Nasdaq Rally, a Falling DXY, and the Final Crypto Leg Before the Top](https://substack.com/home/post/p-204011663).
The piece is guarded by a paywall, and I'm not a paid subscriber. But the opening tease is reproduced below, and includes a very interesting line, which I highlight in **boldface**.
I invite any subscribers to Zeberg's Substack to report back here on the details Henrik offers to support his case.
>This portfolio is constructed top-down, from the Business Cycle and the broader Macro Outlook rather than from individual stock narratives. The current read is a familiar late-cycle divergence: the real economy is stalling, yet equity markets continue to push higher. That gap rarely resolves quietly. It typically resolves through rotation - capital moving out of the broad index and into the assets that lead the final, most reflexive leg of the cycle.
>The positioning reflects that thesis directly. We are in the ETH-Phase, and the central expectation is that ETH outperforms both BTC and the broad equity market into the closing stage of this advance, with the ETH Bull extending toward the ~13K target. The Digital Asset Treasury equities — BMNR, Galaxy Digital, SBET, BTBT, ORBS — are the expression of that view in leveraged form: each is a geared play on ETH appreciation rather than a standalone equity bet. The concentration in SBET and Galaxy Digital makes the portfolio a high-conviction expression of the ETH thesis rather than a diversified book. UPXI provides Solana-side exposure on the expectation that SOL rallies in sequence, Marathon captures the BTC-miner beta that moves with the alt complex, and **Microvision and Monday sit on top of explosive technical setups**. On the crypto side, WIF reflects the standard cycle logic that memes move last, with LUNA held as a small speculative tail.
>The drawdown across the DAT names since June 20th is precisely the kind of pre-ignition shakeout the late-cycle structure tends to produce - the leveraged ETH expressions have given back ground while the underlying thesis remains intact. Marathon and Monday have moved against the grain, the former on BTC-miner beta and the latter on its technical setup, but the core book is built for the move ahead, not the chop preceding it.
>This is, by design, a high-risk portfolio. The concentration and the leverage embedded in the DAT names mean it is built to capture the upside of the Macro Outlook being correct - not to weather it being early or wrong. I remain confident in that outlook and expect the decisive move to arrive in Q3 of 2026.
>The discipline from here is timing, not conviction. As the rallies begin to develop, vigilance becomes the priority. I do not expect a top that lingers - late-cycle blow-offs in leveraged, reflexive assets tend to be sharp and short-lived. That makes execution within a 3–5 day window the critical variable. The thesis defines the position; the exit will define the result.