ASMIY
ASM INTL NV NY REG SHS
stock OTC ADR

* NXT - Their solar products are crazy overpriced with an industry leading 30% gross margin (absurd). China has them in their cross hairs and will under cut them badly. The 45x tax credit could get nerfed which would be bad for NXT.
* FSLR - Much of the same issues. They are much more vulnerable to 45 tax credit changes than NXT though.
* ARRY - Maybe the most risky of your three solar stocks. Debt is a major concern and short interest is high at 25%.
* KBGGY - Don't know much about them...but they appear to be an ADR for a Norwegian defense company. Poor spreads, currency risk, and a major planned divestiture could be problematic.
* AMZN - I'm bullish and an investor.
* HMDPF - Maybe a bit vulnerable if the data center bubble bursts, but an intriguing company.
* NVO - Side effects are a big concern as is competition which is lower priced and more effective. Patent cliffs, future regulation changes, and most favored nation drug pricing are big threats.
* FINMY - Interest coverage ratio of just 1.7 is bad. Cargo ship demand is way down due to Chinese oversupply and cruises are not dependable clients. China just launched their first major cruise ships and they will produce more in the future. This ADR also has poor liquidity/spreads.
* SAAB - Very expensive PE ratio. They have a complicated backlog that won't be easy/quick to fulfill.
* ASMIY - Like the company but a forward PE of 39 is pricey for a company that could get hit hard when the AI bubble pops.
* GTT - Interesting stock I'll have to do more research. I do think gas prices collapse in a few years due to excess supply though.
* MDALF - EchoStar was cancelled which was about a third of future earnings. They're down to Globalstar and Telesat Lightspeed....and Globalstar is facing delays. Execution risk is high with this company.
* V - I held this company for 17 years before selling this year. I wrote an essay on why it is overvalued at - [https://www.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/comments/1p0tk5q/7\_reasons\_why\_visa\_is\_not\_a\_value\_investment/](https://www.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/comments/1p0tk5q/7_reasons_why_visa_is_not_a_value_investment/) Basically there are new fintech technologies and court cases that will manifest in the next few years that will totally disrupt how Visa (and Mastercard) do business.
* AMP - AI will make a lot of financial planning companies obsolete. Also the funds offered by AMP tend to have fees that are too high.
* SAFRY - Very expensive stock. Explosive growth is expected...but that may be difficult with their complicated supply chain and assembly process.
* THNPY - Intriguing company...but it is French so you have to expect some dysfunction.
* MTUAY - Don't know much about them. Supposedly they're having difficulty completing their backlogs...which are very complicated.
* FLNC - Runway cash is running out and dilution could be a risk. Their batteries may have some fire risk.

Hey y'all
I've posted here before about the companies I'm looking to allocate to during 2026. I am extremely skeptical that the AI trade continues its run into 2026. I believe it will begin to correct.
The buildout of AI infrastructure has led to a significant decrease in inference costs, which have fallen approximately 200-fold over the past year. This trend, coupled with the proliferation of high-performance open-source models, is transitioning frontier AI models toward a commodity-like market with compressed profit margins.
While hyperscaler capital expenditure is projected to exceed $500 billion in 2026, industry analysis suggests a requirement of approximately $2 trillion in new annual revenue to justify this investment—a figure currently unsupported by enterprise software adoption rates.
Additionally, a huge portion of current AI earnings is characterized by investment circularity, where cloud providers fund the same startups that purchase their compute services. These structural challenges are all exacerbated by regional power grid constraints.
All that makes me a little uneasy of the immense concentration of related stocks in most index funds.
That being said I've constructed my own index-esque portfolio that focuses on secular tailwinds, international diversification, and limited AI exposure. The tailwinds are **International Grid Hardening**, **European Defense Spending**, and **The Commercialization of Low Earth Orbit** (plus some picks unrelated to the three). Some of these picks are AI related insofar as it relates to the impact on electrification and the grid.
I have chosen 23 companies based on four different criteria:
1. **Low Debt & High Free Cash Flow**
2. **High Revenue Visibility from a Sticky Backlog**
3. **Consistent Earnings Beats as a Proxy for Effective Management**
4. **Likely Beneficiary from Macro Economic Trends**
Not all equities below meet all of this criteria. Some carry more debt than I would prefer. Some trade at a higher premium than I would like. Some are just speculative growth plays. But, for the most part, I tried to pick equities that met most of the criteria above.
Anyway here are my picks with my allocation percentages:
---
## 1. Nextracker Inc. (NXT) – 7%
Primary provider of control technology for utility-scale solar. $845M cash, zero debt. $622M FCF (47% YoY growth). $5B+ backlog through 2026. 100% domestic content qualifies for IRA tax credits. Q2 FY26 revenue $905M (42% YoY), adjusted EBITDA margins 24.7%. TrueCapture software has 100% contribution margins.
## 2. Kongsberg Gruppen (KBGGY) – 6%
NOK 15.76B net cash. NOK 142.25B backlog (2+ years revenue). Q3 2025: 12% revenue growth, 15.2% EBIT margins. EV/EBITDA 23.5x, EBITDA growth 17%. Book-to-bill >1.0. NASAMS air defense systems benefiting from European modernization. Maritime unit spin-off planned 2026.
## 3. First Solar (FSLR) – 5%
$1.5B net cash, $2.0B gross cash. Sold out through 2026. 53.7 GW contracted backlog worth $16.4B. Forward P/E 18.5x with 61% expected EPS growth to ~$23.53. Proprietary thin-film technology independent of Chinese polysilicon. Section 45X tax credits.
## 4. Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) – 5%
$38B+ FCF (2024). Forward P/E expected to compress from ~32x to ~23x. AWS dominant in cloud. Competitive advantage in physical logistics network. Three revenue pillars: e-commerce, cloud/AI, digital advertising.
## 5. Hammond Power Solutions (HMDPF) – 4%
0.27 Debt/Equity ratio, 40x interest coverage, 26.2% ROE. Forward P/E ~19.6x with 13.7% sales growth (Q3). Backlog up 22.4% YoY (Q3 2025), 27.7% YTD. Dominates transformer market for data centers and AI infrastructure. Custom transformer orders command higher margins.
## 6. Novo Nordisk (NVO) – 4%
$21.4B EBITDA (2024, up 31%). Forward P/E ~14.4x for 2025/2026. Massive net cash position. Dominant in GLP-1 (obesity/diabetes) market, functional duopoly with Eli Lilly. Production capacity is only constraint, not demand.
## 7. Leonardo SpA (FINMY) – 4%
€2.3B Group Net Debt (down 25.9% YoY). €47.3B order backlog, 1.4x book-to-bill. Targets 10% profit margins on €19.6B revenue. EV/EBITDA ~15.1x with 28% net result growth. Participation in Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP).
## 8. Saab AB (SAAB) – 3%
SEK 187B backlog. Q4: 29% organic sales growth, 13.1% EBITDA margins, 38% EBIT increase. Sweden's NATO accession expands market for Gripen fighter and NLAW systems.
## 9. ASM International (ASMIY) – 3%
€1.27B net cash, €532M FCF. Q1 2025: 26% revenue growth (constant currency), €834M new orders (up 14%). Dominates Atomic Layer Deposition (ALD), indispensable for 2nm chips.
## 10. Gaztransport & Technigaz (GTT) – 4%
Net margins >50%. P/E ~20x. Q1 2025 revenue up 32%. 95%+ market share in membrane containment for LNG carriers. 306 LNG carrier units in order book. Net cash position enabling generous dividends.
## 11. MDA Space (MDALF) – 4%
$4.4B backlog. 0.3x Net Debt/EBITDA. Q3: 49% EBITDA growth, 45% revenue growth YoY, $32.8M operating cash flow. Dominates space robotics, LEO satellite constellations.
## 12. Visa (V) – 4%
Net margins >50%. Revenue up 11%, cross-border volume up 13%. Premium multiple justified by consistency. Enormous FCF generation for systematic buybacks.
## 13. Amphenol (AMP) – 3%
$1.1B FCF (Q2 2025). Q2 2025 sales up 57%. Record backlog levels. Decentralized structure, high switching costs for mission-critical connectors. Exposure to defense, automotive (EVs), AI data centers.
## 14. Safran (SAFRY) – 3%
€1.87B net cash. EV/EBITDA ~20.9x. CFM International JV produces LEAP engine (exclusive for 737 MAX, majority for A320neo). High-margin aftermarket services model generates 25+ years revenue per engine sold.
## 15. Technip Energies (THNPY) – 3%
€16.8B backlog (2.4 years revenue). Revenue up 16% in first 9 months 2025. Balances LNG projects with carbon capture and hydrogen. Cash-generative, well-capitalized.
## 16. Array Technologies (ARRY) – 3%
$1.9B backlog. ~26.9% gross margins. Forward P/E ~14x (significant discount to Nextracker). APA Solar acquisition enables rocky terrain competition.
## 17. MTU Aero Engines (MTUAY) – 3%
€25B backlog. Adjusted operating profit up 34% to €995M (9M 2025). €150M FCF (Q1). Adjusted revenue forecast €8.3-8.5B (2025). Stakes in Pratt & Whitney GTF, GE90, GEnx programs.
## 18. Fluence Energy (FLNC) – 2%
$5.3B backlog covering 85% of 2026 revenue. Revenue projected ~$3.4B (2026 midpoint). Adjusted EBITDA guidance $40-60M (FY2026). Record liquidity $1.3B. "Mosaic" bidding software, ARR expected $180M.
## 19. BAE Systems (BAESY) – 2%
£27B+ orders in single year driving record backlog. Stable cash generator for consistent dividends/buybacks. Incumbent on F-35, Eurofighter Typhoon, Dreadnought-class nuclear submarines. AUKUS pact provides generational tailwind.
## 20. Kraken Robotics (KRKNF) – 2%
56% gross margin, $4.7M Adjusted EBITDA (Q2 2025). Revenue up 16% YoY. Synthetic aperture sonar (SAS) technology. Shifting to "Robotics as a Service" (RaaS) recurring revenue model.
## 21. Dassault Aviation (DUAVF) – 2%
More cash than debt. EV/EBITDA fluctuates around 12.6x. Rafale fighter jet exports (Egypt, India, Indonesia, UAE). Falcon business jet segment provides diversification.
## 22. Firan Technology Group (FTGFF) – 2%
$9.5M net debt (0.3x trailing EBITDA). $137.1M backlog (up 12%). Revenue up 10.8%, book-to-bill 1.08. Aerospace circuit boards and cockpit products with high certification barriers.
## 23. Airbus (EADSY) – 2%
8,665 aircraft backlog. Net cash position but negative FCF €-0.9B (9M 2025) due to working capital builds. EV/EBITDA ~17.9x. Underweight due to supply chain bottlenecks impacting delivery conversion.
## Cash – 19%

* NXT - Their solar products are crazy overpriced with an industry leading 30% gross margin (absurd). China has them in their cross hairs and will under cut them badly. The 45x tax credit could get nerfed which would be bad for NXT.
* FSLR - Much of the same issues. They are much more vulnerable to 45 tax credit changes than NXT though.
* ARRY - Maybe the most risky of your three solar stocks. Debt is a major concern and short interest is high at 25%.
* KBGGY - Don't know much about them...but they appear to be an ADR for a Norwegian defense company. Poor spreads, currency risk, and a major planned divestiture could be problematic.
* AMZN - I'm bullish and an investor.
* HMDPF - Maybe a bit vulnerable if the data center bubble bursts, but an intriguing company.
* NVO - Side effects are a big concern as is competition which is lower priced and more effective. Patent cliffs, future regulation changes, and most favored nation drug pricing are big threats.
* FINMY - Interest coverage ratio of just 1.7 is bad. Cargo ship demand is way down due to Chinese oversupply and cruises are not dependable clients. China just launched their first major cruise ships and they will produce more in the future. This ADR also has poor liquidity/spreads.
* SAAB - Very expensive PE ratio. They have a complicated backlog that won't be easy/quick to fulfill.
* ASMIY - Like the company but a forward PE of 39 is pricey for a company that could get hit hard when the AI bubble pops.
* GTT - Interesting stock I'll have to do more research. I do think gas prices collapse in a few years due to excess supply though.
* MDALF - EchoStar was cancelled which was about a third of future earnings. They're down to Globalstar and Telesat Lightspeed....and Globalstar is facing delays. Execution risk is high with this company.
* V - I held this company for 17 years before selling this year. I wrote an essay on why it is overvalued at - [https://www.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/comments/1p0tk5q/7\_reasons\_why\_visa\_is\_not\_a\_value\_investment/](https://www.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/comments/1p0tk5q/7_reasons_why_visa_is_not_a_value_investment/) Basically there are new fintech technologies and court cases that will manifest in the next few years that will totally disrupt how Visa (and Mastercard) do business.
* AMP - AI will make a lot of financial planning companies obsolete. Also the funds offered by AMP tend to have fees that are too high.
* SAFRY - Very expensive stock. Explosive growth is expected...but that may be difficult with their complicated supply chain and assembly process.
* THNPY - Intriguing company...but it is French so you have to expect some dysfunction.
* MTUAY - Don't know much about them. Supposedly they're having difficulty completing their backlogs...which are very complicated.
* FLNC - Runway cash is running out and dilution could be a risk. Their batteries may have some fire risk.

Hey y'all
I've posted here before about the companies I'm looking to allocate to during 2026. I am extremely skeptical that the AI trade continues its run into 2026. I believe it will begin to correct.
The buildout of AI infrastructure has led to a significant decrease in inference costs, which have fallen approximately 200-fold over the past year. This trend, coupled with the proliferation of high-performance open-source models, is transitioning frontier AI models toward a commodity-like market with compressed profit margins.
While hyperscaler capital expenditure is projected to exceed $500 billion in 2026, industry analysis suggests a requirement of approximately $2 trillion in new annual revenue to justify this investment—a figure currently unsupported by enterprise software adoption rates.
Additionally, a huge portion of current AI earnings is characterized by investment circularity, where cloud providers fund the same startups that purchase their compute services. These structural challenges are all exacerbated by regional power grid constraints.
All that makes me a little uneasy of the immense concentration of related stocks in most index funds.
That being said I've constructed my own index-esque portfolio that focuses on secular tailwinds, international diversification, and limited AI exposure. The tailwinds are **International Grid Hardening**, **European Defense Spending**, and **The Commercialization of Low Earth Orbit** (plus some picks unrelated to the three). Some of these picks are AI related insofar as it relates to the impact on electrification and the grid.
I have chosen 23 companies based on four different criteria:
1. **Low Debt & High Free Cash Flow**
2. **High Revenue Visibility from a Sticky Backlog**
3. **Consistent Earnings Beats as a Proxy for Effective Management**
4. **Likely Beneficiary from Macro Economic Trends**
Not all equities below meet all of this criteria. Some carry more debt than I would prefer. Some trade at a higher premium than I would like. Some are just speculative growth plays. But, for the most part, I tried to pick equities that met most of the criteria above.
Anyway here are my picks with my allocation percentages:
---
## 1. Nextracker Inc. (NXT) – 7%
Primary provider of control technology for utility-scale solar. $845M cash, zero debt. $622M FCF (47% YoY growth). $5B+ backlog through 2026. 100% domestic content qualifies for IRA tax credits. Q2 FY26 revenue $905M (42% YoY), adjusted EBITDA margins 24.7%. TrueCapture software has 100% contribution margins.
## 2. Kongsberg Gruppen (KBGGY) – 6%
NOK 15.76B net cash. NOK 142.25B backlog (2+ years revenue). Q3 2025: 12% revenue growth, 15.2% EBIT margins. EV/EBITDA 23.5x, EBITDA growth 17%. Book-to-bill >1.0. NASAMS air defense systems benefiting from European modernization. Maritime unit spin-off planned 2026.
## 3. First Solar (FSLR) – 5%
$1.5B net cash, $2.0B gross cash. Sold out through 2026. 53.7 GW contracted backlog worth $16.4B. Forward P/E 18.5x with 61% expected EPS growth to ~$23.53. Proprietary thin-film technology independent of Chinese polysilicon. Section 45X tax credits.
## 4. Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) – 5%
$38B+ FCF (2024). Forward P/E expected to compress from ~32x to ~23x. AWS dominant in cloud. Competitive advantage in physical logistics network. Three revenue pillars: e-commerce, cloud/AI, digital advertising.
## 5. Hammond Power Solutions (HMDPF) – 4%
0.27 Debt/Equity ratio, 40x interest coverage, 26.2% ROE. Forward P/E ~19.6x with 13.7% sales growth (Q3). Backlog up 22.4% YoY (Q3 2025), 27.7% YTD. Dominates transformer market for data centers and AI infrastructure. Custom transformer orders command higher margins.
## 6. Novo Nordisk (NVO) – 4%
$21.4B EBITDA (2024, up 31%). Forward P/E ~14.4x for 2025/2026. Massive net cash position. Dominant in GLP-1 (obesity/diabetes) market, functional duopoly with Eli Lilly. Production capacity is only constraint, not demand.
## 7. Leonardo SpA (FINMY) – 4%
€2.3B Group Net Debt (down 25.9% YoY). €47.3B order backlog, 1.4x book-to-bill. Targets 10% profit margins on €19.6B revenue. EV/EBITDA ~15.1x with 28% net result growth. Participation in Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP).
## 8. Saab AB (SAAB) – 3%
SEK 187B backlog. Q4: 29% organic sales growth, 13.1% EBITDA margins, 38% EBIT increase. Sweden's NATO accession expands market for Gripen fighter and NLAW systems.
## 9. ASM International (ASMIY) – 3%
€1.27B net cash, €532M FCF. Q1 2025: 26% revenue growth (constant currency), €834M new orders (up 14%). Dominates Atomic Layer Deposition (ALD), indispensable for 2nm chips.
## 10. Gaztransport & Technigaz (GTT) – 4%
Net margins >50%. P/E ~20x. Q1 2025 revenue up 32%. 95%+ market share in membrane containment for LNG carriers. 306 LNG carrier units in order book. Net cash position enabling generous dividends.
## 11. MDA Space (MDALF) – 4%
$4.4B backlog. 0.3x Net Debt/EBITDA. Q3: 49% EBITDA growth, 45% revenue growth YoY, $32.8M operating cash flow. Dominates space robotics, LEO satellite constellations.
## 12. Visa (V) – 4%
Net margins >50%. Revenue up 11%, cross-border volume up 13%. Premium multiple justified by consistency. Enormous FCF generation for systematic buybacks.
## 13. Amphenol (AMP) – 3%
$1.1B FCF (Q2 2025). Q2 2025 sales up 57%. Record backlog levels. Decentralized structure, high switching costs for mission-critical connectors. Exposure to defense, automotive (EVs), AI data centers.
## 14. Safran (SAFRY) – 3%
€1.87B net cash. EV/EBITDA ~20.9x. CFM International JV produces LEAP engine (exclusive for 737 MAX, majority for A320neo). High-margin aftermarket services model generates 25+ years revenue per engine sold.
## 15. Technip Energies (THNPY) – 3%
€16.8B backlog (2.4 years revenue). Revenue up 16% in first 9 months 2025. Balances LNG projects with carbon capture and hydrogen. Cash-generative, well-capitalized.
## 16. Array Technologies (ARRY) – 3%
$1.9B backlog. ~26.9% gross margins. Forward P/E ~14x (significant discount to Nextracker). APA Solar acquisition enables rocky terrain competition.
## 17. MTU Aero Engines (MTUAY) – 3%
€25B backlog. Adjusted operating profit up 34% to €995M (9M 2025). €150M FCF (Q1). Adjusted revenue forecast €8.3-8.5B (2025). Stakes in Pratt & Whitney GTF, GE90, GEnx programs.
## 18. Fluence Energy (FLNC) – 2%
$5.3B backlog covering 85% of 2026 revenue. Revenue projected ~$3.4B (2026 midpoint). Adjusted EBITDA guidance $40-60M (FY2026). Record liquidity $1.3B. "Mosaic" bidding software, ARR expected $180M.
## 19. BAE Systems (BAESY) – 2%
£27B+ orders in single year driving record backlog. Stable cash generator for consistent dividends/buybacks. Incumbent on F-35, Eurofighter Typhoon, Dreadnought-class nuclear submarines. AUKUS pact provides generational tailwind.
## 20. Kraken Robotics (KRKNF) – 2%
56% gross margin, $4.7M Adjusted EBITDA (Q2 2025). Revenue up 16% YoY. Synthetic aperture sonar (SAS) technology. Shifting to "Robotics as a Service" (RaaS) recurring revenue model.
## 21. Dassault Aviation (DUAVF) – 2%
More cash than debt. EV/EBITDA fluctuates around 12.6x. Rafale fighter jet exports (Egypt, India, Indonesia, UAE). Falcon business jet segment provides diversification.
## 22. Firan Technology Group (FTGFF) – 2%
$9.5M net debt (0.3x trailing EBITDA). $137.1M backlog (up 12%). Revenue up 10.8%, book-to-bill 1.08. Aerospace circuit boards and cockpit products with high certification barriers.
## 23. Airbus (EADSY) – 2%
8,665 aircraft backlog. Net cash position but negative FCF €-0.9B (9M 2025) due to working capital builds. EV/EBITDA ~17.9x. Underweight due to supply chain bottlenecks impacting delivery conversion.
## Cash – 19%