PMI
Picard Medical, Inc.
stock NYSEAMERICAN

We bought it at 3.875% in 2018, and refinanced in 2020 at 2.875%. The PMI went away as well at that time. Payment went down about $400 -$450 a month. We are never selling this house.

Are you paying PMI on the house? That would be an easy deciding factor here.

ISM Manufacturing PMI data came out

careful manufaturing PMI number at 10 am

PMI TMI

It's only choppy because 10am PMI data isn't released yet... context my friend.

ISM Manufacturing PMI in 23 minutes will make spy pump to 1%

GST Collections are up and are making record highs, Manufacturing PMI this month again started to tick up, wdym there's no growth??

I’d stay a bit more liquid in your scenario. If you can get about 20% equity to avoid PMI. The early years of the mortgage are mostly interest.
IMO get to at least 20% equity then invest.

Morning everyone!
Economic report(s) scheduled for the day is(are) | at^[i](https://fidelityfiplus.econoday.com/byweek): Challenger Job-Cut Report | 5:30am, Jobless Claims | 8:30, Federal Reserve Perspectives | 9:05, PMI Manufacturing Final | 9:45, ISM Manufacturing Index | 10, Construction Spending | 10, EIA Natural Gas Report | 10:30, Fed Balance Sheet | 4:30pm; Fed speakers are | at: Waller | 10am, Jefferson | 1:30pm, Bowman | 3, Willams and Cook | 3:30, Logan | 6:45. Media platforms are discussing: Micron’s earnings, Apple’s Siri AI and connected products, Employment conditions, AI safety debate review, China suspends fuel exports, Oil rises. The rest of the discussions were largely individual specific or more on AI funding that has been covered thoroughly and bears only updates to ever increasing numbers. Premarket futures were mostly up this morning, though the Dow was flat to down very slightly and the Russell 2k was only very slightly up, S&P and Nasdaq were up modestly; VIX futures were down slightly.
MVIS ended the last trading session at 1.50, on much lower volume traded compared to the average over the past month. Stock price action saw the Short related volumes by percentage of the total _reported_ volumes come in below the average of the last 30 days. All the questions of investors have spurred the company to provide and update outside of the usual Quarterly scheduled reports, though it largely may be in to have the new executives engage with the investor base. There is always a chance that there is something more, but until clearly shown that it is a strong positive, the prudent investor is likely being quite skeptical and merely assuming it is some efforts to assuage the uncertainties. Talk is easy, relatively inexpensive, and experiences shows it should be done often and with repetition when establishing a narrative, though any and all of this is supported by the numbers on the books. Without the latter, all the talk in the world is not going to pay the staff or fund development programs.
## Daily Data
***
|H: 1.57 — L: 1.45 — C: 1.50 ^[i](https://chartexchange.com/symbol/nasdaq-mvis/historical/) |[Calendar](https://fidelityfiplus.econoday.com/byweek.asp)|
|:- |:-|
|**Pivots ↗︎ : 1.57, 1.63, 1.69** ^([i](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pivotpoint.asp)) |**Pivots ↘︎ : 1.44, 1.38, 1.32**|
|Total Options Vol: 635 ^([i](https://researchtools.fidelity.com/ftgw/mloptions/goto/underlyingStatistics?cusip=&symbol=MVIS&Search=Search)) |Avg 90d Options: 743|
|Calls: 478 ~ 76% at Market ⊟ |Puts: 157 ~ 66% at Bid or ↘︎|
|Open Exchanges: 405k ~ 50% ^[i](https://chartexchange.com/symbol/nasdaq-mvis/exchange-volume/) |Off Exchanges: 402k ~ 50% ^[i](https://chartexchange.com/symbol/nasdaq-mvis/exchange-volume/)|
|IBKR: 25k Rate: 14.92%^[i](https://chartexchange.com/symbol/nasdaq-mvis/borrow-fee/) |Fidelity: 0k Rate: 8.00%
|**R Vol: 46% of Avg Vol: 1,745k** ^([i](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/averagedailytradingvolume.asp)) |**Short Vol: 256k of 456k ~ 56%** ^[i](https://chartexchange.com/symbol/nasdaq-mvis/short-volume/?tblshortvolix=0)|

^(Follow links for sources. Bold text represents key points or larger data, Italics are slightly unusual or lower than normal.)

\# 📊 Market Brief — Wed September 30, 2026
\*Data pulled Wed Sep 30, 2026 8:35 AM ET\*
\*\*TL;DR:\*\* The 8:30 data hit a flat tape and yields moved lower. August PCE: headline \*\*+0.3% MoM / 3.4% YoY\*\*, core \*\*+0.2% / 3.0%\*\*. Q2 GDP was revised \*\*up to 2.2%\*\* (from 1.5%), and ADP showed \*\*+90k\*\* private jobs, a better-than-expected rebound. Hike odds for October had already dropped to roughly a coin flip after Williams said there was "no need for urgency." Micron reports tonight, the jobs report is Friday, and both SPY and QQQ sit just under their gamma flips.
\## 📰 Last 24h — what happened & why
\- \*\*PCE was hot enough to matter but not alarming.\*\* Core rose \*\*+0.2%\*\* on the month, and the annual rate is \*\*3.0%\*\* after BEA's annual revisions. Spending jumped \*\*+0.9%\*\* nominal (real \*\*+0.6%\*\*) against income of only +0.2%, so consumers are spending faster than they earn.
\- \*\*Growth is firmer than it looked:\*\* Q2 GDP went to \*\*2.2%\*\* from 1.5%, lifted by investment, consumer spending and government outlays. ADP's \*\*+90k\*\* was the first hiring pickup since May, led by education/health.
\- \*\*The Fed backed away from October.\*\* NY Fed's Williams said Tuesday there is "no need for urgency" to hike again after September. October hike odds fell from \~70% Monday to roughly 50/50. He still sees one more hike "late this year."
\- \*\*Oil is rising again,\*\* up \*\*1.1% to $90.37\*\* after falling 2.5% Tuesday on signs Middle East exports are recovering. Iran received the US response to its latest proposal, but talks have stalled.
\- \*\*AI/semis:\*\* \*\*Micron reports after the close\*\*, the first big test of memory/AI demand this season.
\## 📊 Breadth / divergence
\`\`\`
ES (S&P 500) +0.07% NQ (Nasdaq-100) -0.09%
YM (Dow) +0.07% RTY (Russ 2000) -0.02%
\`\`\`
\- \*\*Flat and undecided.\*\* All four are within ±0.1%, and the market is looking past the 8:30 prints to Micron and Friday's payrolls.
\## 🔁 Sector rotation (rel to SPY)
\*(5-day lookback — SPY itself −1.19% over the week)\*
\`\`\`
LEADERS (rotating IN, 5d rel) LAGGARDS (rotating OUT, 5d rel)
XLV Health Care +1.68 XLY Consumer Disc -1.64
SMH Semis +1.10 XLB Materials -1.64
XLE Energy +0.80 XLRE Real Estate -1.54
XLI Industrials +0.52 ARKK Growth/spec -1.17
\`\`\`
\- \*\*What's happening:\*\* In a down week, money moved into \*\*health care (XLV, a classic defensive)\*\*, \*\*semis (SMH, chipmakers like NVDA/MU)\*\* and \*\*energy (XLE, a crude play)\*\*. It left \*\*consumer discretionary (XLY: retail, autos, travel)\*\*, \*\*materials (XLB)\*\*, \*\*real estate (XLRE, the most rate-sensitive)\*\* and \*\*speculative growth (ARKK)\*\*.
\- \*\*The story + so-what:\*\* The market is bracing for \*\*higher rates for longer\*\*, selling rate-sensitive groups and buying defensives and energy. Semis are the one offense exception (\*\*SMH +1.3% rel yesterday\*\*), so Micron tonight decides whether they keep that bid.
\## 📈 Macro pulse (moves, not levels)
\- \*\*Yields fell across the curve, led by the front end:\*\* 2Y \*\*−5bp\*\* (4.84%), 10Y \*\*−3.5bp\*\* (5.22%), 30Y −2.5bp (5.57%). This \*\*bull steepener\*\* fits the lower October hike odds, though the 10Y is still above 5.2%.
\- \*\*Vol is calm.\*\* As of Tuesday's close the curve was in \*\*contango\*\* (VIX9D 14.21 < VIX 16.04), so there is no near-term fear premium even with Micron and payrolls ahead.
\- \*\*Oil is the counterweight:\*\* WTI \*\*+1.1%\*\*. With crude near $90, the inflation case for a hike stays alive.
\## 🚨 Event gate
\- \*\*Today:\*\* ADP, PCE and GDP are ✅ \*\*done\*\*. Still ahead: \*\*Chicago PMI 9:45 ET\*\* · \*\*Waller 3:00 PM\*\* (topic is payments, not policy) · \*\*Micron after the close\*\*.
\- \*\*Thu Oct 1:\*\* jobless claims 8:30 · \*\*ISM Manufacturing 10:00\*\* · Fed: Waller 10:00, \*\*Jefferson 1:30 PM ("U.S. Economy and Monetary Policy", the one to watch)\*\*, Bowman 3:00, Cook 3:30.
\- \*\*Fri Oct 2: T1 — September jobs report 8:30 ET.\*\* It is the swing factor for the October hike debate. Next after that: FOMC minutes Oct 7, CPI Oct 14.
\- \*\*Wildcards:\*\* Bullish if Micron guides strong, payrolls come in cool, or Iran talks progress. Bearish if Micron's outlook disappoints, payrolls run hot and put October back in play, or crude spikes.
\## 🧭 Regime read (generalized)
\- \*\*Near-term dealer gamma is negative on both indices, and spot sits just below the flip.\*\* SPY is \~764 vs a flip of \*\*\~765\*\*, with an unusually tight box between the \*\*761 put wall\*\* and the \*\*766 call wall\*\*. The structural full-chain flip is slightly higher at \~767. QQQ is \~738 vs a flip of \*\*\~740\*\*, with walls at \*\*730 / 745\*\*.
\- \*\*Below the flip (short gamma), dealers amplify moves,\*\* so breaks run further than usual. \*\*Above it (long gamma), moves get pinned toward the walls.\*\* A reclaim of SPY \~765–767 / QQQ \~740 would tip the tape toward stickier, range-bound trade.
\- Greeks are prior-session and will shift at the open. Going into Micron and payrolls in short gamma, event reactions are more likely to extend than fade.

# Today is Thursday, the 1st of October
## Upcoming events for Thursday, October 1st
- Stock splits:
- BGM @ **1:30**
- KUST @ **1:10**
- MYPS @ **1:10**
- Expected earnings:
ACN, ALAR, AYI, BTTC, CMMB, DAVA, EONR, HUBG, IPST, ITP, MKC, MKC.V, NKE, SMXT, VFS, VRAX
- Ex-div:
ACQQ, ACRT, ACSP, ADAML, ADAMM, ADAMN, ADAMZ, AGNCL, AGNCM, AGNCN, AGNCO, AGNCP, AGNCZ, AMUN, ANDE, ANGL, BALQ, BCLO, BEDY, BGRN, BKMI, BKMS, BMOP, BND, BNDP, BNDW, BNDX, BREM, BRHY, BRTR, CAIQ, CALI, CANQ, CHAD, CLOA, CPB, CPLS, CWCO, DVAL, EMB, EYEG, FALN, FIMU, FSTB, FULT, GNMA, GOLI, GPIQ, GPIX, GPRF, HBANL, HBANP, HOVNP, HYXF, IBGA, IBGB, IBGC, IBGK, IBGL, IBGM, IBTG, IBTH, IBTI, IBTJ, IBTK, IBTL, IBTM, IBTO, IBTP, IBTQ, IBTR, IEF, IEI, IGIB, IGSB, INBK, IQQQ, ISTB, IUSB, JEPQ, MBB, MULT, MYCF, MYCG, MYCH, MYCI, MYCJ, MYCK, MYCL, MYCM, MYCN, MYCO, MYCP, MYHA, MYHB, MYHC, MYHD, MYHE, MYHF, MYMF, MYMG, MYMH, MYMI, MYMJ, MYMK, MYML, NCPB, NPFI, NUSB, ODTE, PCMM, PEGA, PFF, PLPC, PMBS, PPH, PSC, PSET, PY, QQQT, QQQY, ROCQ, ROCY, SATA, SHY, SKOR, SLQD, SUSB, SUSC, TAXI, TAXS, TAXT, THFF, TLT, TRUC, TRUD, TRUF, TRUH, TRUI, TRUM, TRUN, TRUO, TRUR, TRUT, TRUU, ULTI, USFI, USIG, USMC, USOY, VBCA, VBCB, VBCC, VBCD, VBCE, VBCF, VBCG, VBCH, VBCI, VBCJ, VBIL, VCIT, VCLT, VCRB, VCSH, VGIT, VGLT, VGSH, VGUS, VLGEA, VMBS, VPLS, VSNT, VTC, VTIP, VWOB, WABF, WASH, WTFCN, YLDE, YQQQ
- Economic events and announcements:
- ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (actual: 90K, consensus: 73K, previous: 36K)
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow (actual: 3.7%, consensus: 5.0%, previous: 5.0%)
- Chicago PMI (actual: 58.8, consensus: 51.2, previous: 47.1)
- Core PCE Price Index (actual: 0.2%, consensus: 0.3%, previous: 0.1%)
- Core PCE Price Index (actual: 3.0%, consensus: 3.3%, previous: 3.0%)
- Core PCE Prices (actual: 3.30%, consensus: 3.60%, previous: 4.40%)
- Corporate Profits (actual: 7.7%, consensus: 8.2%, previous: 0.5%)
- Crude Oil Imports (actual: -0.468M, previous: 0.369M)
- Crude Oil Inventories (actual: 0.922M, consensus: -0.700M, previous: 2.969M)
- Cushing Crude Oil Inventories (actual: 0.553M, previous: 2.266M)
- Dallas Fed PCE (actual: 1.90%, previous: 1.90%)
- Distillate Fuel Production (actual: -0.156M, previous: -0.068M)
- EIA Refinery Crude Runs (actual: -0.554M, previous: -0.519M)
- EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks (actual: -2.251M, consensus: -0.200M, previous: -0.428M)
- EIA Weekly Refinery Utilization Rates (actual: -1.5%, previous: -2.8%)
- FOMC Member Barkin Speaks
- FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks
- Fed Goolsbee Speaks
- Fed Governor Cook Speaks
- GDP (actual: 2.2%, consensus: 1.5%, previous: 2.1%)
- GDP Price Index (actual: 6.1%, consensus: 6.4%, previous: 3.6%)
- GDP Sales (actual: 2.8%, consensus: 2.2%, previous: 1.9%)
- Gasoline Inventories (actual: -1.684M, consensus: -0.500M, previous: -1.686M)
- Gasoline Production (actual: -0.124M, previous: -0.054M)
- Goods Trade Balance (actual: -132.60B, consensus: -116.30B, previous: -118.80B)
- Heating Oil Stockpiles (actual: -0.620M, previous: 0.346M)
- MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (actual: 7.30%, previous: 7.12%)
- MBA Mortgage Applications (actual: -6.0%, previous: -1.5%)
- MBA Purchase Index (actual: 148.2, previous: 154.9)
- Mortgage Market Index (actual: 213.6, previous: 227.3)
- Mortgage Refinance Index (actual: 557.8, previous: 611.0)
- PCE Price index (actual: 3.4%, consensus: 3.7%, previous: 3.4%)
- PCE Prices (actual: 5.0%, consensus: 5.3%, previous: 4.6%)
- PCE price index (actual: 0.3%, consensus: 0.4%, previous: 0.1%)
- Personal Income (actual: 0.2%, consensus: 0.5%, previous: 0.3%)
- Personal Spending (actual: 0.9%, consensus: 0.8%, previous: 0.1%)
- Real Consumer Spending (actual: 3.8%, consensus: 3.4%, previous: 0.5%)
- Real Personal Consumption (actual: 0.6%, previous: 0.1%)
- Retail Inventories Ex Auto (actual: 0.1%, previous: 0.8%)
- U.S. President Trump Speaks
- Wholesale Inventories (actual: 0.7%, consensus: 0.5%, previous: 1.3%)
## Upcoming events for Friday, October 2nd
- Stock splits:
- RETO @ **1:20**
- ZCMD @ **1:2**
- Expected earnings:
CELU, ENLV, HTLM, LNAI
- Ex-div:
ALCO, ATNI, CHAD, CSCO, HBNC, LFMDP, MORN, PKBK, RGLD, ROP, SATA, THRM
## Upcoming events for Saturday, October 3rd
- Economic events and announcements:
- Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (previous: 3.1%)
- Average Hourly Earnings (consensus: 0.3%, previous: 0.3%)
- Average Weekly Hours (consensus: 34.3, previous: 34.4)
- CFTC Aluminium speculative net positions (previous: -0.8K)
- CFTC Copper speculative net positions (previous: 90.5K)
- CFTC Corn speculative net positions (previous: 535.8K)
- CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions (previous: 141.1K)
- CFTC Gold speculative net positions (previous: 225.9K)
- CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net positions (previous: 56.1K)
- CFTC Natural Gas speculative net positions (previous: -216.5K)
- CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions (previous: -133.2K)
- CFTC Silver speculative net positions (previous: 25.4K)
- CFTC Soybeans speculative net positions (previous: 281.6K)
- CFTC Wheat speculative net positions (previous: -7.4K)
- Durables Excluding Defense (previous: 0.1%)
- Durables Excluding Transport (previous: 0.3%)
- Factory Orders (consensus: 0.1%, previous: 0.9%)
- Factory orders ex transportation (previous: 0.6%)
- Fed Logan Speaks
- Government Payrolls (previous: 35.0K)
- Manufacturing Payrolls (consensus: 10K, previous: 16K)
- Nonfarm Payrolls (consensus: 89K, previous: 162K)
- Participation Rate (previous: 61.6%)
- Private Nonfarm Payrolls (consensus: 82K, previous: 127K)
- Total Vehicle Sales (consensus: 16.30M, previous: 16.80M)
- U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (previous: 455)
- U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count (previous: 599)
- U6 Unemployment Rate (previous: 7.7%)
- Unemployment Rate (consensus: 4.1%, previous: 4.1%)
^^^^2026-10-01

We bought it at 3.875% in 2018, and refinanced in 2020 at 2.875%. The PMI went away as well at that time. Payment went down about $400 -$450 a month. We are never selling this house.

Are you paying PMI on the house? That would be an easy deciding factor here.

ISM Manufacturing PMI data came out

careful manufaturing PMI number at 10 am

PMI TMI

It's only choppy because 10am PMI data isn't released yet... context my friend.

ISM Manufacturing PMI in 23 minutes will make spy pump to 1%

GST Collections are up and are making record highs, Manufacturing PMI this month again started to tick up, wdym there's no growth??