WF Reddit Mentions | ChartExchange

# Brief Context
I focus mainly on **forex , indices and commodities** like gold. My trading platform and backtesting engine is strictly **MT5 .**I tried to built my own python backtesting engine but it was riddled with logical errors so i stuck with industry default. Tick data with real spreads for backtesting is obtained from quant data manager usibg dukascopy. Forex and gold up to 2008 while ondices go up to 2021. Custom commission and slippage above the norm are applied to break the strategy .Trading bots are **Expert Advisors.**
I mainly focus on **4hr and Daily timeframes** ,why The less trades i take ,the lower the amount i pay in fees (commission) and also that is what traders with **verified darwinex profiles** emphasis. There is a lot of noise in the space so if some one does not have a third party verified track record , **i do not list to them. You too should not list to what i say because i also lack a verified third party track record💀.** But anyways am here to learn and so are you .
# Step 1 - Find strategy ideas
These are mainly found in old internet/books from the early 2000 and late 1990s like Trade like a hedge fund by James Altucher , x and reddit can be sources of good ideas
# Step 2 - Idea to Code
Am not acustomed with MQL5 language so i use an LLM in the IDE to code the EA . Provide the LLM with context regarding the strategy logic , EA design patterns particularily fixed capital risk amount per trade (not a fixed percentage risk of account balance , this invokes compounding effect which affects results incase the strategy initially had a good streak) and ATR based SL and TP for volatility based position sizing.So in low vol , i size big and in high vol size small. I keep configurable strategy parameters below 4 . The rest of the variables are hardcoded to industry defaults. But rarely will a strategy have more than 2 indicators. A moving average is a must as a trend filter .
# Step 3 - Test
This takes most of my time due to tough tests.The EA is compiled in meta editor and tested using strategy tester in MT5. I apply walk forward optimization. This involves splitting a data set into In sample (IS) and Out of sample (OOS) periods. Primarily IS is 3 years while OOS is 1 year. Using my availabe dataset am able to obtain 15 years of pure OOS performance for currencies and 12 years for indices.
During IS , i use the strategy optimizer in MT5 to configure and find the optimal variable for each of the 3 parameters. Choosing the best parameter combinatikns based on max drawdown and pnl would yield the most overfit strategy. So i apply **parameter sensitivity**
The data from the strategy optimizer is exported and a python script is used to generate a heatmap showing profitability of each combination based on intensity of colour. A **3 x 3** grid search is applied to find a region where 9 boxes are fully profitable. The middle box in the 3x3 grid makes our optimal parameter variable. However to avoid overfitting the **outer parameter , A global profitability score of all boxes should > 40% and number of profitable grids in the neighouring positions of the 3x3 grid in +1 or -1 of the outer parameter should be 5/9 .**If none of the above conditions are met , **Failed Robustness Test** watermark is placed on the heatmap and strategy placed in the recycle bin.
However if the above conditions are met, the optimal parameter cknbination is tested on the OOS period. The max OOS Drawdown should not exceed 2x the IS Drawdown.
The WF Validation process is continued until either i attain 3 consecutive net negative OOS years or max drawdown exceeds my threshold (15%) or i failed to find an optimal parameter combination during **parameter sensitivity tests**
# Step 4 - Final test
If a strategy passes through WFW and parameter sensitivity test. The WFW OOS Equity curves and csv files are stitched together. To test for **strategy robustness** , a strategy should not only work on one symbol. If i building a strategy for USDJPY, it should show relative performance on USTEC or XAU as these are trending assets.
After this monte carlo permutation (1000 times) are applied to trade order history and 1000 different equity curves are plotted.If the strategies' performance sits in the upper 90% of all the equity curves , it is discontinued since such historical performance may not repeated so ideally between 40 to 60% range is acceptable. Obtain the 95% max drawdown as this is the drawdown i will size for
And there you have it boys .we have a strategy that may work
# Step 5 - Portfolio Construction
Accumulate a good number of strategies. Measure **correlation** between the strategies. Correlated meaaured strictly on drawdown and position overlap. Build a portfolio consisting of atleast 10 strategies each with a correlation between -0.10 to 0.20 . Size the strategies such that the 95% max drawdown does not wipe out your portfollio