TGT
Target Corporation
stock NYSE

Today's plays were TGT and BBY. Minnesota either taking one for the team or holding up the fort. Respect.

In what world does it make sense for XOM and LMT to be down today whereas TGT is up?

No position in TGT.
Target earnings call starts in about 20 minutes. Press release dropped this morning and a few things stand out before Fiddelke speaks.
Comparable sales down 2.5% in Q4. Down 2.6% for the full year. Store traffic down 2.9%. Apparel down. Home down. The discretionary categories that differentiated Target from Walmart are where customers are leaving.
Full year net sales fell from $106.6B to $104.8B. Operating income down 8.1%. ROIC dropped from 15.4% to 13.8%.
2026 guidance is roughly 2% net sales growth with EPS flat to this year. That is a stabilization narrative not a growth narrative.
Fiddelke is an operator. 23 year insider brought in to optimize the current model. The problem is the current model is what needs rethinking. You cannot operate your way out of an identity crisis.
The one thing worth listening for today: does he name the positioning problem or describe it as an execution problem. Those are different diagnoses with different prognoses. Merchandising authority is the output of a clear brand identity. You cannot strengthen it without first deciding what Target actually is.
February showed positive comparable sales. Expect that to anchor the entire call.

I never said I had puts on SPY. Take a look at TGT. Lol

And can anyone tell me why TF TGT is green today? They are on the wrong end of any inflation in oil prices???

Today everyone is selling gold, oil majors, foreign stocks, and defense companies to buy *checks notes* BBY? TGT?
The actual fuck is this market

https://preview.redd.it/is2emhrgaumg1.png?width=2104&format=png&auto=webp&s=9335b8a20554e81e1299a1402c5fde4b4af20d75
Good morning, SqueezeFinders!
Yesterday's price action showed that despite bears having controlled the overnight session and premarket, the bulls came in strong to bring a resilient intraday r/G reversal from premarket lows on the $QQQ tech index of below 597 to close the day at 608.09 (+0.13%). Albeit not a crazy strong day, the reversal speaks for itself. Despite the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle-East, the bulls still brought a green close to fruition in the midst of all the fear and panic. We remain still in the bearish-leaning neutral zone below the 613 pivot, but we are getting closer to bulls regaining directional sentiment control. I'd say only get concerned/worried if we fall under 600 intraday today. The main directional sentiment determinants today will be a mix of large earnings reports ($TGT in premarket, and $CRWD in after-hours), and the below-detailed economic data releases plus ongoing headline developments from the situation overseas. (If war continues to drag on, stay focused on small cap oil and/or drone stocks) Regardless of broader market sentiment, you can always locate relative strength by tapping/clicking the column headers to sort the live watchlist in descending order of whichever data metric is important to you. You can also use SqueezeRadar to stay on top of which plays are showing alarming movement in respective data metrics. Keep your eyes on SqueezeBot as the team's recent patches and code optimizations have turned SqueezeBot into a scalping machine with fixed % auto profit-taking with stellar results already by SqueezeFinder with real $. Stay tuned for what's next at SqueezeFinder!
🥇 Gold: \~$5,380/oz (+1.3%)
🥈 Silver: \~$90/oz (+1.4%)
🪙 Bitcoin: \~$68.4k/coin (+2.35%)
Today's economic data releases are:
🇺🇸 FOMC Member Williams Speaks @ 9:55AM ET
🇺🇸 FOMC Member Kaskhari Speaks @ 11:45AM ET
🇺🇸 API Weekly Crude Oil Stock @ 4:30PM ET
📙Breakdown point: BELOW this price, the move will lose momentum significantly in the short-term, as shorts will gain confidence encouraging them to short more. Reducing probability of a squeeze without a catalyst.
📙Breakout point: ABOVE this price, the move will gain momentum significantly in the short-term, as shorts losses will increase pressuring them to cover. Increasing the probability of a squeeze occurring, especially if with a catalyst.
4. $AEHR
Squeezability Score: 46%
Juice Target: 63.6
Confidence: 🍊 🍊 🍊
Price: 44.03 (+17.63%)
Breakdown point: 34.0
Breakout point: 54.1
Mentions (30D): 5
Event/Condition: Strong bullish momentum + Potentially imminent continuation of long-term bullish momentum + Announces over $5.5 million Sonoma ultra-high-power orders for AI processor testing and burn-in alongside launch of fully-automated Sonoma system enhancing efficiency for advanced AI chip production + Secures initial Sonoma system order for next-gen AI ASIC processors from leading hyperscale customer signaling strong entry into high-volume AI manufacturing and multi-year revenue potential + Receives $14 million order for multiple fully automated FOX-XP wafer-level burn-in systems from top AI processor client driving immediate backlog growth and underscoring demand for reliable AI semiconductor solutions + Recent price target 🎯 of $50 from William Blair + Recent price target 🎯 of $55 from Lake + Recent price target 🎯 of $60 from Craig-Hallum.
5. $UMAC
Squeezability Score: 39%
Juice Target: 27.2
Confidence: 🍊 🍊
Price: 14.21 (+4.1%)
Breakdown point: 13.0
Breakout point: 17.5
Mentions (30D): 2
Event/Condition: Donald Trump Jr on Board of Directors + Rel vol spike + Potentially imminent resumption of long-term bullish momentum + $3.75M initial order secured from Performance Drone Works supporting rapid scaling of AM-FPV program and strengthening strategic supplier ties in defense sector + promotion of Drew Camden to President enhancing leadership focus on operational execution and growth in U.S. drone manufacturing + appointment of Stacy Wright as Chief Revenue Officer accelerating enterprise sales push in NDAA-compliant components amid rising military and commercial demand + Recent price target 🎯 of $20 from Needham + Recent price target 🎯 of $20 from Jones Trading + Recent price target 🎯 of $20 from Maxim Group.
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NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE, THESE POSTS ARE FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY

Gonna need TGT to just dump to $105 right before opening. Please and thank you

# Today is Tuesday, the 3rd of March
## Upcoming events for Tuesday, March 3rd
- Stock splits:
- MRDN @ **1:12**
- Expected earnings:
ACEL, ACNT, ADIL, ADV, AMLX, ANTA, ARCT, AVAV, AZO, BBY, BCYC, BGS, BIOX, BNRG, BOX, BRCB, BWLP, CAPS, CPIX, CPSS, CRCT, CRWD, CVEO, CXDO, CYCN, CYRX, EML, EOLS, EVGO, FSP, FSTR, FTEK, GTE, GTLB, HIHO, HRZN, HY, KTB, MASS, MDV, MEC, MNDO, MRX, NERV, NPCE, ONON, ORN, OXSQ, PASG, PSFE, QSI, QUIK, RIGL, ROST, RYAM, SCOR, SE, SGC, SHG, SLND, SNN, SOPH, SRAD, SRRK, SRTA, SSII, SSTI, STAA, SWIM, TELO, TGT, THO, TIL, UPLD, VIK, VLGEA, VSNT, WBTN, WEYS, WHLR, WMK, WSBF, YORW
- Ex-div:
ADI, CASS, RUSHA, RUSHB, TSPY
- Economic events and announcements:
- 3-Month Bill Auction (actual: 3.610%, previous: 3.590%)
- 6-Month Bill Auction (actual: 3.535%, previous: 3.525%)
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow (actual: 3.0%, consensus: 3.0%, previous: 3.0%)
- ISM Manufacturing Employment (actual: 48.8, consensus: 48.3, previous: 48.1)
- ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index (actual: 55.8, consensus: 53.3, previous: 57.1)
- ISM Manufacturing PMI (actual: 52.4, consensus: 51.7, previous: 52.6)
- ISM Manufacturing Prices (actual: 70.5, consensus: 60.6, previous: 59.0)
- S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (actual: 51.6, consensus: 51.2, previous: 51.2)
- U.S. President Trump Speaks
## Upcoming events for Wednesday, March 4th
- Stock splits:
- BWAY @ **2:1**
- SPRC @ **1:9**
- Expected earnings:
ACR, ADGM, AEO, AFCG, ALTO, ANF, AQST, ARDT, ASPI, ASPS, ATNI, AUUD, AVGO, AWRE, BBAR, BBLG, BBOT, BBWI, BF.A, BF.B, BLFY, BLLN, BTE, BULL, BWMN, BYND, CBRL, CCRN, CDLX, CHPT, CIX, CLPT, CLRB, CPHI, CSTE, CUB, CULP, CYN, DAKT, DY, EARN, EC, EDIT, EHAB, EWCZ, EYE, EYPT, FLYE, FRPH, GEF.B, GENI, GO, GPGI, GPRK, HCAT, HDSN, HLLY, HYFM, HYMC, ICCC, ICLR, IMXI, IPI, JBI, KB, KMDA, KROS, LINK, LPSN, LUNG, MEI, MG, MLR, MLYS, MRAM, MVIS, MX, NAGE, NC, NCSM, NEXN, NGD, NNBR, OABI, OCGN, OFLX, OKTA, OLP, OOMA, PAGS, PCSC, PFSA, PKOH, RDVT, REAX, REI, REPX, RGTI, RJET, RSKD, SBXD, SEG, SEMR, SES, SGHT, SHPH, SLNG, SMRT, SMSI, SNBR, SRI, STEM, STKL, STUB, STVN, TARA, TBPH, TCRX, TIPT, TPVG, TSE, TSHA, UCFI, UGP, VBNK, VCIC, VEEV, VET, VINP, VIVS, VMD, VSTM, WBX, WF, WIX, XFLT, XTIA, ZBIO
- Ex-div:
AVT, BGC, CAKE, FOX, FOXA, LRCX, OBT, ODFL, PAHC, PEBK, PYPL, SHBI, WSC
- Economic events and announcements:
- API Weekly Crude Oil Stock (consensus: 2.200M, previous: 11.400M)
- FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks
- FOMC Member Williams Speaks
- IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (consensus: 50.1, previous: 48.8)
- Redbook (previous: 6.7%)
## Upcoming events for Thursday, March 5th
- Stock splits:
- DUST @ **1:10**
- JDST @ **1:20**
- HIBS @ **1:10**
- SOXS @ **1:20**
- TR @ **103:100**
- Expected earnings:
ACET, ACFN, AEYE, AKA, ALGS, ALNT, ALT, AMBQ, AMPX, AMPY, ASLE, ATHM, AVIR, BABA, BAER, BCIC, BDTX, BILI, BJ, BRLT, BURL, BVS, CANG, CCEC, CIEN, CLAR, CNQ, COO, COOK, COST, CRMT, CSAI, CTMX, CTNM, CV, DDL, DLNG, DOMO, DSGR, DTI, ELME, ERO, EVC, EVGN, FGBI, FHTX, FIZZ, FLL, FLYX, FNKO, FTCI, GAP, GDYN, GENK, GEVO, GHI, GOTU, GPRO, GREE, GRNT, GROV, GSL, GWH, GWRE, GWRS, HCM, HMR, III, IMA, IMPP, INUV, INV, IOT, ITRN, JD, KIDZ, KR, KURA, KVHI, LBRX, LCTX, LIMN, LODE, LOMA, LQDA, LWLG, LXRX, M, MCHX, MDWD, MEOH, MKTW, MLCI, MRVL, MYE, NEXM, NMAX, NOEM, NUTX, NX, NXTC, OLPX, OMDA, ONL, OPRX, ORKA, OWLT, PACK, PBFS, PBR, PBR.A, PDYN, PMTS, PROF, PROP, PRTS, PSHG, PTRN, RAIN, RAND, RAPT, RBNE, REFR, RGNX, RNGR, RTO, SAMG, SLDB, SOBO, SSYS, SWBI, TEAD, TKC, TLSI, TOUR, TOVX, TRC, TTC, TTRX, UEIC, ULH, UROY, USAR, VOXR, VRME, VSCO, VTIX, VYNE, WLY, WLYB, WW, WYFI, XTNT
- Ex-div:
EXE, EXPE, FANG, HWC, JKHY, NRIM, ONB, QCOM, SLM, SLMBP, VNOM, WDC
- Economic events and announcements:
- ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (consensus: 50K, previous: 22K)
- Beige Book
- Crude Oil Imports (previous: 0.412M)
- Crude Oil Inventories (previous: 15.989M)
- Cushing Crude Oil Inventories (previous: 0.881M)
- Distillate Fuel Production (previous: -0.136M)
- EIA Refinery Crude Runs (previous: -0.416M)
- EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks (previous: 0.252M)
- EIA Weekly Refinery Utilization Rates (previous: -2.4%)
- Gasoline Inventories (previous: -1.011M)
- Gasoline Production (previous: -0.223M)
- Heating Oil Stockpiles (previous: -0.119M)
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity (previous: 57.4)
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (previous: 50.3)
- ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders (previous: 53.1)
- ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (consensus: 53.5, previous: 53.8)
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (previous: 66.6)
- MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (previous: 6.09%)
- MBA Mortgage Applications (previous: 0.4%)
- MBA Purchase Index (previous: 149.7)
- Mortgage Market Index (previous: 340.2)
- Mortgage Refinance Index (previous: 1,432.9)
- S&P Global Composite PMI (consensus: 52.3, previous: 53.0)
- S&P Global Services PMI (consensus: 52.3, previous: 52.7)
- Total Vehicle Sales (consensus: 15.20M, previous: 14.90M)
## Upcoming events for Friday, March 6th
- Expected earnings:
AIMD, AIRO, ALBT, APVO, AQN, ARAI, ATRA, AXR, BH, BH.A, BRID, CEPO, CLPS, CMCT, EMBJ, FGNX, FORA, GCO, GIG, GTBP, HURC, IGC, IQST, ITRM, KINS, KLRS, LFWD, NODK, NOMA, NTHI, NUTR, ONCY, RVYL, SAFX, SBLX, SCLX, SEV, SGRP, SONM, TEN, TRNR, TUSK, USBC, XXI, ZOOZ
- Ex-div:
BKNG, CBSH, CCOI, CHRW, CURI, EBAY, EBC, EXPO, FRME, KHC, KMB, MBWM, MZTI, NAVI, NTRS, OTEX, PEP, TCBK, TRST, UNTY, WING, WSBC, WSBCO
- Economic events and announcements:
- 4-Week Bill Auction (previous: 3.625%)
- 8-Week Bill Auction (previous: 3.630%)
- Challenger Job Cuts (previous: 108.435K)
- Challenger Job Cuts (previous: 117.8%)
- Continuing Jobless Claims (previous: 1,833K)
- Export Price Index (previous: 0.3%)
- Export Price Index (previous: 3.1%)
- Exports (previous: 287.30B)
- FOMC Member Bowman Speaks
- Factory Orders (previous: -0.7%)
- Factory orders ex transportation (previous: 0.4%)
- Fed's Balance Sheet (previous: 6,614B)
- Import Price Index (consensus: 0.2%, previous: 0.1%)
- Import Price Index (previous: 0.0%)
- Imports (previous: 357.60B)
- Initial Jobless Claims (consensus: 215K, previous: 212K)
- Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. (previous: 220.25K)
- Natural Gas Storage (previous: -52B)
- Nonfarm Productivity (consensus: 1.7%, previous: 4.9%)
- Reserve Balances with Federal Reserve Banks (previous: 3.004T)
- Trade Balance (previous: -70.30B)
- Unit Labor Costs (consensus: 2.1%, previous: -1.9%)
^^^^2026-03-03

My TGT puts are fuk

Yoooooo, YOOOOOOOOOOOOOO. Wtf happened? Everything on my watchlist is red other than TGT

lol TGT up

Wouldn't want to try to play TGT earnings personally. I don't disagree with you points, I think they are valid, but I think it's up in the air even before guidance. So why, strikes me as looking for a play, over earnings.
If I was going to I'd rather look for one after personally. Why play risk alone imo, how I read the trade at least.

I need TGT to bang hard tomorrow.

**Buy Now:**  BGS, FRPT, IRD, NKTX, TXG
**Stocks to sell now:**  CE
**Recent Buys:** 
**Recent Sells:**  ATS, CMCO, CMTL, SNDK, KOP
**Close to Buy Triggers:**  ALGN, AMN, ASTI, CCCC, EMN, EXPO, FATE, FF, HBM, IRDM, KRO, LGIH, LWLG, LYSCF, MRVI, NX, OLN, OXM, RH, SCVL, SIFY, SMC, SRPT, STZ, TMQ, TROX, UA, VSTS, XRAY
**Current model owned stocks (stop sell price):**
**Updated (stop sell) orders calculated from technical analysis model output.**
ALMS (26.98), ASH (57.99), AVNS (12.91), BORR (5.03), CW (594.06), DSX (2.13), EGY (4.64), ESLT (631.12), JBSS (76.82), MRK (105.36), MRNA (45.63), NEOG (9.92), STRO (16.79), TGT (110.45), TNDM (24.23), VALE (14.30), WLFC (174.40), WLK (93.32)
 
Quantity of current Holdings:      19 stocks (19% equity)
New Sells                                             -1
New Buys                                            5
New Quantity of Stocks:                 23
 
**Market Timing Model Status Update**    **Gray**.  The gray status occurred when the S&P500 10-Day moving average featured a 3^(rd) sine wave peak, where each peak is declining from the former.  For accounts that can only invest in equity index funds, recommended position is 100% cash.
Happy Investing,
Ludicrous Returns

I'll bet TGT doesn't make a bigger move than the implied move and you lose with IV crush

just say you didnt read the thesis with out saying you didnt read the thesis... Then read TGT Just in time shipping theories...

Stop gambling earnings. You cannot predict what will happen. IV crush is most likely fate.
Look at NVDA excellent numbers, dumps. Look at OPEN terrible numbers, pumps.
You're being way too logical, algos could see this as opportunity to sell-off existing inventory and TGT pumps for all you know.

so you heard me out lol
yesterday i posted about OXY calls before the monday gap and a bunch of you told me i was crazy. OXY opened up 7% premarket and closed up 2.4% even after the fade. my april calls are up 48%. cool. but that was the obvious trade. everyone figured out oil goes up when you close the strait of hormuz. congratulations
heres the trade nobody is talking about yet and its the other side of the same coin
target (TGT) reports earnings tomorrow morning pre-market. march 3rd. and i think this is going to be an absolute disaster that nobody has priced in because everyone is too busy watching oil tickers
let me explain
remember all those ships i told you about sitting in the persian gulf? 750+ vessels trapped? that wasnt just oil tankers. 170+ container ships are sitting there doing nothing. those container ships carry the stuff that fills targets shelves. spring inventory. seasonal merchandise. the stuff target needs to sell at full margin to make their quarter work
but it gets worse. its not just hormuz. the suez canal has been disrupted since the houthis started hitting ships. so you have BOTH major shipping routes between asia and the US either closed or extremely dangerous right now. every major carrier — maersk, hapag-lloyd, CMA CGM, MSC — has suspended transits through hormuz. some of them already rerouted from suez months ago. now theres nowhere to go except the long way around africa which adds 2-3 weeks and costs way more
container shipping surcharges are up $1500-4000 per container basically overnight. thats not a small number when youre target and you move millions of containers a year
so heres the cascade that i dont think wall street has connected yet:
1. spring inventory is late. its either sitting on ships in the gulf or its taking an extra 3 weeks around the cape of good hope
2. late spring inventory misses the seasonal selling window. you cant sell easter decorations in may
3. missed seasonal windows mean forced markdowns. target has to clear product at a loss to make room for summer inventory
4. but summer inventory is ALSO delayed because the same shipping routes are closed
5. gross margins collapse. youre marking down old stuff while paying surge pricing to get new stuff
this isnt theoretical. target already showed weakness BEFORE the shipping crisis. Q3 comp sales were down 2.7%. gross margin was 28.2% and trending wrong. foot traffic has declined for 10 straight weeks. goldman sachs literally downgraded them to neutral last week and cut their price target from $142 to $101 citing "discretionary category concerns and earnings downside risk"
but heres the thing — none of that goldman downgrade factored in hormuz. that happened BEFORE friday night. the shipping crisis is a whole new layer of pain that hasnt been modeled into anyones estimates yet
target is not walmart. walmart wins in a recession because people trade down to value. target lives in the middle — not cheap enough to be the trade-down destination, not premium enough to have pricing power. when gas prices spike and shipping costs explode, targets customer is the one who stops buying the $40 throw pillow and the $25 candle. those are targets margin products
think about what management has to say tomorrow morning. they have to address the shipping situation. they have to give Q1 guidance that somehow accounts for the fact that their supply chain just got blown up by a war. what do they say? "yeah our containers are trapped in the persian gulf and we have no idea when theyre coming back but buy our stock"
now i want to be clear — this is not a long term short-target-goes-to-zero thesis. target is a real company that will survive. this is a "the next 60 days are going to be absolutely brutal for their numbers and nobody has priced it in" thesis
red is the new black. targets color is red. oil is black. the same crisis thats making my OXY calls print is going to crush targets margins. two sides of the same geopolitical trade
risks — earnings could somehow surprise to the upside on Q4 numbers since most of that quarter happened before the strikes. management could sandbag guidance so hard that expectations reset and the stock rallies on "not as bad as feared." ceasefire could come tomorrow and shipping resumes faster than expected. and targets already down from its highs so some of this pain might be in the stock
positions: TGT puts. taking profits if it gaps down hard, holding may expiration for the full inventory cascade to play out

Both TGT and BBY have their big investor meetings on the day - if there happens to be a mega retail merger/partnership, RK would clearly be proven a time-traveler (again, no surprise)