TGT
Target Corporation
stockNYSE

It’s possible it will take longer than TGT but I could also see it going as fast because a lot of buyers might step in when the Nike turnaround is starting to look promising.

Nike will be fine. It may take longer than $TGT because Nike’s demo is poorer. People here don’t know how to buy into fear. Everything is a falling knife or a toll road worth paying 30x earnings for. Whatever lol, if investing was easy the consensus would not always be confident in being wrong.

This post was for "educational" purpose only, to show how to dissect (deconstruct) an ETF to really see what it's inside it, and go beyond the marketing (and paid shills/fkluencers BS). It was never about performance. If I want to give lip service to the gospel, I might as well head off to Bogleheads sr and just say buy VT/VTI/VOO!!! The reason we are here on this sr is that we want to explore beyond the gospel! Back to FMTM vs other momentum ETFs. === vs SPMO === DELL MPC MRVL NTAP PANW TGT === vs MTUM === ANET DELL ILMN MPC MRVL NTAP OKTA PANW SN TGT === vs SGRT === DELL HALO MPC P PANW SMTC == vs XMMO == DINO SMTC == vs SMLF === CHYM CRL DINO HALO P PAYC RGEN RNG SMTC SN TEM == vs JMOM == DELL DINO MPC MRVL NTAP NTRA OKTA P PANW PLTR RNG SMTC SN SNOW TGT

TGT

T and TGT

Basically watching paint dry, I might sell a put on TGT tomorrow, I haven't checked recently to see what I like.

Hi All, I keep reading and seeing FMTM etf in this forum and online. They advertise a lot online (instagram and other places). They are touting it's return against SPY (S&P 500), even though its a pure momentum active etf. I have commented on their ad in Insta to compare against momentum etfs such as SPMO, etc. I have seen ONE ad which compares it against SPMO. Anyway, the point of this post is to deconstruct it, as of Oct 6, 2026. These are the holdings, pulled from their website. It has 30 positions, equal weighted approx. Downloaded from here [https://www.marketdeskindices.com/fmtm](https://www.marketdeskindices.com/fmtm) A AMGN ANET CHYM CRL DELL DINO DT EQH HALO ILMN MPC MRVL NTAP NTRA OKTA P PANW PAYC PLTR RGEN RNG RVTY SMTC SN SNOW TEM TGT TMO ZBRA I ran them through SPY, IJH, IJR and a few others. === SPX500 (SPY) stocks - 16 stocks === A AMGN ANET CRL DELL ILMN MPC MRVL NTAP P PANW PLTR RVTY TGT TMO ZBRA === SP400 (IJH midcap stocks) 8 stocks === DINO DT EQH HALO OKTA RGEN SMTC SN === SP600 (IJR - small cap) 2 stocks == PAYC RNG ==== BTW - all stocks are in IWB (Russell 1000 stocks ) === IWL (Russell Top 200) - 8 stocks === AMGN ANET DELL MRVL PANW PLTR TGT TMO ====== === IWR (Russell Midcap) - 22 stocks!! ==== A CHYM CRL DINO DT EQH HALO ILMN MPC NTAP NTRA OKTA P PAYC RGEN RNG RVTY SMTC SN SNOW TEM ZBRA ==== So based on S&P indices - its about 50% SPY And based on Russell - its only more like 70% midcap.

All your bear cases are just narratives. I made money on TGT thanks to ppl believing in dumb narratives that dont show up in the numbers.

First of all let me stress that the following short term catalyst are some that I am eying out as *potential* catalysts and not some that I necessarily expect to happen. Secondly, before turning all skeptical about the possibility of these happening please consider that everyone was saying the same thing about TGT stock six months ago and look at where it is today. Okay, so a lot of people are saying that if you buy Nike stock today you will have to be patient and consider it a long term investment that isn’t very likely to give good returns short term. While that could turn or to be true it’s also very possible that it could turn out to be incorrect. Here are some potential short term catalysts for a speedy recovery of Nike stock back to let’s say $40-45 in the next 1-3 months. **#1.** Maybe the move from $40 to $35 that happened prior to earnings was a pricing in of what turned out to be the reality of earnings when they were reported. Even if guidance was more cautious than officially expected from Wall Street analysts, perhaps the market wasn’t surprised by it. **#2.** The market sees that this was the final reset and the likelihood of more bad news to come is smaller than it was prior to earnings. Guidance was extremely cautious with eps in 2027 expected to be almost half what they were in 2026. If it’s unlikely Nike will disappoint but just do as well as expected and if ultimately the market expects Nike to turn things around 2-3 years from now, the stock might as well start to climb right now. **#3.** From March to August the stock hovered above $40 but close to it. From August to September it suddenly fell $5. Maybe it will re-test $40 soon. **#4.** Investor Day is coming up next month. Specifically, management says it will lay out a clearer long term growth algorithm at Investor Day. Historically, Investor Day is a day of bullish news. Look at ONON recently which had bearish earnings but then bullish investor day. Also, for Nike especially everyone is debating if Nike is truly becoming a smaller player or if it will return to its glory days somehow- if Nike shares ambitious financial targets for 2029 like On Running did, the stock could see a big relief rally. The mere possibility of that happening means the stock could climb right now because the event is next month. **#5** Tim Cook and/or Elliott Hill could purchase more shares soon. They both bought when the stock was in the $50-60 range and again when it was near $42. At $34 it’s plausible that they would buy again as they are more patient than the rest of us and if they feel the turnaround is eventually going to happen, they have nothing to worry about by buying now. **#6** Nike remains a giant. And its stock is cheaper than ever before. Even if its PE and forward PE especially is higher than most if not all peers, it’s still a lot lower than it’s been for Nike historically. At any given time, a big buyer like Bill Ackman may re-enter the stage. **#7** Macro could improve and make consumer stocks similar to NKE such as DKS, ONON, DECK, LULU (yes even LULU) and NKE itself jump 10-20 % in a few months. Oil prices could go down. Positive news in Iran. **#8** Next earnings in December probably has an extremely low bar. Management already reset expectations- now it may start beating them. **#9** North America continues outperforming. North American revenue rose 2% currency-neutral, with wholesale up 9% and footwear up 1%. It’s possible the market is digesting this news after the earnings report and realizing that if all is well in North America, eventually Europe and China will stabilize. In comparison, Lululemon reported Americas comparable sales down 12 % YoY. Not bad that Nike managed to do 2 % up in North America revenue. **#10** Gross margins keep surprising positively. Just one more thing the market could be paying too little attention to right now but may realize in coming months and maybe Investor Day will make it clearer next month. **#11** Holiday/consumer data comes in better than feared. **#12** The market sees Pace not as a necessary cost cutting story but as an aggressive move to fix the cost structure. Investor Day could change sentiment about Pace. **#13** New product launches like the Caitlin Clark shoes and the Alphafly 4 which launches this month could be successful and change sentiment for the stock- Caitlin Clark release sold out really fast.

DMCC stock Analysis - TGT 413