TGT
Target Corporation
stock NYSE

Wouldn't want to try to play TGT earnings personally. I don't disagree with you points, I think they are valid, but I think it's up in the air even before guidance. So why, strikes me as looking for a play, over earnings.
If I was going to I'd rather look for one after personally. Why play risk alone imo, how I read the trade at least.

I need TGT to bang hard tomorrow.

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I'll bet TGT doesn't make a bigger move than the implied move and you lose with IV crush

just say you didnt read the thesis with out saying you didnt read the thesis... Then read TGT Just in time shipping theories...

Stop gambling earnings. You cannot predict what will happen. IV crush is most likely fate.
Look at NVDA excellent numbers, dumps. Look at OPEN terrible numbers, pumps.
You're being way too logical, algos could see this as opportunity to sell-off existing inventory and TGT pumps for all you know.

so you heard me out lol
yesterday i posted about OXY calls before the monday gap and a bunch of you told me i was crazy. OXY opened up 7% premarket and closed up 2.4% even after the fade. my april calls are up 48%. cool. but that was the obvious trade. everyone figured out oil goes up when you close the strait of hormuz. congratulations
heres the trade nobody is talking about yet and its the other side of the same coin
target (TGT) reports earnings tomorrow morning pre-market. march 3rd. and i think this is going to be an absolute disaster that nobody has priced in because everyone is too busy watching oil tickers
let me explain
remember all those ships i told you about sitting in the persian gulf? 750+ vessels trapped? that wasnt just oil tankers. 170+ container ships are sitting there doing nothing. those container ships carry the stuff that fills targets shelves. spring inventory. seasonal merchandise. the stuff target needs to sell at full margin to make their quarter work
but it gets worse. its not just hormuz. the suez canal has been disrupted since the houthis started hitting ships. so you have BOTH major shipping routes between asia and the US either closed or extremely dangerous right now. every major carrier — maersk, hapag-lloyd, CMA CGM, MSC — has suspended transits through hormuz. some of them already rerouted from suez months ago. now theres nowhere to go except the long way around africa which adds 2-3 weeks and costs way more
container shipping surcharges are up $1500-4000 per container basically overnight. thats not a small number when youre target and you move millions of containers a year
so heres the cascade that i dont think wall street has connected yet:
1. spring inventory is late. its either sitting on ships in the gulf or its taking an extra 3 weeks around the cape of good hope
2. late spring inventory misses the seasonal selling window. you cant sell easter decorations in may
3. missed seasonal windows mean forced markdowns. target has to clear product at a loss to make room for summer inventory
4. but summer inventory is ALSO delayed because the same shipping routes are closed
5. gross margins collapse. youre marking down old stuff while paying surge pricing to get new stuff
this isnt theoretical. target already showed weakness BEFORE the shipping crisis. Q3 comp sales were down 2.7%. gross margin was 28.2% and trending wrong. foot traffic has declined for 10 straight weeks. goldman sachs literally downgraded them to neutral last week and cut their price target from $142 to $101 citing "discretionary category concerns and earnings downside risk"
but heres the thing — none of that goldman downgrade factored in hormuz. that happened BEFORE friday night. the shipping crisis is a whole new layer of pain that hasnt been modeled into anyones estimates yet
target is not walmart. walmart wins in a recession because people trade down to value. target lives in the middle — not cheap enough to be the trade-down destination, not premium enough to have pricing power. when gas prices spike and shipping costs explode, targets customer is the one who stops buying the $40 throw pillow and the $25 candle. those are targets margin products
think about what management has to say tomorrow morning. they have to address the shipping situation. they have to give Q1 guidance that somehow accounts for the fact that their supply chain just got blown up by a war. what do they say? "yeah our containers are trapped in the persian gulf and we have no idea when theyre coming back but buy our stock"
now i want to be clear — this is not a long term short-target-goes-to-zero thesis. target is a real company that will survive. this is a "the next 60 days are going to be absolutely brutal for their numbers and nobody has priced it in" thesis
red is the new black. targets color is red. oil is black. the same crisis thats making my OXY calls print is going to crush targets margins. two sides of the same geopolitical trade
risks — earnings could somehow surprise to the upside on Q4 numbers since most of that quarter happened before the strikes. management could sandbag guidance so hard that expectations reset and the stock rallies on "not as bad as feared." ceasefire could come tomorrow and shipping resumes faster than expected. and targets already down from its highs so some of this pain might be in the stock
positions: TGT puts. taking profits if it gaps down hard, holding may expiration for the full inventory cascade to play out

Both TGT and BBY have their big investor meetings on the day - if there happens to be a mega retail merger/partnership, RK would clearly be proven a time-traveler (again, no surprise)

I am pretty sure that TGT CEO will pick up the earnings call tomorrow and just weep into the mic literally the entire time. This will naturally cause TGT to rocket. So, plan your calls (I have puts).

"They don't need as much cash if it's a merger or partnership!" is their current cope.
If it's a merger or partnership, current GME shares will only be priced as GME's total contribution to the final company. The other company's contribution will be ther other part, and if they're the bigger company, their shares will take most of the equity.
Using their oft-imagined GME-TGT scenario, GME's $10 billion market cap + Target's $50 billion market cap would create a $60 billion company, but TGT holders would get 5x the Teddy shares that each GME shareholder gets. GME shares do not go from worth $10 billion to worth the entire $60 billion of the new company.

Opened Today:
- Calls: CRDO • ASTS • BBY
- Puts: SRAD • MDB
Am going to add puts for OUST and TGT near market close.
*Disclaimer: I'd never take advice from a guy who'd give me advice...*

# Today is Monday, the 2nd of March
## Upcoming events for Monday, March 2nd
- Stock splits:
- AZLUY @ **1:75**
- BGAVF @ **1:8**
- CSLLY @ **2:1**
- BURU @ **1:4.99**
- PPBT @ **1:10**
- ZCMD @ **1:8**
- Expected earnings:
AAON, ACHR, ADT, ADTX, AGIG, AIV, ALG, AMRC, ANNX, APGE, API, ASAN, ASTH, ASTI, ASTS, AVBP, AZTR, BAOS, BBAI, BEEP, BHVN, BLTE, BRCC, BYFC, CERS, CGEN, CMMB, CORZ, CRC, CRD.A, CRD.B, CRDO, DAVE, EKSO, EU, FSCO, GAIA, GEMI, GRRR, GUTS, HLIO, HROW, IHRT, INGM, INR, JRVR, KBDC, KOS, KSPI, LIF, LMB, MDB, MRCC, NCLH, NEXT, NFE, NMRA, NUVB, NXE, OFS, OUST, PAM, PEPG, PLRX, PLUG, PMVP, QTRX, QUBT, QURE, RDNT, RGR, RHLD, RICK, RIOT, RPAY, SATS, SAVA, SEE, SENS, SGRY, STNE, SVCC, TDUP, TPB, TREE, TUYA, UNIT, URGN, VG, VTS, WAVE, WHF, WTI, XERS, YSG, ZYME
- Ex-div:
AMUN, ANGL, BALQ, BCLO, BEDY, BGRN, BKMI, BKMS, BMOP, BND, BNDP, BNDW, BNDX, BREM, BRHY, BRTR, CA, CAIQ, CALI, CANQ, CLOA, CPLS, EMB, EXC, EYEG, FALN, FFBC, FGNXP, GCMG, GGAL, GNMA, GPIQ, GPIX, GPRF, GTX, HQI, HYXF, IBGA, IBGB, IBGK, IBGL, IBTG, IBTH, IBTI, IBTJ, IBTK, IBTL, IBTM, IBTO, IBTP, IBTQ, IEF, IEI, IGIB, IGSB, IQQQ, ISTB, IUSB, JEPQ, LCNB, LFVN, MBB, MCRI, MYCF, MYCG, MYCH, MYCI, MYCJ, MYCK, MYCL, MYCM, MYCN, MYCO, MYMF, MYMG, MYMH, MYMI, MYMJ, MYMK, NBTB, NCPB, NPFI, NUSB, NZUS, PCMM, PFF, PMBS, PRDO, PTEN, QQQT, RCKY, SAFT, SHY, SKOR, SLQD, SSNC, SUSB, SUSC, TAXI, TAXS, TAXT, TCBIO, TLT, TW, UFPI, USFI, USIG, VBIL, VC, VCIT, VCLT, VCRB, VCSH, VGIT, VGLT, VGSH, VGUS, VMBS, VPLS, VTC, VWOB, WABF, WEN, YBST, YBTY, YLDE
- Economic events and announcements:
- OPEC Meeting
## Upcoming events for Tuesday, March 3rd
- Stock splits:
- GMGI @ **1:12**
- Expected earnings:
ACEL, ACNT, ADIL, ADV, AMLX, ANTA, ARCT, AVAV, AZO, BBY, BCYC, BGS, BIOX, BMR, BNRG, BOX, BRCB, BWLP, CAPS, CPIX, CPSS, CRCT, CRWD, CVEO, CXDO, CYCN, CYRX, EML, EOLS, EVGO, FSP, FSTR, FTEK, GTE, GTLB, HIHO, HRZN, HY, KTB, MASS, MDV, MEC, MNDO, MRX, NERV, NPCE, ONON, ORN, OXSQ, PASG, PSFE, QSI, QUIK, RIGL, ROST, RYAM, SCM, SCOR, SE, SGC, SHG, SLND, SNN, SOPH, SRAD, SRRK, SRTA, SSII, SSTI, STAA, SWIM, TELO, TGT, THO, TIL, UPLD, VIK, VLGEA, VSNT, WBTN, WEYS, WHLR, WMK, WSBF, YORW
- Ex-div:
ADI, CASS, RUSHA, RUSHB
- Economic events and announcements:
- 3-Month Bill Auction (previous: 3.590%)
- 6-Month Bill Auction (previous: 3.525%)
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow (consensus: 3.0%, previous: 3.0%)
- ISM Manufacturing Employment (previous: 48.1)
- ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index (previous: 57.1)
- ISM Manufacturing PMI (consensus: 51.7, previous: 52.6)
- ISM Manufacturing Prices (consensus: 60.6, previous: 59.0)
- S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (consensus: 51.2, previous: 52.4)
## Upcoming events for Wednesday, March 4th
- Stock splits:
- BWAY @ **2:1**
- Expected earnings:
ACR, ADGM, AEO, AFCG, ALTO, AMPY, ANF, AQST, ARDT, ASPI, ASPS, ATNI, AUUD, AVGO, AWRE, BBAR, BBOT, BBWI, BF.A, BF.B, BLFY, BLLN, BTE, BULL, BWMN, CBRL, CCRN, CDLX, CHPT, CIX, CLRB, CPHI, CSTE, CUB, CULP, CYN, DAKT, DY, EARN, EC, EDIT, EHAB, EWCZ, EYE, EYPT, FLYE, FRGE, FRPH, GENI, GO, GPGI, GPRK, HDSN, HLLY, HYFM, HYMC, ICCC, ICLR, IPI, JBI, KB, KMDA, LINK, LPSN, LUNG, MEI, MG, MLR, MLYS, MRAM, MVIS, MX, NAGE, NC, NCSM, NEXN, NGD, NNBR, OABI, OCGN, OFLX, OKTA, OLP, OOMA, OPFI, PAGS, PCSC, PFSA, PKOH, RDVT, REAX, REI, REPX, RGTI, RJET, RSKD, SBXD, SEG, SES, SGHT, SLNG, SMRT, SMSI, SNBR, STEM, STUB, STVN, SVCO, TARA, TCRX, TPVG, TSE, UCFI, VBNK, VCIC, VEEV, VET, VINP, VIVS, VMD, VSTM, WBX, WF, WIX, XFLT, XTIA, YMM, ZBIO
- Ex-div:
AVT, BGC, CAKE, FOX, FOXA, LRCX, OBT, ODFL, PAHC, PEBK, PYPL, SHBI, WSC
- Economic events and announcements:
- API Weekly Crude Oil Stock (previous: 11.400M)
- FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks
- FOMC Member Williams Speaks
- IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (consensus: 50.1, previous: 48.8)
- Redbook (previous: 6.7%)
## Upcoming events for Thursday, March 5th
- Stock splits:
- DUST @ **1:10**
- JDST @ **1:20**
- HIBS @ **1:10**
- SOXS @ **1:20**
- TR @ **103:100**
- Expected earnings:
ACET, ACFN, AEYE, AKA, ALGS, ALNT, ALT, AMBQ, AMPX, AOUT, ASLE, ATHM, AVIR, BABA, BCIC, BDTX, BILI, BJ, BRLT, BURL, BVS, CANG, CCEC, CIEN, CLAR, CNQ, COO, COOK, COST, CRMT, CSAI, CTMX, CTNM, CV, DDL, DLNG, DOMO, DSGR, DTI, ELME, ERO, EVC, EVGN, FGBI, FHTX, FIZZ, FLL, FLYX, FNKO, FTCI, GAP, GDYN, GENK, GEVO, GHI, GOTU, GPRO, GREE, GRNT, GROV, GSL, GWH, GWRE, GWRS, HCM, HMR, III, IMA, IMPP, INUV, INV, IOT, ITRN, JCAP, JD, KIDZ, KR, KURA, KVHI, LBRX, LIMN, LODE, LOMA, LQDA, LWLG, LXRX, M, MCHX, MDWD, MEOH, MKTW, MLCI, MRVL, MYE, NEXM, NMAX, NOEM, NUTX, NX, NXTC, OLPX, OMDA, ONL, OPRX, ORKA, OWLT, PACK, PBFS, PBR, PBR.A, PDYN, PMTS, PROF, PROP, PRTH, PRTS, PSHG, PTRN, RAIN, RAND, RAPT, RBNE, REFR, RGNX, RNGR, RTO, SAMG, SLDB, SOBO, SOC, SSYS, SWBI, TEAD, TKC, TLSI, TOUR, TOVX, TRC, TTC, TTRX, UEIC, ULH, UROY, USAR, VOXR, VRME, VSCO, VTIX, VYNE, WLY, WLYB, WW, WYFI, XTNT
- Ex-div:
EXE, EXPE, FANG, HWC, JKHY, NRIM, ONB, QCOM, SLM, SLMBP, VNOM, WDC
- Economic events and announcements:
- ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (consensus: 49K, previous: 22K)
- Beige Book
- Crude Oil Imports (previous: 0.412M)
- Crude Oil Inventories (previous: 15.989M)
- Cushing Crude Oil Inventories (previous: 0.881M)
- Distillate Fuel Production (previous: -0.136M)
- EIA Refinery Crude Runs (previous: -0.416M)
- EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks (previous: 0.252M)
- EIA Weekly Refinery Utilization Rates (previous: -2.4%)
- Gasoline Inventories (previous: -1.011M)
- Gasoline Production (previous: -0.223M)
- Heating Oil Stockpiles (previous: -0.119M)
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity (previous: 57.4)
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (previous: 50.3)
- ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders (previous: 53.1)
- ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (consensus: 53.5, previous: 53.8)
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (previous: 66.6)
- MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (previous: 6.09%)
- MBA Mortgage Applications (previous: 0.4%)
- MBA Purchase Index (previous: 149.7)
- Mortgage Market Index (previous: 340.2)
- Mortgage Refinance Index (previous: 1,432.9)
- S&P Global Composite PMI (consensus: 52.3, previous: 52.3)
- S&P Global Services PMI (consensus: 52.3, previous: 52.3)
- Total Vehicle Sales (consensus: 15.20M, previous: 14.90M)
^^^^2026-03-02

GTLB is a tough one; it’s been murdered for weeks. TGT puts??

I think costcos gonna drop no matter how earnings are cuz its overvalued, TGT has a higher chance to go up even if no beat imo. The big movers are gonna be energy and tech most likely.