TGT
Target Corporation
stockNYSE

All your bear cases are just narratives. I made money on TGT thanks to ppl believing in dumb narratives that dont show up in the numbers.

First of all let me stress that the following short term catalyst are some that I am eying out as *potential* catalysts and not some that I necessarily expect to happen. Secondly, before turning all skeptical about the possibility of these happening please consider that everyone was saying the same thing about TGT stock six months ago and look at where it is today. Okay, so a lot of people are saying that if you buy Nike stock today you will have to be patient and consider it a long term investment that isn’t very likely to give good returns short term. While that could turn or to be true it’s also very possible that it could turn out to be incorrect. Here are some potential short term catalysts for a speedy recovery of Nike stock back to let’s say $40-45 in the next 1-3 months. **#1.** Maybe the move from $40 to $35 that happened prior to earnings was a pricing in of what turned out to be the reality of earnings when they were reported. Even if guidance was more cautious than officially expected from Wall Street analysts, perhaps the market wasn’t surprised by it. **#2.** The market sees that this was the final reset and the likelihood of more bad news to come is smaller than it was prior to earnings. Guidance was extremely cautious with eps in 2027 expected to be almost half what they were in 2026. If it’s unlikely Nike will disappoint but just do as well as expected and if ultimately the market expects Nike to turn things around 2-3 years from now, the stock might as well start to climb right now. **#3.** From March to August the stock hovered above $40 but close to it. From August to September it suddenly fell $5. Maybe it will re-test $40 soon. **#4.** Investor Day is coming up next month. Specifically, management says it will lay out a clearer long term growth algorithm at Investor Day. Historically, Investor Day is a day of bullish news. Look at ONON recently which had bearish earnings but then bullish investor day. Also, for Nike especially everyone is debating if Nike is truly becoming a smaller player or if it will return to its glory days somehow- if Nike shares ambitious financial targets for 2029 like On Running did, the stock could see a big relief rally. The mere possibility of that happening means the stock could climb right now because the event is next month. **#5** Tim Cook and/or Elliott Hill could purchase more shares soon. They both bought when the stock was in the $50-60 range and again when it was near $42. At $34 it’s plausible that they would buy again as they are more patient than the rest of us and if they feel the turnaround is eventually going to happen, they have nothing to worry about by buying now. **#6** Nike remains a giant. And its stock is cheaper than ever before. Even if its PE and forward PE especially is higher than most if not all peers, it’s still a lot lower than it’s been for Nike historically. At any given time, a big buyer like Bill Ackman may re-enter the stage. **#7** Macro could improve and make consumer stocks similar to NKE such as DKS, ONON, DECK, LULU (yes even LULU) and NKE itself jump 10-20 % in a few months. Oil prices could go down. Positive news in Iran. **#8** Next earnings in December probably has an extremely low bar. Management already reset expectations- now it may start beating them. **#9** North America continues outperforming. North American revenue rose 2% currency-neutral, with wholesale up 9% and footwear up 1%. It’s possible the market is digesting this news after the earnings report and realizing that if all is well in North America, eventually Europe and China will stabilize. In comparison, Lululemon reported Americas comparable sales down 12 % YoY. Not bad that Nike managed to do 2 % up in North America revenue. **#10** Gross margins keep surprising positively. Just one more thing the market could be paying too little attention to right now but may realize in coming months and maybe Investor Day will make it clearer next month. **#11** Holiday/consumer data comes in better than feared. **#12** The market sees Pace not as a necessary cost cutting story but as an aggressive move to fix the cost structure. Investor Day could change sentiment about Pace. **#13** New product launches like the Caitlin Clark shoes and the Alphafly 4 which launches this month could be successful and change sentiment for the stock- Caitlin Clark release sold out really fast.

DMCC stock Analysis - TGT 413

Winter coming, so many people gonna be sitting inside watching NFLX... Holiday coming so many people buying from WMT because TGT is too expensive now...