SOFR
Amplify Samsung SOFR ETF
stock NYSE ETF

Considering the symbol, I am guessing it’s a 3M term SOFR swap.

Exhibit A
CRWV agreed to pay a much higher interest rate, making the loan significantly more expensive. The spread widened roughly 100 basis points to SOFR + 550, and the loan was discounted to around 96 cents — a four-point cut. The Financial Times pegged the all-in yield at roughly 9%. That’s a junk-grade cost of capital for a company that, months earlier, had raised GPU-backed money at investment-grade rates.
The lenders demanded stronger protection. They imposed a cash lockbox — meaning the cash coming in from customer contracts has to go to paying down the debt first, before CoreWeave can touch it — plus a 1.35x debt-service-coverage covenant and full amortization, per Fitch and loan-market coverage. Translation: the lenders wanted a hand on the cash register.
Coreweave doesn't even own its revenue, the creditors do, they currently have negative operating margins and are going toe to toe with cheap Chinese energy and a host of other neo cloud competitors and hyperscalers.
Furthermore what happens to their business model when the amortization hits and whatever revenue is left goes towards purchasing the latest gen of GPUs to remain competitive?
What happens if TPUs, XPUs and other custom silicon consume the majority of AI compute demand and GPU technology is relegated to frontier training?
They are in a very cap intensive business with structural weakness and direct competition from companies with the strongest balance sheets in the world and internal AI use cases.

**🔴**
**HIGH RISK remains — materially worse in credit + equity internals**
This **does meet the alert threshold**. The classification stays **HIGH RISK**, but deterioration is becoming broader rather than remaining a sovereign-bond story.
The clearest change since the prior check is the combination of **another credit-spread widening + a sharp worsening in U.S. market breadth**, while long Treasuries again touched new multi-decade yield highs.
**Cluster**
**Latest read**
**Change**
**U.S. sovereign / term premium**
10Y touched **5.342%**, 30Y **5.683%**, before easing to \~5.28% / 5.63%. The 2Y is nearer **4.87%**, so the long end is steepening away from policy rates.
🔴 Still extreme
**Treasury auctions / issuance**
No new coupon auction today. Recent weak 5Y/7Y sequence remains unresolved. Treasury has a **$6B 10–20Y liquidity buyback later today**.
🔴 Active, no new failure yet
**Japan**
20Y \~**3.95–3.97%**, 30Y \~**4.19–4.20%**, 40Y \~**4.21–4.22%**; USD/JPY \~**158.1**.
🔴 Rates worse, but no carry unwind
**Funding plumbing**
Sep. 30 SOFR printed **3.90%**, essentially equal to IORB. I find no fresh verified repo/basis/cross-currency dislocation in this run.
🟢 Firebreak holding
**Credit**
HY OAS **308 → 312 bp**; CCC **1,157 → 1,179 bp**; IG remains **84 bp**.
🔴 **Worse again**
**Vol / equity internals**
NYSE: roughly **325 new lows vs 9 highs**; Nasdaq: **443 lows vs 54 highs**. VIX \~**16.3** and futures remain in contango.
🔴 **Materially worse breadth**
**Oil / macro**
Brent around **$98–99** after the prior >$100 spike.
🟢 Still below danger zone
**Monetary confidence**
Gold roughly **$4,150–4,200** while the dollar is firm/stronger.
🟢 Gold↑ + real yields↑ + USD↓ trigger absent
**Fiscal / liquidity**
Large issuance/TGA and weak long-duration appetite remain structural pressure; no fresh refunding change today.
🟠 Background
**What changed**
Credit has continued to transmit the rates shock. ICE/BofA’s latest September 30 readings show **HY OAS at 312 bp**, up from **308**, and **CCC at 1,179 bp**, up **22 bp in one session** and from **1,112 bp on September 24**. IG is unchanged at 84 bp.
More importantly, equity internals deteriorated significantly intraday. Roughly **325 NYSE stocks are making 52-week lows versus only nine highs**, while Nasdaq is around **443 lows versus 54 highs**. New lows have now exceeded highs for more than three weeks on both exchanges. This is meaningfully worse than the previous check and shows the rate/credit pressure spreading beneath the headline indexes.
Treasuries again tested fresh extremes: the 10Y reached **5.342%** and the 30Y **5.683%**, before buyers appeared and yields retreated somewhat. The important structural point remains that the long end is staying exceptionally high even after softer inflation data reduced near-term Fed-hike odds—consistent with fiscal/term-premium and duration-supply pressure rather than simply the expected Fed path.
Japan is also back near its super-long extremes: current indications put the 20Y near **3.97%**, 30Y around **4.20%**, and 40Y around **4.21%**. But USD/JPY near **158** means the yen is weakening, not surging; therefore Japanese repatriation/carry liquidation is **still not occurring**.
Two major systemic firebreaks still hold. First, the September 30 SOFR fixing was **3.90%**, versus approximately **3.90% IORB**, so quarter-end repo pricing did not show a broad scarcity event. Second, VIX is only around **16**, with October and November futures roughly **17.7 and 18.4**, leaving the curve in contango rather than backwardation.
Oil has also backed away: Brent is near **$98–99**, well below your **$115–120** macro-shock threshold. That prevents the energy/inflation channel from becoming the sixth active cluster for now.
**Current transmission path**
The chain is now:
**global term-premium / fiscal stress → long Treasury & JGB yields ↑ → financing costs ↑ → CCC/HY spreads widen → broad equity participation collapses**
The missing systemic step remains:
**repo/basis stress → volatility backwardation → forced deleveraging → yen carry unwind.**
So I still count **5 independent active clusters**:
**sovereign duration + Treasury absorption + Japan + credit + equity internals = HIGH RISK.**
A move to **CRITICAL** would now require a sixth channel—most credibly **HY accelerating through \~325–350 bp**, VIX **>25 with backwardation**, persistent SOFR > IORB / meaningful SRF usage, clear Treasury-market funding dysfunction, Brent surging back toward **$115+**, or USD/JPY collapsing toward **153–150**.
**Bottom line:** **HIGH RISK remains, but the setup has materially worsened because credit and breadth are now deteriorating together while long sovereign yields remain at extreme levels. Funding and volatility are still preventing this from becoming a full systemic-dislocation signal.**

yeah that was my point, badly worded. I don't know of a free one that's genuinely live. closest I've used is CME's SOFR futures strip, the delayed quotes are free on their site and they give you most of the short end. proper live swap quotes are behind Bloomberg or ICE as far as I know.

SOFR is litteraly an OIS
But Im looking for a website that displays near live SOFR swap rates

in USD what you want is just called SOFR swaps now, that is the OIS curve since libor went away, so search that instead of OIS and a lot more turns up. Chatham Financial has a free page with the SOFR swap curve, updated daily rather than live but fine for most uses. for EUR the same trick, look for €STR swaps.

Tradingview's got a decent free tier for this, you can pull up OIS rates there if you dig into their economic indicators. Not quite as slick as the IRS page on [investing.com](http://investing.com) but it works. Also worth checking the CME and NY Fed sites directly, they sometimes publish daily SOFR/OIS rates with minimal lag.

We have two major events today- PCE and MU earnings - but let’s start with yesterday’s comments from Fed’s Williams, who was one of the officials that helped push rate expectations higher after saying there was still “a lot of work to do” on inflation and that another hike this year was a reasonable expectation.
Yesterday he took some of the heat out of that move, saying there is “no need for urgency” and that his base case is for one further hike late this year if the economy evolves as expected. That triggered a quick repricing in the rates market, with hike odds moving back toward about 42% from 68-ish
https://preview.redd.it/a4jdgcgzcnsh1.png?width=1035&format=png&auto=webp&s=161274d3f2dd864d6a9d298947efeeb28ed8c5ca
while SOFR futures rallied. The bullish SOFR options flow we have been following has therefore continued to move in the right direction. In a scenario in which flows were more supportive, this would have likely led to a more sustained momentum in equities, but as you know, flows are not supportive .
https://preview.redd.it/otr24io5dnsh1.png?width=742&format=png&auto=webp&s=cdc3c6a97c9223019955a0cc3c03e3ed02f67e09
https://preview.redd.it/smam0f06dnsh1.png?width=605&format=png&auto=webp&s=da831bfce38297f2654d2d6eca3f0383955c101b
What needs to be noted here is that he mentioned “timelier return” to the Fed’s 2% target twice in the same speech and what probably happened at the Sep meeting to turn a dove like Williams was likely a collective agreement then for timilier return to target
On to the PCE
A very important part of today’s PCE is the annual revision as core is likely to get revised down around 20bps as a result of the newly adopbed methodology for its calculation. This will produce a softer-looking historical inflation trajectory and could lead to a quick spike higher in equities
If you’ve been reading my analysis, you know i’ve been expecting moderation in the core PCE and today I still expect 0.2–0.25% core m/m and not another major inflation acceleration. Above 0.4% will clearly mean I am wrong and be a hotter inflation and hit equities and bonds.. 0.3 is more or less in line with consensus.:
https://preview.redd.it/pevl1l27dnsh1.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=d4d4a197006159e393d0498e745f6c30b7ccb0c4
MU earnings - options market is pricing about 8% move in either direction which brings us to a range of about 980 to 1150. While this is a rather large swing, MU tends to swing more than that
|**Earnings date**|**Implied move**|**Next-day price change**|
|:-|:-|:-|
|**Jun. 24, 2026**|±9.4%|**16.00%**|
|**Mar. 18, 2026**|±6.6%|**-4.00%**|
|**Dec. 17, 2025**|±7.6%|**10.20%**|
|**Sep. 23, 2025**|±8.6%|**-3.00%**|
|**Jun. 25, 2025**|±6.8%|**-1.00%**|
|**Mar. 20, 2025**|±8.9%|**-8.00%**|
|**Dec. 18, 2024**|±10.9%|**-16.00%**|
|**Sep. 25, 2024**|±8.5%|**15.00%**|
Currently consensus is at about 51b of revenue and 31.50 eps, but I expect rev to come in closer to 52b as there have been more reports that AI server pricing in Q3 has been above expectations and this rev should come in higher.
Consensus has FY28 EPS at about $180, with margins of 80%+. FY27 is already $160. The stock is $1070. That’s about 7x forward earnings. .
https://preview.redd.it/x17ethdbdnsh1.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=805f0ce4f806223df189d68f2c62e750f808ee30
basically the question is 80%+ margins is peak or still early to fade,. You can see from the gross margin chart what is the market is currently pricing
https://preview.redd.it/89cxta3cdnsh1.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=826114cd836a26de333b5e27806fa170e46cd1f4
In terms of positioning the market is going in quite bullish into the earnings with exposure all the way up to $1200. For now, the main bullish target is $1100 with support at $1000 . Exposure drops of below $900 so that should be a bottom if there’s a major disappointment.
https://preview.redd.it/6zb6yvzcdnsh1.png?width=499&format=png&auto=webp&s=07a3c2c6395dbdeb9fb86b9b6f6b91c34a3a917f
Prediction markets are pricing a beat for now but do note that volumes are on the lower side. Will check prior to earnings again
https://preview.redd.it/yrumglyddnsh1.png?width=1035&format=png&auto=webp&s=fd93983e321b44a45ee64b2256f364407d2e7c42
SPY remains in a negative vol regime and positioning is leaning bearish as indicated from the market positioning nodes pointing left with 760 being the first support which could get tagged on the PCE. 750 in case of a major surprise
https://preview.redd.it/y3cilz9fdnsh1.png?width=747&format=png&auto=webp&s=2f0cf7cd5b705688190da8b180d57f69d620dacd
QQQs short dated flows are looking more defensive but gradually improving as we increase the dte window. 740 is the main resistance but do note when we have events such as PCE and high-impact earnings these levels can easily be invalidated in case of a surprise.
https://preview.redd.it/b5roj3ggdnsh1.png?width=745&format=png&auto=webp&s=59a47e21e82d69a9dc3f4f3efd4950417389d4a6
On the VIX there is quite a bit of hedging going on as you can see from the nodes pointing left, but this is fairly normal given that we are going into PCE
https://preview.redd.it/hcojzvchdnsh1.png?width=491&format=png&auto=webp&s=2fc43715e6d70fcb0f83e5dbd2bccf79fd8287bd