SOFR
Amplify Samsung SOFR ETF
stock NYSE ETF

Yesterday I explained why I am starting to turn more constructive after spending most of September in a sell-into-rallies stance and the main point is that several of the headwinds we have been tracking are now starting to ease, while positioning has become cleaner and earnings are coming back into focus.
That does not mean I expect the market to go straight up from here and we can absolutely still get some weakness early in the q, but I will look at that weakness as an opportunity rather than a reason to step away.
If we get it, I want to use it to add to core longs, and stocks where positioning supports it and and earnings can drive the next move.
And earnings are becoming increasingly important here because individual companies are starting to take back control of the price action.
S&P 500 Q3 EPS estimates have increased about 2.1% over the past two months, versus a median decline of around 1.9% over the same pre-earnings window since 2000. Only around a quarter of earnings seasons have seen estimates rise at all, and this is now the fifth consecutive quarter where estimates have been revised higher heading into earnings.
Consensus is now looking for roughly 27% year-over-year EPS growth in Q3 and that follows 20% growth in Q1 versus an 11% bar and around 32% in Q2 versus a 22% bar after adjusting for one-offs.
The important part is that expectations have moved higher, but companies have still continued to clear them by a pretty wide margin.
https://preview.redd.it/jfzz3yizx0th1.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=daa59ae47461a42d586956c9f12a26d58598d78e
Yesterday I also mentioned valuations becoming more attractive as part of the bullish thesis, particularly across semiconductors as you can see from this chart
https://preview.redd.it/5jewj3a0y0th1.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=49704741fe8fcc1a54f4b81fc209db70f2ff08ca
If you look at South Korean exports, there is still very little evidence that AI spending is slowing down and istorically the relationship between those exports and SMH/SOXX has been quite strong, but that relationship has recently slowed down as a result of the macro and flow headwinds we have been discussing all month.
https://preview.redd.it/4zwritz0y0th1.png?width=564&format=png&auto=webp&s=4d3855ffb5f7591ed8374a60e7fee502cf6bbcc7
So if those headwinds continue to ease, semiconductors still have some catching up to do.
Note that we are also basically moving back towards more of a stock picker's market, especially after the poor performance from last month
The average S&P 500 stock is pricing roughly 33% one-month implied volatility versus just 12% for the index. In other words, the index itself looks relatively calm, but underneath the surface individual stocks are still moving considerably more.
https://preview.redd.it/t68ctlu1y0th1.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=5ed91244a1d5dc0c6395025d1433bbf5ac4b7952
September has also historically been a low point for dispersion, with it usually starting to pick back up through October and November as earnings and year-end flows come into play.
So while index volatility has normalized, the opportunity set underneath the index remains …richer.
What I also wanted to note is that the market does not seem to be pricing any fear event across the MAG7 ,which are a major factor, if you look at the implied move
https://preview.redd.it/5hpa2rnky0th1.png?width=680&format=png&auto=webp&s=8144af71cfc69b2f6f92e809565d897d590d5d98
Yesterday I also mentioned that hedge funds have reduced some of their basis trade exposure, which frees up balance sheet and creates more capacity to deploy if opportunities emerge. With dispersion starting to pick up again, single stocks are one obvious place where that opportunity set is becoming more interesting.
Corporate buybacks are still not providing much support right now, as most companies remain inside earnings blackout periods.
But that starts improving after roughly October 15 and accelerates into November, which tends to be one of the strongest months for buybacks.
So another important source of demand should gradually start coming back into the market.
https://preview.redd.it/n7mya3o2y0th1.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=f23afdeeab3d9b68dea5f96d6f08ff0708624bb8
CTAs have also removed some exposure and moved from a fairly crowded long towards below neutral.
https://preview.redd.it/yqwfw1x3y0th1.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=ff7626e39235eb5d97e3ef4696f3e8e2dbb34055
That is important because it means there is now considerably more capacity to increase exposure again if the market starts trending higher.
On the seasonality side, I wanted to share one more chart because there is an important nuance here.
October and November are generally strong months, but that does not mean we necessarily go straight up from [here.In](http://here.in/) 14 out of the past 24 midterm years, the low for the quarter was actually made in October.
https://preview.redd.it/3d055wv4y0th1.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=be4fff2ed957a58d9f69a34f5ddc5db30548435b
That is why I am not full risk-on. I am cautiously bullish, but I am deliberately leaving some capacity available because we could still get another bout of weakness first.
And if we do, I would increasingly view it as a buy-the-dip opportunity rather than something that changes the broader thesis.
So after spending most of September in a sell-into-rallies stance, I am now becoming more constructive into Q4.
I also wanted to comment on the august jobs and that the growth looks stronger than it really was last month
Headlinecame in at 162K, but that number was helped by unusually favourable seasonal adjustments and on an unadjusted basis, the economy added around 154K jobs, which is much closer to the pace we were seeing in 2025.
This is the important part - if you apply last year’s seasonal factor, August payroll growth would have been closer to just 15K.
So the headline is solid, but underneath it the labour market is considerably and we could see revisions.
https://preview.redd.it/3n7szuu5y0th1.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=a8e2f6fa0122e009527e1eb03dbfb0a114a25958
And a final chart of the SOFR starting to climb higher (yields falling) as Jefferson urged patience for another hike, showing that the bullish SOFR flows I pointed out in the prev analysis were indeed worth tracking
https://preview.redd.it/nx6wqyk6y0th1.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=d5653f9719f56394cf699005945afdb53eb981a1
The setup is improving as q end pressure is behind us, positioning is cleaner, earnings remain strong, buybacks should start coming back later this month and there is still plenty of movement underneath the index for stock picking.
That does not remove the risk of another pullback, which is exactly why I am not chasing and why I am keeping some dry powder.
My 8,000 year-end target remains in place, with 8,300 as the more optimistic scenario.
On the shorter term trades, yesterday I managed to enter long SPY at $760 as per monday's analysis and QQQs at $740. will trim most of this short-term position prior to the NFPs and likely leave 30-ish percent of it through the jobs data release
SPY positioning is continuing to imporve for now with $770 remaining the main hurdle; support at $760, but given the reaction yday, a big part of the epxposure is likely hedged and we could see it break towards the key level at 750 where I'll likely be stepping in.
https://preview.redd.it/b9o2vi28y0th1.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=b3f67792a5a04e081fd9efd4f27685c9599a11f9
QQQ positioning is still better with exposure being built at the $760 strike. If payrols come in hotter, I'll be looking to swing from $730
https://preview.redd.it/ceicf1s8y0th1.png?width=894&format=png&auto=webp&s=da8daeaa679b4b468d24b2cf998791b59e504e8a
TLDR - I am cautiously bullish into Q4 and if volatility picks up over the next few weeks and we get another dip, I will be looking to use it to add rather than step away as the risk reward is much more favourbale.

Considering the symbol, I am guessing it’s a 3M term SOFR swap.

Exhibit A
CRWV agreed to pay a much higher interest rate, making the loan significantly more expensive. The spread widened roughly 100 basis points to SOFR + 550, and the loan was discounted to around 96 cents — a four-point cut. The Financial Times pegged the all-in yield at roughly 9%. That’s a junk-grade cost of capital for a company that, months earlier, had raised GPU-backed money at investment-grade rates.
The lenders demanded stronger protection. They imposed a cash lockbox — meaning the cash coming in from customer contracts has to go to paying down the debt first, before CoreWeave can touch it — plus a 1.35x debt-service-coverage covenant and full amortization, per Fitch and loan-market coverage. Translation: the lenders wanted a hand on the cash register.
Coreweave doesn't even own its revenue, the creditors do, they currently have negative operating margins and are going toe to toe with cheap Chinese energy and a host of other neo cloud competitors and hyperscalers.
Furthermore what happens to their business model when the amortization hits and whatever revenue is left goes towards purchasing the latest gen of GPUs to remain competitive?
What happens if TPUs, XPUs and other custom silicon consume the majority of AI compute demand and GPU technology is relegated to frontier training?
They are in a very cap intensive business with structural weakness and direct competition from companies with the strongest balance sheets in the world and internal AI use cases.

**🔴**
**HIGH RISK remains — materially worse in credit + equity internals**
This **does meet the alert threshold**. The classification stays **HIGH RISK**, but deterioration is becoming broader rather than remaining a sovereign-bond story.
The clearest change since the prior check is the combination of **another credit-spread widening + a sharp worsening in U.S. market breadth**, while long Treasuries again touched new multi-decade yield highs.
**Cluster**
**Latest read**
**Change**
**U.S. sovereign / term premium**
10Y touched **5.342%**, 30Y **5.683%**, before easing to \~5.28% / 5.63%. The 2Y is nearer **4.87%**, so the long end is steepening away from policy rates.
🔴 Still extreme
**Treasury auctions / issuance**
No new coupon auction today. Recent weak 5Y/7Y sequence remains unresolved. Treasury has a **$6B 10–20Y liquidity buyback later today**.
🔴 Active, no new failure yet
**Japan**
20Y \~**3.95–3.97%**, 30Y \~**4.19–4.20%**, 40Y \~**4.21–4.22%**; USD/JPY \~**158.1**.
🔴 Rates worse, but no carry unwind
**Funding plumbing**
Sep. 30 SOFR printed **3.90%**, essentially equal to IORB. I find no fresh verified repo/basis/cross-currency dislocation in this run.
🟢 Firebreak holding
**Credit**
HY OAS **308 → 312 bp**; CCC **1,157 → 1,179 bp**; IG remains **84 bp**.
🔴 **Worse again**
**Vol / equity internals**
NYSE: roughly **325 new lows vs 9 highs**; Nasdaq: **443 lows vs 54 highs**. VIX \~**16.3** and futures remain in contango.
🔴 **Materially worse breadth**
**Oil / macro**
Brent around **$98–99** after the prior >$100 spike.
🟢 Still below danger zone
**Monetary confidence**
Gold roughly **$4,150–4,200** while the dollar is firm/stronger.
🟢 Gold↑ + real yields↑ + USD↓ trigger absent
**Fiscal / liquidity**
Large issuance/TGA and weak long-duration appetite remain structural pressure; no fresh refunding change today.
🟠 Background
**What changed**
Credit has continued to transmit the rates shock. ICE/BofA’s latest September 30 readings show **HY OAS at 312 bp**, up from **308**, and **CCC at 1,179 bp**, up **22 bp in one session** and from **1,112 bp on September 24**. IG is unchanged at 84 bp.
More importantly, equity internals deteriorated significantly intraday. Roughly **325 NYSE stocks are making 52-week lows versus only nine highs**, while Nasdaq is around **443 lows versus 54 highs**. New lows have now exceeded highs for more than three weeks on both exchanges. This is meaningfully worse than the previous check and shows the rate/credit pressure spreading beneath the headline indexes.
Treasuries again tested fresh extremes: the 10Y reached **5.342%** and the 30Y **5.683%**, before buyers appeared and yields retreated somewhat. The important structural point remains that the long end is staying exceptionally high even after softer inflation data reduced near-term Fed-hike odds—consistent with fiscal/term-premium and duration-supply pressure rather than simply the expected Fed path.
Japan is also back near its super-long extremes: current indications put the 20Y near **3.97%**, 30Y around **4.20%**, and 40Y around **4.21%**. But USD/JPY near **158** means the yen is weakening, not surging; therefore Japanese repatriation/carry liquidation is **still not occurring**.
Two major systemic firebreaks still hold. First, the September 30 SOFR fixing was **3.90%**, versus approximately **3.90% IORB**, so quarter-end repo pricing did not show a broad scarcity event. Second, VIX is only around **16**, with October and November futures roughly **17.7 and 18.4**, leaving the curve in contango rather than backwardation.
Oil has also backed away: Brent is near **$98–99**, well below your **$115–120** macro-shock threshold. That prevents the energy/inflation channel from becoming the sixth active cluster for now.
**Current transmission path**
The chain is now:
**global term-premium / fiscal stress → long Treasury & JGB yields ↑ → financing costs ↑ → CCC/HY spreads widen → broad equity participation collapses**
The missing systemic step remains:
**repo/basis stress → volatility backwardation → forced deleveraging → yen carry unwind.**
So I still count **5 independent active clusters**:
**sovereign duration + Treasury absorption + Japan + credit + equity internals = HIGH RISK.**
A move to **CRITICAL** would now require a sixth channel—most credibly **HY accelerating through \~325–350 bp**, VIX **>25 with backwardation**, persistent SOFR > IORB / meaningful SRF usage, clear Treasury-market funding dysfunction, Brent surging back toward **$115+**, or USD/JPY collapsing toward **153–150**.
**Bottom line:** **HIGH RISK remains, but the setup has materially worsened because credit and breadth are now deteriorating together while long sovereign yields remain at extreme levels. Funding and volatility are still preventing this from becoming a full systemic-dislocation signal.**

yeah that was my point, badly worded. I don't know of a free one that's genuinely live. closest I've used is CME's SOFR futures strip, the delayed quotes are free on their site and they give you most of the short end. proper live swap quotes are behind Bloomberg or ICE as far as I know.

SOFR is litteraly an OIS
But Im looking for a website that displays near live SOFR swap rates

in USD what you want is just called SOFR swaps now, that is the OIS curve since libor went away, so search that instead of OIS and a lot more turns up. Chatham Financial has a free page with the SOFR swap curve, updated daily rather than live but fine for most uses. for EUR the same trick, look for €STR swaps.

Tradingview's got a decent free tier for this, you can pull up OIS rates there if you dig into their economic indicators. Not quite as slick as the IRS page on [investing.com](http://investing.com) but it works. Also worth checking the CME and NY Fed sites directly, they sometimes publish daily SOFR/OIS rates with minimal lag.

We have two major events today- PCE and MU earnings - but let’s start with yesterday’s comments from Fed’s Williams, who was one of the officials that helped push rate expectations higher after saying there was still “a lot of work to do” on inflation and that another hike this year was a reasonable expectation.
Yesterday he took some of the heat out of that move, saying there is “no need for urgency” and that his base case is for one further hike late this year if the economy evolves as expected. That triggered a quick repricing in the rates market, with hike odds moving back toward about 42% from 68-ish
https://preview.redd.it/a4jdgcgzcnsh1.png?width=1035&format=png&auto=webp&s=161274d3f2dd864d6a9d298947efeeb28ed8c5ca
while SOFR futures rallied. The bullish SOFR options flow we have been following has therefore continued to move in the right direction. In a scenario in which flows were more supportive, this would have likely led to a more sustained momentum in equities, but as you know, flows are not supportive .
https://preview.redd.it/otr24io5dnsh1.png?width=742&format=png&auto=webp&s=cdc3c6a97c9223019955a0cc3c03e3ed02f67e09
https://preview.redd.it/smam0f06dnsh1.png?width=605&format=png&auto=webp&s=da831bfce38297f2654d2d6eca3f0383955c101b
What needs to be noted here is that he mentioned “timelier return” to the Fed’s 2% target twice in the same speech and what probably happened at the Sep meeting to turn a dove like Williams was likely a collective agreement then for timilier return to target
On to the PCE
A very important part of today’s PCE is the annual revision as core is likely to get revised down around 20bps as a result of the newly adopbed methodology for its calculation. This will produce a softer-looking historical inflation trajectory and could lead to a quick spike higher in equities
If you’ve been reading my analysis, you know i’ve been expecting moderation in the core PCE and today I still expect 0.2–0.25% core m/m and not another major inflation acceleration. Above 0.4% will clearly mean I am wrong and be a hotter inflation and hit equities and bonds.. 0.3 is more or less in line with consensus.:
https://preview.redd.it/pevl1l27dnsh1.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=d4d4a197006159e393d0498e745f6c30b7ccb0c4
MU earnings - options market is pricing about 8% move in either direction which brings us to a range of about 980 to 1150. While this is a rather large swing, MU tends to swing more than that
|**Earnings date**|**Implied move**|**Next-day price change**|
|:-|:-|:-|
|**Jun. 24, 2026**|±9.4%|**16.00%**|
|**Mar. 18, 2026**|±6.6%|**-4.00%**|
|**Dec. 17, 2025**|±7.6%|**10.20%**|
|**Sep. 23, 2025**|±8.6%|**-3.00%**|
|**Jun. 25, 2025**|±6.8%|**-1.00%**|
|**Mar. 20, 2025**|±8.9%|**-8.00%**|
|**Dec. 18, 2024**|±10.9%|**-16.00%**|
|**Sep. 25, 2024**|±8.5%|**15.00%**|
Currently consensus is at about 51b of revenue and 31.50 eps, but I expect rev to come in closer to 52b as there have been more reports that AI server pricing in Q3 has been above expectations and this rev should come in higher.
Consensus has FY28 EPS at about $180, with margins of 80%+. FY27 is already $160. The stock is $1070. That’s about 7x forward earnings. .
https://preview.redd.it/x17ethdbdnsh1.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=805f0ce4f806223df189d68f2c62e750f808ee30
basically the question is 80%+ margins is peak or still early to fade,. You can see from the gross margin chart what is the market is currently pricing
https://preview.redd.it/89cxta3cdnsh1.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=826114cd836a26de333b5e27806fa170e46cd1f4
In terms of positioning the market is going in quite bullish into the earnings with exposure all the way up to $1200. For now, the main bullish target is $1100 with support at $1000 . Exposure drops of below $900 so that should be a bottom if there’s a major disappointment.
https://preview.redd.it/6zb6yvzcdnsh1.png?width=499&format=png&auto=webp&s=07a3c2c6395dbdeb9fb86b9b6f6b91c34a3a917f
Prediction markets are pricing a beat for now but do note that volumes are on the lower side. Will check prior to earnings again
https://preview.redd.it/yrumglyddnsh1.png?width=1035&format=png&auto=webp&s=fd93983e321b44a45ee64b2256f364407d2e7c42
SPY remains in a negative vol regime and positioning is leaning bearish as indicated from the market positioning nodes pointing left with 760 being the first support which could get tagged on the PCE. 750 in case of a major surprise
https://preview.redd.it/y3cilz9fdnsh1.png?width=747&format=png&auto=webp&s=2f0cf7cd5b705688190da8b180d57f69d620dacd
QQQs short dated flows are looking more defensive but gradually improving as we increase the dte window. 740 is the main resistance but do note when we have events such as PCE and high-impact earnings these levels can easily be invalidated in case of a surprise.
https://preview.redd.it/b5roj3ggdnsh1.png?width=745&format=png&auto=webp&s=59a47e21e82d69a9dc3f4f3efd4950417389d4a6
On the VIX there is quite a bit of hedging going on as you can see from the nodes pointing left, but this is fairly normal given that we are going into PCE
https://preview.redd.it/hcojzvchdnsh1.png?width=491&format=png&auto=webp&s=2fc43715e6d70fcb0f83e5dbd2bccf79fd8287bd