RBA
RB Global, Inc.
stock NYSE

Been running a macro scoring system for a while now and AUD is sitting at 68/100 while CAD just keeps deteriorating — 41/100, inflation down to 1.8% and below target with a dovish trend building, COT starting to show short positioning building up on the loonie. Meanwhile the RBA is actually in a hiking cycle, rates at 4.10% vs a G7 average somewhere around 2.4%, and inflation still running hot enough to keep them uncomfortable. The fundamental picture here isn't subtle.
On the chart, AUDCAD put in L275 at 0.9504 and bounced to H276 at 0.98047, then pulled back into the discount zone which is basically where I want to be buying. Price is reacting around 0.974 right now but I'm actually looking to get long closer to 0.96296 if it dips back into that demand area — stop goes at 0.95678 below the zone. The continuation rate on this structure is around 68% and historically when price retests these zones it bounces about 70% of the time, with the follow-through BOS happening roughly 65% of the time after that. Not life-changing odds but combined with the macro picture I'm comfortable with the setup.
Plan is to split it three ways — taking 50% off at 0.98047 which is roughly the 1x extension, another 30% at 0.99503 (1.83x), and letting the last 20% ride to 1.01976 if the trend really extends. The 3.24x extension target isn't something I'd bet the whole position on but it's happened historically often enough to justify keeping a small piece running. I might be a bit early on the entry timing but the macro thesis doesn't really change whether I get filled this week or next, and the structure invalidates cleanly below the stop.
We'll see how it plays out — price could easily chop around in this zone for a while before committing.

Been running a macro scoring system for a while now and AUD is sitting at 68/100 while CAD just keeps deteriorating — 41/100, inflation down to 1.8% and below target with a dovish trend building, COT starting to show short positioning building up on the loonie. Meanwhile the RBA is actually in a hiking cycle, rates at 4.10% vs a G7 average somewhere around 2.4%, and inflation still running hot enough to keep them uncomfortable. The fundamental picture here isn't subtle.
On the chart, AUDCAD put in L275 at 0.9504 and bounced to H276 at 0.98047, then pulled back into the discount zone which is basically where I want to be buying. Price is reacting around 0.974 right now but I'm actually looking to get long closer to 0.96296 if it dips back into that demand area — stop goes at 0.95678 below the zone. The continuation rate on this structure is around 68% and historically when price retests these zones it bounces about 70% of the time, with the follow-through BOS happening roughly 65% of the time after that. Not life-changing odds but combined with the macro picture I'm comfortable with the setup.
Plan is to split it three ways — taking 50% off at 0.98047 which is roughly the 1x extension, another 30% at 0.99503 (1.83x), and letting the last 20% ride to 1.01976 if the trend really extends. The 3.24x extension target isn't something I'd bet the whole position on but it's happened historically often enough to justify keeping a small piece running. I might be a bit early on the entry timing but the macro thesis doesn't really change whether I get filled this week or next, and the structure invalidates cleanly below the stop.
We'll see how it plays out — price could easily chop around in this zone for a while before committing.