GETY
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Here's my thesis: \*\*the price of Tesla stock is more important than its earnings\*\*.
Bias here: Huge Tesla Bear. I hate Elon both politically and as a human, I think Tesla makes good cars.
My list of winners I've picked correctly where I've made at least 50% in the last 24 months my money include (shorts with a (-) sign): PWRMF, ACMR, GOOGL, LAC, SIVR, SPOT, RTX -BUMBL.
My list of losers that are down at least 20% in the last 24 months: PYPL, GETY, UBER, -PTON, -TSLA, -DJT.
To understand Tesla stock we need to understand asset classes as a whole. Think residential real estate and MBS. Think Bitcoin. Think gold. In stocks we claim this measure to be ETFs like VOO or SPY.
So, here's the problem: the dollar is losing value. You can measure this against other currencies, or bitcoin or any metric. We are printing money and growing out debt and inflation is happening and will continue to happen.
So rich people need to hedge against this. Gold is up 114% and silver 116% in the last years. At the same time, Bitcoin is up 104%. Real estate fairly flat (after double digit gains in 2021 and 2022) but still. up around 6-8% over the same time period. SPY is up 46.4% over the same time period.
So when all assets are up, and inflation is up, its not just performance driving the price.

Among these asset classes, the stock market the best combination of liquid, tax-favorable, legal and safe. No one puts their 401k in gold, bitcoin is quasi legal still and real estate is very illiquid. What Obama learned and then Biden and Trump is that stonks needs to always go up. In our K shaped economy, it's no longer unemployment or inflation as the Fed's dual mandate claims, but keep the stock market smooth and you will get credit for keeping things smooth. Through bank bailouts, auto bail outs, mortgage meltdowns, Covid, tariffs, war, WHO GIVES AF. The wealthiest 10% own 50% of the stock market and they need to keep their wealth compounding to keep their donations flowing. \*\*We will print money, we will take part ownership in companies, we will buy bad loans, we literally do fking anything other than let the stock market go down.\*\*
Now here's the question: What IS the stock market? Typically the largest and wealthiest funds take giant stakes in Blue chip companies and broad based ETS. But what do you do when automation/stagflation is muting dividends and small returns of mature industrials and the Mag7 hot tech stocks represent 35% of the entire S&P.
If you're say a president who's obsessed with the stock market, and is known for transactional dealings and favorable deals to friends, and you want to keep the stock market afloat, what is easier - to keep buoying a small number of really big stocks or try and do an FDR style new deal to drive the engine of commerce and lift all boats with a rising tide? It's waaaay easier to just say "Hey Jensen, hey Elon, lets make these deals".
If you're a crony with money, whose entire wealth and livelihood depends on your assets under management increasing, same question. Now if you two team up together? Institutional fund diamond hands means government contracts and favorable tax deals.
\*\*It's all a long way of saying Tesla (and Mag7 broadly) have become too big too fail. I\*\*f we bailed out fucking Ford and GM because of auto jobs in detroit you can bet your ass we will bail out every Americans 401k, all of which rely on Mag7. The only reason the other companies in Mag7 haven't been exposed is that they actually increase profit and are worth the money. If tesla traded even at 2x the forward 12 month PE of its peers we'd see it lose 60% in market cap which would trigger a broad meltdown of the entire stock market and probably trigger a panic sell off.

\*\*So TL;DR -\*\* rich people need stocks to go up to keep their money safe from inflation. Telsa and Mag7 are needed to go up for this to happen, so the oligarchs and our government simply won't let them fail. Tesla is a store of value like bitcoin more than a stock that operates on fundamentals like P/E and earnings growth

Here's my thesis: \*\*the price of Tesla stock is more important than its earnings\*\*.
Bias here: Huge Tesla Bear. I hate Elon both politically and as a human, I think Tesla makes good cars.
My list of winners I've picked correctly where I've made at least 50% in the last 24 months my money include (shorts with a (-) sign): PWRMF, ACMR, GOOGL, LAC, SIVR, SPOT, RTX -BUMBL.
My list of losers that are down at least 20% in the last 24 months: PYPL, GETY, UBER, -PTON, -TSLA, -DJT.
To understand Tesla stock we need to understand asset classes as a whole. Think residential real estate and MBS. Think Bitcoin. Think gold. In stocks we claim this measure to be ETFs like VOO or SPY.
So, here's the problem: the dollar is losing value. You can measure this against other currencies, or bitcoin or any metric. We are printing money and growing out debt and inflation is happening and will continue to happen.
So rich people need to hedge against this. Gold is up 114% and silver 116% in the last years. At the same time, Bitcoin is up 104%. Real estate fairly flat (after double digit gains in 2021 and 2022) but still. up around 6-8% over the same time period. SPY is up 46.4% over the same time period.
So when all assets are up, and inflation is up, its not just performance driving the price.

Among these asset classes, the stock market the best combination of liquid, tax-favorable, legal and safe. No one puts their 401k in gold, bitcoin is quasi legal still and real estate is very illiquid. What Obama learned and then Biden and Trump is that stonks needs to always go up. In our K shaped economy, it's no longer unemployment or inflation as the Fed's dual mandate claims, but keep the stock market smooth and you will get credit for keeping things smooth. Through bank bailouts, auto bail outs, mortgage meltdowns, Covid, tariffs, war, WHO GIVES AF. The wealthiest 10% own 50% of the stock market and they need to keep their wealth compounding to keep their donations flowing. \*\*We will print money, we will take part ownership in companies, we will buy bad loans, we literally do fking anything other than let the stock market go down.\*\*
Now here's the question: What IS the stock market? Typically the largest and wealthiest funds take giant stakes in Blue chip companies and broad based ETS. But what do you do when automation/stagflation is muting dividends and small returns of mature industrials and the Mag7 hot tech stocks represent 35% of the entire S&P.
If you're say a president who's obsessed with the stock market, and is known for transactional dealings and favorable deals to friends, and you want to keep the stock market afloat, what is easier - to keep buoying a small number of really big stocks or try and do an FDR style new deal to drive the engine of commerce and lift all boats with a rising tide? It's waaaay easier to just say "Hey Jensen, hey Elon, lets make these deals".
If you're a crony with money, whose entire wealth and livelihood depends on your assets under management increasing, same question. Now if you two team up together? Institutional fund diamond hands means government contracts and favorable tax deals.
\*\*It's all a long way of saying Tesla (and Mag7 broadly) have become too big too fail. I\*\*f we bailed out fucking Ford and GM because of auto jobs in detroit you can bet your ass we will bail out every Americans 401k, all of which rely on Mag7. The only reason the other companies in Mag7 haven't been exposed is that they actually increase profit and are worth the money. If tesla traded even at 2x the forward 12 month PE of its peers we'd see it lose 60% in market cap which would trigger a broad meltdown of the entire stock market and probably trigger a panic sell off.

\*\*So TL;DR -\*\* rich people need stocks to go up to keep their money safe from inflation. Telsa and Mag7 are needed to go up for this to happen, so the oligarchs and our government simply won't let them fail. Tesla is a store of value like bitcoin more than a stock that operates on fundamentals like P/E and earnings growth