EV
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No, she didn’t have a point. The people who scoffed at 10% annually are the same people who make negative EV bets to get rich.

EV is already like $600m...

$52 billion of EV on $2.7 billion of last-twelve-month operating profit is the 19x you already wrote. The $640 million memory-and-tariff hit is about a quarter of that $2.7 billion, so the mid-cycle line is still carrying a squeeze. Switch 2 did 20 million units against a 15 million guide. Attach is 2.46 games per box. The first Switch ended around 10. The multiple looks cheap if attach walks from 2.46 toward that old 10. It does not look cheap if the movie line adds $400-500 million and attach stays here.

I haven’t looked at Nintendo for a couple of years but it doesn’t seem too high price right now and could be a decent growth runway as the game catalogue for switch 2 gets built out and the movie/media business grows.

Nintendo has a $64 billion market cap, $12 billion in net cash, and an EV of $52 billion.

It earned $2.7 billion in operating profit in the last 12 months. This might be a reasonable estimate of mid-cycle earnings. In the last peak in 2020-2021 it was earning more than $5 billion in operating profit. In the last trough, fiscal year ended March 2025, they earned $1.8 billion.

That 2020-2021 era is probably not going to repeat again. But now they have this movie/media business to put their IP to work, the switch 2 has been selling okay but faces some headwinds from memory prices, and game sales have been slow but the catalogue of games is still getting built out.

The movie/IP business seems like it has been going well, and might be a little less cyclical than the old console and game business. If they can start producing a couple of decent movies per year, I’m guessing the movie business could add something like $400-500 million to the operating income line.

The switch 2 sales have been roughly in line with projections. It launched in June 2025 and by March 2026 it had sold about 20 million units in the first fiscal year. This is better than the switch 1 did at a similar time point after its launch.

This was above Nintendo initial guidance for 15 million units.

The guidance is now for 16.5 million units in the fiscal year ended March 2027.

One problem has been the rising price of memory because of the AI boom. Another has been tariffs. Both of these make the switch 2 more expensive. Looks like these combined led to a $640 million hit on the operating income line.

Recently the stock was falling on these memory price concerns. For a while it looked like it was inversely correlated to the memory stocks.

It has started to bounce back a bit now. Memory pricing has stopping increasing at insane rates and is now just increasing at high rates.

But the switch doesn’t need super high end memory chips, and with China’s expanding supply of memory chips, I’d expect they will work out better memory prices in the next couple of years, at which point they could price the switch a little cheaper and get some more unit sales. I think this is a temporary problem not a permanent one.

The company got a tariff refund and it looks like Japan is probably going to get a fairly favorable trade deal with 15% or lower tariffs.

The game sales per console has been inching up from 2.18 in December to 2.45 in March and 2.46 in the last update from June 2026.

The original switch ultimately had around 10 games per console over a lifetime.

The catalogue for the switch 2 is still filling out so we’ll see how this goes as more titles come out.

The game sales are super high margin to the company. If we assume a total of 36 million units by March 2027 (19 million in the first year, 16.5 million in the second year), each 0.1 games per console equates to 3.6 million games.

Let’s assume around $70 per game, and let’s estimate 60% margin for first party games, and very little incremental operating cost per unit sold.

So each 0.1 games per console increase ought to be worth an extra $150 million that drops to the operating line.

If they can hit 3-4 games per console, that would be $750-$2250 million in additional operating income.

So you get something like 19x pretax operating earnings, which isn’t cheap, and game catalogue which might put it more like 15-16x forward operating earnings, or maybe lower if they hit it out of the park with their new game catalogue.

My question is does that look cheap? Is Nintendo a quality enough business to warrant this sort of multiple? Maybe…

Would also like to add that while P/S is not a very relevant metric for profitable companies such as Zoetis, the current TTM P/S ratio is around 3.3x, while historically its 10-year median is 9x.
The company currently trades at an EV/EBIT of 11.4x, while in the last 10 years it usually hovered around 25-30x, sometimes even trading at 45x (in 2021).

It's about probability, and whether you have an edge, a positive expected outcome, going in.
Gambling: the house has the positive expected value, the house always has the edge over time.
Trading: wagering on probabilistic outcomes where you have the positive expected outcome.
The way you've described your technique though, that's the problem. Looking at how a stock moved over the last few days or weeks and buying because it went up, hoping it keeps going, isn't an edge. It's not based on anything you could actually explain if someone asked "why did you expect that to work."
An edge means you can point to a reason the odds favour you, not just a direction it recently moved in. As described, that's speculation dressed up as analysis, so yeah, that's closer to gambling.
Worth adding too, even if you had a genuine edge and were consistently profitable, most non-traders would call it gambling anyway. That's a separate battle from whether it actually is one.
One caveat, I'm only answering the trading/EV side, not the religious side, I'm not qualified on that. From what I understand Islamic gambling isn't just about who has the positive expected value, it's more about excessive speculation and whether there's real analysis behind a decision or just pure chance, but I could be off on that. Probably lands in the same place here either way since there's not much analysis in the technique, but for the actual ruling I'd ask a scholar or an Islamic finance source rather than take my word for it.

~$12.5k after 40 years
That's what I paid for my 2020 Chevy Bolt EV with 30k miles earlier this year.

This will change. The quota system has a portion reserved for vehicles with sale prices below $35 K, with more and more quota reserved for this category as time goes on.
Before Canada slapped a 100% quota on Chinese imports of EV, most of the vehicles imported from China were Tesla, so it is no surprise that they take up a good proportion of the 49,000 quota subject to a 15% surtax. But the proportion is much lower than before and will continue to trend downward.

Tesla is considered American EV.
China is BYD.

Hi everyone, last Friday $XELB popped up on my screener so I decided to dig in it a little bit this weekend and tried to make a small DD about it and why I think it's a buy at this price.
**First, what Xcel Brands actually is**
Xcel Brands is a brand licensing company based in NY, founded in 2011 and run since inception by Robert D'Loren. It is not a retailer and not a manufacturer. It owns trademarks, licenses them to operating partners who handle design, production, and distribution, and collects the royalties.
There is no inventory, no factories, and no working capital tied up in product. The whole company runs on 15 employees.
The portfolio has been built by acquiring recognizable but underexploited names and putting them back into distribution. The anchor is Halston, whose trademarks Xcel bought in 2019 and then master-licensed to G-III Apparel Group in June 2023 under a 25 year agreement, a long-dated contracted royalty stream that today produces the majority of company revenue. Around it sit C Wonder, Longaberger, and a newer group of influencer founded brands: Tower Hill by Christie Brinkley, Trust. Respect. Love by Cesar Millan, and OFF/DUTY by Coco Rocha. Distribution skews toward interactive television (QVC and HSN, under the Qurate umbrella), livestream shopping, and social commerce rather than traditional wholesale.
**About the stock**
They are sitting around a $5.3M market cap, a 4.4M float and currently the price per share is \~$0.80. Insiders own almost 33% of the company.
**Their financials**
Q2 2026: net licensing revenue of $1.12M, improved their loss of $1.66 per share to $0.40, a huge improvement. CEO Robert D'Loren described it as the best quarter on an adjusted basis since June 2024. They are sitting on a $12M debt, and every single dollar goes to paying it, before investing it on other operations.
On valuation, using an annualized H1 run rate of about $4.5M in revenue, P/S is roughly 1.2x and enterprise value sits 3.8x sales. P/B is approximately 0.44x.
That price to book ratio, looks very small and really cheap, but you have to understand that the market is pricing those intangibles at less than half of carrying value for a reason. The Judith Ripka disposal in April 2026 fetched $2.3M in cash +an earn out, which is a real world data point on what these assets clear at in a motivated sale.
Also, their revenue concentration is a thing. The Halston master license produced 57% of quarterly revenue and Qurate agreements another 27%.
**Insider ownership**
Looking at it, the insider ownership at $XELB has always been meaningful, with D'Loren being the largest individual holder, this is a founder led company and not a shell run by hired managers. That's a huge positive point for me, even more in pennystocks. As I said before, they hold \~33% of the company.
**Technicals**
I mostly don't look at the technicals, but I wanted to put it in here in case anyone wanted to know it (AI helped me here):
>
**My investment thesis and why I think it's a buy**
1. The market cap is $5.3M **against stated equity of $12M and a portfolio of recognizable brands**.
2. Direct operating expenses **have been cut towards a run rate under $8M annually,** so the cost side has been genuinely attacked and cut down.
3. The licensing model is asset light. **New deals carry very little incremental costs, so revenue recovery would flow through hard**
4. **Their deal flow is REAL and recent.** EcoStrong for Cesar Millan's Trust. Respect. Love (June 11th), KBL Group for Coco Rocha's OFF/DUTY (July 6th), and J.Queen for Tower Hill by Christie Brinkley home decor (July 14).
5. With just a \~4M float and volume being this small, any genuine good news will move this stock violently.
**Catalysts and what would change my mind**
Q3 results in November are the next big event for this stock imo. I'm watching these two things: whether the new licenses produce reported royalty revenue and adjusted EBITDA crosses towards positive.
**About M&A,** there could be some possible scenarios:
* **Scenario A: a whole company sale to a brand aggregator**
The natural buyer universe is the brand management companies that have consolidated this industry: WHP Global, Authentic Brands Group, Marquee Brands, Bluestar Alliance. These firms buy precisely this asset: **trademarks with existing royalty streams and no operational baggage.**
There is a hard precedent here, and it involves this exact company. In May 2022, **WHP Global acquired a 70% controlling stake in Isaac Mizrahi from Xcel Brands for $48.2 million, in a deal valuing the brand at approximately $68 million.**
$XELB has already sold a brand to a top tier aggregator at a serious price, and WHP knows this portfolio and this management team from the inside.
**At 5x-7x royalty revenue: EV of $22.5M-$31.5M, turns this into $1.64-$3.00 per share.** That's huge.
* **Scenario B: Halston sold standalone (imo, the most plausible path)**
Halston produces roughly 57% of revenue, or about $2.6 million annualized, under a 25 year master license with G-III Apparel Group signed in June 2023. That is a long dated, contracted royalty stream from a listed counterparty. This is the kind of cash flow that is genuinely financeable and that specialist buyers underwrite at a premium to a fuzzy brand with no contracts attached.
**At 6x-8x, Halston alone is worth $15.6M-$20.8M.** That retires the entire debt load with room to spare and leaves a debt free company holding C Wonder, Longaberger, Tower Hill by Christie Brinkley, Cesar Millan, and Coco Rocha. Valuing that residual on Judith Ripka style comps gives it maybe $3M-$7M.
**Resulting equity whould be roughly $16M with no debt, which will turn this into $2.42 per share.**
I think this is the most possible one to happen because it requires NO change in management behavior. $XELB has sold Isaac Mizrahi and Judith Ripka already. Selling assets to service debt is what this company does, and it has been working for them.
**My own price targets**
After my research, **I am aiming for $1.40-$1.70 before Q3 ends**. The lower bound is the gap level, and the upper one is roughly 0.9x book, which I think is totally achievable on a Q3 print showing royalti contribution from the new deals.
By EOY, **I think we can see $1.80-$2.20**, anchored on a 1.0x stated book value with a debt solution in place. This is near where the stock traded within the past year.
The bull case does not require $XELB to become a growth company. It requires the brand portfolio to be worth something closer to carrying value than to zero, and it requires three signed licenses to produce royalties on a cost base that has already been cut. At $5.3M, the market is underpricing this for sure, and I think that gap closes on any evidence of royalty contribution in the Q3 print. As of now, I hold around 6,000 shares of it, and planning to hold until end of year or when it touches my targets. Do your own research! And thanks for reading if you got this far.

I don’t know why people believe his nonsensical pipe dreams when he couldn’t even make the roadster or an EV truck people want to buy

I’ll keep this short and simple. CRSR just crushed their Q2 earnings – raised EBITDA guidance by 17% ($19M) and raised EPS guidance by 36%. Product mix is shifting favorably, gross profit was up 21% YoY and gross margins increased to 33% (up 600 bps YoY). Generated $75M of cash flow in the quarter. And as previously announced, they are building an AI workstation business.
 
The best part? Valuation is extremely reasonable especially in today’s market.  
 
EV / EBITDA: \~9x
P/E: 12x
Price / Sales: 0.8x
 
You can’t find bargains like that in this market. This should be a $20 stock. Even at those levels, EV / EBITDA would be 16x.
 
Positions: $70k worth of calls. This thing is low volume, relatively small market cap and low IV and can move quickly. After earnings it went to $15 and I’d expect it to return to that level quickly.

Why would you “strip away the cash?” I understand stripping away goodwill, intangible assets and the like, and taking a jaundice eyed approach to inventory increases and in some cases in other industries to accounts receivable, but cash is cash.
The currently popular EV calculation doesn’t make sense to me. Two things I would caution people about are EV based valuations and sell side analysts price targets.

Everyone still seems to think of BlackBerry as the boomer keyboard phone company or a heavy bag from the 2021 meme stock craze. Looking at the raw data over the last 36 months, the market is completely sleeping on what BB has actually become. They aren't trying to make hardware anymore; they are building the foundational plumbing for software-defined vehicles and physical AI.
Let's talk about the automotive moat first. Over the last three years, legacy automakers realized they are terrible at writing operating systems. Instead of building their own OS from scratch to compete with Tesla, they are licensing QNX. It is now embedded in over 275 million vehicles globally. We are talking almost every major EV maker, plus legacy giants like BMW, VW, Toyota, and Volvo. The rollout of their SDP 8.0 platform was a massive catalyst because it actually scales across multi-core chips, which is exactly what is needed for modern digital cockpits and autonomous driver assistance systems.
But if you are only looking at global car production numbers, you are missing the actual bull case. The real upside is in what they call the General Embedded Market. The pivot here is exactly why the tech is gaining so much traction. QNX is no longer just an auto play; it is an edge AI and robotics play.
They are expanding partnerships with hardware giants like Nvidia specifically for robotics and AI infrastructure.
The software is pushing heavily into surgical robots, defense contracts, and industrial automation where safety-critical, zero-latency performance is literally a matter of life or death.
Management has signaled that this embedded market will eventually dwarf the auto sector, giving them a massive, high-margin revenue stream that isn't tied to how many cars roll off a dealership lot in a given quarter.
Now, let's look at the financials, specifically the backlog, because this is where the market disconnect is happening.
BB currently has a royalty backlog sitting at around $950 million. The reason the stock hasn't necessarily reflected this yet is because of the revenue realization lag. When QNX wins a design contract, they don't get paid the bulk of the royalties until those specific cars or machines actually roll off the assembly line. That creates a brutal two-to-four-year lag between the hype of a design win and the actual cash hitting the balance sheet.
Those contracts from the last three years are finally starting to convert now. QNX officially hit the software industry's "Rule of 40" benchmark recently, proving the business model is actually scaling efficiently and generating real profit margins.
TL;DR: The turnaround phase is effectively over. BB has transformed into a high-margin software infrastructure company with nearly a billion dollars in backlog that is finally starting to print cash. The transition to software-defined everything is already happening, and QNX is the base layer. This isn't financial advice, but the fundamentals are finally catching up to the technology.
What do you think? Is WS still too burned by the legacy smartphone baggage to price the software business correctly?

Post must relate to NIO, the EV industry, or a NIO competitor.

If you want to find good stocks, you first need to learn how to research a company.
Start by learning how to read its financial statements, including the income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement. You should understand things like revenue, profit, debt, cash flow, assets, and liabilities.
You should also look at the company's free cash flow. If free cash flow is consistently positive and growing over several years, that's generally a good sign. But if it is negative or extremely inconsistent, you should investigate why.
When looking at the financial statements, don't just look at one year. Compare several years and look for a consistent trend.
For example, suppose a company makes ₹500 crore profit one year, then ₹300 crore the next year, and then ₹1,500 crore the year after that. That's a very unstable pattern. You should try to understand why the earnings are changing so much before investing.
After checking the company's financial health, the next step is valuation.
There are many valuation ratios you can learn, such as P/E, PEG, P/B, P/TBV, P/S, EV/S, EV/EBIT, P/CF, and P/FCF. You can learn what these ratios mean through books, YouTube, or ChatGPT.
Other ratio like ROE, ROCE, EBIDTA, OPERATING MARGIN IS STABLE GROWING OR DECLINING, ROA, CCC, INVEN TO, NET BLOCK IS INCREASING OR NOT COMPARE WITH 7,5,3 YEAR, NOW.
When you see borrowing you should feel like there also like increasing their assets like why did their borrowing money go etc
You should also compare the company's growth with its stock price. For example, if the company's earnings are growing slowly but its stock price has increased extremely quickly, you should investigate whether the valuation has become too expensive.
You can also check the promoter's shareholding, but don't assume that a promoter holding above 50% automatically means the company is safe. More importantly, look at whether the promoter holding is stable, whether shares have been pledged, and whether there are any other warning signs.
You should also understand the business itself.
Ask yourself: Does this company operate in a growing market? Does it have a competitive advantage? Is demand for its products likely to grow? What are its competitors doing?
For example, if a company operates in a market with strong future growth opportunities and has a good competitive position, that could be positive. But you should still compare it with its competitors and look at their growth, profitability, market share, and valuation.
Finally, before buying any stock, always ask yourself: "What price am I paying for this business?"
A great company can still be a bad investment if you pay an extremely high price for it.
So my basic process would be:
1. Understand the business.
2. Check the financial statements.
3. Look at revenue, profit, margins, debt, and cash flow.
4. Check whether the financial performance is consistent.
5. Study the company's competitive advantages.
6. Compare it with competitors.
7. Check the valuation.
8. Look at promoter/shareholding information and other potential red flags.
9. Finally, decide whether the price you're paying makes sense.
You don't need to learn everything at once. Start with the basics and gradually learn more.

Hi everyone, last Friday $XELB popped up on my screener so I decided to dig in it a little bit this weekend and tried to make a small DD about it and why I think it's a buy at this price.
**First, what Xcel Brands actually is**
Xcel Brands is a brand licensing company based in NY, founded in 2011 and run since inception by Robert D'Loren. It is not a retailer and not a manufacturer. It owns trademarks, licenses them to operating partners who handle design, production, and distribution, and collects the royalties.
There is no inventory, no factories, and no working capital tied up in product. The whole company runs on 15 employees.
The portfolio has been built by acquiring recognizable but underexploited names and putting them back into distribution. The anchor is Halston, whose trademarks Xcel bought in 2019 and then master-licensed to G-III Apparel Group in June 2023 under a 25 year agreement, a long-dated contracted royalty stream that today produces the majority of company revenue. Around it sit C Wonder, Longaberger, and a newer group of influencer founded brands: Tower Hill by Christie Brinkley, Trust. Respect. Love by Cesar Millan, and OFF/DUTY by Coco Rocha. Distribution skews toward interactive television (QVC and HSN, under the Qurate umbrella), livestream shopping, and social commerce rather than traditional wholesale.

**About the stock**
They are sitting around a $5.3M market cap, a 4.4M float and currently the price per share is \~$0.80. Insiders own almost 33% of the company.

**Their financials**
Q2 2026: net licensing revenue of $1.12M, improved their loss of $1.66 per share to $0.40, a huge improvement. CEO Robert D'Loren described it as the best quarter on an adjusted basis since June 2024. They are sitting on a $12M debt, and every single dollar goes to paying it, before investing it on other operations.
On valuation, using an annualized H1 run rate of about $4.5M in revenue, P/S is roughly 1.2x and enterprise value sits 3.8x sales. P/B is approximately 0.44x.
That price to book ratio, looks very small and really cheap, but you have to understand that the market is pricing those intangibles at less than half of carrying value for a reason. The Judith Ripka disposal in April 2026 fetched $2.3M in cash +an earn out, which is a real world data point on what these assets clear at in a motivated sale.
Also, their revenue concentration is a thing. The Halston master license produced 57% of quarterly revenue and Qurate agreements another 27%.

**Insider ownership**
Looking at it, the insider ownership at $XELB has always been meaningful, with D'Loren being the largest individual holder, this is a founder led company and not a shell run by hired managers. That's a huge positive point for me, even more in pennystocks. As I said before, they hold \~33% of the company.

**Technicals**
I mostly don't look at the technicals, but I wanted to put it in here in case anyone wanted to know it (AI helped me here):
>"At $0.81 as of August 24, the stock sits near the bottom of a 52-week range of $0.625 to $2.66, down about 38% over twelve months. Price is below the 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages. Daily volatility has been extreme, with a 23.55% move on a recent session, and volume is thin enough that fills are unreliable in size. It's the kind of chart where a 40% bounce and a new low are both entirely plausible within a month."

**My investment thesis and why I think it's a buy**
1. The market cap is $5.3M **against stated equity of $12M and a portfolio of recognizable brands**.
2. Direct operating expenses **have been cut towards a run rate under $8M annually,** so the cost side has been genuinely attacked and cut down.
3. The licensing model is asset light. **New deals carry very little incremental costs, so revenue recovery would flow through hard**
4. **Their deal flow is REAL and recent.** EcoStrong for Cesar Millan's Trust. Respect. Love (June 11th), KBL Group for Coco Rocha's OFF/DUTY (July 6th), and J.Queen for Tower Hill by Christie Brinkley home decor (July 14).
5. With just a \~4M float and volume being this small, any genuine good news will move this stock violently.

**Catalysts and what would change my mind**
Q3 results in November are the next big event for this stock imo. I'm watching these two things: whether the new licenses produce reported royalty revenue and adjusted EBITDA crosses towards positive.
**About M&A,** there could be some possible scenarios:
* **Scenario A: a whole company sale to a brand aggregator**
The natural buyer universe is the brand management companies that have consolidated this industry: WHP Global, Authentic Brands Group, Marquee Brands, Bluestar Alliance. These firms buy precisely this asset: **trademarks with existing royalty streams and no operational baggage.**
There is a hard precedent here, and it involves this exact company. In May 2022, **WHP Global acquired a 70% controlling stake in Isaac Mizrahi from Xcel Brands for $48.2 million, in a deal valuing the brand at approximately $68 million.**
$XELB has already sold a brand to a top tier aggregator at a serious price, and WHP knows this portfolio and this management team from the inside.
**At 5x-7x royalty revenue: EV of $22.5M-$31.5M, turns this into $1.64-$3.00 per share.** That's huge.
* **Scenario B: Halston sold standalone (imo, the most plausible path)**
Halston produces roughly 57% of revenue, or about $2.6 million annualized, under a 25 year master license with G-III Apparel Group signed in June 2023. That is a long dated, contracted royalty stream from a listed counterparty. This is the kind of cash flow that is genuinely financeable and that specialist buyers underwrite at a premium to a fuzzy brand with no contracts attached.
**At 6x-8x, Halston alone is worth $15.6M-$20.8M.** That retires the entire debt load with room to spare and leaves a debt free company holding C Wonder, Longaberger, Tower Hill by Christie Brinkley, Cesar Millan, and Coco Rocha. Valuing that residual on Judith Ripka style comps gives it maybe $3M-$7M.
**Resulting equity whould be roughly $16M with no debt, which will turn this into $2.42 per share.**
I think this is the most possible one to happen because it requires NO change in management behavior. $XELB has sold Isaac Mizrahi and Judith Ripka already. Selling assets to service debt is what this company does, and it has been working for them.

**My own price targets**
After my research, **I am aiming for $1.40-$1.70 before Q3 ends**. The lower bound is the gap level, and the upper one is roughly 0.9x book, which I think is totally achievable on a Q3 print showing royalti contribution from the new deals.
By EOY, **I think we can see $1.80-$2.20**, anchored on a 1.0x stated book value with a debt solution in place. This is near where the stock traded within the past year.
The bull case does not require $XELB to become a growth company. It requires the brand portfolio to be worth something closer to carrying value than to zero, and it requires three signed licenses to produce royalties on a cost base that has already been cut. At $5.3M, the market is underpricing this for sure, and I think that gap closes on any evidence of royalty contribution in the Q3 print. As of now, I hold around 6,000 shares of it, and planning to hold until end of year or when it touches my targets. Do your own research! And thanks for reading if you got this far.

But I'm saying the psychological issues is mainly from the fact they don't truly know if it's profitable or not due to not having the hard data in front of them. If I said "here's a 60% win rate strategy averaging a 2R every time you trade x setup", you're going to take that trade every time because you know and trust the data due to it being tested hundreds if not thousands of times. Very little thinking is involved. Most retail traders don't know the EV/ win rate x average RR of what they're trading which is why they're hesitant and have all these psychological issues. The psychological issues all come from one of two things.

1. Lack of thorough information/data proving what you're trading is actually profitable
2. Trading with too much risk.

Google "the wheel" strategy. Basically you lose some EV in favour of more steady gains

Why should NIO go to US? For what? EV cars market in US are very tiny (10%) when you compare to China or even Europe.
Its completely pointless for NIO to go US.