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> Except...a lot of the things you seem terribly bothered by, Tesla actually delivered on. And a lot of the things you touched on, Tesla made no bones about the low likelihood of success.
Cite them. I'd love to hear what Musk has ever promised as a 'low probability of success'. Only one I can think of DBE for battery day and even then Baglino got on stage and literally said "this is all stuff we're doing today, not something that'll never make it out of a lab".
> Either way, basically nobody just plugs in the numbers that are thrown out there by Elon. Those are moonshot, uber bull numbers. Take about 25% off or add about 50% to the timeline and that ends up being a bit closer to reality. Sometimes things just fail. Build that in.
Let's say you did this back in 2019, you would still be way way off on robotaxis and FSD. Furthermore that doesn't account for the binary nature of actually being able to deliver on claims in the first place. Analysts were putting Dojo at well $100B worth of value not too long ago and where did it end up? Cancelled without much fanfare and Musk just promising AI5 and AI6 would do the same thing but better. You can extend this to a lot of other major projects the company has like the CT, which has been an abject failure supported largely by purchases from Musk's other companies the past few quarters or the solar roof which went all of nowhere. Hell even Musk's 'Master Plan 5' was premised on Tesla already having an easy solution to global energy problem and now he's claiming you just have to build data centers in space because apparently it'll be far more economical than actually building terrestrial solar and energy storage, two things which were supposed to worth the same or more than Tesla's auto business, just a few years ago. Sorry man but I can't just shave off a few percentage points and add a few months to Musk's timelines at this point and pretend that's more realistic. If you want to feel he has the credibility to deliver on them feel free to. If history is any guide there's a fair chance it won't matter what does or doesn't happen anyways with anything Musk adjacent.

> Except...a lot of the things you seem terribly bothered by, Tesla actually delivered on. And a lot of the things you touched on, Tesla made no bones about the low likelihood of success.
Cite them. I'd love to hear what Musk has ever promised as a 'low probability of success'. Only one I can think of DBE for battery day and even then Baglino got on stage and literally said "this is all stuff we're doing today, not something that'll never make it out of a lab".
> Either way, basically nobody just plugs in the numbers that are thrown out there by Elon. Those are moonshot, uber bull numbers. Take about 25% off or add about 50% to the timeline and that ends up being a bit closer to reality. Sometimes things just fail. Build that in.
Let's say you did this back in 2019, you would still be way way off on robotaxis and FSD. Furthermore that doesn't account for the binary nature of actually being able to deliver on claims in the first place. Analysts were putting Dojo at well $100B worth of value not too long ago and where did it end up? Cancelled without much fanfare and Musk just promising AI5 and AI6 would do the same thing but better. You can extend this to a lot of other major projects the company has like the CT, which has been an abject failure supported largely by purchases from Musk's other companies the past few quarters or the solar roof which went all of nowhere. Hell even Musk's 'Master Plan 5' was premised on Tesla already having an easy solution to global energy problem and now he's claiming you just have to build data centers in space because apparently it'll be far more economical than actually building terrestrial solar and energy storage, two things which were supposed to worth the same or more than Tesla's auto business, just a few years ago. Sorry man but I can't just shave off a few percentage points and add a few months to Musk's timelines at this point and pretend that's more realistic. If you want to feel he has the credibility to deliver on them feel free to. If history is any guide there's a fair chance it won't matter what does or doesn't happen anyways with anything Musk adjacent.