CRM
Salesforce, Inc.
stock NYSE

Out of curiosity, how are you modelling SBC in your DCF? That's the key issue with CRM

MSFT is a dead company. AI will kill them, just like with CRM and ADBE

Currently -0.25% on the the day thanks to CRM of all things.

Good question. With 0% terminal growth (i.e., CRM generates the same FCF forever after Year 10 with no growth), fair value drops to roughly 280. Still about 40% above the current price.

CRM has gotten crushed in the broader SaaS/tech selloff, down nearly 50% from its highs near $365 in late 2024. The whole enterprise software space has been under pressure as the market rotates out of anything AI-adjacent that hasn't immediately monetized, and Salesforce has been caught up in that despite posting record revenue and margins. So I figured it was worth running a proper DCF to see if the selloff has created an actual opportunity or if the market knows something.
The headline result looks compelling. Stockoscope shows an intrinsic value of roughly $320 versus a $195 market price, implying about 65% upside. 10% revenue growth from analyst consensus (42 analysts covering), 9.4% WACC from market data, nothing crazy in the inputs. The stock is sitting at 15x EV/EBITDA, 24x earnings, 8% free cash flow yield - not screamingly cheap but not expensive either for a dominant SaaS platform growing in the double digits.
But the entire valuation swings on one assumption: EBITDA margin. Salesforce's current EBITDA margin is about 31%. They've done an incredible job expanding it. It was 14.5% in FY2022, so they've more than doubled it in four years. But the analyst consensus that feeds into the DCF model is projecting margins reaching 49%. That's a massive jump from where they are today.
I ran a sensitivity table on it. Here are the results:
|**EBITDA Margin**|**Intrinsic Value**|**Upside vs $195**|
|:-|:-|:-|
|32% (today)|$205 |5%|
|38%|$246 |26%|
|44%|$287 |47%|
|49% (analyst consensus)|$323 |66%|
So, at current margins, you're basically paying fair value. The entire margin of safety comes from believing margins will expand significantly from here. Even getting halfway there (to 38%) gives you decent upside, but 49% is a big number for a company that has to keep investing heavily in AI and still competes against Microsoft, ServiceNow, and others.
What's interesting is that multiples tell a similar story. Compared to 80 tech sector peers, the median peer-implied fair value comes to about $261, roughly 34% upside. So both DCF and relative valuation point to undervaluation.
Two questions for the group:

\- For those of you who use analyst consensus estimates in your models - how much weight do you actually put on them? In this case, the margin estimates seem to be doing a LOT of heavy lifting. Do you haircut them, use your own assumptions, or just take them as-is?

\- If you're looking at CRM right now, what margin assumption are you using? Curious whether people think 49% is realistic or if the market is right to be skeptical.
Not investment advice. DYOR.

tldr; Crypto.com, a Singapore-based cryptocurrency exchange, has laid off 12% of its workforce, approximately 180 employees, as part of a strategic restructuring to integrate artificial intelligence (AI) across operations. The company cited inefficiencies in its layered organizational structure and emphasized the urgency of adopting AI to remain competitive. Growth and CRM teams were most affected. Crypto.com aims to align resources with future priorities and warned that companies slow to adopt AI risk falling behind.
*This summary is auto generated by a bot and not meant to replace reading the original article. As always, DYOR.

NOW is a prospective candidate for this. Other SaaS stocks like CRM and ADBE also have significant upside potential. These are probably my most undervalued plays currently, and RKLB.

Its CRM

Hey with CRM chart, it's holding up nicely above 190 but struggling to break 200, chart looks kind of like a short term bull flag? I have calls. How you liking this chart in the short term? You reckon we break above 200 soon, or drop below 190? I struggle to see it going down further right now with the share buyback. And it can't sideways forever... thoughts ?
Today was a market wide bloodbath but we only dropped -0.5% which was good comparatively

I've dabbled in and out of ADBE many times over the years. While I do think the valuation is currently very attractive, I've come to the conclusion that wall street and hedge funds simply hate the stock and I think there are better opportunities in the software space ie MSFT, NOW, CRM are much better candidates likely to rebound

Things can change fast, all these companies make these massive guidance predictions but all it takes is one customer to pull off to change things. Feel like SSD, NAND, RAM are the commodity piece that can be undercut by China?
Maybe the Market is starting to price these massive Q's as peak ai revenue which is why AVGO, AMD and NVDA are on a downtrend. RAM was the hot trade the past 6 months.
For the spending party to continue all the big software companies like MSFT, META, GOOG, AMZN, ORCL, CRM, etc need to keep banging and start to see a ROI. but their stocks have been declining too, esp MSFT, CRM and ORCL. Its becoming a game of chicken as to who will crack first and if it keeps going down they're going to need that cash for payroll and share buybacks to keep the price up.
my 2 bear cents.

As it turns out, JPM is truly a fucking asshole company. For CRM they had a DCB. TA shows there is another fib level for a true rally and it’s significantly lower than those 175p

Small team building Founders Kit — a conversational CRM for founders and small teams.
Business: B2B SaaS, just launched.
Where AI plugs in: mostly on the product side — the conversational interface itself is AI-driven so users update deals and set follow-ups by just telling it what they need in plain language instead of navigating menus. On the ops side we use AI for drafting, research, and support responses.
Stack: Founders Kit for CRM (full disclosure, we built it), Claude for drafting and thinking through problems, standard Google Workspace for everything else. Deliberately kept it lean.
Revenue: too early to share meaningful numbers — just launched.
What's still fully human: sales conversations, customer feedback calls, anything that needs genuine relationship judgment. AI handles volume and consistency, humans handle context and trust.
Biggest lesson so far: the temptation is to add AI everywhere. The discipline is figuring out where it actually removes friction vs where it just adds complexity.

If you read the author's posts, he is deeply invested in SaaS companies which is why he's been going around saying Claude Code is "shit". Plenty of software developers feel threatened by LLMs so they're incentivized to downplay it.
\> Claude is a shit eating intern at best
[https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/1r7wlma/comment/o7lhpp1/](https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/1r7wlma/comment/o7lhpp1/)
\>So the current narrative is foolish at best. I’m DCAing more in CRM, MSFT, CRWD, TEAM since they are at a deep discount with good financials and moat.
[https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1qx2b0d/comment/o3v08q7](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1qx2b0d/comment/o3v08q7)

Currently my largest positions are AMZN, MA, GOOG, CRM, META. Way to basic

When people compare CRM - or other CRM/ERP products and companies within this field - to ServiceNow and praise ServiceNow.. Have these people worked with ServiceNow before, or do they mostly view ServiceNow as this magnificent workflow automator?
ERPs and CRMs appear as slow because they are handling immense amounts of data, corresponding to the sometimes data-heavy loads and requests users make.
I have worked with ServiceNow before. All I see is a glorified ticketing system that could just as easily be threatened by competitors. Their API structure is.. decent but not more than that. Are people willing to bet on a general plug and play API request software company that doesn’t have any specific moat - at least as far as I can tell?
Sorry, I just don’t buy it. My humble opinion, I really don’t get the craze about ServiceNow so please enlighten me

Let’s make one big beautiful list of high probability stocks to join CRM/ADBE/UNH etc. down in dogshit land

1) I used to chase smaller gains here and there thinking I could just rinse and repeat over and over again. I'd buy very strong companies, usually after a bad market day, and have confidence they'd come back. These are tickers such as MSFT ADBE (MACR before ADOBE bought them) EBAY AMZN ORCL NFLX CRM AAPL during the 2000's decade. I even had NVDA back in that era. YHOO as well, but towards the tail end they weren't coming back anymore.
While I still made a profit, I started to realize that these stocks just kept going up over time because the companies kept growing. My buy in price seemed to trend higher on each rinse.
Rather than rinse and repeat, I decided to just buy, hold, add more over time as long as the financials were still strong and trending in the right/uprward direction. My percent gains now have a lot more numbers to the left as I have holdings that are 8-16 years old - many of which include the names I just mentioned.
2) Got over the idea of "too late to buy". AAPL iPhone is nearly 20 years old now, yet since it's launch AAPL would have 40x your money. Sure the earlier shares in that cycle are more profitable. But later shares handily beat the SP500. As long as the company continues to grow, so to will the share price. You don't get to $4t without passing through $2t, $1t, $800b....
3) I also got over my own ego and started accumulating the two major US indices, SPY/VOO and QQQ/QQQM. I used to think we'll I'll just keep beating them, I don't need them. But over time I started to see how powerful the reconstitution and rebalances can be over time. They take in all the winners, and grow their weight, and do the opposite to the decliners. Not only that but in your later years, you'll definitely want the diversity and stability over individual stocks. I would hope most living those years are not still keep track of the companies and following the financials, unless it's a personal hobby, but rather enjoying life to fullest.

AAPL TSM CRM Netflix

UNH, NVO, ENPH, IBM, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, BA, MSFT, ADBE, CRM