CRM
Salesforce, Inc.
stock NYSE

Salesforce -33% in 2026.
ServiceNow -34%.
Microsoft -20%.
Wedbush's Dan Ives: *"The most disconnected trade I've ever seen in my career."*
Meanwhile the actual AI data:
- 95% of AI pilots: failed (MIT)
- Microsoft Copilot: failed 70% of simple tasks
- AI profit margin improvement: 5% of companies (BCG)
This is the technology that killed $280B in market cap.
---
Here is what ACTUALLY happened:
Anthropic dropped Claude Cowork with legal/finance/marketing plugins. Investors decided SaaS = dead. Gartner said the same day: *"Predictions of the death of SaaS are premature."* JPMorgan called it broken logic. Stocks kept falling anyway.
Markets price fear faster than facts. Always have.
---
The real play isn't buying or selling based on a headline. It's reading what these companies actually disclosed in their filings about AI exposure before the panic sets in.
Salesforce's 10-K. Thomson Reuters 10-K. They all said something about AI risk.
Anyway. What's everyone's positioning? I'm watching CRM and NOW for a bounce. Or the S&P components that have zero AI exposure.
🚀 or 🩸 — your call.

MSFT is a steal, CRM ,NOW, & APP plus VEEV and defense software stocks (PANW!) have little risk. SNOW & NBIS aren’t crazy, SOFI is getting close. Very little else but MSFT is 5 companies in 1, go BIG.

But they haven’t dropped yet, it’s a maybe that’s real but overblown. CRM growth is reaccelerating. Have any experience a drop yet at all?

I'd wait and see what happens Monday. The Iran strikes could alter a lot. There is a lot of value in infrastructure, energy, utilities, and mid market right now. Lower than mid market is difficult... something like 40% of the Russell 2000 isn't even profitable. I'd be careful with Software as you need to be selective. I personally think CRM and NOW will be able to weather the storm, but unsure of others.

CRM calls it is - new regime gonna need a CRM tool to manage the country tbh

Yep, all the tech leaders have been screaming about RAM and storage memory shortage since Jan 2025, but it only took off in Oct 2025. Institutional bers got an iron grip over SaaS and other AI sectors like CRM thanks to retard-in-chief, the recovery will be violent if they ever start rushing for exit.

SAP, CRM and NOW look fairly good to me. First two especially. They might face headwinds and further correction related to seat pricing for certain products being disrupted by AI, however

**TL;DR: 500 US-listed companies of the 2600 odd I track have direct Middle East exposure through subsidiaries, facilities, or supply chains. Zero have subsidiaries in Iran. Israel has 224 companies with 396 subsidiaries mostly tech. Saudi Arabia and UAE are packed with everyone from defense contractors to Krispy Kreme.**
---
## The Method
I extracted subsidiary lists, facility disclosures, supplier relationships, and geographic segments from 10-K and 10-Q filings (Exhibit 21, Item 2, risk factors) from 2600 odd companies. This isn't "revenue by region" estimates these are actual legal entities registered in these countries, disclosed to the SEC.
---
## Iran:
**Zero companies have subsidiaries in Iran.** Out of 234,000+ subsidiary records across 2,600 companies, not a single one is incorporated in Iran. Sanctions are working at least on paper.
The only connection I found: **LivaNova (LIVN)** discloses supply chain links to "non-governmental organizations in Iran" in their filings. That's it. One company. One indirect link.
**What this means:** Direct asset seizure risk from an Iran conflict is essentially zero for US equities. The risk is indirect oil prices, shipping lanes, regional contagion.
---
## Israel: 224 Companies, 396 Subsidiaries The Tech Dependency Most even in media miss
Israel is the second most exposed country after UAE. Here's what surprised me: it's not just "Israeli companies listed in the US." These are subsidiaries of major American corporations.
**Big Tech's Israel R&D footprint:**
| Ticker | Company | Israel Subsidiaries |
|--------|---------|-------------------|
| INTC | Intel | Intel Electronics Ltd., Hampton Acquisition Ltd, Intel Israel (74) Limited + 1 more |
| NVDA | NVIDIA | Mellanox Technologies, Ltd |
| MRVL | Marvell | Marvell Israel (M.I.S.L) Ltd. + leased facilities |
| AMAT | Applied Materials | Applied Materials Israel Ltd., Sage Design Automation |
| LRCX | Lam Research | Lam Research (Israel) Ltd., Lam Research Services Ltd. |
| KLAC | KLA Corp | 7 Israeli subsidiaries including Frontline P.C.B. Solutions |
| TXN | Texas Instruments | Texas Instruments Israel Ltd. |
| CDNS | Cadence | Cadence Design (Israel) II, Cadence Design Systems (Israel) |
| NXPI | NXP Semiconductors | NXP Israel Ltd. |
| MCHP | Microchip Tech | 3 Israeli subsidiaries |
That's the backbone of the US semiconductor supply chain with physical operations in a country at war.
**Cybersecurity almost the entire sector:**
| Ticker | Company | Israel Entity |
|--------|---------|--------------|
| CRWD | CrowdStrike | Flow Security Ltd., CrowdStrike Israel R&D Ltd., Bionic Stork Ltd. |
| PANW | Palo Alto Networks | Athens Strategies Ltd., Palo Alto Networks (Israel Services) |
| S | SentinelOne | Sentinel Labs Israel Ltd |
| FTNT | Fortinet | Fortinet Security Israel Ltd. |
| ZS | Zscaler | Avalor Technologies LTD, Zscaler Israel LTD |
| TENB | Tenable | Ermetic Ltd., Eureka Security Ltd., Tenable Israel Ltd. + 1 more |
| OKTA | Okta | Spera Cybersecurity Ltd. |
| RPD | Rapid7 | IntSights Cyber Intelligence Ltd. |
| VRNS | Varonis | Varonis Systems Ltd. |
The US cybersecurity industry's R&D is disproportionately located in an active conflict zone. If you're long cybersecurity ETFs, you have Israel exposure whether you know it or not.
**Other names that surprised me:**
- **ISRG** (Intuitive Surgical) Intuitive Surgical Israel Ltd., Orpheus Medical Ltd.
- **PLTR** (Palantir) Palantir Engineering Israel Ltd.
- **CRM** (Salesforce) 5 Israeli subsidiaries including ClickSoftware and Datorama
- **SNOW** (Snowflake) Snowflake Cloudtech Israel Ltd.
- **U** (Unity) ironSource Ltd., ironSource Mobile Ltd.
- **DKNG** (DraftKings) Gaming Tech Ltd., Blue Ribbon Software Ltd.
- **NYT** (NY Times) The Herald Tribune - Ha'aretz Partnership
Total Israel exposure: **224 companies, 396 subsidiaries, plus 5 companies with physical facilities.**
---
## Iraq: 10 Companies Still Operating
These are the companies with actual legal entities in Iraq right now:
| Ticker | Company | Iraq Subsidiary |
|--------|---------|----------------|
| KBR | KBR Inc. | KBR Abr al Bihar General Services |
| LHX | L3Harris Technologies | Sunshine General Services, LLC |
| AMTM | Amentum Holdings | Worldwide For General Services |
| ABM | ABM Industries | Wassl Al-Iraq Project Services |
| AIR | AAR Corp | Wide Open Sky General Trading |
| AON | Aon plc | Aon Bahrain W.L.L. (Iraq Branch) |
| PTEN | Patterson-UTI Energy | Ulterra Drilling Technologies (Iraq Branch) |
| TT | Trane Technologies | Imteaz Alroaa Company |
| TTI | TETRA Technologies | Well TETRA for Oil Services LLC |
| VSAT | Viasat | Shabakat Rafedain AI Iraq |
Mostly defense contractors and oilfield services. These are the first names that get affected if Iraq gets pulled into a wider conflict.
---
## Saudi Arabia & UAE: The Full List Is Massive
**Saudi Arabia: 149 companies, 203 subsidiaries.** Everyone from defense contractors to fast food:
Notable names:
| Sector | Companies |
|--------|-----------|
| Defense/Gov | BAH (Booz Allen), GD (General Dynamics), KBR, LHX (L3Harris), KTOS (Kratos), PSN (Parsons), VVX (V2X) |
| Oil & Gas | XOM (ExxonMobil), NOV, HAL -> Saudi Aramco, NBR -> Saudi Aramco, RIG (Transocean), WFRD (Weatherford), HP (H&P) |
| Tech | DELL, CSCO (Cisco), IBM, NOW (ServiceNow), PANW, SNOW, MSTR (MicroStrategy), SMCI (Super Micro), ZM (Zoom) |
| Pharma | LLY (Eli Lilly), PFE (Pfizer), BMY (Bristol Myers), VRTX (Vertex), MRK (Merck), BIIB (Biogen) |
| EV | LCID (Lucid) "Lucid LLC" in Saudi Arabia. PIF is their largest shareholder. |
| Food | TSN (Tyson) Supreme Foods Processing Co. |
**UAE: 239 companies, 360 subsidiaries the biggest footprint of any ME country.**
Some of the more unexpected ones:
- **WYNN** (Wynn Resorts) 11 UAE subsidiaries including Wynn Resorts FZ-LLC. They're building a casino resort on Al Marjan Island.
- **DNUT** (Krispy Kreme) Krispy Kreme Doughnuts DMCC
- **MGM** (MGM Resorts) 3 UAE entities
- **MARA** (Marathon Digital/Bitcoin miner) 4 UAE entities including ZTM Limited
- **GRPN** (Groupon) Groupon FZE
- **DOCN** (DigitalOcean) Cloudways FZ-LLC
- **WING** (Wingstop) Wingstop (Middle East) Managing Office Ltd.
- **PZZA** (Papa Johns) PJ EMEA DMCC
---
## Defense Contractors Operating in the Middle East
These are the companies that show up repeatedly across multiple ME countries with "operations" geographic segments:
| Ticker | Company | ME Countries with Subsidiaries | Geography Segments |
|--------|---------|-------------------------------|-------------------|
| BA | Boeing | | Middle East |
| LMT | Lockheed Martin | | Middle East |
| RTX | RTX Corp | | Middle East and North Africa |
| GD | General Dynamics | Egypt, Israel, Saudi Arabia, UAE | Other Africa Middle East |
| LHX | L3Harris | Iraq, Saudi Arabia, UAE | |
| KBR | KBR Inc. | Iraq, Oman, Saudi Arabia | Middle East |
| BAH | Booz Allen Hamilton | Bahrain, Egypt, Lebanon, Saudi, UAE | |
| PSN | Parsons Corp | Oman, Saudi Arabia, UAE | Middle East |
| VVX | V2X Inc. | Jordan, Oman, Saudi Arabia | Middle East |
| KTOS | Kratos Defense | Israel, Saudi Arabia | Middle East |
| HAL | Halliburton | (supplier to Saudi Aramco) | Middle East Asia |
| AMTM | Amentum Holdings | Egypt, Iraq | |
---
## Supply Chain Chokepoints
Companies that are *suppliers to* companies with heavy ME exposure:
| Supplier | Supplies To | ME Exposure Via |
|----------|------------|----------------|
| MSFT | 15+ companies | SNOW, PATH, DELL, BB, FTNT, MSTR, etc. all with Israel/Saudi/UAE subs |
| GOOGL | 12+ companies | Same cluster Snowflake, UiPath, SentinelOne, etc. |
| TSM (TSMC) | NVDA, ADI, FTNT, MBLY, INDI | All with Israel operations |
| AMAT | ADBE, DELL | Saudi and Israel subs |
| HON | 7+ companies | ABM, GT, IFF, CMC across Egypt, UAE, Saudi, Israel |
---
## Physical Facilities (Not Just Paper Entities)
These companies have disclosed physical buildings, not just holding companies:
| Ticker | Company | Where | Facility Type |
|--------|---------|-------|--------------|
| MRVL | Marvell | Israel | Significant leased facilities |
| SEDG | SolarEdge | Israel | Leased facilities |
| DXPE | DXP Enterprises | UAE + Saudi Arabia | Service center + fabrication |
| FDP | Fresh Del Monte | Jordan | 6 facilities: poultry farms, hatcheries, feed mill, slaughterhouse, meat processing, 25 acre greenhouse |
| PPIH | Perma Pipe | UAE + Egypt | Manufacturing facilities |
---
For anyone trying to trade around geopolitical risk:
1. **Direct Iran exposure is zero.** Stop worrying about asset seizures. The risk is oil price shock and Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption.
2. **Israel tech exposure is systemic.** If you're long semis or cybersecurity, you have Israel risk. INTC, NVDA (via Mellanox), CRWD, PANW, ZS, TENB all have R&D operations there. This isn't diversifiable within the sector.
3. **Iraq subsidiaries = first movers on escalation.** KBR, LHX, AMTM, VSAT watch these for early signals. If they start disclosing evacuation costs or impairments, things are getting real.
4. **Saudi Aramco is the supply chain hub.** HAL, NBR, INVX, ECVT, SMHI all have direct supplier relationships with Aramco. Aramco disruption cascades.
5. **UAE is the "safe" ME hub** 239 companies set up there specifically because it's stable. If UAE stability gets questioned, that's 360 subsidiaries worth of write-down risk.
6. **LCID is the pure-play Saudi bet.** PIF owns a huge chunk, and they have a subsidiary called "Lucid LLC" in Saudi Arabia. If US-Saudi relations deteriorate, Lucid is caught in the middle.
---
## Full Ticker List
Sorted alphabetically. Ctrl+F your holdings:
ABM, ACDC, ACGL, ACN, ADBE, ADEA, ADI, ADM, ADSK, AEIS, AGYS, AIG, AIOT, AIR, AJG, AKAM, ALLE, AMAT, AME, AMTM, AMWL, ANDE, ANF, ANGO, AON, AOS, APD, APG, APH, APPS, APTV, ARES, ARKO, ARQ, ARW, ATKR, ATMU, ATR, AVNT, AVNW, AVPT, AVT, AVTR, AVY, AXP, AYI, BA, BAC, BAH, BALL, BAX, BB, BCO, BDC, BDX, BELFA, BELFB, BEN, BG, BIIB, BIO, BLCO, BMI, BMY, BR, BRC, BRKR, BRO, BSX, BSY, BW, CALX, CARR, CBRE, CBT, CCK, CDNS, CECO, CEVA, CHEF, CHGG, CHRW, CI, CL, CLVT, CLX, CMC, CMCO, CME, CNXC, COHR, COO, COTY, COUR, CPAY, CPRI, CPRT, CRAI, CRM, CRNC, CRON, CRSR, CRWD, CSCO, CSGS, CTVA, CXM, DBD, DBX, DCI, DD, DDD, DE, DELL, DGX, DHR, DK, DKNG, DNA, DNUT, DOCN, DOCU, DOW, DRS, DUK, DV, DVA, DXC, DXPE, EA, EAF, ECL, EE, EEFT, EFX, ELAN, ELV, EMBC, EMN, EMR, ENR, ENS, ENTG, EOG, EPAC, EPC, ERII, ESAB, ESTC, ETN, EVC, EVCM, EVR, EXPD, EXTR, FA, FC, FCN, FDP, FDS, FDX, FFIV, FICO, FLEX, FLS, FLUT, FLYW, FN, FORR, FOUR, FRHC, FTAI, FTNT, FTRE, FTV, FUL, FWONA, FWONK, G, GAP, GBX, GD, GDDY, GEHC, GEV, GGG, GHM, GILD, GIS, GM, GNE, GNRC, GNTX, GPUS, GRPN, GSAT, GT, GTES, GTLB, GTLS, GTM, HAIN, HAL, HELE, HLF, HLIT, HLNE, HLT, HNI, HOG, HON, HP, HPE, HURN, IART, IBEX, IBM, IEX, IFF, IHRT, ILMN, INDI, INTC, INTU, INVX, IONQ, IOSP, IPAR, IQV, IR, ISPR, ISRG, IT, ITGR, ITRI, ITT, J, JBL, JBTM, JEF, JHG, JNJ, KBR, KFY, KHC, KLAC, KLIC, KLTR, KMB, KMT, KODK, KPTI, KTB, KTOS, KVUE, KWR, LAUR, LCID, LEA, LECO, LEVI, LHX, LITE, LIVN, LLY, LMT, LNG, LOGI, LRCX, LW, LYB, MA, MARA, MAS, MBLY, MC, MCHP, MCO, MDLZ, MDT, MEI, MGM, MHK, MIDD, MKC, MKL, MKSI, MLI, MLKN, MMS, MNST, MORN, MRK, MRVL, MSCI, MSI, MSTR, MTCH, MTRX, MTW, MWA, NATR, NBR, NDAQ, NDSN, NE, NEU, NOV, NOW, NSIT, NTAP, NTCT, NTRA, NTRS, NVCR, NVDA, NVRI, NVT, NWS, NWSA, NX, NXPI, NXT, NYT, OC, OGN, OKTA, OMC, OMCL, OPTU, OPY, OSIS, OSK, OTEX, OWL, PAHC, PANW, PATH, PAYO, PCOR, PEN, PEP, PFE, PFG, PG, PGY, PJT, PLTK, PLTR, PLUS, PM, PNR, POST, POWL, PPG, PPIH, PRAA, PRGO, PSN, PSTG, PTC, PTEN, PVH, PZZA, QDEL, QLYS, RBBN, RELL, REZI, RGA, RHI, RIG, RILY, RMNI, ROP, RPD, RPM, RS, RSVR, RTX, RYAN, S, SABR, SANM, SDOT, SDRL, SEDG, SEE, SF, SHW, SKIL, SLGN, SMCI, SMHI, SNA, SNDK, SNEX, SNOW, SOLV, SPGI, SPXC, STE, STEP, STGW, STX, SXC, SXT, SYK, TBCH, TDC, TDW, TDY, TEAD, TEL, TENB, TER, TEX, TFX, THR, TISI, TKO, TKR, TLRY, TMO, TNC, TRMB, TROX, TSN, TT, TTD, TTEC, TTI, TTMI, TTWO, TW, TWST, TXN, U, UCTT, UFPI, ULS, UP, VAL, VCYT, VECO, VEEV, VFC, VNT, VPG, VREX, VRNS, VRT, VRTX, VSAT, VSH, VTOL, VVX, VYX, WAB, WAT, WBD, WCC, WDAY, WDC, WFRD, WHR, WING, WKC, WLFC, WMG, WMS, WST, WTM, WTS, WTW, WU, WYNN, XOM, XPER, XRAY, XRX, XYL, YOU, YUM, ZBH, ZBRA, ZD, ZIP, ZM, ZS, ZTS
---
**Methodology:** Data extracted from SEC EDGAR filings (10-K, 10-Q Exhibit 21 subsidiary lists, Item 2 facilities, risk factors) for ~2,600 US-listed companies. Queried by country/jurisdiction fields matching 13 Middle Eastern countries plus variants. This captures legally disclosed entities there may be additional exposure through JVs, distribution agreements, or revenue streams not captured in subsidiary filings.
**Position:** No positions taken based on this analysis. Not financial advice.

I own Salesforce (CRM). Thankfully less than I once did many years ago. Nearly every Fortune 500 company uses it and most use some form of customization that can’t be replaced without additional development and hosting costs. I don’t think that makes it safe, necessarily. But I want to see how lazy these companies really are before I sell. Something tells me that most companies have higher priority technology projects on their list than to customize a new platform and safely transfer millions of records when Salesforce is doing the job acceptably. If I am wrong, I will take the loss just like I have done dozens of times before.

CRM 200c expired. SOFI 20c expired.
I know it's not theta, but I went long SOFI APR 17c.

I own AMGN.
It is part of the DOW 30, and is almost always on the Dogs of the DOW list. I own eight of the DOW 30 list.
If you want old, stodgy dividend stocks, this is a good place to start.
But do research on the companies.
Two DOW 30 components were WAG and INTC, both were removed in 2024.
It is possible that CRM is a super DOG of the DOW. It is down 40% from its high in 2025. Pays a small dividend. I do not own CRM and I have never owned CRM.

If you’re worried about open ai profitability I think you are sorely mistaken. AMZN and CRM are great examples of 20 year stock returns with no profits, focus on u it economics. If you have a chance to be one of 2 or 3 players dominating the next way humans interact digitally you burn cash and expand. Its that simple

"*Nobody* is going to squander billions of dollars to build a new Salesforce because it’s now cheaper to do the coding part. It would be economic suicide.'
A company making a Saas product in another vertical could enter the CRM vertical. The extra infrastructure cost would be marginal.

Im also a 15 year SaaS veteran. Block wasn’t using 4000 enterprise seats. Also, Salesforce is in trouble, and a lousy investment bet.
Enterprise salespeople (until we are replaced by more annoying sales robots you will hate even more) rely more on AI services that glean data directly from calls and emails, and less the CRM record layer. Manually updating Salesforce is miserable. The marketing cloud is an OK CDP. Tableau is toast. Slack might actually house some good data, I dont know. They have other ways of making money. But there will be a K shaped software economy. Data moats and data collaboration with humans and agents will be the use cases for growth. You need proprietary data.
Also, the SaaS doom porn assumes agents freely access all content. There will be authenticated, paywalled walled gardens holding the most price data in a fortress. Bloomberg doesn’t give its data away for free, neither will any of the smart data owners of the future. If all you have is code, you’re cooked.

Down slightly from earnings this week.
IC on DELL
PCS on HD, NVDA
CCS on CIFR, WDAY, CRM, EOSE, DUOL

!banbet CRM 210 1w

Honestly we’re pretty close if not already seen the software bottom. All the bigger ones like CRM, INTU, WDAY, all dumped after earnings then completely recovered and went green the day after. Suggests the stocks are totally washed out and investors are confident buying dips.

CRM $225s by March 20.

All that money leaving the Mag 7 is funneling right into CRM who has committed up to $50b in buybacks (AKA 1/3 of their valuation). Don't fight the Benioff.

Ah yes let me build my own CRM with salesforce like capabilities because it’s “expensive” , it’s nothing much for big enterprises ( I work at fortune 100 ) and the roi on these SaaS tools is what keeps the customers .
You have no idea what you talking about , salesforce have 92% retention rate