CRM
Salesforce, Inc.
stock NYSE

The supply chain is way more complex than then what you enumerate. Way more. Large companies spend magnitude more on erp than on crm. Loads of master data and business rules on sourcing, mfg, supply chain, employees and yes clients. Googled how much the erp of a big Pharma like would have costed and it mentions between a quarter and half a billion $.
Gemini: “Typically, an ERP implementation costs **2x to 4x more** than a CRM deployment for the exact same company.”

**Salesforce (CRM) — Intrinsic value per share** (trading at $163 today; base case ★ = $210)
|Revenue CAGR (10yr) ↓ / Yr-10 GAAP op margin →|24%|26%|28%|30%|32%|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|**6%**|$133|$145|$156|$168|$179|
|**8%**|$154|$167|$181|$195|$208|
|**10%**|$178|$194|**$210 ★**|$226|$242|
|**12%**|$206|$225|$244|$263|$282|
|**14%**|$238|$260|$283|$305|$328|
SaaS names got hit hard on AI fears and the multiples collapsed. But there's been a bounce lately, and that's the real question: dead cat, or a true re-rating?
Over this **SaaSpocalypse series** I'll run through multiple SaaS stocks the same way each time: back-of-the-envelope math, a few honest lines on whether AI is actually a risk here or not. No 15-minute essays.
**AI Risk: Medium -** Agents could compress seat counts, owns the customer system-of-record, deep enterprise workflows, Data Cloud, Slack, and is already monetizing Agentforce/Data 360 at scale.
>
**Sensitivity Matrix:** downside risk is quite low even at compressed margins
**Salesforce (CRM) — Intrinsic value per share** (trading at $163 today; base case ★ = $210)
|Revenue CAGR (10yr) ↓ / Yr-10 GAAP op margin →|24%|26%|28%|30%|32%|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|**6%**|$133|$145|$156|$168|$179|
|**8%**|$154|$167|$181|$195|$208|
|**10%**|$178|$194|**$210 ★**|$226|$242|
|**12%**|$206|$225|$244|$263|$282|
|**14%**|$238|$260|$283|$305|$328|

I don't agree as I think ADBE still sucks ass. But, props for the guts in gambling that much and giving it enough time.
If I were to bet on shit software, I might go with NOW or CRM.

You're welcome! You're doing good so far. Fortunately NOW is a good company. Just remember, it's a marathon, not a sprint. NOW is a good buy. People are talking like SAAS is dead but they are wrong, at least when it comes to CRM and NOW. Analysts are mixed about PLTR though but man, they are a cash cow, which is good. Analysts are mixed on SAAS but Service Now is a good company. They are profitable, most say they are a buy and long term hold. Morning Star rates them as a 4 out of 5 with Economic Moat being Narrow. Learn this term, MOAT. I've been watching now and despite being in IT, software isn't my Jam but I'd probably take flier on it since also like making money lol Seeking Alpha, which is an aggregator of analysts new and their own rating systems notes that SA analysts as a "buy" and Wall Street as a "strong buy". Quant rating is a hold.
Another thing, just because you like a company, don't necessarily just invest in them just because you like them without doing research. I'm in tech and have a passion for tech, so that's what I lean towards since I also know it. But I have some consumer staples and a few other areas to diversify.
Know 52W H & Lows and PE Ratio.
You can't time the market, it really is about length in market. When everyone is panicking selling, it's usually a good time to buy but have to watch the trend and news so you don't buy the dip on a falling knife.
Buying in small blocks is good to for dollar cost averaging and if you're unsure if a stock is starting to take off or if it's going to dip.

Salesforce (CRM.US)$
sitting below every Vegas Tunnel EMA on the weekly. EMA576 at 182, EMA676 at 170, price at 166. Either genuinely broken or the most oversold it's been in years.
Morningstar flagged Fair Value at $280 vs current $166, 68% gap. Agentforce momentum real, switching costs high, still only 30% of a market growing 10% a year. Two minutes to get the full picture.
Chart says oversold. Fundamental Engine says deeply undervalued. Both pointing the same way. Started building a long here, not looking for a new all-time high, just riding the mean reversion back toward the tunnel.

I pick with "never to sell" horizon.....pays off as winners pull any or all losers by several margins (and yes I have picked lasers too). It's only when I see the true fundamental of business challenged or disrupted I exit....no emotional bias
Tech - Google Microsoft Amazon Meta Nvidia AMD Broadcom
I have been loading up on "disrupted by AI" theme stocks - Adobe, CRM, NOW, Pubmatic, Twilio, Duolingo, Spotify
And last bet purely asymmetric Ford. Picked up because my friend works in EV and he told me how Ford is repurposing them to BESS which I feel will be huge catalyst (Ford gets valued as traditional automaker but if their pivot to Ford Energy is successful imagine re ratings, earnings growth and multiples it can command maybe not as Tesla but still). Worse case it pays be 5% dividend so 20yrs all paid!

I paper handed the ones below at those prices:
Nvidia at 130.
Alphabet at 200.
Nebius at 90.
Reddit at 150.
Hood at 50.
Apple at 240.
ASML at 750.
Always sold for profits but they could have been so much more. The biggest regret is ASML and NBIS. Recently bought MSFT, NOW and CRM. Hopefully will paperhand a bit late this time.

Totally agree, enterprise owners aren't just gonna hand the keys to some big model. It'll come through trusted SaaS providers like CRM, NOW, or PLTR that already sit inside the firewall.

I don’t trade it because it’s too much of a meme stock. Too many people with strong feelings for and against. Too political and too much potential for government influence. And frankly like many I don’t really understand their business. I buy what I know and I know enterprise s/w like SAP, CRM,NOW, CRWD, Oracle, IBM from my time working for IBM.

Gonna buy some CRM now

Buying software. CRM/NOW/PLTR

Solve your problem first.
I can vibe code my own NVO, MSFT and CRM value stock pumping app

Unfortunately, some stocks which went down continue to go down further despite having strong profits Eg $CRM

People always ask why a stock is going down, but they never ask if the original price was justified.
$CRM has no moat! The large user base and high switching costs can maybe promise that current users won't leave, but it doesn't guarantee any growth. There are literally hundreds of competitors, and now with AI, it's easier than ever to build software and compete with them.
AI agents are also breaking the pay-per-seat pricing model. Do you really think in 5 or 10 years people will still use their ugly UI and messy infra?

the "when is my thesis no longer valid" question is the hard part, and honestly most people never define it in advance, which is why they hold broken theses too long. the fix that works: for each of ADBE/NOW/CRM, write down the specific thing that would prove you wrong *before* you need to decide. not "if it drops," but "if net revenue retention falls below X" or "if seat growth stalls two quarters running." then you're checking against a pre-committed line instead of rationalizing in the moment.
on the tracking mechanics, most people cobble together earnings calendars, google alerts, and a spreadsheet, and it falls apart around 5+ names because you can't tell signal from noise. the software names especially, there's so much macro-driven price movement that has nothing to do with the actual businesses.
disclosure since it's relevant: i built a tool for this exact workflow, [mythesis.ai](http://mythesis.ai) you write your thesis and the conditions, it watches filings, earnings and news against them and flags only when something material hits, quiet otherwise. free to use. mentioning it because it's literally the question you asked, not to spam.
the ADBE/NOW/CRM software debate is a good stress test for this actually, the bull and bear cases are both articulable, so they're easy to write falsifiable theses for.

Packaged food is dead money - all down or flat past 10 years. They are facing rising costs but cannot raise prices too much or lose sales to generics and store brands.
If you are buying it for capital appreciation, just buy VOO. If you ware buying it for dividend, just buy SCHD. SCHD will give you both NAV and distribution growth.
With software such as CRM and NOW, those companies are growing revenue and earnings. CRM has been growing distributions too. That is value because beatup up share price despite consistent growth. With your packaged foods, you have flat, low, declining growth and all over the map up and down earnings. That is not value, it's deserved/fair valuation.

>HUBS has around 300,000 customers; twice of CRM's about 150.000 customers.
CRM owns Slack which has \~200K paying customers, and Tableau which has \~100k.

Not particularly sure. But CRM, ADBE and NOW look decent. Dont forget MSFT.

CRM, INTU, SAP, NOW, and ADBE

Honestly the winners of a cooling off in the ai trade, because of an overbuild like you're saying probably would just be a rotation into what hasn't worked and whats sold off due to the ai narrative. Which would mainly be SaaS stocks like MSFT, ADBE, INTU, NOW, CRM and others