CRM
Salesforce, Inc.
stock NYSE

the "when is my thesis no longer valid" question is the hard part, and honestly most people never define it in advance, which is why they hold broken theses too long. the fix that works: for each of ADBE/NOW/CRM, write down the specific thing that would prove you wrong *before* you need to decide. not "if it drops," but "if net revenue retention falls below X" or "if seat growth stalls two quarters running." then you're checking against a pre-committed line instead of rationalizing in the moment.
on the tracking mechanics, most people cobble together earnings calendars, google alerts, and a spreadsheet, and it falls apart around 5+ names because you can't tell signal from noise. the software names especially, there's so much macro-driven price movement that has nothing to do with the actual businesses.
disclosure since it's relevant: i built a tool for this exact workflow, [mythesis.ai](http://mythesis.ai) you write your thesis and the conditions, it watches filings, earnings and news against them and flags only when something material hits, quiet otherwise. free to use. mentioning it because it's literally the question you asked, not to spam.
the ADBE/NOW/CRM software debate is a good stress test for this actually, the bull and bear cases are both articulable, so they're easy to write falsifiable theses for.

Packaged food is dead money - all down or flat past 10 years. They are facing rising costs but cannot raise prices too much or lose sales to generics and store brands.
If you are buying it for capital appreciation, just buy VOO. If you ware buying it for dividend, just buy SCHD. SCHD will give you both NAV and distribution growth.
With software such as CRM and NOW, those companies are growing revenue and earnings. CRM has been growing distributions too. That is value because beatup up share price despite consistent growth. With your packaged foods, you have flat, low, declining growth and all over the map up and down earnings. That is not value, it's deserved/fair valuation.

>HUBS has around 300,000 customers; twice of CRM's about 150.000 customers.
CRM owns Slack which has \~200K paying customers, and Tableau which has \~100k.

Not particularly sure. But CRM, ADBE and NOW look decent. Dont forget MSFT.

CRM, INTU, SAP, NOW, and ADBE

Honestly the winners of a cooling off in the ai trade, because of an overbuild like you're saying probably would just be a rotation into what hasn't worked and whats sold off due to the ai narrative. Which would mainly be SaaS stocks like MSFT, ADBE, INTU, NOW, CRM and others

$CRM $ABDE easy

This is impressive, but I think the hard part starts after the app works. A CRM is not just screens and stress tests, it is permissions, audit trails, customer data, reliability, support workflows, backups, and weird edge cases. Claude Code can move fast, but I would still put a review layer around it. Traycer fits that kind of spec, task, and review workflow.

before lol. still +10% but its funny when it's up that today. but CRM took out a 25 billion dollar move to buy their own stock earlier this year at a higher price than current price and respect a big ball move like that. they print money. chart showed selling exhausting and put in a higher low, and claude is helping implement salesforce, not replace it.

Anyone else think of Criminal when they see CRM? Like how tf is that Salesforce?

Ha — I'll take "reads like an AI" as a formatting compliment and move on.
The three-precedent frame is genuinely better than my dichotomy, so point taken: stents vs TAVR vs Amulet is the right way to bound it, and if PFA lands TAVR-ish, then yes — growth survives, the 2028 margin bridge is what breaks. We've converged on the same verdict from opposite directions.
One wrinkle before I fully buy the TAVR analogy though: console-plus-catheter is razor-and-blade economics, and that changes *where* pricing pressure lands. Consoles are the switching cost, catheters are the recurring revenue — so the rational entrant move is to give the console away to seize labs and fight on catheter ASP. TAVR never had that structure; the valve *is* the whole ticket. If Medtronic discounts hardware to buy installed base (and bundling with CRM is exactly the balance sheet to do it with), catheter erosion could run hotter than TAVR's low single digits even while the installed-base stickiness you describe holds. Stickiness protects share; it doesn't protect blade pricing once both consoles are in the lab.
And your Amulet counter cuts both ways: if a fully credentialed entrant barely moved WATCHMAN, why is management guiding it flat? Either the franchise is stickier than the guide (bullish, the growth cut was kitchen-sinking) or something beyond competition is eroding it (and the benign precedent doesn't apply). That gap is worth as much attention as EP pricing on the 29th.
The Penumbra timestamp is your point, not mine — signed inside the alleged nondisclosure window is a genuinely damning detail and I'm stealing it. Agreed on the resolution: July 29, pricing commentary over volume. Good sparring.

sold half my HOOD position to fund a starter in CRM yesterday lol

AI is significantly deeper than just being a chatbot, and while I think it is a bubble, its also not going away and it's going to make some big shifts in the market in terms of products.
As a general rule, I think that the job loss fears are overblown. Some people will definitely lose jobs over it, but its not going to be this economic collapse causing "no one works and can buy food" thing people are worried about. I already see a reaction happening in creative spaces where AI produces so much stuff that is just, well, generic looking that human made art for ads and branding and all this other stuff are getting more highly valued because it makes your product stand out from the generic AI productions. We've basically developed Canva on steroids for people to use, and creatives are still going to look at all the AI stuff and go "yea...well...have fun but this is my price."
The biggest thing that I see shifting is going to be an entire marketplace of bespoke software, and especially in the middle/lower markets. I have an under 30 person operation, and AI is going to let me eject CRM platforms from places like Salesforce from my tech stack forever. Custom software built to our needs, that we control, that we don't have to pay for in terms of licenses built on the back of AI doing the legwork. We pay 30k a year for just \*one\* CRM. Using available tools for hosting, app certification certificates with Microsoft, Claude or something connected to the app via API or MCP if we build out our own and we're looking at maybe $1,000 for the year in recurring hosting costs. If I'm feeling froggy, maybe I'll design to build some of the applications around a Halo Strix as a mini AI server and eat the one time hardware cost of $4k, but completely displace AI costs onto a local model that requests go to for generative content support.

This isn't going away. It might be a bubble, but its not going away.

An AI response for an AI question 😅
On where pricing settles, med-tech has run this experiment three times. Stents went duopoly-to-four-players and ASPs fell 30-40% because the devices weren't workflow-differentiated and GPOs dual-sourced easily. TAVR went duopoly and pricing eroded low single digits for years because of procedural stickiness and training lock-in. And LAAC itself is the third data point: Amulet entered against WATCHMAN fully credentialed in 2021 and barely moved share or price. My base case is PFA lands nearer TAVR, because the console-plus-catheter model creates installed-base switching costs and EP labs optimise for throughput, not unit price. The offset is Medtronic bundling PFA with CRM, which BSX can't match. Call it mid-single-digit annual ASP erosion, 100-150bps of group gross margin given back over a few years.
So on your dichotomy: high-single-digit growth survives, the 150bps margin expansion target to 2028 probably doesn't. Something gives and it's the margin guide.
One thing that makes your Penumbra point sharper than you framed it: the deal was signed January 15. The class action period runs to February 3. The biggest debt-funded deal since Guidant was agreed inside the window where shareholders allege the deceleration was known and undisclosed. Revealed preference with a timestamp.
Verdict-wise this moves me back to watch. The cheap case rested on margins holding, and that's now the contested variable on estimates that are still being cut. July 29 EP pricing commentary, not the volume print, is what resolves it.

Microsoft printed a huge volume green on the daily which used to be a good indicator for reversal, NOW hasnt hit a new low like pretty much all other saas. CRM and Intuit look like value on financials but are grinding lower. Margin expansion and fcf yield are good things to look for.

Gimme some fresh ideas for this new reality 😜 Old story is overplayed, I think. And, old style software like CRM should get attention again.

more details on the customers: yes they're growing but the key question is when are they going to stop growing? And damn, looks like this time is not there yet, with a plateau estimated after 2032 ( [https://app.rast.guru/?company=Hubspot](https://app.rast.guru/?company=Hubspot) ).
looks like investors fear that people will vibecode their own CRM, but if this was the case, the S-curve of the customers would have already been impacted, which is clearly not the case.

Love CRM and HUBS! I always DCA both (and a few other SaaS picks) every time they drop below my average. This SaaS downtrend is a potential value investor dream scenario, but it could take a while to play out.

Good analysis.
I own CRM and TEAM instead of HUBS though

HUBS (& CRM) - A short write up