CRM
Salesforce, Inc.
stock NYSE

Thx. Why not NOW or CRM?

Yeah I’m pretty long GOOG and CRM. That’s the future AI play.

the self driving analogy is really good, the failure mode especially. a stalled car stops, a confused agent confidently does the wrong thing at scale
funny thing is if you're right about LLMs plateauing, that's almost the strongest CRM bull case there is. agents that only work in clean structured environments forever means whoever owns the clean structured environment owns the value. your bear case on the tech is a bull case on your stock lol
the plateau question itself i'm less sure about, the last two years humbled everyone who called a ceiling. but positioning-wise it almost doesn't matter, both branches favor the data owners

Thank god for my CRM calls

Listen folks, I'm not a tech bro and I know nothing about this AI stuff. I don't care how it works, it's just hype and buzzwords for me. However, I've never made so much easy money in my life and I wanted to share a few insights on how I did it.
My strategy for the past 3 years has been to invest in a company as soon as they use the word AI in their brand. This has worked very well for me and a few of my friends across several stocks. For example, as soon as Intel has rebranded to "Built for AI", we knew that it was about to skyrocket, and sure enough, the green candles started to show up in the next weeks.
It worked so well that I've created an index called the Frequency AI Ratio Tracker (FART). It's basically the amount of time the word "AI" is used on a company's homepage. For example, AMD currently has 60 occurrences of the word "AI" on their homepage for roughly 876 words in total, meaning a ratio of 6.85%.
To put that in perspective: statistically, 1 out of every 15 words on AMD's homepage is "AI". That is a **critical-level**, enterprise-grade FART score and it was a no-brainer once I discovered that out. The higher the score is, the greater the potential was.
However, for the first time in the past 3 years, I have a strange feeling that this strategy is no longer working and the momentum is starting to fade away. Looking at all the OG companies from the .com bubble, it sure looks like a peak to me, and I've actually started to use a reversed-FART strategy since July 4th. The higher the score is, the greater the risk of a downfall once the AI bubble pops.
[Some OG stocks](https://preview.redd.it/yqpbos7uo7fh1.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=40823c3fb4c3a05d4f200f85395622ed3ece69ae)
The General Rule of Thumb for the reversed-FART stategy:
0%: Low risk
0.1% – 2%: Medium risk
2% – 5%: High risk
> 5%: Extreme risk
Here's the most recent compiled version of FART for some tech companies as of July 24th.
==========================================================================
Name of company | Stock | Total Words | AI Mentions | FART Score
==========================================================================
AMD | AMD | 876 | 60 | 6.85 %
NVIDIA | NVDA | 2663 | 115 | 4.32 %
Oracle | ORCL | 786 | 27 | 3.44 %
ServiceNow | NOW | 651 | 22 | 3.38 %
Qualcomm | QCOM | 765 | 24 | 3.14 %
Arm Holdings | ARM | 862 | 26 | 3.02 %
Cisco Systems | CSCO | 450 | 13 | 2.89 %
SAP | SAP | 1004 | 25 | 2.49 %
IBM | IBM | 560 | 11 | 1.96 %
Micron Technology | MU | 635 | 12 | 1.89 %
Microsoft | MSFT | 645 | 10 | 1.55 %
Broadcom | AVGO | 462 | 7 | 1.52 %
Salesforce | CRM | 936 | 14 | 1.50 %
Samsung Electronics | 005930.KS| 375 | 5 | 1.33 %
Meta Platforms | META | 303 | 4 | 1.32 %
Alphabet (Google) | GOOGL | 422 | 4 | 0.95 %
TSMC | TSM | 688 | 6 | 0.87 %
Intel | INTC | 245 | 2 | 0.82 %
Palantir | PLTR | 3151 | 23 | 0.73 %
SK Hynix | 000660.KS| 167 | 1 | 0.60 %
Amazon | AMZN | 355 | 2 | 0.56 %
Applied Materials | AMAT | 209 | 1 | 0.48 %
ASML | ASML | 596 | 1 | 0.17 %
Corning | GLW | 576 | 1 | 0.17 %
Apple | AAPL | 883 | 1 | 0.11 %
Tesla | TSLA | 181 | 0 | 0.00 %
Lam Research | LRCX | 275 | 0 | 0.00 %
*Legal notice: I am dumb and this is not financial advise. This was compiled by hand by copy-pasting in Microsoft Word like a fool and searching for the word AI. Consider compiling your own data and use FART at your own risk. I am not responsable for any loss based on this strategy. The level of risk estimated by FART was established out of thin air. Ask your financial adviser about FART.*

Yes I agree, agentic AI for core business functions won’t be free and companies like CRM if they stay ahead of the curve can monetise it even if seat numbers come down. MSFT doing the same with co-pilot - adding more layers of AI enable value added to its core enterprise solutions

I’ll preface this with I actually work implementing agentic AI and also use agentic AI at my work. So I feel like I have a better grasp on its strengths and weaknesses then others.
I don’t disagree that seat based pricing is more exposed but I don’t think the risk outweighs how oversold CRM is. A forward P/E ratio of 11 is insane given their growth rate.
1- So far the seat lost hasn’t materialized, this doesn’t surprise me as sales and customer service are some of the hardest things to replace with agentic AI
2- CRM’s pricing power and customer retention rates also decreases the risk of revenue loss from less seats. Management has added AI agents and increased the pricing of current seats. Which leads me to point 3…
3- given that CRM has all the data, and the structure of their business, management argues that AI will ultimately help them, not hurt them. I agree with management on this.
So given their ungodly low valuation, lack of paint to their core business, and rosy guidance. I think they are a very good value.

It's not always that clear-cut unfortunately. Example: how about CRM or ADBE right now? The businesses under the hood seem intact, but is that going to remain the case 5 years from now?

yeah agree on adp/paychex, nobody's ripping out payroll over a chatgpt demo. compliance and 50 states of tax law is the actual moat there
less sure about CRM personally, seat based pricing feels more exposed if agents actually replace seats. curious if you see that differently

ADP, paychex, and CRM. I think most SAAS is oversold due to vague AI fears. Hasn’t hit the bottom line and I don’t see anyone vibecoding a replacement for any of those 3. Especially ADP and paychex.

1.5 years. I would say CRM will give us a nice little boost. And i gotta force yourself to buy when u think ur facts and ur reasoning are right and u have high conviction. Then u buy. It takes balls because it's scary

NOW, CRM

Not sure how that's possible. BRBR is down 50% in the past 5 years. CRM is also down 37% in the last 5 years. Same for Adbe. I'm going to need to see proof before I believe you're up on any of those tickers..

Nice. I’m holding 9k shares NOWL @4 and 5K shares CRM around 165

Sold puts on CRM.

Definitely. I sold some cash secured puts on CRM today. One contract is only $14,800 and it expires in 2 weeks to make a premium of $215. 30%-40% annual return assuming it expires every time. Stick to a few stocks that you like.

Feels like this has been my port all year.
MSFT, GOOGL, META, ADBE, CRM, INTU, SAP, SHOP.
I picked ALL the winners at the exact right time (not)

Sap? Hah. Wait till you hear about the disruptive innovator: CRM. And the even more futuristic: FIG my balls!

CRM will be up like 30%

Where is the floor for software?..
ADBE, CRM, SAP, SHOP.. They've all contributed to absolutely nuking my port and idek how I'm gonna come back from this