CRM
Salesforce, Inc.
stock NYSE

I own $VEEV and I'm actually up from my cost basis. I think you're missing the actual risks.
- Migration away from Salesforce to their in-house Vault CRM. Already seems like 6 of their top 20 customers are moving to Salesforce Health Cloud. That's kind of priced in already, but if we hear more customers moving away the stock's gonna tank.
- Veeva is quite a bit behind (say) Salesforce in terms of agentification of their platform. Their Falcon platform is still early versus something like Agentforce which is 2+ years old. It's hard to say whether this will be fine or not long term, but I think it's complacency on their part, not wisdom.

**Description**: Veeva Systems is a CRM & cloud computing company specializing in software for the life sciences industry. They offer a range of cloud-based applications tailored to the specific needs of these industries, including products for CRM, managing clinical trials, regulatory compliance, sales, and marketing.
**Business Segments:**
1. **Subscription-Based Revenue:**
1. **Veeva Development Cloud**: This segment serves R&D teams. It involves Vault, a platform that enables content sharing with third parties while ensuring full compliance with regulations. It includes products for Vault Clinical, such as eTMF (clinical trial master file), CTMS (organize trial data), EDC (captures data), Safety Data (collects and organizes adverse event information), and RIM Submission (enables standardization of information). It also includes products for Clinical Data (electronic data capture), Vault Regulatory (supports regulatory submission workflows), and Vault Safety (pharmacovigilance).
2. **Veeva Quality Cloud**: Enables life science partners to develop and manufacture products more efficiently. This includes Vault QMS (quality management systems), Quality Docs to manage regulated content, as well as lab solutions, which enable quality control to optimize batch release testing, stability study management, and environmental monitoring.
3. **Veeva Commercial Cloud**: Centered around Veeva's CRM offering and supports life sciences company’s sales & marketing activities. Outside of the CRM, it involves content generation, medical products, data management, and Crossix.
4. **Veeva Data Cloud**: Largely resembles IQVIA’s product suite by providing data for customer reference, real-time intelligence, and prescriber and sales data from the US market.
2. **Professional Services and Support**: Assistance with implementations of custom Veeva solutions as well as additional design and configuration.
**PBC Identification**: Veeva is the first ever public company to transition to a Public Benefit Corporation (PBC). As a PBC, Veeva must prioritize a specific social or environmental public benefit alongside generating profits. Therefore, it is legally obligated to consider the interests of stakeholders like employees and the community alongside shareholder returns. For those who prioritize companies who do things differently and value Warren Buffett’s “Institutional Imperative,” this would definitely check the box. Their public governance stance reinforces their long-term mindset.
**Competitive Advantages**:
* *Brand Power and High Market Share*: Veeva enjoys strong brand recognition and customer satisfaction within the life sciences CRM market (>80% share of life sciences CRM seats in the industry)
* *Barriers to entry*: Building a platform tailored to the complex needs of the life sciences industry requires industry expertise, regulatory compliance knowledge, and understanding of scientific workflows
* *Switching Costs*: Switching platforms in the life sciences industry can be risky due to problems that could arise in data migration, customized configurations, and user training needs.
* *Intangible Assets*: Veeva's deep domain expertise in the life sciences industry, strong brand recognition, established customer base, and comprehensive software suite are all valuable intangible assets
**Historical Growth**: Over the past decade ending in 2025, Veeva grew revenue at around 23% per year. Over the same time frame, Veeva grew free cash flow per share at over 35%, despite share dilution of nearly 1.5% per year.
**Returns on Capital**: Veeva has averaged \~27% ROIC over the past decade ending in 2025. The company has consistently been able to return above-average returns on capital.
**Balance Sheet**: The balance sheet is pristine, with zero long-term or short-term debt. They have a net cash position of over $5 Billion (depending on recent share buybacks and acquisition costs).
**Cash Conversion**: For subscription services, customers pay in advance (monthly, quarterly, or annually). This creates negative working capital since the company receives cash before recognizing revenue. Cash conversion (free cash flow/net income), therefore, is unusually high at 146% averaged over the past decade, although their unusually high SBC distorts their free cash flow upwards.
**Pricing Power**: Veeva famously did not raise prices for their software products from 2008-2021 or so. In their contracts, they implement annual price increases in line with inflation or 4%, whichever is lower. Rather than a value-extracting service provider, they aim to be a partner for their Pharma customers. This has reinforced consistency and a mutually beneficial relationship.
**Risks**: No company comes without risks.
* *Customer Concentration Risks*: In their fiscal years ended 2025, 2024, and 2023, their top 10 customers accounted for 28%, 28%, and 29% of their total revenue, respectfully.
* *Operational Dependencies*: Veeva has used AWS for data centers since 2017 (renewed 10 year partnership in 2025).
* *Technological Disruption*: VEEV operates an enterprise software platform. There is high and fierce competition amongst other technology providers for life sciences as well as CRM providers like Salesforce. Customers could, in theory, also spend capital on developing internal products tailored to their own needs.
* *Customer Consolidation*: Consolidation within the life sciences industry has accelerated in recent years, and this trend could continue. With fewer customers comprising a larger percentage of revenue, negotiating power against these companies dwindle.
Veeva is clearly a Quality Company that is trading down due to narrative-based reasons. On a fundamental basis, the engine keeps on chugging, and there are no signs of slowing down. Their partnership-based model and tendency to keep prices low where possible also makes it less likely that pharma clients will leave for competitors, especially given the long-term nature of existing relationships.
What do you all think about Veeva? Agree or Disagree? Other thoughts?

Do you recall what your average purchase price was?
I just added to CRM and 472 in SSNC, 866 IN SCHW.

**Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) — NasdaqGS**
Technology · Software - Infrastructure · Mega cap · USD $373.02 (as of Jul 1, 2026)


**Recommendation: Buy — High conviction**


One of the world's highest-quality software businesses is available at its cheapest valuation in years. The 33% decline from its high has little to do with business deterioration — Azure is growing 40%, AI revenue hit a $37B run rate (+123% YoY), and margins remain elite — and everything to do with macro rotation and CapEx anxiety. At 19.3x forward earnings with 18% revenue growth, the downside is protected by a fortress balance sheet (0.26x net debt/EBITDA), and the upside from AI monetization is real and underappreciated at today's price.


---


**What it does**


Microsoft operates through three segments: Productivity and Business Processes (Microsoft 365 commercial and consumer subscriptions, LinkedIn, Dynamics 365 ERP/CRM), Intelligent Cloud (Azure, GitHub, Nuance, server products), and More Personal Computing (Windows OEM licensing, Xbox hardware/Game Pass, Surface devices, Bing and Copilot advertising). The company generates the majority of revenue from commercial cloud subscriptions and enterprise software, with Azure and AI services (Copilot, Azure OpenAI) becoming increasingly central to growth. Gaming contributes through Xbox content, Game Pass subscriptions, and hardware sales.


---


**Snapshot**


| Metric | Value | Context |
|--------|-------|---------|
| Forward P/E | 19.3x | Cheapest level in ~5 years vs. its own history; roughly 40% below its 3-year average multiple |
| Trailing P/E | 22.2x | Down from ~35x at the 52-week high — multiple compression is the entire drawdown story |
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 18.3% | Accelerating; Azure (+40%) and AI (+123%) driving above the 15% long-term trend |
| Operating margin | 46.3% | Elite — higher than Apple, Google, or virtually any tech peer at this scale |
| ROE | 34.0% | Best-in-class capital returns; every dollar of equity generates $0.34 of profit |
| Net debt / EBITDA | 0.26x | Minimal leverage — $78B cash vs $125B debt; balance sheet is a source of strength, not concern |
| FCF yield | 1.34% | Low because massive CapEx ($133B trailing) is being reinvested into AI infrastructure, not lost |
| PEG ratio | 1.15 | Below 1.5 = reasonable for a quality compounder growing earnings 23% |
| 52-week range position | 11.6% | Near the bottom — the market has already priced in substantial pessimism |
| Short interest | 1.28% / 2.5 days | Negligible; no one is betting aggressively against this business |


---


**Why**


-
**Valuation is compelling for the quality on offer.**
At 19.3x forward earnings, Microsoft trades at a PEG of 1.15 — meaning you're paying barely more than 1x its growth rate for 46% operating margins, 34% ROE, and near-zero net leverage. The same business commanded 30–35x earnings as recently as 2024. The 33% decline is almost entirely multiple compression, not deterioration.


-
**The underlying business is accelerating, not slowing.**
Azure revenue grew 40% in the most recent quarter. The AI business hit a $37B annual revenue run rate, up 123% year-over-year. Revenue growth of 18.3% is the highest in years and is driven by durable cloud migration and enterprise AI adoption, not one-time items.


-
**The CapEx fear is real but survivable — and may be overpriced in the stock.**
Microsoft plans $190B in 2026 CapEx, well above trailing FCF. That is a risk. But operating cash flow is $170B — the business is a cash machine, not burning cash. Net debt/EBITDA of 0.26x means Microsoft could double its debt load and still be conservatively leveraged. The AI investment is a vote of confidence by management, not a distress signal, and early revenue returns ($37B run rate, +123%) are impressive.


-
**Net margin (39.3%) sits below operating margin (46.3%) as it should**
— a clean read. Profit quality is genuine; no one-off items flattering the bottom line. Earnings grew 23%, in line with revenue acceleration, and backed by real cash generation.


-
**Sentiment is washed out, not broken.**
Short interest is negligible (1.28%). Institutions still own 76% of the company. The stock is 16.6% below its 200-day moving average with a death cross — technically ugly, but contrarian indicators for a business that hasn't fundamentally weakened. This is often when disciplined buyers step in.


---


**Risks & flags**


-
**CapEx overhang is the #1 risk.**
$190B in planned 2026 investment dwarfs trailing FCF. If Azure/AI revenue growth decelerates meaningfully, those dollars could produce poor returns, compressing margins and earnings for years. This is the bear case, and it is credible — but the asymmetry check shows limited downside (fortress balance sheet, $78B cash) against substantial upside if the investment pays off.


-
**OpenAI relationship fracture.**
The restructured agreement ended Azure's exclusivity on OpenAI models. A reported $50B OpenAI-Amazon cloud partnership could shift AI workloads to AWS. This weakens Azure's AI moat and is the single largest strategic risk specific to Microsoft vs. hyperscaler peers. It bears watching, but Azure's 40% growth suggests it hasn't yet damaged momentum.


-
**Technical / sentiment headwind.**
The stock is down ~21% YTD and 24% over the past year. A death cross is in place. Near-term price action could remain weak, especially with tech rotation underway. This is a risk to entry timing, not to the durable thesis — but it means patience may be needed.


---


**Catalysts & timing**


-
**Q4 FY2026 earnings — July 29, 28 days out.**
The next major event. Another strong Azure/AI print could begin to reverse sentiment. The last quarter beat by 5.2%. Normal calendar noise (not near enough to justify waiting), but an important proving ground for the AI revenue narrative post-OpenAI restructuring.
-
**Ex-dividend — August 20**
(~$0.91/quarter, 0.98% yield). Modest but growing; 5-year average yield was 0.79%, so the payout is trending up with earnings.
-
**OpenAI-Amazon cloud partnership developments.**
Any clarity — positive (deal falls through) or negative (deal solidifies) — would be a material catalyst given current uncertainty.


---


**Bottom line**


You don't own MSFT, and this is one of the more attractive entry points in years. The business is elite — elite margins, elite returns, elite growth — but the stock is priced at a discount to history because of CapEx anxiety and an OpenAI fear that may or may not materialize. That is the textbook definition of a buyable setup: protected downside (balance sheet), real upside (AI monetization, Azure acceleration), and a price that already embeds the bad news. Buy now; the earnings catalyst in 28 days is a potential re-rating trigger, not a reason to wait.

CRM or INTU for longer term value? (Yes, I know value isn’t what we do here etc etc)

You're hitting semis at the top of their cycles. Look to beaten up software names like NOW, CRM and integrators like ACN. These will be the next winners of the AI cycle.

Customer relationshit management (CRM)

NOW, MSFT, TEAM (check their last earnings before say anything), CRM

Match Group is down massively since 2021. Narrative is that online dating is dead and Tinder has grown stale due to short term monetisation and predatory algorithms. The "new" ceo though, is breaking down silos, making dating fun again and reinstating focus on innovation. Match is performing massive share buybacks.
Link: [Match Group’s New Leadership: A Turnaround for the Dating Conglomerate – MultipleStrategy](https://multiplestrategy.com/2026/04/22/match-group-update/)
Link: [Exploring alternative valuation methods - an analysis of Match Group \[MTCH\] : r/ValueInvesting](https://www.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/comments/1td40t2/exploring_alternative_valuation_methods_an/)
Teleperformance is down YTD massively. Chat bots and agents are taking market share.
They recently changed their CEO to a ex AI consultant - planning to implement AI across their organisation.
The bull thesis is that chat bots are still not sufficient for comprehensive customer support, and at a PE around 6 - the market might be too aggressive in their assumptions on AI, chat bots and their market share. I am not really bullish, but it is a turn around case. The bear thesis (imo) is that Teleperformance AI capabilities are severely out competed in both verticals and horizontals. Furthermore, investing and implementing in AI might be expensive - at the cost of the thesis: cigar butt approach. It is still unclear, what direction they will end up taking.
Link: [Don’t feed the dog, with the cash cow! – MultipleStrategy](https://multiplestrategy.com/2026/06/29/in-investing-one-cant-be-afraid-of-every-shadow/)
Rockwool is my favourite. But it is not a turn around case - for anything but the share price. Rockwool had headwinds with asset seizures in Russia and elevated energy cost. This conservative quality company with plenty of tailwinds is now trading at around PE 15 (adjusted for the write downs).
Link: [Valuation Rockwool – MultipleStrategy](https://multiplestrategy.com/2026/02/03/rockwool-3/)
Other depressed multiples to historical norms can be found in consultancy or software.
I recently added SAP (3%), CRM (3%) & HUBSPOT (3%) to my portfolio.
I have shares in Rockwool (around 20%).
I have shares in Match Group (around 10%).

Not financial advice.
I can have made mistakes.
Do your own research.

The supply chain is way more complex than then what you enumerate. Way more. Large companies spend magnitude more on erp than on crm. Loads of master data and business rules on sourcing, mfg, supply chain, employees and yes clients. Googled how much the erp of a big Pharma like would have costed and it mentions between a quarter and half a billion $.
Gemini: “Typically, an ERP implementation costs **2x to 4x more** than a CRM deployment for the exact same company.”

**Salesforce (CRM) — Intrinsic value per share** (trading at $163 today; base case ★ = $210)
|Revenue CAGR (10yr) ↓ / Yr-10 GAAP op margin →|24%|26%|28%|30%|32%|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|**6%**|$133|$145|$156|$168|$179|
|**8%**|$154|$167|$181|$195|$208|
|**10%**|$178|$194|**$210 ★**|$226|$242|
|**12%**|$206|$225|$244|$263|$282|
|**14%**|$238|$260|$283|$305|$328|
SaaS names got hit hard on AI fears and the multiples collapsed. But there's been a bounce lately, and that's the real question: dead cat, or a true re-rating?
Over this **SaaSpocalypse series** I'll run through multiple SaaS stocks the same way each time: back-of-the-envelope math, a few honest lines on whether AI is actually a risk here or not. No 15-minute essays.
**AI Risk: Medium -** Agents could compress seat counts, owns the customer system-of-record, deep enterprise workflows, Data Cloud, Slack, and is already monetizing Agentforce/Data 360 at scale.
>
**Sensitivity Matrix:** downside risk is quite low even at compressed margins
**Salesforce (CRM) — Intrinsic value per share** (trading at $163 today; base case ★ = $210)
|Revenue CAGR (10yr) ↓ / Yr-10 GAAP op margin →|24%|26%|28%|30%|32%|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|**6%**|$133|$145|$156|$168|$179|
|**8%**|$154|$167|$181|$195|$208|
|**10%**|$178|$194|**$210 ★**|$226|$242|
|**12%**|$206|$225|$244|$263|$282|
|**14%**|$238|$260|$283|$305|$328|

I don't agree as I think ADBE still sucks ass. But, props for the guts in gambling that much and giving it enough time.
If I were to bet on shit software, I might go with NOW or CRM.

You're welcome! You're doing good so far. Fortunately NOW is a good company. Just remember, it's a marathon, not a sprint. NOW is a good buy. People are talking like SAAS is dead but they are wrong, at least when it comes to CRM and NOW. Analysts are mixed about PLTR though but man, they are a cash cow, which is good. Analysts are mixed on SAAS but Service Now is a good company. They are profitable, most say they are a buy and long term hold. Morning Star rates them as a 4 out of 5 with Economic Moat being Narrow. Learn this term, MOAT. I've been watching now and despite being in IT, software isn't my Jam but I'd probably take flier on it since also like making money lol Seeking Alpha, which is an aggregator of analysts new and their own rating systems notes that SA analysts as a "buy" and Wall Street as a "strong buy". Quant rating is a hold.
Another thing, just because you like a company, don't necessarily just invest in them just because you like them without doing research. I'm in tech and have a passion for tech, so that's what I lean towards since I also know it. But I have some consumer staples and a few other areas to diversify.
Know 52W H & Lows and PE Ratio.
You can't time the market, it really is about length in market. When everyone is panicking selling, it's usually a good time to buy but have to watch the trend and news so you don't buy the dip on a falling knife.
Buying in small blocks is good to for dollar cost averaging and if you're unsure if a stock is starting to take off or if it's going to dip.

Salesforce (CRM.US)$
sitting below every Vegas Tunnel EMA on the weekly. EMA576 at 182, EMA676 at 170, price at 166. Either genuinely broken or the most oversold it's been in years.
Morningstar flagged Fair Value at $280 vs current $166, 68% gap. Agentforce momentum real, switching costs high, still only 30% of a market growing 10% a year. Two minutes to get the full picture.
Chart says oversold. Fundamental Engine says deeply undervalued. Both pointing the same way. Started building a long here, not looking for a new all-time high, just riding the mean reversion back toward the tunnel.

I pick with "never to sell" horizon.....pays off as winners pull any or all losers by several margins (and yes I have picked lasers too). It's only when I see the true fundamental of business challenged or disrupted I exit....no emotional bias
Tech - Google Microsoft Amazon Meta Nvidia AMD Broadcom
I have been loading up on "disrupted by AI" theme stocks - Adobe, CRM, NOW, Pubmatic, Twilio, Duolingo, Spotify
And last bet purely asymmetric Ford. Picked up because my friend works in EV and he told me how Ford is repurposing them to BESS which I feel will be huge catalyst (Ford gets valued as traditional automaker but if their pivot to Ford Energy is successful imagine re ratings, earnings growth and multiples it can command maybe not as Tesla but still). Worse case it pays be 5% dividend so 20yrs all paid!

I paper handed the ones below at those prices:
Nvidia at 130.
Alphabet at 200.
Nebius at 90.
Reddit at 150.
Hood at 50.
Apple at 240.
ASML at 750.
Always sold for profits but they could have been so much more. The biggest regret is ASML and NBIS. Recently bought MSFT, NOW and CRM. Hopefully will paperhand a bit late this time.

Totally agree, enterprise owners aren't just gonna hand the keys to some big model. It'll come through trusted SaaS providers like CRM, NOW, or PLTR that already sit inside the firewall.

I don’t trade it because it’s too much of a meme stock. Too many people with strong feelings for and against. Too political and too much potential for government influence. And frankly like many I don’t really understand their business. I buy what I know and I know enterprise s/w like SAP, CRM,NOW, CRWD, Oracle, IBM from my time working for IBM.

Gonna buy some CRM now