CRM
Salesforce, Inc.
stockNYSE

It’s Accenture (ACN)! Not software, but the same question you raised: does AI shrink billable hours (your Adobe case) or create more implementation work (your CRM case)? So far bookings are still growing (+5% to $84.5B this year), but next year’s guidance is only 3–6% revenue growth. Would you still use your 11% here?

I've made a CRM full independent, a google sheets-based ERP, my company (small one) gets insane market alpha and automation everywhere (e-mail blacklisting for outreach campaigns), and my girlfriend is getting insane help on her studies (studying for one of the highest gov level jobs in my country) on the back of a 100$ gpt sub and a lovable sub the value per euro spent is fucking insane and what you can do on a 4 man team nowadays is busted as shit. Boss is even looking into other ventures and he plans on max hiring a couple other people for full dev work, but thats about it

It depends a lot on the company and if your 5th number is realistic. For example, if it’s adobe I have no confidence they can grow fcf by 6% for the next 10 years and I’d use an 11% discount rate to counter the risk of ai. But if it’s CRM I have more confidence that ai will be a tailwind and they can maintain fcf grow over 10 years, tho I’d still use a higher discount rate. The first 4 numbers don’t really matter to me when I’m forward looking and there are many software companies I think will not be able to grow earnings much. But there are a ton that I think got lumped into that group where I think ai will actually benefit them.

Thing is you can't. Yes you can make a shell of some saas lets say CRM but in reality there's so much trial and error, integrations, bugs and etc. Any bottom of the barrel dev could've built some saas over the weekend but in reality its much harder.

All I know is $ADBE, $MSFT, $CRM and $INTU are cooked because of anthropics Ai. Not to mention all video game stocks as well. ArtCraft is just the start, if you're not shorting big software you're missing out.

I had held OKTA stock for almost 10 years and recently exited after the runup. I think your 6 month and YTD timeframes for performance are bit skewed because OKTA got crushed by SasSpolcalypse fears. Just take a look at all the SaaS stocks of that era - PAYC HUBS MDB NOW VEEV WDAY - even a CRM which predates the era - they all got crushed and have experienced a recovery (maybe not so much HUBS). With OKTA, you got a little bit extra runup beyond SaaS recovery due to AI safety fears. In reality, none of these cybersecurity companies have an "AI" solution. "Containing an AI agent" is a novel concept that isn't a solution that is offered. Wall Street media's job isn't to present you with good information, it's to get you interested in making moves because liquidity makes them money. Wall Street media doesn't even have basic understanding of what these companies do.

No. AI company that bought SaaS apps to grow. But now we have outgrown those apps and have no appetite for crappy, “implementation services” heavy solutions. Why pay someone to customize a CRM solution built for nobody when we can make our own. For example: SFDC costs $2M in license + 5x that in implementation services and customization over 3-5 years. At $4M a year, I can get 5 decent engineers, give them Claude code with ultra code and can build a fully integrated CRM that does waaaaaay more than what we can get with SFDC. That was a what if maybe 1.5 years back. Not anymore. No one wants to pay that much flor clunky shit. On top of that we have to pay extra for data storage (close to $500k per year), and logs (another $500k per year). We have had enough of that BS. Might as well plop that money into product.

I sold CRM, RMBS recently. I also sold BNO, DINO stuff like that. The reason I will avoid BMNU right now is that cryptos are looking weak. There are better risk / reward.

I look at it as a salesforce.. changed how businesses do things, but eventually businesses started creating their own CRM system to handle their day-to-day and cut the costs. Don’t want to say it’s a direct correlation because obviously AI is a different animal and an overall shift into a whole different future globally.

I have felt this from the beginning I wouldn't touch anyone delivering a model right now. Too many Yahoo's and AltaVista's and perhaps one Google in the lot. Any winners will be the ones with corporate contracts. Claude code and OpenAI codex are good but I wouldn't personally bet on a winner this early. I think the software companies that took a hit earlier in the year from AI may end up being beneficiaries due to being deeply embedded already in corporate America and having the skill set to integrate and implement AI into the business processes they already perform. I think CRM and NOW could be ones to watch Just MHO