CRM
Salesforce, Inc.
stock NYSE

STO RDDT Jun 130/120p for 1.95.
I have a CRM 182.5 cc that was pretty ITM yesterday. Looks like INTU earnings and general market sentiment towards software saved me.

Ok, the bullshit is over. We can get back to the NOW run up before CRM reports.

CRM is undervalued

Not even CRM making the AI script helped their stock. Hell, they had a fucking Super Bowl commercial and it didn’t help.

It's not about existing customers. It's about getting new customers . I agree migrating to new flows can bring risks and generally it is not advised.
But let's say a company that's experiences growth wants to build workflows, they probably would opt in to some agentic solution .
There is a reason why some of SaaS CRM companies are losing value . It's not about existing customers but attracting new.

It isn’t. Intuit is grouped into the same algos as CRM LULU ADBE etc.
The only way INTU launches is if index crashes.
These stocks literally inverse the market.
SaaS does not stand for Software as a Service it stands for Software as a Short.

Also have a larger position in CRM, definitely oversold through shorting

I have been adding whenever it gets into mid 300s, one of the better saas to bet on. A more holistic view is because the bear case is so squishy it may be another year before you get a real reversal. But it isnt organic selling, all of these names are being shorted. CRM had one of the largest jumps in short interest on its bimonthly report I have ever seen. Well for this level of quality business. Saas is the pain trade atm, and the bear case is ethereal by design.

Given that the concerns about software company valuations are more about the “terminal value” part of the DCF not about the next few years of profits I’d be cautious about betting on a turnaround based on a single earnings announcement.
It’s been interesting to see the almost 1-to-1 opposite moves in semiconductor stocks and software. Rather than looking at something specifically positive about software, you almost need something to crack on the semi side to make software more attractive and have a rerating started on the short / medium term. Since you can never really disprove the terminal value concerns by beating quarterly guidance.
Secondly, if AI does actually take over large parts of the SaaS offering, I’d presume companies in SaaS would respond the same way as other “declining” industries have in past - return more to shareholders. P/E would get compressed, dividend yields go up. How does Intuit compare against its peers in FCF generation? Could you see it as a potential yield stock?
Open to debate, but my guess would be the SaaS companies that will do best are probably the ones that have some sort of system of record / highly reliable data provision function or sit on a large amount user generated / owned content - CRM, ADBE, FDS, Moody’s come to mind.

Intuit might not ring a bell to many, however it’s likely its products like Quickbooks and Mailchimp will.
The SaaS giant, whose portfolio also includes Turbotax and CreditKarma generates 20 billion dollars in Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) with traditional 80% gross and 20% net margins.
Even at this scale, Intuit posted 17% revenue growth last quarter, cementing its position as an elite SaaS company. Yet its stock is down 50% and cheaper than it was 5 years ago (despite the business having grown multiples in size since then).
Reasons for this downtrend are obvious. Fears that AI will make it cheaper for companies to ship code, lowering the cost of entry and lowering margins as well as SMBs building their own software in house.
This is what’s currently holding down Intuit stock, however it is already confirmed to be wrong by 2 factors.
First, all SaaS companies reporting have shown strong revenue growth, profitability and outlook - Monday, Atlassian, amongst others. For some stock has gone down even on good numbers like ServiceNow and Hubspot but all metrics were good signaling the market is strong.
Second, and perhaps most important, is the signal in the other direction. Both Anthropic and OpenAI have created divisions funded with billions to upsell their services to enterprise and when these systems are implementing on enterprise they actually integrate with both Quickbooks products and Salesforce products, making these two companies actual beneficiaries of the AI age for all of the data they sit on.
We’ll likely see a 15-20% surge around earnings, however as CRM and Adobe report within the next 30 days, it should be fairly certain soon that SaaS is here to stay and the market is going to rerate.

Intuit might not ring a bell to many, however it’s likely its products like Quickbooks and Mailchimp will.
The SaaS giant, whose portfolio also includes Turbotax and CreditKarma generates 20 billion dollars in Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) with traditional 80% gross and 20% net margins.
Even at this scale, Intuit posted 17% revenue growth last quarter, cementing its position as an elite SaaS company. Yet its stock is down 50% and cheaper than it was 5 years ago (despite the business having grown multiples in size since then).
Reasons for this downtrend are obvious. Fears that AI will make it cheaper for companies to ship code, lowering the cost of entry and lowering margins as well as SMBs building their own software in house.
This is what’s currently holding down Intuit stock, however it is already confirmed to be wrong by 2 factors.
First, all SaaS companies reporting have shown strong revenue growth, profitability and outlook - Monday, Atlassian, amongst others. For some stock has gone down even on good numbers like ServiceNow and Hubspot but all metrics were good signaling the market is strong.
Second, and perhaps most important, is the signal in the other direction. Both Anthropic and OpenAI have created divisions funded with billions to upsell their services to enterprise and when these systems are implementing on enterprise they actually integrate with both Quickbooks products and Salesforce products, making these two companies actual beneficiaries of the AI age for all of the data they sit on.
We’ll likely see a 15-20% surge around earnings, however as CRM and Adobe report within the next 30 days, it should be fairly certain soon that SaaS is here to stay and the market is going to rerate.

9 setups tonight but QQQ is the one that caught my attention: trend reversal put signal. Hard to ignore when the index itself is flagging.
Also watching AMD and GS on the put side, CRM and IBM for calls.
BMY showing up again as a call — still holding my position from a few weeks ago.
Anyone else seeing weakness in QQQ or is this a headfake?

SAP, NOW, CRM, Constellation Software mostly, and adobe

ADBE and CRM up 10% since this post

Software rally - inverse Cramer effect- let’s go CRM

CRM has some catching up to do

Except for cases like Lulu, CRM, ADBE, INTU.
These bags are fucking heavy.

No one is going to implement these solutions themselves. With stuff like ServiceNow and CRM we’re talking about insanely complicated software platforms that touch many enterprise workflows/integrations and take decades to develop and mature. Not to mention, you’re paying for a service - which includes customization, maintenance, support, uptime, compliance. And these companies have the reputation and experience to provide that support. There’s real value in that.

Meta’s 7000 AI employees is a sign of Corporate restructuring - purpose- build inhouse CRM, Accounting, Security and customer retention using Anthropic

It's more nuanced. When the customer hates the product, but has no way of changing, or the switching cost is too high, then that's a very good product. ADBE, NOW, TEAM (Jira), CRM(Salesforce), CRWD (Falcon)