CRM
Salesforce, Inc.
stockNYSE

CRM calls

Rough week. After the midterms the AI trade cracked on Thursday (S&P -4.4%, Nasdaq -5.5%) and the VIX went from 19 to around 28. My tech side took the hit: the XLK put got tested, so I rolled it far out and down (Jun 160) and moved the call all the way down for a credit. INTC dropped further to $56, rolled the call down to 65 and the put a year out, it’s an inverted strangle now. Also rolled URA twice and made my XLE call ratio risk free, then added a put ratio there. Book now: net liq $42.6k, BP usage 41.3%, βΔ +18, theta +$60/day, open P/L +$3,881, YTD -$1,945. CRM and GDX carried the week, IGV and XLE in the red. Same lesson again, everything tech moves together. GDX, corn and VIX calls held up. How did you handle Thursday? Did you roll anything or just sit through it?

What I notice is like when the semi stocks (eg MU, SNDK) are down, the software stocks are up (eg NOW, CRM).

CRM chart actually looks solid tbh

https://preview.redd.it/1z0gp4eocv0i1.png?width=2160&format=png&auto=webp&s=8494e39582811e4fd3a3a1c13476e8cef6024f61 TradeMates says: Decelerating ARR growth and executive turnover offset an 11.5% FCF yield — the model waits for new CEO execution before re-entry. What the market already prices in: The market has priced in substantial disruption from generative AI competitors (e.g. Canva, Figma) and seat compression, driving Adobe's trailing P/E down to 13.66x compared to salesforce (CRM at 21.88x) and AppLovin (APP at 20.36x).

I swing traded ADBE and several other software names like CRM, WDAY, NOW, TEAM and ZS, NetSkope and they all had big bounces enough to make $10 to $30K. After their bounce they YOYO’d a bit; they are great swing trades. But I agree on principle they may not be able to go back to their ATHs anytime soon. That said I see the current semiconductor event very similar to SaaS drawdown event in April of this year. I think semi stocks bouncing back next year by 50% enough to make some money with options. I’m loading up options now.