CRM
Salesforce, Inc.
stockNYSE

It’s Accenture (ACN)! Not software, but the same question you raised: does AI shrink billable hours (your Adobe case) or create more implementation work (your CRM case)? So far bookings are still growing (+5% to $84.5B this year), but next year’s guidance is only 3–6% revenue growth. Would you still use your 11% here?

I've made a CRM full independent, a google sheets-based ERP, my company (small one) gets insane market alpha and automation everywhere (e-mail blacklisting for outreach campaigns), and my girlfriend is getting insane help on her studies (studying for one of the highest gov level jobs in my country) on the back of a 100$ gpt sub and a lovable sub the value per euro spent is fucking insane and what you can do on a 4 man team nowadays is busted as shit. Boss is even looking into other ventures and he plans on max hiring a couple other people for full dev work, but thats about it

It depends a lot on the company and if your 5th number is realistic. For example, if it’s adobe I have no confidence they can grow fcf by 6% for the next 10 years and I’d use an 11% discount rate to counter the risk of ai. But if it’s CRM I have more confidence that ai will be a tailwind and they can maintain fcf grow over 10 years, tho I’d still use a higher discount rate. The first 4 numbers don’t really matter to me when I’m forward looking and there are many software companies I think will not be able to grow earnings much. But there are a ton that I think got lumped into that group where I think ai will actually benefit them.

Thing is you can't. Yes you can make a shell of some saas lets say CRM but in reality there's so much trial and error, integrations, bugs and etc. Any bottom of the barrel dev could've built some saas over the weekend but in reality its much harder.

All I know is $ADBE, $MSFT, $CRM and $INTU are cooked because of anthropics Ai. Not to mention all video game stocks as well. ArtCraft is just the start, if you're not shorting big software you're missing out.