CRM
Salesforce, Inc.
stock NYSE

Because there is a presumption that AI advancement will disrupt SAAS plays. This thesis has been broken somewhat by SNOW, CRM, and MDB, but....the usually when AI plays are up, SAAS is down or muted. Both industries run counter to each other.

I think it is time to highly consider hedging if you haven't by buying SAAS names and other AI headwind plays. I think some money is going to flow hard Monday into NOW, CRM, WDAY, etc. The bigger question is how Dario's commments might affect stocks like RDDT and cybersecurity stocks. What do you guys think? I am personally sitting out this next week with interest rate decision, oil prices, and now the AI slow down scale.

Individual stocks are all over the place these days. The indexes are near all time highs. Some stocks are doing really well. Others are doing really bad. Some are sideways chop. I want to own the ones that are doing really well. That's two problems to deal with. How to find them. How to avoid a crash that could happen tomorrow or next year - how not to lose money.
"find stocks that have stayed above their 20 day moving average for the last 20 days" [https://marketsignalintelligence.com/screeners-and-alerts/screeners/create](https://marketsignalintelligence.com/screeners-and-alerts/screeners/create)
https://preview.redd.it/c6ptzsspaaph1.png?width=895&format=png&auto=webp&s=c36aefc61030296698e649cec1d38d8f34ff1071
I recognize all the oil tickers and own some of them. I already know what they are doing. Lets try CRM.
https://preview.redd.it/tanl5hbocaph1.jpg?width=1584&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e89eb12258900c28e9d2433f665b7d2c8ef0cb9e
CRM is poor quality price action for me. It looks like it could drop 20% very quickly. If I could have caught it at a good time it might be ok. But I can't go back in the past and do it. "Backtesting can not predict the future"
I look for one with a steady uptrend. PSX If I can catch the little dips near the 10 day moving average that can work. If I miss those the breakout is an easy spot to buy. The breakout shows strength and it's also a nice tight stop. I never go big on the first trade. I start small and as it keeps working I add to it. If it doesn't work then it's a small lose no big deal. Compounding the winners and cutting the losers quickly.
https://preview.redd.it/cduawj7ogaph1.jpg?width=1589&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=55133f2db544ce21f4c9a2e160f5eb878aa322a7
There are many ways to do this. This chart marks the significant levels. Try to use those as decision points. Different stocks will have different character. Buy the ones that are going up, breaking out to the top side of your lines whatever your lines are. Try to use upward sloping lines. Do not use downward sloping lines, that's for shorts.
https://preview.redd.it/uczumomrhaph1.jpg?width=1587&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e5b8d2b3c2ea14d1f7b7f4692076a0f1023b35bf
Here's one for next week, IQV. It's simple. Either breakout above the old high or breakout above the green line. Aug 11 had a little fake breakout above the green line. The breakout above the old high worked. Nothing is perfect. That's why I start small. I won't be trying this one, just an example.
https://preview.redd.it/ekr7th13kaph1.png?width=1588&format=png&auto=webp&s=af50a3b5ae9122ce86b7710196725ca5cda5f624

Sir this is a 2011 SugarCRM thread and you are about to lose your house.
"Why pay Salesforce $150/seat when I can spin up Postgres for free" was said by every CTO with a Blackberry. Postgres is free. Salesforce is $300B. Sugar is a Wikipedia stub. I have personally been paid for 12 years to clean up the smoking craters of companies who tried this. I am the ATM. You are the gambler.
The weights aren't the product regard. The weights are Postgres. The product is the 40 person team you now need to keep your GPUs from sitting at 30% utilization while your "open model is only 6 months behind" is 6 months behind on the one thing your sales team needs today. You didn't buy a server, you adopted a science project with a burn rate.
And the trade itself: long NVDA, short AI. Bro. Who buys the shovels if the gold is worthless. Your long leg is your short leg wearing a hat. Also you can't short Anthropic, it's private, so your "short AI" is shorting MSFT and GOOG who are also the ones buying all the GPUs. You've constructed a position where both legs get liquidated at the same time. Impressive. Truly.
Same thing happened in CRM. Bottom got crushed to $0 (HubSpot free tier, Zoho, 6000 Indian dev shops). Top got fatter. Basic inference goes to zero, frontier keeps pricing power, and the hardware guys running under Salesforce captured exactly none of it.
Positions or ban. Mine is 12 years of Salesforce admin invoices and it prints every single time someone in this thread gets promoted to VP of Engineering.

Have at least 10% cash. Also, have some software stocks like CRWD, PANW, CRM, NOW…Lastly, use SOXS or SQQQ(small amount) for short term hedge. Use carefully though. If you are experienced investors and have enough investment in the game, you can sell cover calls. or buy puts. Just FYI.