CRM
Salesforce, Inc.
stock NYSE

Every month, I look into my top losers in my portfolio and then think about if i need to do anything about it. This recap has been very helpful to me. i think i learned more from the mistakes i made than my winners.
1 bidu -55%
2 ZS -50%
3 Baba -42%
4 CRM -35%
5 Qcom -34%
6 chkp -33%
7 IBIT -32%
8 orcl -30%
9 TDG -19%
10 Jmia -85%
11 rddt -25%

Some positions are material and some are not.
All my last year Top losers have recovered from loss,
except lnth bidu baba and jmia. lnth is close to breakeven ( probably already if consider earlier gains) .
mrvl, cop, psx, lly, mrk have all gone up and some have material gains now.
I personally think softwares, especially cyber security stocks. Software sector is overblown.
btw, beat market every single year and probably will this year.

A SWE at DUOL, Isaac Anderson, is the #1 single purchaser of OpenAI tokens in the world, >1 trillion tokens. I think AI will continue to improve DUOL in the future and help them increase their DAUs. They are incredibly profitable with no debt and roughly 1 billion in cash on their balance sheet. AI has been around for a few years now and we haven’t seen it show up in the numbers once. I support management’s decision to prioritize improving the free experience and develop loyal users.
My cost basis is ~$150 but I’ve been buying since $300/share. I wouldn’t be surprised if there is a massive rerating of strong software stocks like ADBE, DUOL, and CRM after the market realizes that AI helps these companies rather than hurts them.

Inverse all news.
JPM says sell CRM 175p for June? Buy house fuckers.
Surprise surprise, CRM is teetering at 175 already.
PT upgrades? Short it.
PT downgrades? Go long.
🥭 starts rapid posting nonsense garbage? Get the fuck out of your calls.
Figure out the gex/dex.
Retail news says retail is mostly in puts: full port calls.
Never fomo a rip/dip.
Giant green dildo/clifford EOD but seems stuck at a price? Someone is offloading/loading shorts.
How’s my take?

We use CRM as an enterprise tool. .
While I agree that AI threatens $CRM when it comes to basic flows and small companies that just need basic CRM (Client Relationship Management) Enterprise companies will always flock to CRM because of data governance, security, up time, redundancy etc .
Executives in large corporations hate to be held accountable for any risk . If they can offshelf any risk they will do that , slap it on the SLA and put a number on it . They would rather pay 2x$$$ then have to have in-house Dev Ops and engineering Teams, perform regular DR testing , etc.
Similarly for Microsoft. It's not about quality, but control and policy management.

Guiz I’m starting to think JPM was full of shit when they said selling 4-5 month out CRM puts was free money. Wat do if no money to buy 600 shares

Agreed in some ways as I am about to drop an absolute bomb of fully coded AI-native apps on my niche industry and put 2 companies out of business.. but Microsoft is gonna be fine bro. Adobe will be fine. Oracle, hubspot etc for CRM the fact is even when people like myself use AI to build and scale CRMs, that shit is expensive and you still need to hire real development teams. For any industry requiring compliance and data security you can’t just vibe code an app that will break on user 11. A lot of newly coded apps will be hosted with Azure. Microsoft will profit from AI

At 0% growth, Adobe and CRM buy back all their shares in 10-20 years.
If you think their current price is fair then you expect them to have declining revenue going forward

SaaS stocks will become obsolete with the introduction of AI. TTD will be the first victim of AI, followed by MICROSLOP, ADBE, FIG, CRM, NOW, TEAM, SNOW, ORCL, NVO, INTU etc etc...
In particular TTD has several catalysts upcoming that could knock this stock down to bankrupcy:
1. Audits from Publicis and Omnicom: the audits allegedly found improper fee applications, including cases where clients were opted into paid features without explicit consent. GUILTY -15% on stock price
2. CEO bought 150M in stock right before rumors of OpenAI advertising deal started circulating. SEC will be knocking on the door anytime now -10% on stock price
3. Upper management are exiting in droves: The CFO was fired, CMO and SVP all recently left the company. They know this company is done for -10% on stock price
4. Vibe coding has made SWE much much easier, it will become a commodity in the future. What used to take 10 people will now take only 1 person to do. This will make all SaaS that charge per seat revenue drop by up to 90%!! -35% stock price
5. Companies like OpenAI don't need TTD for advertising, they can just vibe code their own TTD and use it for free! This will cause a sell the rumor event in which TTD drops -25%
For all these reasons, I am shorting naked calls on TTD. DEATH TO ALL SAAS STOCKS YOU WON'T BE MISSED AND SAY HELLO TO AI MADE SOFTWARE
Position: 384 short naked $30 TTD calls exp Jun 18

CRM has been downgraded to Dookie by AI 💩

I sold to open 2 puts on NOW ($91 for $1) and one on CRM ($155 for $1.10) today.
I have been selling CSPs on CRM since beginning of the year, but I am getting wary as it continues to go down without signs of recovery. A day like today I would except it to stay flat at least. I am worried that it could go down another 5% plus in a day if some bad news come out and SPY drops 2%.

Why is CRM (Salesforce) the only Software company going down right now?

CRM not going up with everything else. Maybe an opportunity for CSP?

CRM decided not to attend the party I guess

CRM is green now, PLTR is -3%

Have you read their glassdoor reviews lately? The truth is right there. I used to work there, and there was a book written by someone who did as well. It was all hype, and their only hope was cornering the SMB market, like full on becoming THE CRM, somehow making their product synonymous with CRM like their arch nemesis Salesforce has. Moreover, with AI out and so many AI competitors, SMBs can use a combination of a standard office suite, some cheap AI tool at under $30 a month and.... gasp.... PEOPLE to do a way better CRM, sales, and marketing than HubSpot could ever give. The human touch is coming back as a real value add for SMBs to engage with customers, not bot flows and automated BS. Bonus points for these cheaper tools either being free or contractless, month-to-month options. HubSpot's potential market is tapped out. The economy is hurting for SMBs. Everyone wants to pay less, not more, as technology improves. HubSpot always expected customers to pay more for less and pay for bullshit add ons. They weren't really exponentially growing customer base with brand new businesses compared to overall market growth. It was all covid bump. Like do you even know or like the product/company or you just bought on hype and complete fluff pieces? And you gripped that falling knife for dear life while HubSpot execs sold their stock. LOL!! You just made a bad choice, gurl. 

I have a 2% exposure to each of NOW, CRM, ADBE, (I use these as sort of cash stores meaning that I treat them as short - medium term investments that are too cheap now and I expect they will bounce back HARD with momentum change (Earnings?), Once they do (+50%) I may start to trim them for taxes and whatnot

I Don't have much of a bull thesis for them as they are cheap and they are growing and accelerating

Getting dragged down by software stocks in general i think. Looking at the likes of CRM or WDAY

CRM can’t even pump on a day Ike today. Certified trash

# Rate My Asset Bundle: 50% T-bills, 10% Index, 15 Stocks
Structure:
* 50% 1-year US Treasury Bills around a gross 3.5% yield.
* 10% S&P 500 low-cost ETF of choice
* 15 stocks (2.7% equal weight): ADYEN, XYZ, ETR:ZAL, BVMF:CEAB3, DTRUY, VLVLY, CRM, SAP, HUBS, AMZN, META, ORCL, BKNG, ABNB, LOGI.
Rationale:
* **Adyen (ADYEN), Block (XYZ)**: US-EU payment terminal processor pair. Intended to complement each other across markets and reduce the risk of a single company taking the lead. Banking-like optionality in Block's Cash App that provides an easy way for retail customers to transfer money.
* **Daimler Truck Holding AG (DTRUY), AB Volvo (VLVLY)**: Truck/bus, commercial freight vehicle producers. Less disruption risk from cheap vehicles, heavier capital intensity business. Tesla's Semi news has toned down, indicating difficulties with this vehicle category, ceding resilience for traditional freight vehicles.
* **Zalando (ETR:ZAL), C&A Modas S.A. (BVMF:CEAB3)**: Fast-fashion stock pair, LATAM and EU exposure. C&A is semi-vertically integrated, while Zalando is the e-comm disruptor. Shopping as a psychological release valve and decent social status signal - as opposed to alternative eco signals. C&A is my personal bias as I like the price to quality mix of the clothes, 70% of their manufacturing comes from Bangladesh, China and Turkey.
* **Salesforce (CRM), SAP (SAP), Hubspot (HUBS)**: ERP and sales software providers. SAP and CRM hold the majority of enterprise-level customers, while HUBS is targeting SMBs but moving up in the ladder of business customers. All 3 companies have seen an erasure of forward premiums; However, their complex software makes them resilient to AI disruption.
* **Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), Oracle (ORCL)**: Mass market B2B and B2C hyperscalers oversold on AI fears. META and ORCL are a social media pair capturing most of the world audience with Facebook, Instagram, W-App, and TikTok infrastructure. ORCL and AMZN some of the largest datacenter providers, currently trading at attractive valuations, and away from Microsoft's ChatGPT risks e.g. capturing casual use with the extrapolation that it will translate to seat-based pricing.
* **Booking (BKNG), AirBnB (ABNB)**: Travel discovery and booking pair. Attempts to disrupt their business such as Google Travel have largely failed (no, we are not vibing a competitor here) and the companies remain the go-to destination for retail and business travelers. The industry itself is cyclical and people that skip travelling for one year tend to compensate later.
* **Logitech (LOGI)**: PC hardware peripherals for commercial and retail customers. Low risk, fair value, EU exposure.
The companies and rationale I am pitching are meant to offer a combination that minimizes exposure to hot sectors, divide the investment risk between regions, as well as try to capture businesses with staying power and their disruptor counter-parts. You can add or change to this portfolio any way you see fit, but I expressly stayed away from sectors like semiconductors, energy, and popular stocks.
The portfolio's gross target is 11%, that is the goal and depending on your tax jurisdiction and a 27.5% capital gain should net 8% excluding transaction costs. This means that should the portfolio attain its goal by the end of the year, investors may want to consider treating it as a single asset and evaluate its risk structure as such, not tweak individual positions.

Solid batch of company write-ups from Substack authors from last week.
Not my work - sourced from Giles Capital's weekly compilation: [https://gilescapital.substack.com/](https://gilescapital.substack.com/)
# Americas
**Hated Moats** on [**Salesforce**](https://hatedmoats.substack.com/p/salesforce-dcf-valuation) (🇺🇸 CRM US - US$153bn) DCF values the business at $264 per share, 41% above current price, assuming 10% near-term growth fading to 3% terminal. $15B in operating cash flow underpins the case, though $39.5B in debt keeps leverage elevated.
**Mulberry Financial** on [**Coinbase**](https://mulberryfinancial.substack.com/p/why-gold-is-falling-and-why-the-banks) (🇺🇸 COIN US - US$46bn) Stablecoin payments now process $20-30B daily, positioning Coinbase as the regulated gateway to digital finance. 39.6% five-year revenue growth and 18% net margins at 2.9x book, though a P/E near 37x limits near-term value.
**The Finance Corner** on [**Crocs**](https://thefinancecorner.substack.com/p/crocs-the-fashion-fad-is-still-around) (🇺🇸 CROX US - US$4.2bn) TOP PICK Strip out the $738M HeyDude write-down and this is a 6.7x P/E business generating $659M in free cash flow at 58% gross margins. Share count down 30% since 2013 through aggressive buybacks.
**Enterprising Investor** on [**MarineMax**](https://enterprisinginvestor.substack.com/p/marinemax-stock-analysis) (🇺🇸 HZO US - US$600m) Trading at 0.57x book value with an activist's $35 per share all-cash bid on the table, implying 35% upside. Blackstone, Centerbridge, and TPG reportedly circling. Interest costs ballooned from $3M to $68M since 2022.
**Winter Gems** on [**D-Box Technologies**](https://www.wintergems.com/p/portfolio-q1-2026-d-box) (🇨🇦 DBO TSX - CAD$178m) Patent-protected haptic cinema seats installed across 1,145 screens globally, with a new CEO driving 80 installations per quarter. Stock has re-rated 5x from $0.14, and the lead activist trimmed 34.5% in February.
**Wolf of Oakville** on [**iFabric Corp**](https://www.wolfofoakville.com/p/ifabric-corp-ifato-fins-review) (🇨🇦 IFA TSX - CAD$85m) 66% insider ownership and Q1 2026 guidance of $25-27M revenue (250% growth) from new Walmart and Costco medical scrubs programs. Offset by a net loss in 2025, compressed margins, and a weaker balance sheet.
# Europe, Middle East & Africa
**Investing with Wes** on [**Cerillion**](https://investingwithwes.substack.com/p/cerillion-plc-cerl) (🇬🇧 CER LN - £384m) 81.5% gross margins, 93% customer retention, zero debt, and a 20% founder-CEO stake. Strong business, but 23x P/E with a 3% free cash flow yield below the risk-free rate leaves no margin of safety. Author's valuation sits 41% below current price.
**Best Anchor Stocks** on [**Judges Scientific**](https://www.bestanchorstocks.com/p/from-headwindsto-tailwinds) (🇬🇧 JDG LN - £283m) Proven serial acquirer of niche scientific instrument businesses, now 50% off its highs. Trough 2026 earnings assume zero US funding recovery, no major contract wins, and no acquisitions. £50M of acquisition firepower and 118% cash conversion suggest the worst is priced in.
**Guardian Research** on [**Schmid Group**](https://guardianresearch.substack.com/p/160-year-old-family-business) (🇩🇪 SHMD US - US$284m) The only equipment provider for a key step in manufacturing AI chip substrates, 52% family-owned with zero analyst coverage. Currently loss-making with a stressed balance sheet, though guided to >€100M revenue and >12% EBITDA margin for 2026.
**Almost Mongolian** on [**Zoomd Technologies**](https://www.almostmongolian.com/p/zoomd-technologies-why-its-back-in) (🇮🇱 ZOMD V - US$63m) TOP PICK 3.8x P/E and 2.5x EV/EBIT on an adtech platform that gets paid only when it delivers paying customers. Revenue grew 155% over 18 months. $18.3M net cash, zero debt. Two major clients paused spending during a technical transition; sole analyst targets C$4.00 versus C$0.84 current.
# Asia-Pacific
**Capytal Management** on [**Marco Polo Marine**](https://capytalmanagement.substack.com/p/marco-polo-marine-upcycle-incoming) (🇸🇬 MPM SG - US$400m) Offshore vessel operator and shipyard with 27% Q1 revenue growth, secured multi-year contracts, and insider buying. Benefiting from an aging fleet across Asia, though the stock has tripled from mid-2025 levels, pushing the valuation to 14.4x EV/EBIT.
**Iggy on Investing** on [**Otto Energy**](https://iggyoninvesting.substack.com/p/the-hormuz-speculation-with-a-cash) (🇦🇺 OEL AU - US$16m) Negative enterprise value. A$28M cash on the balance sheet exceeds the A$24M market cap, meaning the market values the producing oil assets at less than zero. CEO's 2% bonus on capital returned aligns incentives to distribute cash within 12 months while oil prices stay above $100.
**Altay Cap** on [**Osaka Yuka Industry**](https://altaycap.substack.com/p/nanocap-osaka-yuka-industry-4124) (🇯🇵 4124 TYO - US$14m) A ¥185B chemical company bid ¥3,201 per share for this precision distillation specialist; an activist blocked the deal and now holds 42%. Stock trades at ¥2,746, 14% below the failed bid. Zero analyst coverage, minimal daily volume. Special situation.
**Mr. Deep Value** on [**Silicon Studio**](https://www.mrdeepvalue.com/p/silicon-studio-analysis) (🇯🇵 3907 TYO - US$12m) 4.4x EV/EBIT, 6.8x P/E, and cash on the balance sheet equal to 65% of the market cap. Capital-light software and staffing business generating ¥286M annual free cash flow. Fragmented 70% free float creates activist optionality. Nintendo is 17% of revenue.