CPER
United States Copper Index Fund
stock NYSE ETF

I am of the opinion that we are probably in a commodity supercycle where supply has diminished and demand will outpace supply. And as you said, you can't just flip a switch and produce more copper next month or even next year. (My expectations of increased demand do not depend solely on military demand.)
But look at COPX, the biggest copper miner ETF. It's up 100% in the last year.
Just because you've found a supply constraint doesn't mean the rest of the market hasn't also figured that out.
You only did half of the thesis. You found what you thought was an opportunity, but you didn't check whether others have found the same opportunity. (I don't say that to be rude but in an attempt to be helpful. We can all learn and improve how we analyze the market.)
Nonetheless, CPER, the actual metal (futures really, since people don't store bars of copper, unlike silver and gold) hasn't gone up so much. That's where my money is.

I am of the opinion that we are probably in a commodity supercycle where supply has diminished and demand will outpace supply. And as you said, you can't just flip a switch and produce more copper next month or even next year. (My expectations of increased demand do not depend solely on military demand.)
But look at COPX, the biggest copper miner ETF. It's up 100% in the last year.
Just because you've found a supply constraint doesn't mean the rest of the market hasn't also figured that out.
You only did half of the thesis. You found what you thought was an opportunity, but you didn't check whether others have found the same opportunity. (I don't say that to be rude but in an attempt to be helpful. We can all learn and improve how we analyze the market.)
Nonetheless, CPER, the actual metal (futures really, since people don't store bars of copper, unlike silver and gold) hasn't gone up so much. That's where my money is.