AMPX
Amprius Technologies, Inc.
stock NYSE

Buy AMPX big time

AMPX or Planet Labs

The picks and shovels framing is useful, but huge TAM stories are exactly where I would get stricter about unit economics, customer concentration, capital intensity and actual returns on reinvested capital. Battery companies are a good reminder that essential technology does not automatically create a great business. I use Moon for shorter term price ideas but for something like ALGM or AMPX the long term thesis has to survive without relying on the chart going up.

Buy AMPX big time

AMPX or Planet Labs

The picks and shovels framing is useful, but huge TAM stories are exactly where I would get stricter about unit economics, customer concentration, capital intensity and actual returns on reinvested capital. Battery companies are a good reminder that essential technology does not automatically create a great business. I use Moon for shorter term price ideas but for something like ALGM or AMPX the long term thesis has to survive without relying on the chart going up.

AMPX I'm holding a fairly big position and expect some nice returns in a few years.

So many people over the last several years have thought a number of battery companies were massive growth stories with a huge TAM and they wind up like QS or Northvolt. Perhaps batteries just don't have enough moat/too much competition? Some long-term chart on AMPX only to be up 15% since going public. Am long a bit of OUST, but not much.
In terms of secular trends, I've been long TWST/TXG but the life science stuff has run a lot.

AMPX trades like garbage. A lot of competition in the space