ACGR
American Century Large Cap Growth ETF
stock NYSE ETF

The third is a series: "Should I still be maintaining these charts?"
Are 4-year cycles still a thing? I think we'll still be talking about them for a while because they make a handy time period for comparisons, at least for now. Here are three.
[https://imgur.com/a/btc-4-year-windows-6OcALP6](https://imgur.com/a/btc-4-year-windows-6OcALP6)
The top chart is BTC price and 4-year SMA (black), the block reward and 4-year SMA (purple) and ratio of BTC price to the 4-Y SMA (red). At the Dec 2017 peak, the ratio was about 18x. At the Apr 2021 peak, the ratio was 6x. Yesterday it was 2.2x. Do I think it will hit 18x anytime soon? No. 6x? Also no.
Fun fact about the 4-Y SMA of the block reward--there was a period earlier this year where is was actually \*decreasing\* day to day, which had never happened before.
BTC has been a screaming buy every time it hit the 4-Y SMA. The 4-Y SMA is currently $52.8K.
The middle chart looks at BTC price (black), the 4-year ratio of the price (red), and the 1-year geometric mean of the ratio. 2017 to late 2021 had a range, and late 2021 to now has had a range, roughly 2.5x-7x.
The bottom chart takes the 4-Y price ratio and plots it as ACGR. The red dotted line is the ACGR of the S&P 500 (not including dividends). It got so depressing 6 months ago I stopped charting it.
An asset that "only" doubles (or triples) the return of the S&P 500 over a multi-year span isn't a bad thing, but it's not a get-rich-quick scheme either.

The third is a series: "Should I still be maintaining these charts?"
Are 4-year cycles still a thing? I think we'll still be talking about them for a while because they make a handy time period for comparisons, at least for now. Here are three.
[https://imgur.com/a/btc-4-year-windows-6OcALP6](https://imgur.com/a/btc-4-year-windows-6OcALP6)
The top chart is BTC price and 4-year SMA (black), the block reward and 4-year SMA (purple) and ratio of BTC price to the 4-Y SMA (red). At the Dec 2017 peak, the ratio was about 18x. At the Apr 2021 peak, the ratio was 6x. Yesterday it was 2.2x. Do I think it will hit 18x anytime soon? No. 6x? Also no.
Fun fact about the 4-Y SMA of the block reward--there was a period earlier this year where is was actually \*decreasing\* day to day, which had never happened before.
BTC has been a screaming buy every time it hit the 4-Y SMA. The 4-Y SMA is currently $52.8K.
The middle chart looks at BTC price (black), the 4-year ratio of the price (red), and the 1-year geometric mean of the ratio. 2017 to late 2021 had a range, and late 2021 to now has had a range, roughly 2.5x-7x.
The bottom chart takes the 4-Y price ratio and plots it as ACGR. The red dotted line is the ACGR of the S&P 500 (not including dividends). It got so depressing 6 months ago I stopped charting it.
An asset that "only" doubles (or triples) the return of the S&P 500 over a multi-year span isn't a bad thing, but it's not a get-rich-quick scheme either.