TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
stock NASDAQ ETF

You buy the 3x leveraged $TLT?
It's my belief that 10 & 20 yr US bond yields are going down?

TLT also up srong

Well, my short SPHB and long TLT are working as I had hoped. Not like AMD had to go down.

TLT flying, you’re about to see a bunch of money come out of the equities and right into bonds over the next few weeks/months while retail holds these tech bags.

long TLT $95.00 6/9 at $710.00

TLT up .90%
TLT calls down 0.1%
Excuse me wtf? 🫠

Enjoy your below avg returns on TLT boomer

TLT gang: I'm in danger!
https://archive.ph/Vmz2f

I don't like funds that hold corporate bonds because they perform like stocks. I only hold Treasuries. My favorite treasury funds in order of maturity duration are $BILS, $VGSH, $TLT, $EDV.

The comment I replied to said "A higher bond yield implies a higher expected return on stocks." My post explained why this is not true. Bond yield are not well correlated, with a higher expected return on stocks. Instead bond yields largely follow different market forces, particularly fed rate.
Changing asset allocation to include more bonds when yields are high is a separate, but related issues. Consider the recent 2010s decade, when bond yields were often <1%. With a fed rate and bond yield both under 1%, there isn't much room for bond rates to decrease further, but both fed rate and bond yield may increase. If the fed rate does increase, the yield will go up, but your previously purchased bonds are likely to lose value. Bonds that are locked in to a low yield become less desirable to investors on the secondary market when they could instead invest in newer bonds that pay a higher yield.
This relates to why typical bond funds have lost significant value since the start of the 2020 decade. For example the 20-year bond ETF TLT had a 31% loss last year, with the rising fed rate from 0.08% at start of 2022 to 4.33 at end of 2022. With the low bond rate in 2010s decade, if the bond rate stays low, then the bond pays little yield. And if the bond rate goes up, the bond fund loses value. This does not sound like the optimal time to invest heavily in bonds.

TLT will prob go up.

I'm losing money on my TLT investment. Individual Treasuries and Money Market accounts are faring better. Hoping TLT can bounce back.

TMF and TLT

Everyone has to rely on their own risk considerations but imho the r/r is pretty awful up here and I’d much rather be in silver/gold, TLT, or just 4% cash.

Current portfolio
3 /M2K future contracts

-1 /MNQ future contract

100 Long PYPL, SQ

25 MRNA

100 UNG (despite the contango bleed)

Open on Tue
PDD Call
TLT Call Leap
* Patiently waiting on TGT to finish puking to enter, will enter when there is a clear reversal.
Ultimately I'm pretty long, I usually try to stay relatively mixed (having shorts and longs). With VIX being in this decay state, I'm pretty bullish until something changes. All the overbought tech are too parabolic to short.

I think TLT at $100 is pretty safe. I've been selling puts at strikes of $95 to $100 for many months. In comparison to TLTW (which I don't think is a bad product, and sells CC 2% OTM), I think I'd prefer to just sell TLT puts 2% ITM.

ZROZ, EDV, GOVZ, TLT.

Because quite a few people want to press inflation as the continuing main topic in 2023 when in reality, you're just talking about slightly elevated inflation over the past 10 months (gonna be 11 once we get May).
Fed may hold through this year and for part of next, but I'm starting to question if whether the QQQ/TLT correlation broke after it worked pretty well for two years.
If QQQ can stay above the swing high from February of this year, it's probably broken, and some folks are going to be hot about that.

I recently started a position. I’m going pretty heavy into TLT if it goes sub $100.

Explain why I shouldn’t put my life savings in TLT rn