SMH
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
stock NASDAQ ETF

Sell all 30000. Save that 962K while you can. Buy SPY, VOO, IVV, XLK, QQQ, SMH. Don't open your portfolio next one year. Thank me after 1 year.

**Oracle:** issued a force-majeure notice on the massive 2.45GW Project Jupiter AI data center tied to OpenAI, amid power/infrastructure delays. Reuters says this is already making AI infrastructure lenders more cautious.
**Anthropic:** \\\~$4.6B revenue but $8B+ operating loss in 2025, alongside enormous future infrastructure commitments.
**Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei**: recently said \*\*“we must slow the pace”\*\* of frontier AI development; OpenAI’s Sam Altman agreed that the industry needs to pace frontier-model advances.
**OpenAI**: revenue is reportedly approaching $70B annualized, but the company continues requiring enormous compute/infrastructure investment.
**Bill Gates:** has also said he is now worried about AI’s rapid development and, unusually for him, wishes the technology would advance more slowly.
So what are we looking at — temporary infrastructure bottlenecks, or the early cracks in an AI capex cycle that could eventually hit semiconductor valuations/SMH ETF and other nasdaq related ETFs?
**What are your opinions? Are you still willing to put in money now or wait for a crash to find attractive entry?**

I aint reading that... but SMH is going a lot higher ✨

SMH up AVGO down. A tale as old as time.

train is leaving the station folks next step SMH 735

SMH is literally infinitely more stable today than the Qs just because of fucking GOOGL.

SMH and other semiconductor etfs

SMH

>I am betting on future revamping the US electrical system and full electrification
The need for this would have to align with a belief that AI datacenter buildout will continue to scaleout for the foreseeable future. In that case the better investment is SMH SOXX and more energy focused AIPO.
I think you're going to find that in many of those engery ETF's there will be a lot of dead weight (espeically in TAN). In the semi space, you have companies selling products and services backed by IP and at high margin; whereas energy is a commodity. Sure you will see some earnings growth in energy, but ultimately it cannot scale that fast and is fractured (as in many share the pot). Individual big winners sure, but ETF will water them down by a lot, that broader index is better long term.

And the inherited IRA will transfer in kind? I know it has various IRS rules and it has to be drained in 10 years, we dont really need the money so we allocated it to QQQ SMH and VOO but left enough for 2 RMD's in cash so we dont have to sell in a down market.

\# 📊 Market Brief — Wed September 30, 2026
\*Data pulled Wed Sep 30, 2026 8:35 AM ET\*
\*\*TL;DR:\*\* The 8:30 data hit a flat tape and yields moved lower. August PCE: headline \*\*+0.3% MoM / 3.4% YoY\*\*, core \*\*+0.2% / 3.0%\*\*. Q2 GDP was revised \*\*up to 2.2%\*\* (from 1.5%), and ADP showed \*\*+90k\*\* private jobs, a better-than-expected rebound. Hike odds for October had already dropped to roughly a coin flip after Williams said there was "no need for urgency." Micron reports tonight, the jobs report is Friday, and both SPY and QQQ sit just under their gamma flips.
\## 📰 Last 24h — what happened & why
\- \*\*PCE was hot enough to matter but not alarming.\*\* Core rose \*\*+0.2%\*\* on the month, and the annual rate is \*\*3.0%\*\* after BEA's annual revisions. Spending jumped \*\*+0.9%\*\* nominal (real \*\*+0.6%\*\*) against income of only +0.2%, so consumers are spending faster than they earn.
\- \*\*Growth is firmer than it looked:\*\* Q2 GDP went to \*\*2.2%\*\* from 1.5%, lifted by investment, consumer spending and government outlays. ADP's \*\*+90k\*\* was the first hiring pickup since May, led by education/health.
\- \*\*The Fed backed away from October.\*\* NY Fed's Williams said Tuesday there is "no need for urgency" to hike again after September. October hike odds fell from \~70% Monday to roughly 50/50. He still sees one more hike "late this year."
\- \*\*Oil is rising again,\*\* up \*\*1.1% to $90.37\*\* after falling 2.5% Tuesday on signs Middle East exports are recovering. Iran received the US response to its latest proposal, but talks have stalled.
\- \*\*AI/semis:\*\* \*\*Micron reports after the close\*\*, the first big test of memory/AI demand this season.
\## 📊 Breadth / divergence
\`\`\`
ES (S&P 500) +0.07% NQ (Nasdaq-100) -0.09%
YM (Dow) +0.07% RTY (Russ 2000) -0.02%
\`\`\`
\- \*\*Flat and undecided.\*\* All four are within ±0.1%, and the market is looking past the 8:30 prints to Micron and Friday's payrolls.
\## 🔁 Sector rotation (rel to SPY)
\*(5-day lookback — SPY itself −1.19% over the week)\*
\`\`\`
LEADERS (rotating IN, 5d rel) LAGGARDS (rotating OUT, 5d rel)
XLV Health Care +1.68 XLY Consumer Disc -1.64
SMH Semis +1.10 XLB Materials -1.64
XLE Energy +0.80 XLRE Real Estate -1.54
XLI Industrials +0.52 ARKK Growth/spec -1.17
\`\`\`
\- \*\*What's happening:\*\* In a down week, money moved into \*\*health care (XLV, a classic defensive)\*\*, \*\*semis (SMH, chipmakers like NVDA/MU)\*\* and \*\*energy (XLE, a crude play)\*\*. It left \*\*consumer discretionary (XLY: retail, autos, travel)\*\*, \*\*materials (XLB)\*\*, \*\*real estate (XLRE, the most rate-sensitive)\*\* and \*\*speculative growth (ARKK)\*\*.
\- \*\*The story + so-what:\*\* The market is bracing for \*\*higher rates for longer\*\*, selling rate-sensitive groups and buying defensives and energy. Semis are the one offense exception (\*\*SMH +1.3% rel yesterday\*\*), so Micron tonight decides whether they keep that bid.
\## 📈 Macro pulse (moves, not levels)
\- \*\*Yields fell across the curve, led by the front end:\*\* 2Y \*\*−5bp\*\* (4.84%), 10Y \*\*−3.5bp\*\* (5.22%), 30Y −2.5bp (5.57%). This \*\*bull steepener\*\* fits the lower October hike odds, though the 10Y is still above 5.2%.
\- \*\*Vol is calm.\*\* As of Tuesday's close the curve was in \*\*contango\*\* (VIX9D 14.21 < VIX 16.04), so there is no near-term fear premium even with Micron and payrolls ahead.
\- \*\*Oil is the counterweight:\*\* WTI \*\*+1.1%\*\*. With crude near $90, the inflation case for a hike stays alive.
\## 🚨 Event gate
\- \*\*Today:\*\* ADP, PCE and GDP are ✅ \*\*done\*\*. Still ahead: \*\*Chicago PMI 9:45 ET\*\* · \*\*Waller 3:00 PM\*\* (topic is payments, not policy) · \*\*Micron after the close\*\*.
\- \*\*Thu Oct 1:\*\* jobless claims 8:30 · \*\*ISM Manufacturing 10:00\*\* · Fed: Waller 10:00, \*\*Jefferson 1:30 PM ("U.S. Economy and Monetary Policy", the one to watch)\*\*, Bowman 3:00, Cook 3:30.
\- \*\*Fri Oct 2: T1 — September jobs report 8:30 ET.\*\* It is the swing factor for the October hike debate. Next after that: FOMC minutes Oct 7, CPI Oct 14.
\- \*\*Wildcards:\*\* Bullish if Micron guides strong, payrolls come in cool, or Iran talks progress. Bearish if Micron's outlook disappoints, payrolls run hot and put October back in play, or crude spikes.
\## 🧭 Regime read (generalized)
\- \*\*Near-term dealer gamma is negative on both indices, and spot sits just below the flip.\*\* SPY is \~764 vs a flip of \*\*\~765\*\*, with an unusually tight box between the \*\*761 put wall\*\* and the \*\*766 call wall\*\*. The structural full-chain flip is slightly higher at \~767. QQQ is \~738 vs a flip of \*\*\~740\*\*, with walls at \*\*730 / 745\*\*.
\- \*\*Below the flip (short gamma), dealers amplify moves,\*\* so breaks run further than usual. \*\*Above it (long gamma), moves get pinned toward the walls.\*\* A reclaim of SPY \~765–767 / QQQ \~740 would tip the tape toward stickier, range-bound trade.
\- Greeks are prior-session and will shift at the open. Going into Micron and payrolls in short gamma, event reactions are more likely to extend than fade.

A few weak months probably tell you very little about a sector fund you intend to hold for years. The more important question is whether you are comfortable with how concentrated SMH can become in its largest semiconductor names. I follow some of those names tactically through Moon but that short term volatility is not how I would judge the ETF thesis.

FII selling is crazy my portfolio was 5 percent at loss at the start of the week its 10 percent now 🛐 SMH

CSPX, EXUS, EIMI, SMH, QQQ, VALL, WVRA I know too much overlap so now DCA of 1500usd in VWRA and CSPX with 200usd in SMH

QQQM is an easy answer. SMH if you believe AI will continue to be a major theme (I think it will).

SMH! My DIL is very similar…. At all cost!

FSELX or SMH - just look at the AAR since the 80s

Interesting ETF. I like that it’s more spread out instead of 20% in NVDA like SMH.

I know about the various ETFs and Mutual Funds that people use to invest in semiconductors. I have held SMH in the past, but a while back I switched to SOXQ. There are numerous options (FSELX, SMH, SOXX, SOXQ, PSI, FTXL, XSD, etc.) but I want to ask about a particular one that has only been around since 2023:
CHPS (by Xtrackers)
The ER is nice at 0.15% but is that supposed to be that low, or is that more of an introductory ER that will jump later on (if that has been announced)?
Also, since it is ultimately owned by Deutsche Bank (who has a majority stake in DWS), is there any cause for concern as a US based investor?
I'm asking because while I like SOXQ, the newer CHPS has been on fire over the past 2 years, it includes broader exposure to the semiconductor market, and it is not heavily weighted in one company like NVidia (which FSELX and SMH are).

OP you just need S&P 500( I believe you have vanguard VOO) and then VWRA at 70/30 ratio. SMH was a good investment in the past decade or so but moving on forward you never know. Rare earths(remx) the same thing, does it have enough legs moving forward. I rather stay in VOO and VWRA for the next decade before dabbling into other sector ETF’s