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I agree, and I think that's why they are pushing the PC stuff so much, they can get cheaper financing through some of these deals.

Dude, the dog shit is in the private markets this time. Private credit, private equity… PC funds gated, aka, no liquidity. PE funds need IPO liquidity or constant flows. The moment liquidity becomes an issue, this whole thing will fall. Unlike past bubbles, the public markets are fine except for the chip stocks. It won’t matter though, S&P 500 is exposed.

I'm a long-time PlayStation fan. I noticed there are a number of high profile catalysts this year, starting with Spider-Man Brand New Day coming out this summer, which is projected to be a $2B movie. Then in November, GTA 6 finally comes out. Take-Two just confirmed this week they have an exclusive marketing deal with PlayStation, so the biggest video game launch in history is essentially a Sony exclusive, since it's not coming out on Switch 2 or PC and Xbox's install base is less than a third of PS5's.

Seems like this could be a big year for Sony. It's stock is currently near 52 week lows because it got hit by the memory shortage (same with Nintendo stock, so this is sector-wide risk). But once the memory shortage resolves itself, seems like 2nd half of the year looks very promising for Sony. Now is a buying opportunity?

As soon as a boom hits, everyone forgets about the lean times. From the 2018 crypto crash until AI came along, AMD and Nvidia were dead money. AMD and Intel were dead money as PC/laptop sales were on the decline. Memory makers were barely profitable. Flash and hard drive makers were profitable, but not lucrative.
All those sectors ramp up production when demand is high, then when demand drops and the market is saturated, they struggle, trying to unload inventory.
Just because tech will always be important doesn't mean it will always outperform.

I just ended up making my own thing that works with Obsidian Vault and Claude Code.
The way it works is I have an iOS shortcut that walks me through a few prompts when I make a trade. Symbol, strike, expiry, price, contracts, trade type. Maybe 20 seconds. That file syncs to my PC through Syncthing. At the end of the day I open Claude Code and have it process my inbox. It updates the journal, calculates net premium, handles cost basis on assignments, archives the logs. Takes maybe a minute of actual effort on my end.
The stack is Obsidian, Claude Code, iOS Shortcuts, Syncthing and Mobius Sync on iPhone. Everything except Claude Pro is free.
It’s not 100% finished, I’m still building out the roll shortcuts and need to write the processing rules for them. But the core cycle works well. CSP open through assignment through covered calls all processes correctly and the math is right.
Probably not for everyone since you need Claude Code which requires a Pro sub, but if you’re already paying for it anyway it’s worth looking at.
Happy to answer questions.

I agree... Ts is fucking annoying. I missed and easy $2/share move last week because of WeBull. The worst part is, I did not even know that it was liquidation only until I was about to take my entry (no warning on PC for some reason)... I had no time to switch over to RobinHood even if I wanted to, and the stock ran without me.

I’m a Microsoft shareholder, but I have to say there are 2 red flags the market is correct on:
- Xbox and PC side: this is horrible outcome, with dozens of billions of gaming studio acquisitions, they posted, like -5%. Obviously the long term strategy to control your living room is pretty dead right now.
- AI models: I think the actual Gemini-type of general model won’t be ready for another year per their roadmap. The foundation models are good right now for like transcribing teams meeting. But they will continue to lose the market share in all general purpose model side.
If the price stays around 350-400, I think it is a good price to wait for them to reinvent with AI for the business application which Microsoft is the current king.

You better build a sick ass balls to the wall AMD powered PC

All this talk about comparing this market to the .com era got me to wax poetic at lunch about how crazy and new everything felt. Like I was telling the story about my parents buying me my first PC, a 486, and bringing home from Electronics Boutique my first two PC games: X-Wing and Wolfenstein 3D. And Wolfenstein 3D had this shareware included of the first episode of a little game called "DOOM." And everything with the Internet just felt magical, from [Battle.net](http://Battle.net) being like our first real online game launcher of real value to ICQ and IRC and AOL Instant messenger...
And then I think in 2-3 decades kids will tell similar stories about AI porn and AI slop.

Thanks, was very fun talking to you. Best wishes getting some good deals for your PC build o7

For the big three:
Nvidia is 90% from AI data centers
AMD is 56% from AI data centers
Intel is 60% AI data centers
In terms of weight, this is about ~78-80% of their total revenue depending on the source. Other AI players might pull this closer down to 50% but I doubt you're buying processors from them.
Whatever number we land on between 50-90%, there is no way 10-50% can immediately double to compensate for an AI market crash. There just isn't enough general consumer demand.
Unfortunately an AI crash may temporarily decrease PC RAM, CPU, and GPU, SSD prices temporarily but in the long run it is more likely to significantly increase costs of even newer hardware by the time an AI crash happens. Even worse is if another crypto race begins and we saw first hand how GPU prices tripled in 2020-2023. Excluding RAM and SSD, right now is probably the cheapest CPU, motherboards, power supplies, coolers, and GPU will be for the next decade.
Pricing does vary for every component. If you're shopping for top end newest hardware, you will be burning a painful hole in your wallet. The previous year or two of hardware used typically has the best value for performance per dollar. It gets complicated.

Hi, this is my 8th grade research project on Qualcomm. *All figures based on FY2025 financials, Q2 FY2026 earnings/transcript, and TTM data. I know, I know "WSB is a casino - put the fries in the bag". But I need someone to rip thesis to shreds if I'm off.*
Qualcomm runs two segments:
* QCT (Qualcomm CDMA Technologies) - the chip division. Designs and sells Snapdragon SoCs for smartphones, automotive, IoT, and increasingly data center. 87% of revenue ($38.4B in FY2025).
* QTL (Qualcomm Technology Licensing) - licenses QCOM's patent portfolio to every manufacturer selling a 3G/4G/5G device on the planet. 13% of revenue ($5.6B) but prints \~72% EBIT margins with minimal capital requirements. It's essentially a toll booth on the global handset market.
# The Setup
QCOM trades at **17x forward earnings** in a semiconductor **peer group with a median closer to 35x**. That discount exists for two reasons:
1. China exposure. Market is worried about tomfoolery around export restrictions and tariffs while China represents \~46% of revenue.
|Region|Revenue FY2025|% Total|YoY|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|China|$20.3B|46%|\+14%|
|US|$10.5B|24%|\+9%|
|Korea|$9.5B|22%|\+19%|
2. Apple manufacturing and using its own modem chips for iPhone after using QCOM's since iPhone's release over disputes and lawsuits for the last decade that QCOM charged too much. [Link](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/after-painful-breakup-qualcomm-tries-to-replace-apple-with-ai/ar-AA22wbBd).
What the market has underpriced is that both headwinds are well-understood, the near-term pain is timing not structure, and two genuine growth vectors - automotive and data center - are accelerating simultaneously.
# Financial History: Recovery From a Brutal Cycle
|FY|Revenue|Net Income|FCF|EPS (GAAP)|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|2022|$44.2B|$12.9B|$6.8B|$11.37|
|2023|$35.8B|$7.2B|$9.8B|$6.42|
|2024|$39.0B|$10.1B|$11.2B|$8.97|
|2025|$44.3B|$5.5B\*|$12.8B|$5.01\*|
FY2023 was a post-COVID semiconductor hangover - smartphone demand collapsed, revenue fell 19%. The recovery has been clean: FY2025 revenue matched the FY2022 peak at $44B+, and FCF hit a record $12.8B.
The asterisk on FY2025 earnings is important. Reported net income of $5.5B dramatically understates the business. Operating income was $12.4B - the gap is a $6.1B one-time tax charge in Q4 FY2025 from IRS treatment of capitalized R&D expenses. Q2 FY2026 saw a mirror-image $5.7B non-cash tax benefit for the same reason. Both are excluded from non-GAAP. The operational business runs at roughly $12B annual operating profit and $12.8B FCF. Judge it on those.
# Margins Tell the Real Story
*On a TTM basis:*
|Metric|Value|
|:-|:-|
|Gross Margin|54.8%|
|Operating Margin|25.5%|
|Net Margin (GAAP)|22.3%|
|FCF Margin|18.0%|
|ROE|36.4%|
|ROA|17.4%|
55% gross margins and 36% ROE reflect a business with genuine pricing power - primarily from the licensing business and Snapdragon's dominant position in premium Android.
# The Cheapest Quality Name in Semis
|Metric|QCOM (TTM)|QCOM (Fwd)|Peer Median (Fwd)|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|PE|19.8x|17x|\~35x|
|EV/EBITDA|18.6x|\-|\~39x (TTM)|
|P/FCF|24.4x|\-|\~118x (TTM)|
|Div. Yield|1.0%|\-|\~0.3% (TTM)|
The forward PE of 17x uses consensus FY2026 EPS of $10.73 (non-GAAP, adjusted) against $182 share price. For context, NVDA trades at 28x forward on 75% expected revenue growth. ADI at 35x, TXN at 37x, AVGO at 38x - all growing modestly. AMD at 52x. MPWR at 66x
QCOM at 17x is being priced for a structurally impaired business. The data doesn't support that.
# The Two Known Headwinds (And Why They're Bounded)
# 1. Apple Modem Transition
Apple launched the iPhone 16e in early 2025 with its in-house modem, ending QCOM's monopoly on Apple silicon (and launched iPhone Air with new gen C1X modem). The company has a supply agreement through the current year at \~20% share of new iPhones. Beyond that, sell-side models put QCT product revenue from Apple at roughly $2B in FY2027 - down from a higher base but already widely reflected in consensus estimates. The QTL royalty stream (Apple pays to use QCOM's wireless patents regardless of whose modem is in the phone) is a separate negotiation and remains intact at a similar scale pending renegotiation.
The bottom line: the headwind is real, it's roughly $2-3B of QCT revenue at risk, and it's already in the estimate models.
# 2. China / Memory Dynamics
China is 46% of revenue - down from 62% in FY2023 but still the single biggest risk factor. The near-term pain, however, is more nuanced than simple tariff or share-loss fears.
AI data center demand for HBM memory is squeezing memory supply and raising prices. Chinese handset OEMs, facing higher component costs, are deliberately slowing builds and draining channel inventory rather than paying elevated memory prices. QCOM's chip shipments to China are significantly below actual consumer sell-through demand - the phones are still selling, OEMs are just not restocking.
Qualcomm has real-time visibility into this through its QTL licensing data (they see every phone that activates globally). Management during most recent earnings call think Q3 FY2026 as the inventory bottom with sequential growth returning in Q4. So what looks like Chinese demand dwindling very well could be a timing story and not a structural share-loss story.
# What's Actually Growing
# Automotive Is Underappreciated Compounding Machine
|Quarter|Auto Revenue|YoY Growth|
|:-|:-|:-|
|Q2 FY2025|$959M|\+59%|
|Q3 FY2025|$899M|\+68%|
|Q4 FY2025|$961M|\+61%|
|Q1 FY2026|$1.12B|\+61%|
|Q2 FY2026|$1.3B|\+38%|
Annualized run rate crossed $5B in Q2 FY2026 - management guided to exit FY2026 at $6B+. Q3 FY2026 automotive is guided to grow \~50% YoY, an acceleration despite the overall revenue headwinds.
The product transition from cockpit to full digital chassis (cockpit + connectivity + ADAS + autonomy) is what's driving this. Each generation-over-generation upgrade is the largest content-per-vehicle increase in QCOM's history - 3x CPU, 3x GPU, 12x NPU performance in Gen 5 vs Gen 4. BMW ADAS is in production. Bosch and Wave just announced partnerships. The automotive design win pipeline converts to revenue 2-4 years out, which means the orders being won today show up in FY2027-2028 revenue.
At $6B+ and growing 40-50%, automotive is approaching the size of QCOM's entire licensing business.
# IoT Is Getting an AI Tailwind
IoT grew 9% in Q2 FY2026, with industrial and consumer both contributing. The more interesting development: Qualcomm's IQ 10 platform (700 TOPS on-device AI, 18-core CPU) is generating design wins in robotics (Figure AI, Nura), industrial automation, and physical AI applications.
# The New Catalyst Is Data Center
**This is what the market isn't pricing yet**. From the Q2 FY2026 earnings call:
* Custom silicon engagement with a leading hyperscaler, initial shipments December 2026
* Management described it as margin accretive and a multi-generation engagement
* Strategy is both merchant silicon (selling to all comers) and custom ASIC (bespoke chips for specific hyperscalers)
* AlphaWave acquisition adds connectivity IP and custom ASIC execution capability
* Full roadmap reveal at Investor Day, June 24
The thesis is as AI inference scales, the data center disaggregates from monolithic GPU clusters into specialized compute like Google's TPUs or Amazon's Gravitron. Qualcomm's CPU architecture (which already leads on performance/watt in mobile, PC, and auto) translates directly to data center workloads with tight energy requirements. The company has spent years building this quietly. The December shipment is the first public proof point.
None of this is in consensus forward estimates. Analysts are modeling a furthering contracting QCOM (like -10% EPS and revenue growth over the next year). Any credible data center revenue is pure upside.
# Quietly Aggressive Share Buyback
In FY2025, Qualcomm returned $12.6B to shareholders on $12.8B of FCF - essentially all of it:
* $8.8B in buybacks (reducing share count from 1.14B toward \~1.07B)
* $3.8B in dividends (\~1% yield)
Q2 FY2026 alone saw $3.7B returned ($2.8B buybacks + $945M dividends), described as an "acceleration" of the capital return program. The Samsung multi-year deal (>70% Snapdragon share, reaffirmed for this year and next) gives management the revenue visibility to sustain this pace.
# Monte Carlo DCF: Scenario Analysis
*Starting from $12.8B base FCF, 1.072B shares, $195B Market Cap ($182 share price):*
|Scenario|Assumptions|P10 Mkt Cap|Median Mkt Cap|P90 Mkt Cap|P(Undervalued)|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|Bear|2% FCF growth, 11% WACC - China structural loss, no data center, Apple gone|$46B|$152B|$430B|40%|
|Base|8% growth, 10% WACC - inventory normalizes, auto grows, data center emerging|$76B|$223B|$565B|56%|
|Bull|15% growth, 9.5% WACC - data center contributes, agentic upgrade cycle, auto $10B+|$113B|$317B|$787B|72%|
|Transformative|22% growth, 9% WACC - platform company across auto + DC + edge AI + 6G|$133B|$455B|$1.29T|81%|
Two things stand out. First, the bear case downside is bounded - even in the worst modeled outcome, the median intrinsic value ($152B) is only 22% below today. A company producing $12.8B in FCF annually doesn't go to zero; the licensing business alone is worth $30-40B in a downside case. Second, the distribution is asymmetric - upside scenarios produce median outcomes 1.6x to 2.3x the current market cap, driven by FCF compounding in automotive and data center.
The bear scenario (40% probability it's undervalued) is the honest admission that risks are real of sustained China tariff escalation, memory-driven demand destruction that outlasts the inventory cycle, or data center execution failure and would all push toward that left tail.
# TL;DR
QCOM is a $195B market cap generating $12.8B in annual FCF - a 6.6% FCF yield - with its two largest headwinds (Apple, China inventory) well-understood, sized, and priced in. The business that remains after those headwinds is growing: automotive at $6B+ and accelerating, IoT expanding into physical AI, and a data center entry that isn't in anyone's model yet. 17x forward earnings against a peer group at 35x, you're being compensated to take on a headline risk that the management says is peaking. The June 24 Investor Day is the catalyst that closes the information gap on the data center opportunity. If QCOM is still trading at a 50% discount to peers in a year, I guess I'm wrong. Price Target $300-400 by end of 2027.
# Positions
$40K in shares @$190 and single 21Aug 220C for investor day
https://preview.redd.it/lawjds8dmjzg1.jpg?width=1206&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=081f3d01065b98e6b0a54a45a3533fa6a07cf53f

I think I remember seeing for bits shipped, severs and data centers only account for ~50%. That may be up and may be up for the next ~3 years. But mobile, PC, and consumer goods make up that other 50%.
So if capex for AI/server/data center falls off a cliff that is a huge chunk, about half. Can that other 50% prop it up, at all.
And yeah, I’m due for a new build myself and my kids are old enough that building their own PC from the case up is a constant discussion with them. I just can’t fucking justify these consumer prices. But what am going to do, wait 3 years. Ugh.

Yep, I hope everyone here is ready to get out if a "peak DRAM" downgrade announcement that mirrors the MU 2018 "Peak Memory" Morgan Stanley downgrade (when the cloud computing paradigm and Chinese smartphone demand both fell short of expectations, AMZN and MSFT cancelled their double-ordered DRAM to avoid shortages... fun times.)
In fact, it is almost certainly happening again that the hyperscalers are ordering more DRAM than they want to avoid getting caught in a shortage.
HBM ratios falling makes sense if we think there are double-buys again. HBM is incredibly hard to cancel (NCNR agreements over 5 years). But NAND orders are more standardized and easy to cancel, ripe for padding the order. LPDRAM is commonly over-ordered too, not just hyperscalers but smartphone and PC manufacturers who want "AI PCs/phones" and are shoving more memory into phones, and need to guarantee supply for holiday build cycles.
HBM didn't just fall a bit, it plummeted to 21% from 30% of FY2026 revenue. DRAM+NAND went up way more than HBM. HBM I consider more "true structural demand" because they are locked, complicated, 5-yr agreements. The other two categories are commodities, and commodities get overordered during shortages.

Parts of your response make me think you know what you’re talking about and other parts make you seem like a layman.
Local LLMs are becoming more viable, yes, but they are nowhere near as capable as the ones you can get from the major players. Not even close. Your average consumer is not close to running LLMs locally.
Inference has to get cheaper, and we cannot continue relying on huge GPU dies with insane amounts of HBM to do inference if we want it to be more viable.
Intels previous 14nm drama is not being replicated here. Yields are improving on 18A, there’s a whole deep dive available into what caused intel’s problems with die shrinks and the 10nm drama. That’s not for this post.
Intel will make money hand over fist selling good Xeon chips. As long as they can regain performance leadership from AMD and actually produce chips on 18A, hopefully 14A when the time comes, they’ll be fine. They don’t need to become Nvidia, they never will.
It honestly sounds like you’re a savvy person who probably is into PC gaming or something and you’re trying to mix your own experience fiddling around with what enterprise is actually doing.

I just have gotten burned on the boom and bust cycle of memory in the past with MU. I've been in and out over the years. But I don't know if this bust will be coming any time soon at this point. I also kinda feel like its going to be damn near impossible for anyone to buy a PC in the near future for a reasonable price as well.

Trivial question
Do they have Mac or PC for engineers?
I am interviewing there

Kuss an Oma. Von dem Geld für Gras könnte man schön Urlaub machen statt nur vor dem PC / Fernseher zu sitzen (Mehr ist bei dem Freizeitbudget anscheinend nicht drin) und bei Eigenanbau immer noch ab und an ein Tütchen genießen, ohne, dass man in der nicht mehr wirklich gesunden Größenordnung von 0,5g+ jeden Tag landet (Aber zumindest ehrlich 😄).
200€ Tanken aber keine Versicherung und kein Verschleiß - Entweder böser Rechenfehler, der dich irgendwann zwingt, Positionen steuerschädlich aufzulösen oder Kuss an Deine Eltern, dass sie den Unterhalt Deines Autos finanzieren i guess. Deutschlandticket + Fahrrad (z.B.) würden Dich 1.) deutlich weniger kosten und sich 2.) auch deutlich besser mit 150€ für Gras im Monat vertragen btw.
Soll jede\*r kiffen wie\`s beliebt, aber bei dem Konsumniveau ein Kraftfahrzeug zu bewegen ist ein Arschlochmove wegen Fremdgefährdung.

I'm working on a DD write-up about this.
My thinking is that GME/eBay could create a platform where users can trade, buy, and sell in-game items. Everything would be authenticated through the user’s console or PC gaming account, so ownership and legitimacy are verified directly through the publisher ecosystem.
The reason this probably hasn’t been implemented before is because publishers didn’t want to share revenue with a third-party marketplace. But what if platforms could offer flexible, case-by-case agreements where the publisher still receives the majority of the commission from every transaction?
At that point, there’s no real reason to keep skins and unique items locked inside a single game forever. These items could actually build historical and collectible value over time.
There’s an insane amount of money sitting in this idea. If done correctly, this could be huge.

I started investing basically all my extra money starting at 18 and went basically 100% VOO. By the time I was 23, I was up like $5000.
I got a big boy job and put 20% of each paycheck into my company’s 401k and I basically doubled my portfolio in like 6 months.
I worked like a dog for 5 years while paying for school and didn’t get to really enjoy any of my extra money because I was so focused on “investing”.
Im retrospect, my social life and mental health suffered unnecessarily and if I could go back I would use my money to upgrade my PC, take my gf out, go on vacations, and just enjoy my life fr.
Definitely not financial advice at all lol